Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System SAAPS Peter - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System – SAAPS Peter Wintoft 1) , Henrik Lundstedt 1) , Lars Eliasson 2) , Leif Kalla 2) , and Alain Hilgers 3) 1) Swedish Institute of Space Physics – Lund 2) Swedish Institute of Space Physics – Kiruna 3) ESA/ESTEC

SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System • ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC): – Development of AI Methods in Spacecraft Anomaly Predictions • Extension of the SPEE study • Two year project (April 1999 - June 2001) • Database and software

Purpose Develop tools for the analysis and prediction of spacecraft anomalies.

Approach • Statistical methods for the analysis. • Artificial intelligence (AI) based models, such as neural networks, for predictions. • Real time operation. • Database of space weather data and spacecraft anomalies.

The model SAAPS Database External FTP / J ava HTTP / Ja va DBT User databas e SAAM SAPM User User

SAAPS Data Sources GOES ACE Kp SEC keV el. Dst, pred LANL Kp, pred IRF-Lun SAAPS AE, pred S/C op. NSSD C ESA Anomaly OMNI Anomaly

SAAM Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis Module • Plotting tools • Statistics – Superposed epoch analysis – Correlations (linear and entropy based) – Cluster analysis – Pattern definition and search • Guidelines • Estimate best prediction model

SAPM Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Module • Neural network based prediction models • Real time forecast • Connects to SAAM for analysis • Anomaly index (?) and/or • Spacecraft dependent anomaly predictions

Anomaly index? S1 S2 S3 NSSDC S1 1.00 0.02 0.03 0.03 S2 0.02 1.00 0.04 0.04 S3 0.02 0.02 1.00 0.11 NSSDC 0.02 0.02 0.10 1.00

Σ Kp based predictions Kp(t-8*24h) Σ Kp(t-8d) A(t+1d) Σ Kp(t) Kp(t) • Satellite specific model (geostationary) • Fraction of correct classifications is 0.65 on balanced test set

Mutual information between average Σ Kp and ESD anomaly data

Mutual information between Σ Kp and ESD anomaly data

SAAPS part of RWC-Sweden

Issues • SAAPS Applets – communicate over port 2001 => Firewall problems. – use of RMI for data access => RMI might be a problem on specific OS. • SAAPS uses non-standard database engine.

Future • SAAPS database and models will be merged with the IRF-GIC Pilot Project. • A standard database engine will be used (MySQL). • More development on the anomaly prediction models are necessary.

IRF SAAPS Server http://www.lund.irf.se/saaps/ ESTEC SAAPS Server http://em450.wm.estec.esa.nl:6668/saaps/

New ACE data set • A new ACE data set will soon be released – Merged MAG and SWEPAM data – 64 second resolution • http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/index.html

Lund Dst model www.lund.irf.se/rwc/dst/models/ - Matlab - Java

Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System SAAPS Peter - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System SAAPS Peter Wintoft 1) , Henrik Lundstedt 1) , Lars Eliasson 2) , Leif Kalla 2) , and Alain Hilgers 3) 1) Swedish Institute of Space Physics Lund 2) Swedish Institute of Space Physics

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