Heat Program Challenge: Risk Perception Source: NOAA, ADHS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 12, 2023 218 likes •515 views

NOAA/National Weather Service Heat Program Challenge: Risk Perception Source: NOAA, ADHS Challenge: Risk Perception Source: NOAA, ADHS Challenge: Visual Threat Challenge: Visual Threat Before Heat Wave After Heat Wave 75 F 115 F

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NOAA/National Weather Service

Heat Program

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Challenge: Risk Perception

Source: NOAA, ADHS

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Challenge: Risk Perception

Source: NOAA, ADHS

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Challenge: Visual Threat

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Before Heat Wave After Heat Wave

75 °F 115 °F

Challenge: Visual Threat

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Challenge: Arizona is Hot!

PHX averages ~110 days of 100+ °F each year. Normal high temperature for July is 106 °F. Average 8 days with a low temperature of 90+ °F.

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Challenge: Getting Hotter

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Challenge: Getting Hotter

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Challenge: Getting Hotter

Last Record Low: Aug. 28, 2008

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To address these challenges, NOAA/NWS conducts a number of activities and offers a number of services.

– Temperature Forecast

Includes HeatRisk product

– Social Media – Partner (Email) Briefings – Official Alerts -- “Biggest Bells” to Ring – Extensive Partner Interaction

NOAA/NWS Heat Services

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Weather.Gov/Phoenix

Temperature Forecasts

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1-mile by 1-mile Grid ~800 in Phoenix Area 3,783 in Maricopa County 47,083 in Arizona

Temperature Forecasts

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Temperature Forecasts

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https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/heatrisk/

HeatRisk

A flexible Framework
Puts NWS forecast high & low

temperatures into a climatological context based on location & time of year.

Considers duration of expected

heat.

Humidity is indirectly accounted

for in elevated low temperatures.

Official method for determining

when & where to issue official heat alerts across the Western U.S.

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How Does HeatRisk Work?

Red (High)

~95th Percentile

Yellow (Low)

CDC Collaboration

Orange (Mod)

Seasonal Split

Similar Process for Low Temperatures

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How Does HeatRisk Work?

Yellow Orange Red HeatRisk High Temperature Thresholds – July 4

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How Does HeatRisk Work?

Thresholds Official NWS Forecast

(High & Low Temperature)

NWS HeatRisk

None Low Mod High Very High

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HeatRisk - 2019

Alpine Flagstaff Phoenix

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Heat & Drought

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The NOAA/NWS HeatRisk product is used to determine our messaging tone and actions across Arizona.

– Verbiage in social media/briefing material – When & where to issue official heat alerts

NOAA/NWS Heat Policy

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NWS Heat Alerts

Excessive Heat Warning

– High Confidence (80%+) – HeatRisk of High (red) or Very High (magenta) – High/Very High Impact Level (e.g., increased morbidity) Expected – May be preceded by “Excessive Heat Watch” (confidence 50%)

Heat Advisory

– High Confidence (80%+) – For AZ, High Elevation Areas Only (~5,000’+) – HeatRisk of Moderate (orange) – Moderate/High Impact Level Expected

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Frequency of Heat Alerts

Heat Warnings (2017-2019) Heat Advisory (2017-2019)

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Nearly 350 (250) daily MaxT

(MinT) temperature records were tied and almost 800 (800) were broken across the West.

Impacts: power disruptions,

flight cancelations, and an increase in heat morbidity/mortality.

In Maricopa County, AZ alone

(location of Phoenix), roughly 50 heat-related deaths

ccurred.

Historical SW June 2017

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HeatRisk & NWS Alerts

Note Excellent Coordination/Consistency Across the Southwest!

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HEAT ADVISORY

Historical SW June 2017

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Partner Usage of HeatRisk

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Messaging Heat

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This summer will be hot! There will be extreme heat! Be prepared!

Paul.Iniguez@noaa.gov | Weather.Gov