T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t Ca n F o rmula - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t Ca n F o rmula E e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ? #LowCVP15 T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t Ca n F o rmula E e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ? T ra nspo
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
Ce line Cluze l – E le me nt E ne rg y A study c o mmissio ne d b y the L
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
Pr
e fue lling infr astr uc tur e for low e mission ve hic le s will be ke y to me e ting the UK’s e mission r e duc tion tar ge ts Drive rs fo r c ha ng e in the tra nspo rt syste m:
Re ne wa b le E ne rg y a nd F ue l Qua lity Dire c tive s
U re g ula tio ns o n NO2 a nd Pa rtic ula te Ma tte rs, E URO spe c ific a tio ns T he re q uire d c ha ng e s in ve hic le te c hno lo g ie s a nd fue l ha ve a lre a dy b e e n se t o ut thro ug h pub lishe d ro a dma ps (se e rig ht) T he c o rre spo nding re fue lling / re c ha rg ing infra struc ture ne e ds ha ve no t ye t b e e n q ua ntifie d a nd this is the ma in fo c us o f this study T he o utputs will info rm the na tio na l po lic y fra me wo rks sub mitte d b y E U Me mb e r Sta te s b y Oc to b e r 2016 in a nswe r to the ‘ Cle a n Po we r fo r T ra nspo rt’ E U Dire c tive
Source: Auto Council and LowCVP
Vehicle roadmaps Transport fuel roadmaps
Source: Auto Council and Element Energy for the LowCVP
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
Obje c tive s
stimate the infr astr uc tur e ne e ds and bar r ie r s for de ployme nt o f e le c tric ,
hydro g e n a nd g a s re fue lling sta tio ns to 2050, inc luding impa c t o n upstre a m distrib utio n
valuate the c hange in r e fue lling infr astr uc tur e of ‘c onve ntional’ liquid fue ls (g a so line a nd die se l b le nds, L
PG) a nd po ssib le future fue ls (liq uid a ir, me tha no l, E 85)
e c omme ndations for de live r y of infr astr uc tur e de ployme nt, b o th a t
na tio na l a nd lo c a l g o ve rnme nt le ve l Sc ope and appr
e le c tric ity, hydro g e n, me tha ne a nd liq uid fue ls
xte nsive industr y c onsultation thr
a tte nde e s)
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15 Final report summarising findings from each energy vectors
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
de mand (GW) c ha lle ng e c o uld e me rg e ra the r tha n a pro duc tio n (T
Wh) c ha lle ng e : E Vs c o uld a dd 28 GW o f de ma nd b y 2050 (c .70% o f c urre nt pe a k) if c ha rg ing time is no t c o ntro lle d
s, re q uiring b o th re side ntia l c ha rg e po ints a nd a na tio na l pub lic ne two rk
E nd use r e xpe r ie nc e of public c har ge r s
I mpro ve the c urre ntly fra g me nte d drive r e xpe rie nc e o f pub lic infra struc ture b y e nsuring the ne two rk is we ll ma rke te d, e a sy to o pe ra te a nd imme dia te ly a c c e ssib le
E c onomic s of public c har ge r s
Busine ss c a se fo r pub lic c ha rg e po ints re ma ins c ha lle ng ing due to lo w utilisa tio n le ve ls b ut c o uld b e impro ve d with suppo rt me c ha nisms (fina nc ia l a nd lo a ding )
Char ging in r e side ntial ar e as
Ne w so lutio ns, b o th te c hnic a l a nd c o mme rc ia l, a re ne e de d fo r ho use ho lds witho ut priva te
Char ging at de pots / wor kplac e s
F le e t o pe ra to rs a re like ly to b e fa c e d with hig h lo c a l ne two rk re info rc e me nt c o sts a n inve stme nt in a sse ts no t o wne d b y the fle e t o pe ra to r: a n unfa milia r risk a nd pro c e dure
Impac t on e le c tr ic ity ne twor ks
Witho ut ma na g e me nt, E Vs c o uld (whe n a dde d to o the r te c hno lo g ie s suc h a s he a t pumps) re q uire la rg e inve stme nt in ne w distrib utio n infra struc ture
K e y to pic s fo r re c o mme ndatio ns:
T he major ity of c har ging e ve nts will take plac e at home and wor kplac e s, suppor te d by a we ll manage d and r e liable public ne twor k
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
L iq ue fie d Na tura l Ga s te rmina ls mig ht b e re q uire d
re fue lling fo r lo ng ha ul a pplic a tio ns
Planning guidanc e and safe ty issue s
A g uida nc e do c ume nt c o uld impro ve lo c a l inte rpre ta tio n o f the re le va nt re fue lling sta tio n te c hnic a l sta nda rds a va ila b le , a nd sa fe ty re g ula tio ns c o uld b e upda te d
Station e c onomic s and suppor t
Are a s with lo w thro ug hput a re like ly to re q uire suppo rt, whilst infra struc ture in a re a s o f hig he r thro ug hput will c o ntinue to b e c o mme rc ia lly o pe ra te d
E nd use r e xpe r ie nc e
Ha rmo nising future infra struc ture de plo yme nts c o uld impro ve the c urre ntly fra g me nte d drive r e xpe rie nc e (e .g . multiple no zzle type s, irre g ula r do wntime )
De pot infr astr uc tur e shar ing
Co nside r inc luding se mi-priva te sta tio ns (o ffe ring third pa rty a c c e ss o n a pre a g re e d c o mme rc ia l b a sis) a s ‘ pub lic ’ fa c ilitie s in re spo nse to Dire c tive 2014/ 94/ E U
We ll-to-T ank (WT T ) e missions
Me a sure s to minimise the GHG e missio ns re la te d to distrib utio n a nd dispe nsing o f g a s sho uld b e a do pte d fo r future infra struc ture siting a nd te c hno lo g y
K e y to pic s fo r re c o mme ndatio ns:
Many oppor tunitie s e xist for He avy Duty Ve hic le s to use natur al gas suppor te d by matur e r e fue lling te c hnologie s
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
q ua drupling o f e xisting pro duc tio n c a pa c ity, me t b y c o nve ntio na l a nd g re e n so urc e s
nno va tio n o ppo rtunitie s inc lude pro duc tio n/ distributio n c o st re duc tio n, q ua lity a ssura nc e , me te ring
De ployme nt of e ar ly public H2 stations
I ndustry a nd g o ve rnme nt will ne e d to wo rk c lo se ly to se c ure de plo yme nt o f the e a rly pub lic HRS ne two rk a nd hydro g e n ve hic le s
Maximising utilisation
ly stations
E nsuring infra struc ture is c o mpa tib le with a ll ve hic le type s a nd pub lic a lly a c c e ssib le will ma ximise sta tio n utilisa tio n (ke y fo r e c o no mic s o f sta tio ns)
Coor dination
H
2 sta ke ho lde rs sho uld ide ntify a n a ppro pria te fo rum fo r c o o rdina tio n a c tivitie s, a nd to
pre se nt a n a lig ne d UK stra te g y in o utre a c h to inte rna tio na l ve hic le ma nufa c ture rs to ma ximise a ppe tite fo r b ring ing ve hic le s to the UK
Siting and planning pr
E xisting re g ula tio ns sho uld b e a me nde d to ha rmo nise the pla nning a ppro va l pro c e ss, the re b y stre a mlining infra struc ture insta lla tio n
H2 pr
pathways
Ne w po lic y ma y b e re q uire d in the me dium te rm to e nsure tha t the future hydro g e n pro duc tio n mix de live rs stro ng e missio ns sa ving s
K e y to pic s fo r re c o mme ndatio ns:
Wide spr e ad use of hydr
mobility will r e quir e substantial gr
ibution infr astr uc tur e
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
PG, a po ssib le inc re a se in de ma nd mo stly b a se d o n Air Qua lity po lic y drive rs
iq uid a ir is the mo st pro mising ‘ nic he fue l’ , suite d fo r re frig e ra tio n units b ut ha s po te ntia l skill sho rta g e s
Station e c onomic s and suppor t
I de ntify future supply sho rta g e s a nd suppo rt full UK c o ve ra g e a s c o mme rc ia l fo re c o urt
Planning pe r mission guidanc e
T
fo r mo difying e xisting infra struc ture
Innovation
tunitie s
Upg ra ding e xisting infra struc ture to a c c o mmo da te hig he r b io fue l b le nds is c o stly,
Multi-fue l infr astr uc tur e inte gr ation
F
fo r whic h te c hnic a l b a rrie rs sho uld b e ide ntifie d a nd re g ula to ry sta nda rds de ve lo pe d
Communic ation of for e c our t availability
F
c o nsiste nt pla tfo rm a s to ta l fo re c o urt numb e r de c line
K e y to pic s fo r re c o mme ndatio ns:
A fully func tioning infr astr uc tur e for dominant liquid fue ls e xists to supply the UK ve hic le par c but will be fac e d with de c r e asing de mand
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
T he de ployme nt of public r e fue lling infr astr uc tur e for tr anspor t will r e quir e signific ant ne w inve stme nt and long te r m polic y c lar ity
I nve stme nt to de live r the future re fue lling / re c ha rg ing infra struc ture will re q uire :
pr ivate inve stor s, i.e . c le a r
a nd lo ng te rm g o ve rnme nt po sitio n fo r diffe re nt fue ls a nd po lic y drive rs, c o nfide nc e in lo ng te rm re ve nue s to justify upfro nt inve stme nt
unding suppor t in some c ase s in e ar ly ye ar s
(whe n a sse t utilisa tio n le ve ls a re lo w)
dination ac r
nme nt, r e gulator s and industr y to re mo ve c e rta in b a rrie rs to insta lla tio n
pla nning g uida nc e , ha rmo nisa tio n o f sa fe ty pro c e dure s, inte g ra tio n o f ne w fue ls in e xisting fo re c o urts
2050
£10b n
2030
£2.1b n
2020
£0.2b n
E le c tric ity L iq uid fue ls Me tha ne Hydro g e n
Cumulative public infr astr uc tur e inve stme nt1 E a rly inve stme nts ne e ding suppo rt Priva te inve stme nts in pro fita b le a sse ts
T he E ne r gy for F utur e T r anspor t
Ca n F
e le c trify ma instre a m mo to ring ?
#LowCVP15
http:/ / www.lo wc vp.o rg .uk/ ne ws,lo wc vp-2050-tra nspo rt-e ne rg y-infra struc ture - ro a dma ps-sho w-the -wa y-to -tra nspo rt-de c a rb o nisa tio n_3263.htm
12 2015 2050 2020 2030 2025 2050 2020 2030 2025
Solutions to provide certainty of access to homes w/o off‐street parking
Charging infra‐ structure network
3‐7 kW off‐street
Millions of charge points (mostly residential) will be needed to support widespread EV deployment, with uncertainty over charging technologies
Rollout of primarily conductive rapid (40+kW) charging points in short term Future type and rates will depend on technology developments
Residential
3/7/22 kW
Cars/vans
>40 kW CP (plug and wireless) installed with concurrent trials of alternative power delivery systems Potential rollout of alternative power delivery systems e.g. dynamic charging on highways, battery swap or overhead cables
Public network Technology Depot / workplaces Cars/vans Buses and HGVs
EV related DSR commercial arrangements formalised 300‐370k 4‐7 million 10‐15 million 8‐10k 100‐ 200k 400 ‐550k 4‐5k 20‐25k Up to c. £20bn for transmission and £30‐45bn for distribution* *To handle decarbonisation of the grid and uptake of EVs, heat pumps and distributed generation such as PV panels c.2,200 Dependant on BEV/ PHEV split and charging rates Full national coverage
Cost
£20‐40m c.1,100 £130‐ 230m
Cost estimates are cumulative costs from 2015 CP = Charge point
£300‐ 530m
per site Introduce smart systems alongside conventional network upgrades Dashed lines represent high uncertainty Major milestone /enabler
Charge points
Investment in electricity networks (transmission & distribution) – cumulative from 2015
Legend
Total sites Cars Vans HDVs
Thousand vehicles Projections are based on policy‐ led uptake scenarios in line with the UK’s GHG reduction targets Data supported quantification of infrastructure requirements
Infrastructure roadmap Plug‐in electric vehicles stock
20,000‐ 25,000 3,400‐ 4,000 130 4,000‐ 8,000 700‐ 1,300 20 1,500‐ 2,500 250‐ 400 10 300 60 <5 Many sites but variable
Visible and accessible network to all drivers
13
Charge points
Financial support mainly towards fleet operators Communicate real‐time station availability and fuel price data to end users
2015 2050 2020 2030 2025
Commercial deployment along key trucking routes Wider national network expansion expected to be fully commercial
Regulatory barriers will be the primary focus for enabling natural gas infrastructure, whilst a number of technical issues must also be resolved
Prioritise higher pressure grid connection (2‐70 bar, Local Transmission System and Intermediate Pressure) where possible. L‐CNG station deployment where LNG logistics are more accessible than grid connection c.370
Network characteristics (relevant to both public and private infrastructure) Location
Optimise logistics for delivery of LNG to stations, improving overall WTW emissions Strategic deployment new LNG import terminals to minimise delivery distance to LNG refuelling stations
Total stations CNG LNG
c.£340m
Total cost Access
Continued development of cooperative semi‐public infrastructure shared between fleets Greater fleet uptake provides sufficient investment confidence for large public stations deployment <50 800‐1,000 c.£1bn c.130 c.£68m Dashed lines represent high uncertainty Major milestone /enabler EU Directive guidance met: CNG and LNG stations on TEN‐T Core Network, <150km and <400km inter‐station distance respectively Multiple safety standards may limit LNG storage to 15‐20t LNG safety regulations modified Multi compressors stations for CNG Larger LNG and CNG stations
Station capacity
Targeted support for lower throughput regions
HGVs <18t HGVs >18t Buses
Thousand vehicles
Natural gas vehicle stock
105 85 17 26 24 9.7 13 12 5.1 4.0 4.0 2.0
Infrastructure roadmap
2050 2020 2030 2025
Station size range: 2, 5, 10, 15 tonnes/day
Costs based industry input, future cost reductions not included Indicative fuel economy: dual fuel HGV = 60 kg/day, dedicated HGV = 75 kg/day
Projections are based on policy‐ led uptake scenarios in line with the UK’s GHG reduction targets Data supported quantification of infrastructure requirements
14
Basic national coverage
Public access HRS #’s
First 65 ‘small’ HRS
HDV depots Pressure 350 bar Van/small truck depots Indoor forklifts 350 bar
Next c. 250 ‘medium’ and ‘large HRS Next c. 700 ‘medium’ and ‘large’ HRS Continued growth based on demand 700 bar SAE‐compliant fuelling for cars. HRS investors encouraged to make 350 bar H2 available to support other vehicle types and maximise utilisation Up to 5 additional c. 1t/day depot‐based HRS Emergence of multi‐tonne/day depots in major urban areas, covering multiple routes each Nationwide deployment
Gradual growth in indoor HRS as market develops, moving from small (<50kg/day) to large (>100kg/day) Conversion of multiple large logistics centres from batteries to fuel cells with indoor large HRS
The H2 infrastructure roadmap reflects the diverse refuelling needs of different vehicle types and the uncertainty about the speed of the rollout
Location 2015 2050 2020 2030 2025
Full national coverage Dashed lines represent high uncertainty Major milestone /enabler Production capacity largely for industry application Provide base load to underutilised network in early years
H2 supply and logistics
Production capacity Transport demand
Provision of new centralised capacity to support on‐site deployments 2015 production capacity exceeded
Increasing forecourt integration/decreasing stand‐alone HRS Limited use of depot‐based refuelling where cost‐effective/convenient HRS: hydrogen refuelling station
Cars Vans HDVs
Thousand vehicles
Hydrogen vehicle stock
4,200‐ 16,800 750‐ 3,000 130 680‐ 1,400 100‐ 200 8 180‐ 350 30‐60 3 2 <1 <1
Infrastructure roadmap
2050 2020 2030 2025
c.£40m c.£160m c.£700m c.£6,800m Projections are based on policy‐ led uptake scenarios in line with the UK’s GHG reduction targets Data supported quantification of infrastructure requirements
15
Charge points
Infrastructure growth entirely market driven Operators trial niche fuel with small numbers of fleet vehicles Key findings from trials inform future operator investment
With a predicted demand decrease for liquid fuels, forecourts might have to integrate new fuels and possibly be supported in certain areas
Continued slow rate of closures from c.8,600 stations Increased coexistence of multi‐fuel infrastructure to maximise utilisation
Public forecourts
Growing proportion of bunkered demand will shift to utilise forecourts with fuel cards
Private depots
2015 2050 2020 2030 2025 Support measures for some areas might be needed to maintain network
upgrades and capacity installations Trial integration of multiple fuel infrastructures Dashed lines represent high uncertainty Major milestone /enabler
c.1,400
Niche fuels Diesel Integration E20 forecourt investment Coverage
Potential transition to E20 would require upgrades to existing forecourts Dependant on feasibility of multi‐fuel integration and/or specific support mechanisms
Public selling points LPG
Depot infrastructure fully commercial – growth to follow demand
Cars Vans HDVs
Thousand vehicles
Liquid fuel vehicle stock
6,000‐ 31,000 1,000‐ 5,000 360 32,000 4,300 700 32,000 4,300 700 30,000 4,000 700 By 2050 cars are mostly RE‐EVs / PHEVs 50‐80% decrease in fuel demand on 2015 levels
Infrastructure roadmap
2050 2020 2030 2025 c.2,000 Projections are based on policy‐ led uptake scenarios in line with the UK’s GHG reduction targets Data supported quantification of infrastructure requirements