T HI NKI NG A BOUT C ONSERVATI ON P ARADI GMS . D EVASTATION IN THE D - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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T HI NKI NG A BOUT C ONSERVATI ON P ARADI GMS . D EVASTATION IN THE D - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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N EW P ARADI GM FOR C ONSERVATI ON F ARM F OU ON F OR OUNDATI ON ORUM Jonathan Coppess Gard rdner r Ag Policy Pro rogra ram November 1, 2017 T HI NKI NG A BOUT C ONSERVATI ON P ARADI GMS . D EVASTATION IN THE D UST B OWL E RA

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SLIDE 1

NEW PARADI GM FOR CONSERVATI ON

FARM FOU

OUNDATI ON ON FOR ORUM

Jonathan Coppess

Gard rdner r Ag Policy Pro rogra ram

November 1, 2017

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SLIDE 2

w w w .farm doc.illinois.edu

THI NKI NG ABOUT CONSERVATI ON PARADI GMS.

DEVASTATION IN THE DUST BOWL ERA

  • Homesteading and WWI expansion for wheat in the Plains
  • Depression + Dust = Conservation + Acreage Reduction + Price Support

EROSION IN THE TARGET PRICE ERA

  • Chasing high prices and exports, from fencerow-to-fencerow
  • Crisis + Erosion = target prices + CRP + compliance

NUTRIENT LOSS IN THE RFS ERA

  • Yields (GE) + Acres (RFS & high prices) = nutrient loss
  • Working lands challenges on a massive scale; EQIP

, CSP , RCPP …?

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SLIDE 3

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BASELI NE CHALLENGES FOR FARM BI LL

  • Budget rules and

CBO baseline creates ‘zero-sum’ policy effort.

  • Adding funds to
  • ne title must

come out of

  • thers.
  • Expanding CRP

acres would require offsets, possibly working lands.

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

CBO June 2017 Baseline

CRP CSP EQIP Crop Insurance Conservation Total Title 1

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SLIDE 4

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CONSERVATI ON AND FARM (RI SK) PERSPECTI VES

  • $1,000.00
  • $500.00

$0.00 $500.00 $1,000.00

Corn: Per-Acre Revenue, Cost and Returns (Central IL)

Crop Rev

  • Gov. Pmt

Insurance Direct Costs Power Costs Overhead Costs Land Costs Farmer Return

 Lower crop prices + costs slow to adjust = farm income squeeze.  Conservation risks being a “nice to have” item when times are good, abandoned in the squeeze.  Example: cover crops at $25 to $30 per acre.  Nutrient loss requires conservation that is relevant to farming, risk & finances.

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THI NKI NG ABOUT A NEW PARADI GM

  • Farming’s twin

risks.

  • Conservation

and relevance.

  • I n a baseline-

challenged (zero-sum) effort.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Bushels per acre $ per bushel

Corn Prices and Yields

Yield Projected Harvest 5yr OMA-MYA Reference Loan

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SLIDE 6

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THANK YOU!

Jonathan Coppess

Gard rdner r Agri ricult ure re Policy Pro rogra ram

University of I llinois jwcoppes@illinois.edu