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Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool The Commonwealth: A Strong and Buoyant Economy Growth in Real Output Massachusetts vs. U.S. 2009 - 2017 Q1&Q2 4.5% The economy of

  1. Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  2. The Commonwealth: A Strong and Buoyant Economy

  3. Growth in Real Output Massachusetts vs. U.S. 2009 - 2017 Q1&Q2 4.5% The economy of Massachusetts continues 4.0% 3.8% to outpace the U.S. 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% -0.2% -0.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017:I&II U.S. Massachusetts Source: MassBenchmarks Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  4. Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally-Adjusted Massachusetts 2008-2017 (August) (% = Annual Growth Rate) 3,600,000 3,526,200 355,600 Jobs added in the Commonwealth 3,500,000 3,463,700 since 2009 … +11.2% 3,410,800 3,400,000 3,366,700 1.8% 1.6% 3,300,000 3,274,200 3,261,700 3,255,200 1.3% 3,217,300 2.8% 3,184,800 3,200,000 3,170,600 0.6% - 1.3 % 1.2% 3,100,000 1.0% 0.4% - 2.8 % 3,000,000 2,900,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Massachusetts Department of Labor and Workforce Development Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  5. Massachusetts Civilian Unemployment Rate 2009 - 2017 (August) 9.5% Massachusetts is now at near “Full Employment” with an 8.5% 8.3% 8.3% extremely tight labor market in most occupations 7.5% 7.2% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 5.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (August) Source: Massachusetts Department of Labor and Workforce Development Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  6. Real Average Weekly Wage - Private Industry Massachusetts 2001-2017 Q1 $1,450 $1,432 With a tight labor market, real average wages are finally on the rise … but still less than 10% higher than nearly a decade ago $1,393 $1,400 $1,355 $1,341 $1,350 $1,307 $1,306 $1,291 $1,300 $1,266 $1,256 $1,250 $1,230 $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Massachusetts Department of Labor and Workforce Development Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  7. Greater Boston at the Center of the Economic Boom

  8. Five-County Greater Boston Total Non-Farm Employment 2008-2017 (March) 2,450,000 Since 2010, Greater Boston has experienced an increase of nearly 284,000 jobs – 83% of the Massachusetts total 2,400,587 2,400,000 2,371,312 2,350,000 2,313,473 2,300,000 2,263,550 2,250,000 2,224,445 2,194,437 2,190,690 2,200,000 2,144,854 2,150,000 2,131,582 2,116,982 2,100,000 2,050,000 2,000,000 2008 (Mar) 2009 (Mar) 2010 (Mar) 2011 (Mar) 2012 (Mar) 2013 (Mar) 2014 (Mar) 2015 (Mar) 2016 (Mar) 2017 (Mar) Source: Massachusetts Department of Labor and Workforce Development Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  9. The Challenge of a Strong Economy • A booming economy is extremely attractive to workers seeking excellent job opportunities • As such, a booming economy retains workers who already live here and attracts many more • But if the housing stock is limited and growing too slowly, housing demand outstrips housing supply pushing up prices and rents … well above the increase in average income • Those who cannot afford higher priced housing ultimately seek it elsewhere … often in communities farther and farther away from the urban core • This not only begins to push up prices in what were lower priced communities, but adds to the transportation challenge in the region • This is Greater Boston today! • The only solution is to find a way for housing supply to complement housing demand Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  10. Homes Sales Rising in Greater Boston – although stalled in 2017

  11. Annual Number of Sales of Single-Family Homes in Five- County Greater Boston Region, 2000-2017 (Est.) Since 2011, annual home sales up by + 33% but stalled in 2017 likely due to extremely limited supply for sale and high prices facing younger households who are delaying homeownership 40,000 35,444 34,183 35,000 33,310 33,317 32,485 32,064 31,935 31,000 30,170 29,792 28,884 30,000 27,927 27,372 25,886 23,482 23,534 25,000 22,787 22,635 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Est.) Source: The Warren Group Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  12. Annual Number of Condominium Sales in Five-County Greater Boston Region, 2000-2017 (Est.) 30,000 26,127 25,000 23,194 22,335 20,615 19,093 20,000 18,910 18,108 18,134 17,798 17,698 16,844 16,875 16,752 16,027 15,437 14,980 14,471 15,000 12,269 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Est.) Source: The Warren Group Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  13. Annual Number of Sales of Homes in Two-Unit and Three-Unit Structures in Five-County Greater Boston Region, 2000-2017 (Est.) 6,000 5,539 5,209 5,000 4,648 3,977 3,791 4,000 3,651 3,431 3,374 3,351 3,328 3,216 3,110 3,075 2,886 3,000 2,575 2,441 2,430 2,101 2,000 1,622 1,512 1,482 1,396 1,388 1,374 1,352 1,331 1,305 1,268 1,142 933 1,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Est.) Two-Unit Three-Unit Source: The Warren Group Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  14. Municipal Leaders in Single-Family Home Sales in Greater Boston, 2010 - 2017 (Est.) Single-Family Home Sales rising the fastest in outlying lower income housing markets 2017 (Estimate) 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Brockton 934 (1) 983 (1) 772 (1) 619 (3) 660 (2) 659 (2) 552 (2) Plymouth 784 (2) 845 (2) 713 (2) 624 (2) 617 (4) 582 (3) 512 (3) Lowell 608 (3) 597 (7) 490 (9) 473 (6) 425 (8) 419 (8) 411 (4) Framingham 600 (4) 603 (6) 657 (4) 604 (4) 627 (3) 498 (5) 408 (6) Lynn 592 (5) 681 (3) 602 (5) 473 (6) 418 (9) 394 (11) 356 (8) Newton 562 (6) 633 (5) 670 (3) 634 (1) 691 (1) 671 (1) 582 (1) Weymouth 510 (7) 647 (4) 579 (7) 461 (7) 500 (6) 450 (7) 340 (9) Quincy 500 (8) 553 (8) 592 (6) 547 (5) 576 (5) 507 (4) 394 (7) Methuen 430 (9) 505 (10) 506 (8) 388 (10) 352 (18) 370 (12) 304 (13) Wellesley 424 (10) 353 (24) 396 (15) 357 (15) 364 (14) 415 (9) 329 (10) Haverhill 424 (10) 536 (9) 470 (10) 352 (16) 357 (16) 346 (14) 325 (11) Source: The Warren Group Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  15. Municipal Leaders in Condominium Sales in Greater Boston, 2010 - 2017 (Est.) Condo Sales strongest in the Urban Core 2017 (Estimate) 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Boston 1,702 (1) 2,043 (1) 1,785 (1) 1,632 (1) 1,827 (1) 1,864 (1) 1,575 (1) South Boston 764 (2) 743 (3) 709 (3) 708 (3) 721 (3) 692 (3) 527 (3) Cambridge 716 (3) 777 (2) 710 (2) 751 (2) 937 (2) 918 (2) 790 (2) Quincy 560 (4) 486 (6) 421 (6) 327 (9) 328 (10) 340 (8) 198 (13) Brookline 528 (5) 527 (4) 557 (4) 483 (4) 540 (4) 635 (4) 476 (4) Dorchester 470 (6) 449 (8) 415 (7) 447 (6) 374 (9) 352 (7) 340 (5) Somerville 442 (7) 491 (5) 400 (8) 471 (5) 430 (5) 450 (5) 340 (5) Jamaica Plain 416 (8) 431 (9) 453 (5) 401 (7) 411 (6) 368 (6) 302 (6) Newton 396 (9) 340 (13) 348 (13) 341 (8) 378 (8) 322 (10) 254 (7) Haverhill 392 (10) 358 (11) 349 (12) 304 (13) 216 (19) 207 (17) 145 (16) Source: The Warren Group Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  16. Homeownership

  17. Homeownership Rate Boston Metro Area (2005-2017, Q1 & Q2) 68.0% 66.3% 66.3% 66.1% 66.0% Why? 66.0% 65.5% 65.5% 64.8% 64.7% 64.0% 63.0% 62.9% 62.0% 60.0% 60.0% 59.2% 58.9% 58.0% 56.0% 54.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017: QI&II Source: U.S. Census Bureau Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  18. Homeownership Rate for Prime Age Households 2000-2015 Homeownership Rates plummeting for Young Households Age 25-34 Age 35-44 2000 40.7% 67.2% 2010 36.2% 65.0% 2015 30.0% 58.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Northeastern School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs  https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/policyschool

  19. Home Prices

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