The Challenge LGNZ 6 June 2014 100 % Cyber Attacks Data - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Challenge LGNZ 6 June 2014 100 % Cyber Attacks Data - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Challenge LGNZ 6 June 2014 100 % Cyber Attacks Data Indicative National Risk Matrix Severe Weather Hazardous Spill Failed Large Pacific rural flood Global Financial Asia 10 % State Crisis Interstate Cyber Attacks Conflict

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SLIDE 1

The Challenge

LGNZ

6 June 2014

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SLIDE 2

Annual Likelihood Relative Consequences

0.01 % 0.1 % 1 % 10 % 100 % Very Large eruption Large urban flood Auckland Eruption

Sustained Drought Major Pest/Disease

  • utbreak

Terrorism Major Infrastructure failure Systemic Failure

Moderate Earthquake

Food Safety

Indicative National Risk Matrix

Minor Catastrophic Major Moderate

Large rural flood Severe Weather Very large tsunami Geophysical Meteorological Biological Major Transport Accident Technological Social Other

Human Pandemic Global Conflict

Failed Pacific State Conflict Asia Interstate Conflict Sovereignty Threat To NZ

Cyber Attacks infrastructure Cyber Attacks Data

Global Financial Crisis

Hazardous Spill

Moderate Tsunami

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SLIDE 3

‘Tail-Risk’ from Geological Hazards

Impacts (fatalities) Frequency

Events per year Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database –www.emdat.be

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 10

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SLIDE 4

What should we be preparing for ?

Natural Hazard Event Likelihood Losses Alpine fault ‐ M8 earthquake

30% >$10bn?

Central North Island major eruption

almost certain >$1bn

Taranaki eruption

20% ~$1bn?

Hikurangi subduction M8+ EQ and tsunami

10% >$10bn

Hope fault M7.2 earthquake

50% ~$1bn?

South America- M9+ EQ & NZ tsunami

50% >$1bn?

Taupo region major eruption

10% >$10bn

Taupo region volcanic unrest

30%? >$1bn?

Auckland volcanic eruption

5% >>$10bn

NZ equake sequence like 1929-1942

50% >$10bn

In next 50 years (2012 estimates)

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SLIDE 5

How do we manage natural hazard risk?

  • Avoid exposure
  • Control impact
  • Transfer or pool
  • Accept residual

More explicit thought about trade-offs is needed

What are the Options?

  • Land use
  • Design and build
  • Insurance (capital for recovery)
  • Fix post-event; Emergency

response capability

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SLIDE 6

Loss $

Risk Management Approaches

AVOID

exposure

CONTROL

impact

TRANSFER ACCEPT

Risk Reduction through Land Use Planning Risk Reduction through Building Design/Controls Recovery funding through Insurance/Capital Markets Adaptive Capacity - Response and Recovery arrangements

Frequency

  • V. Low

High

ACCEPT

Adaptive Capacity - Response and Recovery arrangements

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SLIDE 7

The prior question: What is the objective?

  • Save lives?
  • Preserve or rebuild buildings and infrastructure?
  • Maintain or restore economic activity?
  • Maintain community cohesion?
  • Minimise social disruption?
  • And, additionally, what price heritage?

Each has different costs and different policy and financial implications

Management of Catastrophe Risk

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SLIDE 8

Technically buildings achieved “good performance” Many judged uneconomic to repair

Informed choice or unwelcome surprise?

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SLIDE 9

Chile New Zealand New Zealand Chile

Informed choice or unwelcome surprise?

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SLIDE 10

Community Well- Being

How do we find the right balance?

Assure Life-Safety Assure Amenity Assure Resilience?

Spending on Risk Reduction

Level of Affordability for … Community 1 …Community 2 …Community n …Community 3

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SLIDE 11

Thank You

LGNZ

6 June 2014