Concurrent Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Case study 2 -

Concurrent Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH in Kamchatkan Peninsula

SECOND VAAC Best Practices Seminar Montreal, 12 to 13 June 2012 Toshiyuki Sakurai Tokyo VAAC / JMA

Contents

 Overview (Eruption details)  Review (Tokyo VAAC's reaction)  Discussions

 Visible / Discernable Ash  Collaboration  Confidence Level(Prediction methodology)

 Summary

Overview (Eruption details)

Location and Eruption time

 Eruptions of Mt.KLIUCHEVSKOI and Mt.SHEVELUCH  in the part of North of Kamchatkan Peninsula  between October 27th and 29th in 2010

Record of the eruptions

 KLIUCHEVSKOI

 Oct 27,2010

1059Z Detection of ash cloud on the satellite imagery at KLIUCHEVSKOI 1059Z FL210 by MTSAT imagery 2010Z FL230 by the report from KEMSD(Received 2024Z)

 Oct 28,2010

0359Z-0459Z Ash cloud is indistinguishable from it of SHEVELUCH Ceasing emissions from crater 0619Z Final VAA for KLIUCHEVSKOI(Handover to SHEVELUCH)

 SHEVELUCH

 Oct 27,2010

2231Z Eruption at SHEVELUCH 2231Z FL230 by the report from KEMSD(Received 2327Z) FL300-FL330 by the report from KVERT,PAWU and AVO(Received 22-23UTC)

 Oct 28,2010

0359-0459Z Detection of ash cloud on the satellite imagery at SHEVELUCH Ash cloud is indistinguishable from it of KLIUCHEVSKOI 0459Z FL250 by MTSAT imagery 0615Z VAA for Ash clouds including it from KLIUCHEVSKOI

Overview of satellite imagery

 The two volcanoes erupted at the same time.  The ash clouds was observed over a large region.

Movies: 27/0532Z – 30/2359Z

Review (Tokyo VAAC's reaction)

Review of initial reaction

 KLIUCHEVSKOI(KLIU),SHEVELUCH(SHEV)

 (KLIU) VAA191 27/1358Z(Img 1259Z) FL210 <- Satellite(IR1&GPV)  (KLIU) VAA192 27/1755Z(Img 1659Z) FL220 <- Satellite(IR1&GPV)  (KLIU) VAA193 27/2051Z(Img 1959Z) FL230 <- Report(Video)  (KLIU) VAA194 27/2350Z(Img 2259Z) FL230 <- Report(Video)  (SHEV) VAA097 27/2336Z(Text only) FL230 <- Report(Seismic)  (SHEV) VAA098 28/0007Z(Text only) FL300 <- Report(Unknown)

Indistinguishable ash clouds

 KLIUCHEVSKOI(KLIU),SHEVELUCH(SHEV)  (SHEV) VAA099 28/0615Z(Img 0459Z) FL250 <- SATELLITE(IR1&GPV)  (KLIU) VAA195 28/0619Z(Text only) Final VAA

• It was difficult to distinguish the ash clouds between KLIUCHEVSKOI

and SHEVELUCH.

• Tokyo VAAC continued issuing the VAA for SHEVELUCH, because

SHEVELUCH was more active than KLIUCHEVSKOI.

• We need to discuss how to deal with eruptions at the same time.

Discussions

• Visible/Discernable Ash
• Collaboration
• Confidence Level(Prediction methodology)

Visible/Discernable Ash

Collaboration with Volcano Observatory

 KLIUCHEVSKOI

 27/1059Z FL210 by MTSAT imagery(IR1 & GPV)  27/2010Z FL230 by the e-mail(Video) from KEMSD(27/2024Z)

 SHEVELUCH

 27/XXXXZ FL330 by e-mail(Unknown) from KVERT(27/2202Z)  27/2231Z FL230 by e-mail(Seismic) from KEMSD(27/2327Z)  272338/28053842 FL300 by SIGMET from PAWU(27/2342Z)  272338/28053842 FL300 by e-mail(About SIGMET) from AVO(27/0002Z)  0359-0459Z Ash cloud is detected on satellite imagery

Ash cloud is indistinguishable from it of KLIUCHEVSKOI

Volcanological observatories in the area of Tokyo VAAC

KVERT (Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team)

SVERT (Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team) KEMSD (Kamchatkan Experimental & Methodical Seismological Deparatment) PHIVOLCS (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology)

Record of handover

 Record of VAA for SHEVELUCH

 Tokyo:(SHEV) VAA099 28/0615Z(Img 0459Z) FL250  Anchorage:(SHEV) VAA001 28/0815Z(Text only)

RMK:PLEASE SEE FVFE01 RJTD 28/0615 ISSUED BY TOKYO VAAC THAT DESCRIBES CONDITIONS NEAR THE ANCHORAGE VAAC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

 Tokyo:(SHEV) VAA100 28/1149Z(Img 1059Z) FL250

Tokyo VAAC sent FAX Sheets to ask the request of handover to Anchorage VAAC.

 Anchorage:(SHEV) VAA002 28/1310Z(Img 1310Z) FL250

Anchorage VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in their responsibility area.

 Tokyo:(SHEV) VAA101 28/1817Z(Img 1659Z) FL250

Tokyo VAAC issued VAA for the ash cloud in our responsibility area.

Tokyo:VAA100 Anchorage:VAA002

Necessity of handover

 Limit of the area MTSAT imagery using Tokyo VAAC

(65N-35S,70E-170W)

 Limit of the area of dispersion model using Tokyo VAAC

(75N-75S,70E-140W)

• Tokyo VAAC plan to develop new global dispersion model.

 Limit of the field of view of MTSAT (70N-70S,70E-140W)

• We can’t track ash clouds out of the field of view of geostationaly satellite.

HRS(Handover Request Sheet)

 Tokyo VAAC uses the form fax-

sheets in Japanese and English for handover requests.

 Tokyo VAAC sends HRS with

VAA, VAG, VAGI and other information.

VAGI(Not ICAO Product)

shows latest aea of ash clouds.

OBS VA CLD(Initial ash polygon)

Excerpt from BP/1 Tokyo VAACs approach

Dispersion and trajectory model

In the case of Crater height >= 3000m Bottom of ash column = Crater height In the case of Crater height < 3000m and Estimated height >= 10000m Bottom of ash column = 5000m In the Case of Crater height < 3000m and Estimated height <10000m Bottom of ash column =1000m Top of ash column = Estimated height Bottom of ash column

How to determine ash particles for dispersion and trajectory model in Tokyo VAAC ? Initial ash particles are observed ash boundary. A ash column is inverted pyramid shape. Inverted pyramid shape.

Prediction result

Yellow low – FCST FCST VA CLD VA CLD +6 HR (Fore +6 HR (Forecast polyg polygon) Blue Blue – Obser Observed ash ash cloud cloud by by satel satellite.

Observation and Prediction

Yellow low – FCST FCST VA CLD VA CLD +6 HR (Fore +6 HR (Forecast polyg polygon) Blac Black – Obser Observed ash ash cloud cloud by by satel satellite

In In this this case case, the estim the estimated heig height may be may be low, low, so so we we upd updated the heigh the height to to FL25 FL250 in in next advi next advisory.

OBS VA CLD for Confidence levels

Yellow low – FCST FCST VA CLD VA CLD +6 HR (Fore +6 HR (Forecast polyg polygon) Thin Thin black black – Obser Observed ash ash cloud cloud by by satel satellite Thic Thick black black – Prediction & iction & Observation rvation

Whe hen there there are are a a lot of lot of mete meteorological cloud clouds, we we nee need to to cons consider part parts cove covered with them with them.

OBS VA CLD(T=0) for Confidence levels

Confidence fidence Level Level Criteria f teria for T=0 T=0 High (meets all 3)

• More than 2/3 of polygon contains

identified/discernible ash cloud , and

• Ash cloud edges( with respect to polygon) mostly

(2/3) discernable, and

• plume height and/or ash cloud top reported or

measured (objectively) (e.g., Radar, Lidar, satellite, etc) Medium (meets 2)

• Between 1/3 and 2/3 of polygon contains

identifiable/discernible ash cloud.

• Between one third and two thirds of ash cloud’s

edges discernable

• Plume height and/or ash cloud top estimated from

recent data (<12 hours) Low

• Less than1/3 of polygon contains

identiable/discernable ash cloud.

• Ash cloud edges uncertain.
• Plume height and/or ash cloud top unconfirmed

Excerpt from BPS/1

Part covered with weather cloud

Thic Thick black black line line – Prediction & iction & Observation rvation Aqua Aqua line line – Occup Occupied area area

Difficult t to determine t the o

• ccupied a

area

Confidence Levels

More More than 2/3 than 2/3 of

• f polyg

polygon conta contains ident identified ash ash cloud cloud ->High

High

Betw Between one

• ne third

third and and two two third thirds of

• f ash

ash cloud cloud's edges edges discernable ernable ->Mid

Mid

Ash cloud Ash cloud top top repor reported or

• r measu

measured objec

• bjectively ->High

High

In In this this case case, Conf Confidence Level Level defin defines as as Mid. Mid.

Thic Thick black black line line – Prediction & iction & Observation rvation Aqua Aqua line line – Occup Occupied area area

Confidence Levels

In this case, Confidence Level define as Mid.

Black Black line line – High confid High confidence ce Blue Blue line line – Med Med confid confidence Red Red line line – Low Low confic conficence

App Approach of

• f Darwi

Darwin VAAC for Conf VAAC for Confidence Level Levels

The The confi confidence leve level of

• f a

a poly polygon edge edge

App Approach of

• f Darwi

Darwin VAAC for Conf VAAC for Confidence Level Levels

Black Black line line – High confid High confidence ce Blue Blue line line – Med Med confid confidence Red Red line line – Low Low confidcence dcence

Summary

Summary

 Overview (Eruption

Overview (Eruption Details) Details)

 Geostationaly satellite imagery is a powerful tool to monitor ash

clouds as the imagery can get routinely.

 Review

Review (Tokyo (Tokyo VAAC's VAAC's reaction) reaction)

 We need to discuss how to deal with eruptions at the same time.

 Discussions

Discussions

 Visible /

Visible / Discernabl Discernable Ash Ash

 Split window technique is most reliable method to figure out ash

clouds in a wide distribution.

 Forecasters can improve the quality of recognition to analyze

IR/NIR/VIS imagery and to loop imagery.

Summary

 Discussions

Discussions

 Collabor

Collaborat atio ion

 Tokyo VAAC receives email about eruptions from overseas

volcanological authorities. Unfortunately, some volcanological authorities are not on duty during the night.

 We mainly use formed fax-sheet in Japanese and English for

communication between the adjacent VAACs.  Confiden

Confidence ce Level(Pre Level(Predi dicti ction

• n methodolo

methodology gy)

 When there are a lot of meteorological clouds, we need to consider

parts covered with them. In operation of areal confidence, We might be difficult to fit the criteria of occupied area.