Synergy for Progressive Reforms November 2016 0 About Investor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Synergy for Progressive Reforms November 2016 0 About Investor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Republic of Indonesia Synergy for Progressive Reforms November 2016 0 About Investor Relations Unit of the Republic of Indonesia Investor Relations Unit (IRU) of the Republic of Indonesia has been established as a joint effort between
1
Investor Relations Unit (IRU) of the Republic of Indonesia has been established as a joint effort between Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia since 2005. The main objective of IRU is to actively communicate Indonesian economic policy and to address concerns of investors, especially financial market investors. As an important part of its communication measures, IRU maintains a website under Bank Indonesia website which is administered by International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, day-to-day activities of IRU are supported by all relevant government agencies, among
- thers: Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board, Ministry of Trade, Ministry
- f State Owned Enterprises, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and Financial Services Authority.
IRU also convenes an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices. Published by Investor Relations Unit – Republic of Indonesia Contact: Wiwit Widyastuti K. (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8279) Dalyono (Fiscal Policy Office - Ministry of Finance) Farid Arif Wibowo (Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management - Ministry of Finance) E-mail: contactIRU-DL@bi.go.id
About Investor Relations Unit of the Republic of Indonesia
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Overview
1 2 3 4 5 6
Institutional and Governance Effectiveness: Accelerated Reforms Agenda with Institutional Improvement Economic Factor: Strong and Stable Growth Prospects Remain Intact External Factor: Improved External Resiliency Fiscal Performance and Flexibility: More Fiscal Stimulus with Prudent Fiscal Management Monetary and Financial Factor: Credible Monetary Policy Track Record and Favourable Financial Sector Progressive Infrastructure Development: Strong Commitment on Acceleration
- f Infrastructure Provision
Accelerated Reforms Agenda with Institutional Improvement Institutional and Government Effectiveness:
1
4
Positive Global Perception
52 25 46 40 38 15 25 35 45 55 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Voice and Accountability Political Stability/Absence of Violence Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption
1. Source: World Bank; 2. Source: Transparency International; 3. Source: World Economic Forum
World Governance Indicators1 Ease of Doing Business1 Global Competitiveness Index3 Corruption Perception Index2
Higher rank is better
Higher score is better 36 38* 35 45 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Indonesia India Brazil Philippines Turkey * Both India and Brazil shared the same score (38) in 2015 Higher rank is better 41 39 81 57 55 30 45 60 75 90 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Indonesia India Brazil Phillipines Turkey Higher rank is better 91 130 123 99 69 50 70 90 110 130 150 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Indonesia India Brazil Philippines Turkey * Both ‘Rule of Law’ and ‘Regulatory Quality’ shared the same score (40) in 2015
5
Strong Improvement in Ease of Doing Business Rank*
EODB 2017 Rank EODB 2016 Rank Change in Rank EODB 2017 Points EODB 2016 Points Change in Points
Overall 91 106 15 61.52 58.51 3.01 Starting a business 151 167 16 76.43 67.51 8.92 Dealing with Construction Permit 116 113 3 65.73 65.26 0.47 Getting Electricity 49 61 12 80.92 77.60 3.32 Registering Property 118 123 5 55.72 53.24 2.48 Getting Credit 62 70 8 60.00 55.00 5.00 Protecting Minority Investors 70 69 1 56.67 56.67 Paying Taxes 104 115 11 69.25 64.47 4.78 Trading Across Borders 108 113 5 65.87 63.53 2.34 Enforcing Contracts 166 171 5 38.15 35.37 2.78 Resolving Insolvency 76 74 2 46.46 46.48 0.02
- Government efforts to boost business growth through deregulations and de-bureaucratization have been recognized by the improvement of EODB.
- Structural reforms will continue including in the budget and real sectors
Source: World Bank * Higher rank is better, EoDB 2017 is published in October 2016
6
Indonesia Remains the Investment Destination of Choice
3,9 3,9 4,6 5,5 6,2 7,9 11,1 11,5 16,6 23,6 27,5 30,7 38,8 38,8 40,4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Turkey Korea Singapore Russia Malaysia Myanmar Brazil Philippines USA Mexico Vietnam Thailand China Indonesia India % of surveyed who consider each country has promising prospects
1. Source: Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM); 2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Database October 2016, * actual figures; 3. The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2016; 4. Source: JBIC – Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (27th Annual Survey);
IDR tn
2016E Total Investment / GDP (%)
Indonesia Enjoys Large Investments Relative to Peers within the Region2 JBIC: Amongst ASEAN countries, Indonesia is the most preferred place for business investment (December 2015)4 The Economist: Indonesia among the top 3 destination for attracting investors in Asia (January 2016)3
18,9 22,9 23,6 24,8 27,1 28,3 29,0 30,1 32,2 32,7 37,2 48,0 58,2 69,3 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore Australia Japan Thailand Vietnam Myanmar Malaysia Philippines Indonesia China India % of surveyed who plan to increase investment in each country 155.3 55.6 99.7 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rising Direct Investments1
17,96 31,66 34,65 26,15 23,74 24,42 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Brazil India* Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand 40 80 120 160 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 FDI DDI TOTAL
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National Strategic Development Plan (Nawa Cita)
Human Development
Education Health Housing Character
Priority Sector Development
Food Security Energy & Electrical Security Maritime & Marine Tourism & Industry Water Security, Basic Infrastructure & Connectivity
Equitable Development
Inter- Income Group Inter-Region: (1) Rural Area, (2) Periphery, (3) Outside Java, (4) Eastern Area.
Security & Order Politic & Democracy Governance
The 3 Dimensions on Economic Development Necessary Condition
Legal Certainty & Law Enforcement
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Improving Investment Climate:
Introduce the 3-hour investment licensing service to complement the One Stop Service (OSS)
BKPM
- Arrive at OSS at BKPM directly from the airport
- Consult with Director of Investment Service
- Submit the required documents & data
Requirement for utilizing 3-hour Investment Lisencing Service:
No requirements for investment in infrastructure sector
9 documents obtained
Wait at the lounge while documents are processed by BKPM, in-house notary, ministries, & other government institutions Obtain eight documents & letter of land availability within three hours to start the business
- RPTKA / Employment plan
- IMTA / Working permit
- Investment license
- Certificate of incorporation
- NPWP / Tax Registration Number
- TDP / Company Registration
- APIP / Import identification
- NIK / Customs registration
- Letter of land availability
Until November 2016, more than 180 companies have utilized the “3 hours services”
Certainty to start a business Certainty to Import capital goods Certainty to work Accurate land information
1. Minimum investment of IDR 100 billion (USD 8 million) and/or employing 1,000 local workers. 2. Application must be submitted directly by at least one candidate
- f the proposed company stakeholder
2 documents needed
- ID Card
- And/or Deed of Establishment (Indonesian company) or Article
- f Association (Foreign company)
- Containing workflow from raw material production to the
finished products
Investor identitiy as the prospective shareholders Flowchart of business activities workflow
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM)
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Improving Investment Climate:
Introduce the 3-hour investment licensing service to complement the One Stop Service (OSS)
Direct Construction (KLIK)
No Requirements
- No minimum investments or workers is
required.
- Available for 14 selected industrial parks.
- Construction permits can be obtained in parallel
with construction process.
Investors can directly start their project construction before
- btaining construction permits. This service is supported by
both Central and Regional Governments which become the first step to synergize between central and local licensing
Obtain investment licence at OSS
at national or regional level.
- Survey a land within selected
industrial parks.
- Acquire the land for your industry.
- Start the construction of your project.
No other permits are required.
- Apply for building construction permit &
environmental permit, in parallel with construction process.
Priority Investment Service
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM)
Until November 2016, 79 projects have utilized the “KLIK services”
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Improving Investment Realization (Q3-2016)
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q3-2015 period
Rp140.3 T Rp155.3 T Rp92.5 T Rp99.7 T Rp47.8 T Rp55.6 T 373,560 276,023
10.7% 26.1% 7.8% 16.3%
Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2015 Q3-2016
*
* person
Decreasing
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FDI Realization by Sectors (Q3-2016)
Mining Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry Transport Equip and Other Transport Industry Metal, Machinery and Electronic Industry
Source: Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), compared to Q3-2015 period
US$569.75 mn US$663.85 mn US$688.41 mn US$764.06 mn US$1,231.41 mn US$632.24 mn
Food Industry
50.3%
US$694.39 mn
Food Crops
24.4% 70.1% 15.8% 30.8% 3.2% 37.7%
Investment Realization
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
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The Economic Policy Packages
“To improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth”
Phase III (7 Oct ’15) Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination
- f business unnecessary burden
Phase IV (15 Oct ’15) Social safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase V (22 Oct ’15) Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and deregulation on sharia banking Harmonizing Regulations Simplifying Bureaucratic Process Ensuring Law Enforceability Phase VI (6 Nov ’15) Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Phase I (9 Sept ’15) Improving national industry competitiveness Phase II (29 Sept ’15) Easing permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds requirement Phase VII (7 Dec ’15) Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process for individuals Phase VIII (21 Dec ’15) Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries Phase IX (27 Jan ’16) Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and improving rural –urban logistics sector Phase X (11 Feb ’16) Revising Negative investment List and improving protection for SMEs Phase XI (29 Mar ’16) Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and industries Phase XII (28 Apr’16) Improving Indonesia’s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Phase XIII (24 Aug ’16) Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Phase XIV (10 Nov ’16) Roadmap for E-commerce
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Boosting the Huge Potential of E-commerce in Indonesia
2,2 2,6 7,5 8,6 12,1 19,6
5 10 15 20 25
Indonesia India Japan World South Korea China
27% 29% 38% 44% 50% 58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore
- SMEs Loan Schemes
- Crowdfunding
- Grants
- Easing tax payment
- Incentive for local
start-up
- National payment
gateway
- Harmonizing
regulations
- Trainings
- Increasing internet
awareness
- Revitalizing PT.
Pos Indonesia
- Improving rural to
city logistics Expanding high fiber cable network
- Develop cyber
security system
- Awareness on
cyber crime Develop E-commerce Roadmap Total Active On-line Shopper/Total Population (%) E-commerce/Total Retail (%)
Online shopper and E-commerce contribution in Indonesia is still low, despite it’s huge potential Government’s Support to E-commerce Sector through 14th Economic Policy Package
Consumer Protection Communication Infrastructure Logistic Support HR Capacity Improvement Tax Relaxation Funding Support Cyber Security Operation Management
Source: Ministry of Finance
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Thematic Policy Issues on Deregulation
Next Phase of Policy Packages based on Sectoral and Thematic Issues Six policy issues under Packages I-XIII:
improvement of industry competitiveness improvement of society’s purchasing power widening of investment expansion of export efficiency of logistics sector improvement of tourism sector
Education and Vocational Training Logistics Agrarian reform Energy Industry, Manufacture, Tourism, Fishery & Service sector Food Invention, Innovation and Creative Economy
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Progress of the Economic Policy Packages
204 regulation has been deregulated As
- f
21 September 2016, deregulation
- f
202 regulations are finished (99%), comprising 48 regulations at Presidential level and 154 regulations at Ministrial/Institutional level Unfinished regulation, (a) Proposed Presidential Regulation concerning Gas Buffer Enterprises (Agregator); and (b) Proposed Presidential Regulation concerning Acceleration
- n
Housing Construction Licensing for Low-Income Communities As of 21 September 2016, from total 26 technical regulations, 24 regulations are deregulated, which left 2 regulation in process of deregulation
I–XII
202
SET
99% 204
TOTAL REGULATIONS
2
ON GOING DISCUSSION
1%
154 TOTAL
154
MINISTRIAL/INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL 100%
47 42
SELESAI
PRESIDENTIAL
50 TOTAL
48 FINISHED
PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL
96% I–XIII
FINISHED
TECHNICAL REGULATIONS
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Early Outputs: Positive Influence on Investment
1
Bonded Logistics Center (Pusat Logistik Berikat/ PLB) Total 28 BLC has been launched, including airplane maintenance industry and oil
6
Export Financing/KURBE Export of Train Wagon to Bangladesh
2
Investment Permit - 3 Hours Granted for 130 companies with investment value of
- Rp. 291 T (as of October 2016) and 77.000 additional
workforce
3
Industrial Zones (IZ)
- The Province of Central Java proposed 3 IZ’s: Kendal,
Demak, and Ungaran
- Pharmaceutical IZ in Bitung (North Sulawesi) in 2017
5
Facilities and Incentives for SEZ Total value of Rp 33.8 T (as of September 2016)
7
EoDB for SMEs Streamline/Simplify permits and procedures which shorten lead time and costs in 10 indicators
4
Wage Systems 14 Provinces have set 2016 Minimum Wage System in accordance to the Government Regulation (GR)
- No. 78/2015 (Kepri, Kalbar, NTB, Sumbar, Jambi, NAD,
Kalsel, Banten, Gorontalo, NTT, Jabar, Bali, Sumut, and Babel).
8
Simplification of Fiscal Incentive Process Used by 18 companies with average processing time
- f 13.4 days (previously 2 years)
9
SME’s Export Product Aggregator/Consolidator Launched with maiden export from North Sulawesi through SOEs’ Synergism Program
10
Revision to Negative List (PP No. 44/2016) Implemented since 24 June 2016 with participation of 527 companies with planned investment of USD 12.926 bn
Strong and Stable Growth Prospects Remain Intact Economic Factor:
2
18
Conducive Environment Underpinning Strong Growth Fundamentals
Largest Economy in South East Asia 4th Most Populous country in the World; 64% in productive age Manageable Inflation Rate Growing Middle Income Class From commodity-based to industrialized- natural resources-based economy via infrastructure development From consumption-led to investment-led growth via a stronger manufacturing sector and more investment initiatives Policies to maintain purchasing power to stimulate domestic economy in the midst of weakening macroeconomic conditions Budget reform as a part of larger economic reform initiative Tax base to be broadened from one reduce dependency
- n commodities
Fuel subsidies significantly reduced and spending redirected to more productive allocation Prudent debt management
Reform-Oriented Administration
Three main sources of financing for IDR 5 tn investment needs: State and regional budget, State Owned Enterprises and PPP Continuing from 2015 policy, infrastructure will be higher than fuel subsidy Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives to attract infrastructure investment and promote PPP Infrastructure spending focused on basic infrastructure projects
Large and Stable Economy Consistent Budget Reform New Economic Structure High Infrastructure Investments
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Indonesia’s Strong GDP
Growth Prospect GDP Growth Based on Expenditures1 Strong GDP Growth1
By expenditure 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 HH. consumption 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 Non profit HH. consumption 23.2 22.4 5.8 (0.5) (8.1) (8.0) 6.6 8.3 6.4 6.7 6.7 Government consumption 6.1 (1.8) 1.2 0.9 2.9 2.6 7.1 7.3 2.9 6.3 (3.0) Investment 5.2 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.6 3.9 4.8 6.9 5.6 4.6 4.1 Exports 3.2 1.4 4.8 (4.6) (0.6) 0.0 (0.6) (6.4) (3.9) (2.7) (6.0) Imports 5.0 0.4 0.3 3.2 (2.2) (7.0) (5.9) (8.1) (4.2) (3.0) (3.9) GDP 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.0
%
Institutions 2016 GDP growth (%YoY) 2016 Revised Budget 5.2 Bank Indonesia 4.9 – 5.3 IMF 4.9 World Bank 5.1 ADB 5.0 Consensus Forecast (November 2016) 5.0
- 5,0
- 3,0
- 1,0
1,0 3,0 5,0 7,0 9,0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018*
Brazil India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers2
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) 2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2016; * indicates estimated figure
%
0,06 3,83 3,29
- 2,11
- 0,23
3,75 3,36
- 1,83
- 0,35
4,03 3,20 5,14 4,96 4,97 5,04 4,73 4,66 4,74 5,04 4,92 5,18 5,02
- 3
- 1
1 3 5 7 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 2016
QoQ YoY
20
Strong and Stable GDP Performance
Shifting from Commodity-based Economy to Manufacturing and Service Sectors Contributors to GDP Growth by Sector Spatial GDP Growth
Manufacturing sector showed stable growth, supported by positive investment performance and provision of incentive
Logistic-related sector growth is driven by the development
- f
infrastructure projects and the improvement on logistic efficiency
Agriculture sector slowed due to unfavorable weather
Mining sector showed positive signal as the increase of oil and gas production
%
GDP growth by sectors (YoY) (%) 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yearly Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yearly Q1 Q2 Q3 Agriculture, forestry, and fishery 5.2 4.9 3.6 3.3 4.2 4.0 6.9 3.3 1.6 4.0 1.8 3.4 2.8 Mining (1.0) 1.1 1.2 1.5 0.7 (1.3) (5.2) (5.7) (7.9) (5.1) (0.8) (0.1) 0.1 Industrial processing 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.6 Construction 7.2 6.5 6.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.4 6.8 8.2 6.6 7.9 6.2 5.7 Big traders, wholesale, retail 6.1 5.0 5.2 4.5 5.2 4.1 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.5 4.0 4.0 3.7 Transportation and warehousing 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.4 5.8 5.9 7.3 7.7 6.7 7.9 6.9 8.2 Information and communication 9.8 10.5 9.8 10.3 10.1 10.1 9.7 10.7 9.7 10.1 8.1 9.9 9.2 Financial service and insurance 3.6 5.5 1.9 7.9 4.7 8.6 2.6 10.4 12.5 8.5 9.3 13.6 8.8 Other 5.4 4.7 5.9 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.5 5.0 5.9 5.6 6.0 5.4 4.3 GDP 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.0 Java: 58.4% Sumatera: 22.0% Maluku & Papua: 2.5% Sulawesi: 6.2% Kalimantan: 7.7% Bali & Nusa Tenggara: 3.2%
Spatial GDP Growth Contribution
Sumatera GDP Growth Q2 2016: 3.9% Java GDP Growth Q2 2016: 5.6% Kalimantan GDP Growth Q2 2016:2.1% Sulawesi GDP Growth Q2 2016:6.7% Maluku & Papua GDP Growth Q3 2016: 13.7% Bali & Nusa Tenggara GDP Growth Q3 2016: 5.0% Source: BPS
- 8
- 4
4 8 Manufacture Transportation & Warehousing Agriculture Mining Q3 2015 Q3 2016
Improved External Resiliency External Factor:
3
22
A Narrower, Structurally-Stronger Current Account Deficit
Improving Current Account Deficit Strong Balance of Payments Supported by Substantial FX Reserves to Mitigate External Challenges Trade Balance Surplus Continues
Source: Bank Indonesia Source: Bank Indonesia US$bn US$bn
115.7 9.4 5.7 (4.5) 2011: CA Surplus US$1.7bn 2015: CA Deficit (US$17.8bn) 2012: CA Deficit (US$24.4bn) 2013: CA Deficit (US$29.1bn) 2014: CA Deficit (US$27.5bn)
US$bn
(7.9) (1.5) 3.9 1.0 (4.5)
Source: Bank Indonesia FX Reserves as of Oct 2016: US$115.0bn (Equiv. to 8.4 months of imports + servicing of government debt) Month US$bn FX Reserves (LHS) Month of Import & Debt Service (RHS)
2016**: CA Deficit (US$4.5bn)
Source: BPS
2015: Surplus US$7.52bn 2014 Deficit US$1.89bn
US$bn
Jan-Oct 2016: Surplus US$6.92bn 20 40
60 80 100 120 140 160
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 20 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Current Account Capital & Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Assets (RHS)
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Goods Services Income Secondary Inc. Current Acc.
- 3
6 9 12 15
- 20
40 60 80 100 120 140 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
- 2,5
- 2,0
- 1,5
- 1,0
- 0,5
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2014 2015 2016 Non-OG OG Total
23
Balance of Payments Q3-2016: Summary
Source: Bank Indonesia
Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP) recorded a significant surplus in the third quarter of 2016, underpinned by a narrower current account deficit coupled with a growing capital and financial account surplus. The BOP performance in turn strengthened the official reserve asset position that mounted to USD115.7 billion, equivalent to 8.5 months of imports and servicing government foreign debt, which was well above the international adequacy standard. Balance of Payments The current account (CA) deficit narrowed on the back of gains in the goods and services trade balance. The CA deficit was observed to reduce from USD5.0 billion (2.2% of GDP) in Q2/2016 to US$4.5 billion (1.8% of GDP) in Q3/2016. The smaller deficit was bolstered by a larger non-oil and gas trade surplus and narrowed oil and gas trade deficit. In addition, the services trade deficit decreased due primarily to an increase surplus in the travel services account. . Capital & Financial Account The capital and financial account surplus continued to expand on positive sentiment concerning the promising domestic economic outlook as well as the unwinding of global risks. The capital and financial account surplus reached USD9.4 billion in the third quarter of 2016, increasing from USD7.6 billion in the second quarter and USD4.4 billion in the first quarter of 2016. Current Account
US$bn US$bn
115.7 9.4 5.7 (4.5) 50 100 150
- 20
- 10
10 20 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Current Account Capital & Financial Account Overall Balance Reserve Assets (RHS) US$bn (7.9) (1.5) 3.9 1.0 (4.5)
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Goods Services Income Secondary Inc. Current Acc.
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 20 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Direct Inv. Portfolio Inv. Other Inv. Capital & Financial Acc. US$bn (2.3) 5.2 6.5 9.4
24
Balance of Payments Q3-2016: Current Account
Source: Bank Indonesia
Trade Balance: Non-Oil & Gas The oil and gas trade balance improved in the third quarter of 2016 on a quarterly and annual basis. The oil and gas trade deficit narrowed to USD1.3 billion from USD1.4 billion last period and USD2.1 billion in the third quarter
- f
2015. Declining
- il
and gas imports contributed to the improvement. Trade Balance: Oil & Gas
- The services trade balance recorded a deficit of USD1.5 billion in the
third quarter of 2016, down from USD2.2 billion last quarter. Fewer freight payments and increase in net receipts of travel services contributed to the narrower deficit.
- The primary income account recorded a deficit of USD7.9 billion, up
slightly from the USD7.8 billion posted in the previous quarter, due to a scheduled increase in interest payments by the Government on its debt securities.
- Secondary income in Q3/2016 recorded a surplus of US$1.0 billion,
mainly due to a net personal transfer receipts. The net personal transfer receipts was down slightly to USD1.3 billion in Q3/2016, due to a moratorium on placing Indonesian migrant workers (TKI) in certain countries. Services, Primary Income, Secondary Income The non-oil and gas trade balance recorded a USD5.3 billion surplus in the reporting period, up from USD5.2 billion previously, as non-oil and gas imports contracted more deeply (-5.2%, qtq) than non-oil and gas exports (-4.2%, qtq). A moderate decrease in exports was supported by rising export prices, mainly of primary products such as vegetable oil and coal.
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15
- 50
- 25
25 50 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Export Import Non Oil & Gas Trade Balance (RHS)
- 4
4
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Import Export Oil & Gas Trade Balance (RHS)
- 12
- 8
- 4
4 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3* Q1* Q3* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016** Services Primary Income Secondary Income Total US$bn US$bn US$bn US$bn US$bn (26.3) 31.3 5.0 (4.5) 3.3 (1.3) (7.9) (1.5) 1.0 (8.4)
25
Balance of Payments Q3-2016: Financial Account
Source: Bank Indonesia
On the assets side, Indonesia’s financial account in Q3/2016 recorded a net inflows (surplus) of US$3.3 billion, in contrast with a deficit of US$3.9 billion in Q2/2016. The surplus was among others related to the domestic private sector residents withdrew their offshore deposits. Financial Account: Asset Positive sentiment concerning the promising domestic economic
- utlook bolstered the direct investment surplus. On the liability side,
direct investment recorded a net inflow of USD6.0 billion in the third quarter of 2016, increasing from USD4.2 billion on net withdrawals of loans from affiliates abroad, which reversed the previous net debt payments to affiliates abroad. Meanwhile, capital inflows in the form of equity were considered moderate but surpassed that recorded one year earlier. Financial Account: Liabilities – Direct Investment
- 2
2 4 6 8 10 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016 Debt Instruments Equity & Inv. Fund Shares Total
- 15
- 12
- 9
- 6
- 3
3 6 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016
- Fin. Derivatives
Direct Inv. Portfolio Inv. Other Inv. Financial Account 3.9
US$bn US$bn
6.0
26
Balance of Payments Q3-2016: Financial Account
Source: Bank Indonesia
The portfolio investment surplus, while moderating compared to the previous period, was still substantial on account of positive sentiment concerning the sound implementation of Tax Amnesty Law. The surplus was mainly due to the increase in net non-resident buying on government debt securities and domestic stocks, although growing concerns over the timing of the expected Federal Funds Rate (FFR) hike prompted non- resident investors to trim their shareholdings in September 2016. In general, however, non-resident portfolio capital inflows totalled USD4.6 billion in the reporting period, down from USD7.9 billion, as there were no global bonds issued by the government in the third quarter of 2016. Financial Account: Liabilities - Portfolio Investment Other investment liabilities in Q3/2016 recorded a deficit
- f
US$4.3 billion, widened from the deficit of US$0.4 billion in Q2/2016. The private sector recorded a deficit of USD3.0 billion, stemmed from an increase in the net payment of offshore loans and trade credits as well as a net withdrawal of non-resident deposits held at domestic banks. Meanwhile, public sector recorded a deficit of USD1.2 billion in the third quarter of 2016, lower than previous period. Financial Account: Liabilities - Other Investment
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 10 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016 Debt Sec, net Equity & Inv. Fund Shares, net Total
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 10 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016 Private Sector Public Sector Total
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1* Q3** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016 Private Sector Public Sector Total 4.6
US$bn US$bn
4.6
US$bn
(4.2)
27
Exchange Rate In Line with Fundamentals
Stable Movement of Rupiah
Source: Bank Indonesia
YTD 2016* vs 2015
Source: Bank Indonesia
Rupiah Exchange Rate Relatively Well Compared to Peers
IDR/US$
The rupiah appreciated by an average of 0.71% to a level of Rp13,048 per USD as of October 2016. The Rupiah appreciation stemmed from positive sentiment surrounding the solid domestic economic outlook, in line with maintained macroeconomic stability and the successful implementation
- f
the Tax Amnesty. Externally, however, the Rupiah strengthened as global risks eased on the back of clearer policy direction from the Federal Reserve concerning the next FFR hike.
Oct 2016* vs Sep 2016
Source: Bank Indonesia IDR/USD Monthly Average Quarterly Average * data as of 31 October 2016 * data as of 31 October 2016
- 5,66
- 3,19
- 0,94
0,41 2,38 2,73 2,97 5,65 14,86 24,02
- 8,00
- 3,00
2,00 7,00 12,00 17,00 22,00 27,00 TRY PHP INR EUR MYR KRW THB IDR ZAR BRL %
* data as of 31 October 2016
- 3,73
- 2,56
- 3,29
- 3,47
- 1,53
- 1,17
0,83
- 1,34
- 0,25
0,04 0,02 2,15
- 1,54
- 1,59
- 3,51
- 1,70
- 0,88
- 0,98
0,49
- 1,54
0,03
- 1,6
0,71 2,10
- 5,00
- 4,00
- 3,00
- 2,00
- 1,00
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 KRW EUR TRY JPY CNY THB ZAR MYR INR PHP IDR BRL %
Average Point-to-point
28
Lines of Defense Against External Shocks
FX Reserve
Ample of level of FX reserves to buffer against external shock
FX Reserves as of October 2016: US$115.0 billion South Korea
Established a 3 year KRW/IDR swap arrangement with the size of up to 10.7 trillion KRW / IDR 115 trillion in March 2014 Australia
Exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to A$10 billion or IDR 100 trillion
Effective as of December 15, 2015. The effective period will be three years, and could be extended by mutual consent of both sides
First Line of Defence Second Line of Defence BI’s Existing Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA)
* In addition to the above facilities, Indonesia is entitled to access IMF facilities for crisis prevention to address potential (actual) BOP problem as part of IMF’s Global Financial Safety Net (GSFN) initiative. Such facilities include Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL)
Japan
US$ 22.76 billion swap line with the Bank of Japan currently in place
The quantum of the swap line was increased from US$12 billion in December 2013 Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) Agreement
Entitled to a maximum swap amount of US$ 22.76 billion under the ASEAN+3 (Japan, China, and Korea) FX reserves pool created under the agreement
Came into effect in 2010 with a pool of US$120 billion
Doubled to US$ 240 billion effective July 2014
Source: Bank Indonesia
29
Comprehensive Stabilization Framework Ensures Proactive Risk Management of Financial System
Implementing Crisis Management Protocol Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework Enhancing coordination between government institutions and continuous dialogue with market participants Specific policies in place in the 2014 budget law to address crisis Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization
Specific articles in the 2014 State Budget Law that provide flexibility for Government to take quick mitigation action if necessary, with Parliament approval that has to be given within 24 hours
The FKSSK, Consists of Minister of Finance, BI Governor, Head of Indonesian FSA and Head of Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation, manages the Nationwide Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) Framework as guidance and procedures for national crisis prevention and mitigation measures. The nationwide CMP incorporates the Exchange Rate, Banking, Non-Bank Financial Institution, Capital Market, Government Bonds Market (SBN), and Fiscal CMPs. Coordination Meeting is conducted regularly to discuss and assess the current level of Financial System Stability and current issues related to the financial system In 2013, FKSSK has conducted two crisis simulations: Full Dress Simulation (ministerial level) and activation of pre-emptive instrument (CMIM) at technical In April 2016, the Financial System Crisis Prevention and Mitigation Law (UU PPKSK) has been enacted. The law contains some key features, ie: Clear division of tasks and responsibilities between the Ministry of Finance, BI, OJK and LPS; Clarity of Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) definition based on international criteria; Application of the bail-in principle according to international best practices; and Resolution mechanism in which Lender
- f Last Resort (LoLR) still provided by central banks to address short-term liquidity difficulties.
Several indicators are monitored daily: yield of benchmark series, exchange rate, Jakarta Composite Index and foreign ownership in government securities
Crisis Management Protocol
Related State Owned Enterprises (min. Aware Level) State Budget SOE Budget BPJS Budget Buyback fund at the DG of BFRM and Investment fund at PSA (min Aware Level) BPJS/Social Security Organizing Agency (min. Aware Level)
Bond Stabilization Framework
1 2 3 4 5 6 Fiscal buffers to prevent crises and mitigate risks First Line of Defence Related State Owned Enterprises (min. level Alert ) State Budget SOE Budget BPJS Budget State General Treasury Account/KUN (min. level Alert) and Accumulated Cash Surplus/SAL (min. Level Crisis) BPJS/Social Security Organizing Agency (min. Alert Level) Second Line of Defence
30
Strengthened Private External Debt Risk Management
(US$bn)
Source: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, November 2016
(%)
Source: Moody’s Statistical Handbook, November 2016
Despite Increasing Trend of External Debt… Debt Burden Indicator (External Debt / GDP) Remains Comparable to Peers
Regulation Key Points Phase 1 Jan 1,2015 – Dec 31,2015 Phase 2 Jan 1,2016 – Dec 31,2016 Phase 3 Jan 1, 2017 and beyond Object of Regulation Governs all Foreign Currency Debt Hedging Ratio < 3 months 20% * 25%** > 3 – 6 months 20%* 25%** Liquidity Ratio ( < 3 months) 50% 70% Credit Rating Not applicable Minimum rating of BB- Hedging transaction to meet hedge ratio not necessarily be done with a bank in Indonesia Must be done with a bank in Indonesia Sanction As of Q IV-2015 Applied
Prudent External Debt Management
External Debt / GDP (%)
Oct 2014, introduced prudential principles in managing external debt for the nonbank corporation to mitigate risk emerging from external debt activity. Corporations holding external debt required to fulfil:
- Minimum hedging ratio in order to mitigate currency risk
- Minimum forex liquidity ratio to mitigate liquidity risk
- Minimum credit rating to mitigate overleverage risk
Regulation update in Dec 2014 including among others: broadening the coverage of components of FX Assets and Liabilities, extension of credit rating’s status validity period
(US$bn) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015* Feb 2016* Apr 2016* Jun 2016* Aug 2016* Public (Govt. & BI) Private Total (RHS)
Total FCY Debt: US$325.3 bn Private Sector FCY Debt: US$163.1 bn
23,3 27,3 34,7 33,0 29,5 50,4 23,4 26,5 33,3 36,0 37,5 55,4 21,4 25,8 36,4 34,7 39,3 55,5 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 India Philippines Thailand Indonesia Brazil Turkey 2016F 2015 2014
31
Manageable External Debt Profile
... short term non-bank corporate debt (non affiliation) represents only 9.2% of total private external debt
Private Short-Term1 Private Non-Bank
External Debt Position Affiliation Non Affiliation
US$162.2 Bn
- r
49.9%
- f Total Ext.
Debt US$114.1 Bn
- r
69.9%
- f Private Ext.
Debt US$19.9 Bn
- r
12.2%
- f Private
- Ext. Deb
US$14.1 Bn
- r
8.6%
- f Private
- Ext. Debt
US$15.0 Bn
- r
9.2%
- f Private
- Ext. Debt
Public Long Term 1 Private Bank
US$29.1bn
- r
17.9%
- f Private
- Ext. Debt
US$325.3bn
US$163.1bn
- r
50.1%
- f total
- Ext. Debt
US$49.0bn
- r
30.1%
- f Private
- Ext. Debt
External Debt Position as of September 2016
1 Based on remaining maturity
Source: External Debt Statistics of Indonesia, November 2016
More Fiscal Stimulus with Prudent Fiscal Policy Fiscal Performance and Flexibility:
4
33
Budget
- Better targeted subsidy
- Social welfare spending
- Strengthening regional involvement
through intergovernmental transfer Incentives
- Effort to maintain consumption
growth
- Deregulations to ease business
climate
- Increasing non taxable income
threshold
- Improving the easiness in doing
business
Main Strategy to Spur Economic Growth
...integrated policy framework through integrated fiscal, real sector and monetary policy reform
- Prudent monetary policy
- Appropriate macro-prudential policy
- Exchange rate management to reduce volatility
Budget
- Focusing on more sustainable
revenue, esp. taxation
- More realistic revenue target
calculation
- Increasing more productive
spending, inc. infrastructure
- Budget efficiency on non-priority
spending
- More sustainable financing
- Maintaining fiscal rule of 3% deficit to
GDP Incentives
- Investment friendly policies
- Regulation to stimulate the trade of
high value added domestic products
Growth Friendly Fiscal Policy to Achieve Sustainable and Equitable Growth
Accommodative Monetary Policy while Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability
SHORT – MEDIUM Term Policies
By utilizing:
- Credible and realistic budget
- Incentives for strategic
sectors
- Support for stable
consumption
LONG Term Policies
34
Long Term Strategies to Achieve Sustainable Growth
…stimuli to maintain purchasing power
The Virtuous Cycle of Purchasing Power Stimuli
Consumption is still the largest contributor to Indonesia’s GDP Private consumption has been a key factor driving Indonesia’s
economic growth in recent years
The government has designed stimulus program to maintain and
enhance purchasing power for households
The government has increased non-taxable income level and
adjusted wage policy to ensure that the lowest income bracket has the greatest support
Funds are targeted at not only to improve basic village
infrastructure but also to create jobs through labor intensive projects as well as other job creation programs
u
Fuel price and electricity adjustment Predictable labour wages Boosting housing development Elimination of luxury goods tax for consumer goods 2 months addition of rice subsidy program Rural transfer for productive spending Ease of land certification and licensing for street vendors
Maintaining Purchasing Power
Increase non-taxable income limit Stabilized price for meat products
35
Long Term Strategies to Achieve Sustainable Growth
…stimuli to promote investments
Licensing Incentives Tax Incentives Other Incentives Business and Infrastructure Incentives
Tax incentives
- n property
Special economic zones Relaxation of negative foreign investment list Integrated logistics zones CPO fund Support for export-oriented industries Village-city logistics improvement Acceleration
- f power
infrastructure Income tax relief for labor intensive industries Permit & licensing simplfication One map policy Incentives for footwear and apparel industries Simplification of import licensing for drugs and raw food Accelerating infrastructure development Water management and regulation Tax incentives for REITS Relaxation of entry visa policies Expansion of coverage and interest subsidy for MSME Dwelling time
- ptimization
Oil refinery development Aviation sector incentives Downstream industries Debt To equity ratio
36
‘The Big Bang” Policy on Relaxation of Foreign Investment
…promoting competition and growth from investments
Introduction of New Foreign Ownership Regulation for Strategic Sectors
1 For total project value of IDR10bn and above
Before
Cold storage Restaurants, Bars Pharmaceutical Raw Materials Manufacturing Sports Center, Film Processing Lab, Crumb Rubber
49%
Revision of "Partnership" category to refer to partnership with Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Grandfather Law: If a particular sector is tightened in future, existing foreign investor does not need to comply with tighter stake Key Reforms in Negative Foreign Investment List Strengthen implementation of negative investment law through active roles from ministries, agencies and regional governments
100% 49% 100% 51% 100% 85% 100% 95% 100% 33% 67% 51% 67% 51% 67% 55% 67% 65% 67%
Distribution, Warehousing Private Museum, Catering, apparel Manufacturing, Exhibitions & Conventions Toll Road Operator, Telecommunication Testing Company Consultancy for Construction1 Telecommunication Provider with Integrated Services Professional Training, Golf Course Management, Air Transport Support Services, Travel Bureau
After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After
37
2017 Macroeconomic Assumptions and Budget Posture
Indicator 2016 2017 R-budget Outlook Budget Economic growth (%, yoy) 5.2 5.0 5.1 Inflation (%, yoy) 4.0 3.2 4.0 3-Month T-Bills (%) 5.5 5.4 5.3 Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) 13,500 13,300 13,300 ICP (US$/barrel) 40 40 45 Oil Lifting (thousand barrel/day) 820 820 815 Gas Lifting (thousand barrel
- il equivalent/day)
1,150 1,150 1,150
- Macroeconomic assumption was calculated conservatively, measuring the recent external economic development, domestic potentials, and
how the government policy would impact the economy.
- To achieve the target, government will ensure the consistency in supporting investment growth through policy packages, supportive policies
from other institutions (e.g. regional government), and better budget role as growth stimulus.
- Budget as the instrument to support growth momentum but still keeping its credibility
Source: Ministry of FInance
Description (IDR tn) 2016 2017 Growth (%) R-Budget Outlook Budget To R-Budget To Outlook
A.
REVENUE 1,786.2 1,582.9 1750.3
- 2.0%
10.6%
I.
Domestic Revenue 1,784.2 1,580.9 1748.9
- 2.0%
10.6%
- 1. Tax Revenue
1,539.2 1,320.2 1498.9
- 2.6%
13.5%
- 2. Non Tax Revenue
245.1 260.7 250 2.0%
- 4.1%
II.
Grant 2.0 2,0 1.4
- 30.0%
- 30.0%
B.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING 2,082.9 1,898.6 2080.5
- 0.1%
9.6%
I.
Central Government 1,306.7 1,195.3 1315.5 0.7% 10.1%
- 1. Ministerial Spending
767.8 672.0 763.6
- 0.5%
13.6%
- 2. Non Ministerial Spending
538.9 523.3 552 2.4% 5.5%
II.
Intergovernmental Transfer 776.3 703.3 764.9
- 1.5%
8.8%
- 1. Regional Transfer
729.3 659.1 704.9
- 3.3%
6.9%
- 2. Rural Transfer
47.0 44.2 60 27.7% 35.7%
C.
PRIMARY BALANCE (105.5) (126.4)
- 109
3.3%
- 13.8%
D.
BUDGET SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) (296.7) (315.7)
- 330.2
11.3% 4.6% % deficit to GDP (2.35) (2.50) (2.41) 2.6%
- 3.6%
E.
FINANCING 296.7 315.7 330.2 11.3% 4.6%
I.
Debt Financing 371.6 387.8 384.7 3.5%
- 0.8%
II.
Investment Financing (94.0) (91.5)
- 47.5
- 49.5%
- 48.1%
III.
Other Financing 19.3 19.3
- 7
- 136.6%
- 136.1%
2017 Macroeconomic Assumption 2017 Budget
38
A More Realistic Tax Revenue Target
...tax policies are directed to expand tax base and increase compliance
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 2014 2015 2016 2017 Realisasi Target 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 2014 2015 2016 2017 Realisasi Target Source: Ministry of Finance
19,5% 8,2% 29,9% 3,4% 6,4% 24,1%
- 2,6%
13,5% 25,9% 38,7% 8,2% 6% 30,4% 9,4%
- 3,6%
15%
Realization/ Outlook for 2016 Realization/ Outlook for 2016 Target to target growth Realization to target growth Realization to Realization growth
Increase tax base and tax compliance i.e. through IT and database improvement Provide tax incentives to support competitiveness and investment climate Improve taxation regulation i.e. through the amendment of laws (KUP, VAT, Income Tax, Stamp Duty Laws) Excises to control consumption of certain goods and minimize negative externality Optimize international taxation to enforce transparency Tax Collection Target (IDR tn) Non Oil and Gas Tax Collection (IDR tn)
2017 Main Tax Policies
39
Tax Amnesty as Policy Breakthrough
...expected to be strongly affecting the economy trajectory in both short and long run
Expanding Tax Base through more Reliable, Integrated and Comprehensive Database Increasing More Sustainable Tax Collection in Both Short and Long Term Tax Policy Reform Tax Administration Reform
- Establishment of Semi Autonomous Revenue
Agency
- More effective and better targeted law
enforcement
- Improvement of IT and communication
system
- Enhancement of data management
- Amendment of General Provision of Taxation
Law
- Amendment of VAT Law
- Amendment of Income Tax Law
- Amendment of Stamp Duty Law
Tax Amnesty as the Milestone of Tax Reform More Reforms are Coming
Accelerating Economic Growth through Asset Repatriation, via several transmissions:
Increase domestic liquidity Improve the stability of IDR currency Create lower interest rate Support investment growth Short Term: Collection from Amnesty Fee Long Term : Better Tax Collection based on Better Tax Database
40
One of the Most Succesful Tax Amnesty in the World
...proving the huge potential on Indonesia tax base
- Indiv. Non MSME
- Indiv. MSME
- Corp. Non MSME
- Corp. MSME
0,04% 0,12% 0,24% 0,35% 0,62% 0,76% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% Austalia Spain Italy India Chile Indonesia 0% 2% 2% 4% 8% 23% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Australia India Spain Italy Chile Indonesia
% of GDP Penalty as % of GDP Source: Ministry of Finance, Deutsche Bank Calculation, as of Sept, 30th 2016 (the end of Tax Amnesty Program’s first period)
7.14 0.03 0.23
7.4
186.52 10.33 71.52
268.4
5.71 0.19 0.71
6.6
Tax Amnesty Revenue Realization, Based On Tax Payment Slip (US$ bn) Tax Amnesty Revenue Realization, Based on Tax Declaration Letter (US$ bn) Realization Of Asset Declaration From Tax Amnesty (US$ bn) Repatriation Onshore Declaration Offshore Declaration Tax Arrears Payment Redemption (TPS) Preliminary Evidence Payment Declared Assets Revenue From Tax Amnesty
41
Worldwide Declaration and Repatriation
Top 5 Repatriation by Country Origin Country IDR tn % Singapore 631,29 67,36 Virgin Islands 71,74 7,66 Cayman Islands 52,53 5,61 Hong Kong 37,89 4,04 Australia 32,10 3,43 Country IDR tn % Singapore 77,41 57,18 Cayman Islands 16,50 12,19 Hong Kong 13,98 10,33 China 3,56 2,63 Virgin Islands 2,25 1,66 Top 5 Offshore Declaration by Country Origin
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of Sept, 30th 2016 (the end of Tax Amnesty Program’s first period)
42
Commitment to Continue Productive Spending
...budget allocation for education, infrastructure, and health significantly increasing
Energy
- 64.6%
Education +27.3% Infrastructure +114.3% Health +82.9%
The efficiency ambience is maintained in 2017 budget, especially for less priority spending Preserving the infrastructure acceleration Social welfare spending to improve equality and maintain consumption growth Better and better subsidy scheme
Source: Ministry of Finance
43
Budget for Priority Program
...20 percent for education and 5 percent for health
Bidikmisi
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 APBN
IDR tn 2,7 2,8 3,0 2,7 2,8 3,3 3,8 5,0 5,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 APBN APBNP % of APBNP IDR tn % Basic and complete immunization for 92% of 0-11 months old infants Immunization 94.4 million people Health Insurance Subsidy (PBI) Stunting prevention to 29.6%
- f children below 2 years old
Stunting Prevention 700 regencies Community Health Centre (Puskesmas) 6.7 million people Family Plan Program (KB)
Budget for Education Program Budget for Health Program
360.5 thousands college students 19.5 million students Indonesia Smart Card (KIP) 101,100 teachers 10,200 lecturers Certification School Rehabilitation 41,128 rooms 8.5 million students School Operational Assistance (BOS) 107 Colleges/Universities Operational Assistance for Colleges
44
Infrastructure Budget Continues to Increase
* Budget for infrastructure in the 2017 State Budget increases by Rp40.8 T than proposed, mainly comes from transfer to regions (DAU & DBH) 8,1 8,3 8,8 9,8 10,2 8,7 14,2 15,2 18,6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % IDR tn Anggaran Infrastruktur % thd Belanja Negara (RHS)
815 km Roads 9,399 m Bridges 550 km Railways 13 airports Airports 55 locations Seaports Terminal 3 locations
As regulated in the Minister of Finance Regulation PMK 48/2016 on Transfer to the Regions and Village Funds management, in 2017 minimum 15% of non-earmarked Revenue Sharing and General Allocation Fund have to be used for infrastructure development (the level has increased to become 25% in the 2017 State Budget).
Infrastructure budget % of total state expenditure (RHS) Infrastructure Budget Allocation* 2017 Target
Source: Ministry of Finance
45
Subsidy Policy in 2017 Aims to be Better Targeted and Improved Mechanism
137,8 94,4 77,3 74,3 83,4 82,7 65% 53% 48% 35% 47% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015 2016 2017 Energy Subsidy Non Energy Subsidy Portion of Ener. Subs Portion of Non Ener. Subs
IDR Tn Fuel and 3kg LPG subsidies Rp32.3 T:
- Close distribution (by name and by address)
- Implemented gradually
- Recipients are 26 million poor households and 2.3
million micro business Electricity subsidy Rp45,0 T:
- Recipients are 19.1 million customers of R-1/450 VA
and 4.05 million customers of R-1/900 VA
- For non poor customers of 900VA, the tariff will be
gradually adjusted by three times every two months.
- Food
subsidy will be given to 14.3 million households
- Gradual conversion of rice for the poors (Rastra) to
become non-cash/voucher food assistance
- program. Pilot project in 44 cities.
- Fertilizer and seeds subsidies program are directed
to support the improvement
- f
agriculture productivity
- Provision
- f
9.55 millions volume
- f
fertilizer subsidy
- Seeds subsidy provision for rice and soybean.
- Support MSME through KUR (interest subsidy)
Share of Energy Subsidy Share of Non-Energy Subsidy
Energy Subsidy Non-Energy Subsidy
Source: Ministry of Finance
46
Increasing the Effectiveness and Efficiency of Transfer to Regions & Village Fund
IDR503.6 tn
(General Transfer
Fund)
IDR173.4 tn
(Special Transfer Fund)
IDR7.5 tn
(Incentive Fund)
IDR20.3 tn
(Special Autonomy & Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta)
IDR60.0 tn
(Village Fund)
Minimum 25% (Rp125.9 tn) of General Transfer Fund has to be used for public service facility development acceleration Physical Special Transfer Fund allocation is based on regions’ proposal and national priorities, especially for underdeveloped regions, border areas, and transmigration. Incentive Fund allocation is increased to reward regions with good fiscal management and basic public service performances.
- There are 317 regions being rewarded with incentive fund.
- The lowest incentive is Rp7,5 billion.
- The highest incentive is Rp65,3 billion.
Improving efficiency and effectiveness of Special Autonomy & DIY Fund.
- Special Autonomy Fund Papua Rp5.6 T.
- Special Autonomy Fund West Papua Rp2.4 T.
- Special Autonomy Fund Aceh Rp8.0 T.
- DTI Papua & West Papua Rp3.5 T.
Gradually increases Village Fund.
- Average allocation for each village Rp800.5 million.
- Lowest village fund allocationRp726.7 million.
- Highest village fund allocation Rp2.8 billion.
*The budget for this allocation is higher than the budget for line ministries
2017 Transfer to Regions and Village Funds*
47
Preserving Fiscal Sustainability Through the Compliance with Fiscal Rule and Productive Financing
- 2,35
- 2,5
- 2,41
- 3
- 10
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Brazil India Malaysia Indonesia
Constitutional Threshold Indonesia Financing Plan 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Audited Audited R-Budget Budget Government securities 255,7 380,9 371,6 384,7 Investment Financing (8,9) (59,7) (94,0) (47,5) Lending 2,5 1,5 0,5 (6,4) Liability Guarantee 1,0
- (0,7)
(0,9) Other Financing 0,5 0,3 19,3 0,3 Indonesia’s Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Prudent and Cautious Expansive Fiscal Deficit
Source: Ministry of Finance
- Managing fiscal deficit below 3%
- Indonesia has implemented budget deficit regime for years but
never exceeded the constitutional threshold
- Financial inclusion and market deepening
- Debt issuance to finance productive activity
- Selective external loan (to finance infrastructure and energy
sector)
- Loan as an alternative instrument for financing
- Active
Debt Management and Assets and Liabilities Management
- Government sharia debt securities (SUKUK) as project-based
financing for infrastructure projects, such as double track railway from Martapura-Baturaja (South Kalimantan), Purwokerto-Kroya (Central Java) and Madiun-Jombang (East Java), and other road and bridge financing across the nation
48
Management of Contingent Liabilities
Government Guarantee Program and Portfolios 2008 - Present
- Central Government Guarantees are carefully provided to meet
various item of infrastructure programs
- Until Sept 2016, total guarantee committed are USD16,24 bn
(eq. IDR211,1 tn) for 6th programs, and outstanding/exposure were USD5,59 bn (eq. IDR72,6 tn)
49
Financing Policy 2016
Description (IDR tn) 2016 2016 Budget R-Budget I. Domestic Financing
272.8 299.3
1. Domestic Banking
5.5 25.4
2. Domestic Non-Banking
267.3 273.9
II. Foreign Banking
0.4
- 2.53
1. Foreign Outstanding Loan (Gross)
75.1 72.9
- a. Program Loan
36.8 35.8
- b. Project-Based Loan
38.3 37.2
2. Standby Loan Agreement (SLA)
- 5.9
- 5.8
3. Foreign Debt Principal Repayment
- 68.8
- 69.7
TOTAL
273.2 296.7
(0,73) (1,14) (1,86) (2,33) (2,25) (1,90) (2,35)
(3,0) (2,0) (1,0) 0,0 (300) (250) (200) (150) (100) (50)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Budget 2016 R-Budget
% IDR tn
Deficit % to PDB
- Manageable Debt-to-GDP ratio
- Financial inclusion & market deepening
- Debt issuance for productive activity
- Selective external loan (infrastructure and energy sector)
- Loan as an alternative instrument for financing
- Active debt management and Asset Liabilities Management
(ALM)
- Sharpen PMN recipients and purposes
- Provide government guarantee for infrastructure project
- Support accessibility for education and housing for low
income class Debt Financing Non Debt Financing
50
Budget Financing Breakdown in 2016
Debt (Gross) IDR729.03tn
Redemption IDR315.63tn Budget Financing IDR344.39tn Non-Debt Financing IDR69.01tn
Breakdown of Budget Financing IDR tn US$ bn Government Debt (net)
407.79 31.25
Government Securities (net)
407.89 31.25
Issuance
654.42 50.14
Redemption & Cash Management
(243.54) (18.66)
Debt Portfolio Management
(3.00) (0.23)
Domestic Loans (net)
3.25 0.25
Withdrawal
3.58 0.27
Redemption
(0.33) (0.03)
Foreign Loans (net)
(3.35) (0.26)
Withdrawal
71.02 5.44
Redemption
(74.37) (5.70)
Source: Ministry of Finance. USD/IDR: 13,051 (as of end of October 2016)
51
Government Securities – Financing Plan for 2016
Instruments Revised Budget Indicative Target (IDR bn) Indicative Target (US$ mm)
Government Securities (Net) 407,886 31,253 Redemption 215,089 16,481 Cash Management 27,874 2,136 Buyback 3,000 230 Gov’t Securities Conversion 573 44 Government Securities (Gross) 654,422 50,143 Composition Domestic 78% Auction 63% Non-Auction 15% International Bond 22%
Government Issuance Targets International Bonds
- Issuance of international bonds
as a complement to diversify investor base in domestic market and to avoid crowding
- ut the domestic market
- Provides benchmark for
Indonesia corporate issuances, consisting of USD, JPY and EUR denominated bonds
- Target maximum 27% of
issuance via international bonds
Source: Ministry of Finance
Domestic Bonds
Weekly Auction: Conventional securities 23 x Islamic securities 23 x ATM for Government Securities (SBN) by auction 9-11 years Non-Auction: Retail bonds Sukuk Retail (Q1), SBR1 (Q2), Sukuk Tabungan2 (Q3), and ORI3 (Q4) Private Placement Based on request
Front Loading Issuance For Budget Financing
- Pre-funding to optimize cost ahead of potential Fed rate hikes
- Anticipate developments in global environment
- Target: to front load 74% of the annual budget in 1H16
Government Debt Outstanding (as of end of October 2016)
IDR tn US$ bn Total government debt outstanding 3,440 263.6 Loan 732 56.1 Securities 2,708 207.5 Debt Securities 72% Sukuk 28%
US$/IDR: 13,051 (as of end of Oct., 2016)
1 SBR: “Savings Bond Ritel” or Retail Savings Bond 2 Sukuk Tabungan means Sukuk Savings Bond 3 ORI: “Obligasi Negara Ritel” or Indonesian Retail Bond
52
Disciplined and Sophisticated Debt Portfolio Management
Stable Debt to GDP Ratio Over the Years Weighted Average Debt Maturity of ~9.2 Years (As of Sep. 2016)**
US$ bn
Remarkable Debt Reduction Initiative Over the Past 10 Years
Change in Debt to GDP Ratio (2006 – 2016) (%) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016
Well Diversified Across Different Currencies
% of Yearly Issuance Government Debt / GDP (%) Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance
(1)
Years 131 141 136 155 175 209 69 64 58 54 55 56 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7% 27.4% 27.7% 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Securities (LHS) Loans (LHS) Govt Debt / GDP (%) (RHS) * Revised Budget 2016 Figure, ** Using GDP assumption in 2016 R-Budget, ***SDR, AUD, and other
- 35,3
- 31,9
- 29,0
- 11,2
2,8 11,0 11,4 18,9 29,9 32,9 34,6 40,8 64,9 70,1 117,0
- 60,0
0,0 60,0 120,0 180,0 240,0 300,0 Philippines Turkey Indonesia India Germany Poland Thailand Brazil Italy Colombia Japan Malaysia South Africa United States United Kingdom Chile Australia
9,32 9,70 9,60 9,73 9,40 9,20 9,0 9,3 9,5 9,8 10,0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-16** 55% 56% 53% 57% 56% 58% 22% 24% 29% 29% 31% 29% 17% 14% 12% 9% 8% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Okt-16 IDR USD JPY EUR Others***
53
Well Balanced Maturity Profile With Strong Resilience Against External Shocks
Source: Ministry of Finance
1 Variable Rate Ratio is defined as ratio between debt instruments with variable rate divided by total debt instruments (variable + fixed rates) 2 Refixing Rate ratio is defined as ratio between debt instruments with variable rate + debt instruments with fixed rate maturing in 1 year divided by total debt instruments (variable + fixed rates)
**Using GDP assumption in 2016 R-Budget; **Preliminary figures;
Debt Maturity Profile
% %
Upcoming Maturities (Next 5 Years)
% IDR tn
18,8 16,2 16,0 14,8 13,7 12,1 25,9 22,5 23,2 21,0 20,7 17,6 5 10 15 20 25 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-2016* Variable Rate Ratio¹ Refixing Rate² 10,4 10,2 11,7 10,7 12,2 11,4 45,1 44,4 46,7 43,4 44,5 41,7 10 20 30 40 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-2016* FX Debt to GDP Ratio* FX Debt to Total Debt Ratio 8,2 7,2 8,6 7,7 8,4 6,7 22,7 21,5 21,8 20,1 21,4 22,8 34,6 32,4 33,4 33,9 34,7 36,8 10 20 30 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-2016* In < 1 year In < 3 year In < 5 year
10 129 159 168 100 134 87 93 168 45 126 62 53 100 29 116 46 52 97 5 66 22 22 7 15 26 23 20 25 16 91 108 133 108 122 102 101 84 111 85 25 43 19 18 16 15 15 11 28 4 23 28 1 1 1 31 21 27 27 18
50 100 150 200 250 300
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046- 2055
IDR-Denominated Other Currencies
Declining Interest Rate Risks Declining Exchange Rate Risks
54
30,80 32,98 32,54 38,13 38,12 38,98 38,28 39,39 38,87 39,16 38,4 32,58 30,49 33,76 30,83 37,85 30,48 34,05 32,49 35,02 39,77 37,72 36,63 36,53 33,70 31,04 23,95 30,53 27,63 28,12 26,11 21,07 23,88 20 40 60 80 100 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Feb-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Okt-16 Foreign Holder Domestic Non Banks Domestic Banks
Profile of Total Central Government Debt
Increasing Foreign Ownership of Government Securities at Longer Tenors
(%)
Holders of Government IDR Bonds – Composition October 2016
USD bn 209.41 199.48 204.51 194.55 214.88 224.60 229.70 263.60 255.14
(%)
265.02
2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Loan Government Securities %
74.13 68.82 70.04 75.81 75.73 76.14 77.99 65.66 78.41 78.72 25.87 34.34 31.18 29.96 24.27 23.86 24.19 22.01 21.59 21.28 11,87 7,84 5,2 4,65 3,23 3,04 3,28 2,69 3,02 1,85 24,97 19,32 18,29 18,96 13,1 13,44 12,45 13,73 20,9 20,85 63,16 72,84 76,5 76,39 83,66 83,52 84,27 83,57 76,08 77,31 30,80 32,98 32,54 38,13 38,21 38,94 38,59 39,10 39,16 38,4
20 40 60 80 100 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 0-1 1-5 >5 Foreign Ownership to Total
Government Debt Outstanding
55
Ownership of IDR Tradable Central Government Securities
Description Banks* 375.55 31.04% 350.07 23.95% 361.54 21.95% 420.09 23.88% Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia**) 41.63 3.44% 148.91 10.19% 150.13 9.12% 102.44 5.82% Bank Indonesia (gross) 149.07 9.05% 149.37 8.49% GS used for Monetary Operation
- 1.05
- 0.06%
46.93 2.67% Non-Banks 792.78 65.52% 962.86 65.87% 1135.18 68.93% 1236.73 70.30% Mutual Funds 45.79 3.78% 61.60 4.21% 76.44 4.64% 81.04 4.61% Insurance Company 150.60 12.45% 171.62 11.74% 214.47 13.02% 234.20 13.31% Foreign Holders 461.35 38.13% 558.52 38.21% 643.99 39.10% 675.64 38.40% Foreign Govt's&Central Banks 103.42 8.55% 110.32 7.55% 118.53 7.20% 118.46 6.73% Pension Fund 43.30 3.58% 49.83 3.41% 64.67 3.93% 83.25 4.73% Individual 30.41 2.51% 42.53 2.91% 48.90 2.97% 61.67 3.51% Others 60.51 5.00% 78.50 5.37% 86.72 5.27% 100.93 5.74% Total 1,209.96 100% 1,461.85 100% 1,646.85 100% 1,759.26 100% Dec-14 Dec-15 Jun-16 Oct-16
1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company and Pension Fund. 2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation. *) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia. **) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.
(IDR tn)
56
Government Securities Realization
- Issuance Government Securities Conversion
572,581 572,581
- Matured Government Securities Conversion
572,581 360,814 Nett Issuance Government Securities Conversion 211,767
(IDR mn, as of end of October 2016; budget deficit: 2.7%)
Revised Budget 2016 Widening Budget Deficit 2.7%
Realization (a.o. end of Oct. 2016) % Realization to Budget 2016
Government Securities Net 364,866,887 407,885,860 395,144,832 96.88% Government Securities Maturing in 2016 and Buyback 246,535,735 246,535,735 234,053,977 94.94% Issuance Need for 2016 611,402,622 654,421,595 629,198,809 96.15% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 452,855,157 Domestic GDS 343,816,437
- Coupon GDS
238,320,000
- Conventional T-Bills
49,990,000
- Private Placement*
31,895,977
- Retail Bonds
23,610,460 International Bonds 109,038,720
- USD GMTN
48,643,000
- Euro GMTN
44,975,610
- Samurai Bonds
12,760,910
- Domestic GDS
2,659,200 Government Islamic Debt Securities 176,343,652 Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 142,936,152
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based
Sukuk) 105,801,030
- Retail Sukuk
34,085,122
- Private Placement
3,050,000 Global Sukuk 33,407,500
*Including the issuance of Government Securities Conversion
Credible Monetary Policy Track Record and Favourable Financial Sector Monetary and Financial Factor:
5
58
Bank Indonesia Policy Mix: 2015 - 2016
18 March 2016
- Cut BI Rate 25 bps to
6.75%
- Cut DF & LF Rate at 4.75%
& 7.25% respectively 18 February 2016
- Cut BI Rate 25 bps to
7%
- Cut DF & LF Rate at 5%
& 7.5% resp.
- BI lowered the rupiah
denominated primary reserve requirement by 1%, from 7.5% to 6.5%, effective from 16th March 2016 16 June 2016
- Cut BI Rate 25 bps to 6.5%
- Cut DF & LF Rate at 4.5% & 7.0%
respectively
- Relaxed the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and
financing-to-value ratio (FTV) on housing loans/financing
- Relaxed partially prepaid loans/financing
- Raised the floor on the Reserve
Requirement - Loan to Funding Ratio (RR- LFR) from 78% to 80%, with the ceiling maintained at 92%. The change was effective on August 2016. 21 April 2016
- Held BI Rate at 6.75%, and
maintained DF & LF Rate at 4.75% & 7.25% respectively.
- Reformulated policy rate from
BI Rate into the 7 day (Reverse) Repo Rate to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. The change was effective on August 19th 2016 14 January 2016
- Cut BI Rate 25 bps to
7.25%
- Cut DF & LF Rate at
5.25% & 7.75% resp.
- BI lowered its monetary
- peration rates even
further, ranging from 25bps to 45bps (O/N to 1Y) 19 August 2016
- Held BI 7-day RR
Rate and DF Rate at 5.25% and 4.5%
- Cut LF Rate to
6.00%. 21 July 2016
- Held BI Rate at 6.5%, & maintained BI
7-day RR Rate, DF & LF Rate at 5.25%, 4.5% & 7.00% respectively.
- BI continued to conduct financial
market deepening by introducing new investment & hedging products in the financial market, strengthened monetary management strategies, & encouraged the real sector to make
- ptimal use of repatriation funds to
support the implementation of the 2016 Tax Amnesty Law 17 November 2015 Lowered IDR Primary RR by 50bps from 8.0% to 7.5%. Effective since 1 Dec 2015 22 September 2016
- Lowered BI 7-day
RR Rate to 5.0%
- Lowered DF and
LF Rate to 4.25% and 5.75% 20 October 2016
- Lowered BI 7-day RR
Rate to 4.75%
- Lowered DF and LF Rate
to 4.00% and 5.50% 17 November 2016 Held BI 7-day RR Rate at 4.75%, DF Rate at 4.00% and LF Rate at 5.5 %.
59
Bank Indonesia Policy Mix: November 2016
The BI Board of Governors agreed on 17 November 2016 to hold the BI 7-days Repo Rate at 4.75%, as well as the Deposit Facility at 4.00% and cut the Lending Facility rates to 5.50% Holds the BI 7- day Repo Rate at 4.75% Convinces that the transmission of looser monetary and macroprudential policies will continue and boost credit as well as other financing growth to support stronger economic growth moving forward Remains vigilant towards global developments, recovery signs of US economy and the possibilty of Federal Funds Rate (FFR) hike, limited growth in advanced countries including the European Union (EU), the possibility of China and India to drive the global economy, also the continuation of the international commodity prices improvement Continues to coordinate with the Government with a focus on safeguarding supply and distribution, especially of the basic necessities, while managing inflation expectationsth Maintains exchange rate stability in line with the currency’s fundamental value by maintating market mechanisms. Believes more muted growth in the fourth quarter, in line with fiscal consolidation, at around 5% and projects for the expanding growth in the 5.0-5.4% range in 2017.
60
Enhancement of Monetary Operations Framework
Bank Indonesia will enhance the monetary operations framework that is supported by the deepening of the financial markets in order to strengthen the transmission of monetary policy.
BI RATE
- BI
Rate reflects monetary policy stance as a tool to anchor economic agent’ inflation expectations
- BI Rate is used as a benchmark
interest rate for transactions in financial markets and eventually to influence general interest rate
- BI
Rate effectively affect banking interest rate
- Excess
liquidity due to massive capital inflows post 2008 global financial crisis draw down overnight interbank rates around DF Rate. Meanwhile, the BI rate is currently around 9-12 months OM instrument.
- The shallow financial markets also
inhibit the transmission of monetary policy.
CHALLENGES ENHANCEMENT
BI rate as reference rate Challenges: Transmission of monetary policy is less effective Enhancement of monetary operations framework 12 months (equivalent) 7 day Non-Transactional Transactional (Central Bank) Not optimally reflected in money market interest rates Stronger relationship to the money market interest rates Cost of being illiquid is lower, support financial deepening BI rate BI 7-day repo rate OMO term structure Character Transmission Financial Deepening Cost of being illiquid is too high, does not support financial deepening
61
Stable Monetary Environment Despite Challenges
Source: Bank Indonesia
Rupiah Exchange Rate Remains Comparable to Peers
YTD 2016* vs. 2015
Strengthened Monetary Policy Framework
(%)
Credit Growth Supported by Macroprudential Policy Downward Trend of Inflation Ensured Price Stability
8.0% 4.2% 6.5% 9.1% YoY
LF Rate: 7.00 LF Rate: 5.50 BI Rate: 6.50 BI 7Day RR Rate: 4.75 DF Rate: 4.50 DF Rate: 4.00
19 August 2016
The New Monetary Operation Framework * data as of 31 October 2016
- 5,66
- 3,19
- 0,94
0,41 2,38 2,73 2,97 5,65 14,86 24,02
- 8,00
- 3,00
2,00 7,00 12,00 17,00 22,00 27,00 TRY PHP INR EUR MYR KRW THB IDR ZAR BRL %
3.31 0.17
(%)
3.08 7.54
- 1
4 9 14 19 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CPI (%, yoy) Core (%, yoy) Volatile Food (%, yoy) Administered (%, yoy) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Growth Working Capital loans Investment Loans Consumption Loans 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Okt-16 Nov-16 LF Rate BI Rate BI-7Day RR Rate DF Rate
62
Financial Intermediaries Development
The has been an improvement in the growths of bank loan & multifinance financing, in line with the improving growth in H2-2016. Capital raising from the capital market is relatively stable amidst the fluctuating market. Meanwhile, gross premium in the insurance industry is continuously expanding.
Source: OJK
The growth of financing distributed by multifinance companies demonstrates an improvement as well, after contracting in 2015 Gross premium revenue in the domestic insurance industry also demonstrates a positive development in 2016 Capital raising through IPOs, rights issues, and corporate bond issuance in the capital market is relatively stable After four consecutive years of declining growth (2012-2015), there is a slight improvement in banking loan growth in 2016
IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn IDR mn
63
Financial Institutions Remain Robust and Less Vulnerable
Source: OJK
Banking sector’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is maintained high Risk-based capital (RBC) of the insurance industry also remains high, well above the minimum threshold Gearing ratio of multifinance companies is well below the maximum requirement, providing ample room for future growth Profitability of the banking sector is relatively stable
Financial performance of domestic financial institutions generally remains robust. Capital adequacy is well above the minimum
- requirements. Profitability and leverage are maintained at a sufficient level. Further, gearing (debt-to-equity) ratio of multifinance
companies provides ample room for future growth.
% %
64
Adequate Liquidity, Manageable Credit Risks
Source: OJK
Banks are found to possess adequate liquid assets to anticipate depositors’ withdrawal. Insurance industry also demonstrates an enhanced level of investment adequacy ratio. The non-performing loan/financing (NPF/NPL) ratio is also maintained below the threshold.
The ratio of liquid assets to deposits in the banking sector is well maintained at a high level Non-performing loan (NPL) in the banking sector remains at a low level. The gross & net NPL ratio are 3.2% & 1.5% respectively NPF ratio in the multifinance industry is 2.2%, maintained below the 5% threshold Investment adequacy ratio in the insurance industry is maintained above 100%
% %
65
Manageable Market Risk Amidst Fluctuations
Source: OJK
Being exposed to fluctuations in the securities market and IDR exchange rate, financial institutions demonstrated resilience in dealing with such risks. Net open position of the banking sector remains low, while the investment value of domestic institutional investors (mutual funds, insurers, and pension funds) continues to expand. Multifinance companies’ exposures to the exchange risks have generally been mitigated through hedging measures.
Net open position in the banking sector is kept far below the maximum requirement (20%) Amidst the fluctuating market in recent periods, the investment value of insurers & pension funds continues to expand Multifinance companies’ exposures to foreign debt have generally been mitigated through hedging measures The movement of mutual funds’ net asset value (NAV) is in line with the market index, but with much lower volatility
IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn IDR tn
66
Capital Market Demonstrate Strengthening Trend
Volatility in the domestic capital market tends to ease in 2016. The market indices are back to a strengthening trend, accompanied by significant nonresident capital inflows. In the government bond market, 2016 also witnessed a remarkable decline in the bond yields.
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA, Indonesia Stock Exchange, Ministry of Finance
Both the stock & bond indices demonstrated a strengthening index in 2016, supported by favorable domestic environment In line with the stabilizing IDR and improving domestic prospects, the government bond yield continues to decline Despite uncertain external factor, favorable domestic environment attracts nonresident inflow especially in Q3 The IDX Composite Index demonstrated a positive growth and listed among the best-performing indices (ytd) in the region
Yield (%) IDR tn
67
Macroprudential Policy Mix to Support Growth
Effective from August 29th, 2016, Bank Indonesia relaxed the Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) and Financing to Value Ratio (FTV) on housing loans at 85-90% for the first mortgage lending facility, 80-85% for the second mortgage lending facility, and 75-80% for the third mortgage lending facility.
Housing Loans and Financing Based on Murabahah and Istishna Contracts
Property type (m2) Lending/Financing Facility First Second Third House >70 m2 85% 80% 75% 22 - 70 m2
- 85%
80% <21 m2
- Apartment
>70 m2 85% 80% 75% 22 - 70 m2 90% 85% 80% <21 m2
- 85%
80% Home Shop/Office
- 85%
80%
Housing Financing Based on MMQ and IMBT Contracts
Property type (m2) Lending/Financing Facility First Second Third House >70 m2 90% 85% 80% 22 - 70 m2
- 90%
85% <21 m2
- Apartment
>70 m2 90% 85% 80% 22 - 70 m2 90% 85% 80% <21 m2
- 85%
80% Home Shop/Office
- 85%
80% The relaxation is only applicable to banks with nett NPL for total loan below 5% and gross NPL for property loan/financing below 5%. The rationale is to stimulate domestic demand in order to drive domestic economic growth momentum while maintaining compliance to prudential principles.
68
A Comprehensive Financial Deepening Program
...strategy to tackle challenges in deepening Indonesia’s financial markets
Source: Bank Indonesia
Financial Market Deepening Program
First Priority: Continuous Basis Market Development Coordination Monitoring, match making, and solution:
- Repo
- Hedging
Money Market
- Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) on Money Market
Encourage well-functioning money market (deep and efficient, risk mitigation, and market integrity),
- Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) on Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NCD)
Enriching money market instruments, encourage banks to raise long term funding, and acts as an alternative investment for investors
- Bank Indonesia Regulation (PBI) on Commercial Paper
Alternative sources of financing for non-bank corporations, as well as an investment outlet for investors FX Market
- Swap Link Deposit
a combination of foreign currency deposits with FX Swap against the rupiah.
- Dual Currency Deposit
a combination of assets (deposits) and derivatives (FX Options).
- Corporate Bonds
- Government
Bonds
- Other instruments
Supporting Regulations
Market Code of Conduct Certification of Dealer Strengthening JIBOR
- More comprehensive code of conduct
- The use of technology and public security
- Obligation on certification for dealers
- Dealers’ training for certification
- Extension of window time
- Increase in IDR nominal
- Lengthening tenor of up to 3 months
Inter-agency Cooperation
Signing of MoU on April 8th, 2016, between MoF, BI, and OJK on Coordination in the Context of Financial Markets Development and Deepening to Support National Development Financing The Signing of this MoU is driven by the need for:
- Sufficient development financing,
- Financial markets deepening, and
- Good coordination among related institutions
69
Stronger Fundamentals Facing the Headwinds
- 197
- 35
5,62
1998 2008 Sep 16 82,4 12,1 6,8 1998 2008 Sep-15 30,0 3,8 2,8 1998 2008 Agu-15 17,4 50,2 1998 2008 Sep-15
Inflation Rate (%) IDR Movement (%) Non-Performing Loan/NPL (%) Government Debt/GDP Foreign Reserves (USD bn)
100.0% 1998 27.4% 2008 17.9% Q3-2016 8.6x 1998 3.1x 2008 2.8x Q3-2016 116.8% 1998 33.2% 2008 35.8% Q3-2016
More Liquid Market (%) External Debt (Public & Private) to FX Reserve Ratio External Debt/GDP
Inflation controlled within the target range Strengthening IDR with appreciation in 2016 NPL level is below the maximum threshold of 5% Continue to decline and allocated to productive sectors Significantly higher than 1998 & 2008, ample to cover 8.4 months of import and external debt repayment Significantly lower than 1998 crisis Slightly higher than 2008, but significantly lower than 1998
Oct 16
115.0
Oct 16
3.31 (yoy)
Sep 16
3.1
62 10,5 5,7 1998 2008 Jul-15
Overnight interbank money market rate is relatively lower
Oct 16
4.55 5,65 (ytd)
Oct 16
70
Outlook of Domestic Economy Improves
...domestic economic growth is predicted to be higher in 2016
2016 Economic Outlook
Economic growth expected to increase, supported by fiscal stimulus linked specifically to accelerated infrastructure project
- development. Private investment is expected to increase as a result of government policy packages and measurable
monetary easing
Inflation projected at the midpoint of the 4±1% inflation target, with the current account deficit is projected below
2% of GDP
Credit is projected to grow 7-9% in line with looser monetary and macroprudential policy mix as well as acceleration of
fiscal stimulus
2015 2016 4.79%
Economic Growth
4.9-5.3%
Inflation
3.35% 4.0±1%
CAD (% GDP)
2.06% <2%
Credit Growth
10.45% 7-9%
Strong Commitment on Acceleration of Infrastructure Provision Progressive Infrastructure Development:
6
72
The Government has Enacted Various Reforms to Accelerate Infrastructure Provision
- Investing in Indonesian
infrastructure has been regarded as risky
- Uncertain returns on
investment
- Did not have any fiscal
mechanisms to support the infrastructure investment Lack of leadership to implement the changes needed Indonesia regulatory corpus has been characterized by some ambiguities and conflicting regulations
Fiscal Reforms Institutional Reforms Regulatory Reforms
Indonesia now has fiscal supports:
- Viability Gap Fund (VGF)
- Availability Payment
- Land revolving fund
- Risk-sharing scheme
Revised regulations on:
- PPP, Availability Payment
- Direct Lending
- Land Acquisition
- Other deleregulations as
listed in the Economic Policy Packages Institutional strengthening covers establishment and empowerment
- f:
- KPPIP
- Empowerment of PT SMI &
IIGF
- PPP
Supported by improving awareness of Indonesia infrastructure issues, convergent reforms are bulding a better business environment for tomorrow’s investment
Before After
Source: KPPIP
73
Reforms Along the Project’s Life Cycle
...to encourage and accelerate infrastructure project using PPP scheme
Government of Indonesia
Project Development Facility (PDF) Viability Funding Gap (VGF) Guarantee Fund Tax Facilities Availability Payment Land Acquisition
Preparation Bidding Process Construction
Project development facility contributing to assist GCA on PPP project preparation (PDF&TA) Managing entity: KPPIP, PT SMI PT IIF, and Ministry of Finance A facility with contribution to construction cost to increase project financial viability Managing Entitiy: Ministry of Finance based
- n GCA
proposal Govt. Commitment: 49% max. Per project cost Guaranteeing
- Govt. contractual
- bligations
under infrastructure concession agreements and Mof Regulation No 130/PMK. 08/2016 re: Govt guarantee for electricity project acceleration Managing entity: IIGF and MoF Govt’s comitment: US$ 450 mn MoF Reg. No. 159/PMK. 010/2015 re: tax holiday for pioneer sector, such as base metal, oil refinery, basic petrochemical, machinery, renewable energy, & telco equipment
- industries. Sector
will be further expanded Managing entitiy: Ministry of Finance A scheme in which concessionaires receive sum of money periodically from government after the completion
- f an asset. Ministry
- f Finance
Regulation on Availability Payment has been ratified Managing entity: Ministry of Finance A facility to support land acquisition for infrastructure projects particularly projects that involve private sector Managing enitiy: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agrarian and Land Spatial/BPN and BLU-LMAN Govt commitment: US$ 12 mn (2016) Source: KPPIP
74
Efforts to Accelerate Infrastructure Provision
Improvement on PPP Regulation
- By taking into account the growth of PPP project potential, the Government of Indonesia has revised the Presidential Regulation No. 67 of 2005
- n PPP and its amendments by issuing the new Presidential Regulation No. 38 of 2015 on PPP on 20 March 2015.
- This new Presidential Regulation addresses the constraints which contributes to delays in PPP implementation, such as: PPP for the social
infrastructure; a low quality of pre-feasibility studies; gaps of quality in assets that were partly constructed by the Government; unattractive investment return scheme; and weak Ministries/Institutions commitment for PPP projects. The Ministry of National Development Planning has issued the Ministerial Regulation No. 4 of 2015 on the implementation Procedures for a Public-Private Partnership in Infrastructure Provision. This Ministerial Regulation is a derivative regulation to supplement the Presidential Regulation No. 38 of 2015 on PPP.
Source: Committee for Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (KPPIP)
75
Efforts to Accelerate Infrastructure Provision (continued)
Regulation improvement to accelerate land procurement process
- The Government of Indonesia issued Law No. 2 of 2012 on Land Acquisition for Public Interest, with a purpose to provide certainty about the land
acquisition duration for the Government Contracting Agencies and the Investors. The Law sets an estimated 583 days maximum time to complete the land acquisition process.
- For its implementation, the Law No. 2 of 2012 was supported by the Presidential
Regulation No. 71 of 2012 on Land Acquisition Implementation for Developing Public Facilities, which has been revised into the Presidential Regulation No. 30 of 2015. The Amendment to the Regulation allows a Business Entity to allocate funding for a land acquisition which can be reimbursed by the Government following the completion of land acquisition process. With this Regulation, the land acquisition process is expected not to be delayed by the unallocated budget or the delay on the budget disbursement.
Land Procurement Process as Stipulated in Law No. 2 of 2012 Source: KPPIP
Law No. 2/2012 was successfully applied in:
- 1. Palembang – Indralaya section of the Trans
Sumatera Toll Road Project
- 2. Java North Line Double Track Rail Project
76
Significant Progress on Key Infrastructure Projects
Roads Dams Housing
Trans-Sumatra Highway Merah Putih Bridge, Ambon Jatigede Dam (Operational) Raja Ampat Housing Project, Papua
Transportation
Jakarta MRT Project2 Terminal 3 Ultimate Soekarno-Hatta2 New Tanjung Priok Port Project2 Komodo Airport, NTT Matahora Airport, Southeast Sulawesi Tual Airport, Maluku Juwata Airport, Tarakan
1 Source: KPPIP 2 Not funded from National Budget
Progress of National Strategic Project (as of August 2016)1 38% 37% 11% 6% 8% 25 projects is being reassessed
14 projects is completed* 83 projects is under construction 17 projects is during transaction 86 projects is in preparation *Gempol-Pandaan Toll Road, Sentani Airport, Juwata Airport, Matahora Airport, Labuan Bajo Airport, SHIA Terminal 3, Kalibaru Port, Belawan-Sei Mangkei Gas Pipe, Rajul Dam, Jatigede Dam, Bajulmati Dam, Nipah Dam and Titab Dam
77
30 Priority Projects Within the Pipeline
Source: KPPIP
1. Balikpapan-Samarinda Toll Road 2. Manado-Bitung Toll Road 3. Panimbang-Serang Toll Road 4. Trans-Sumatera Toll Road (8 Sections) 5. SHIA Express Railway 6. MRT Jakarta South-North Line 7. Makassar-Parepare Railway 8. Kuala Tanjung International Port Hub 9. Bitung International Port Hub 10. Karangkates IV & V (2x250MW) Hydro-Electric Plant 11. Kesamben (37MW) Hydro-Electric Plant 12. Lodoyo (10MW) Hydro-Electric Plant 13. Inland Waterways Cikarang-Bekasi-Laut (CBL) 14. Light Rail Transit (LRT) South Sumatera 15. Integrated LRT Jakarta-Depok-Bogor-Bekasi 16. National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) Phase A 17. Jakarta Sewerage System 18. West Semarang Water Supply 19. High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) 20. Sumatera 500 kV Transmission Line 21. Central-West Java 500 kV Transmission Line 22. Batang, Central Java Powerplant 23. Indramayu Powerplant 24. Mine to Mouth Powerplant Sumatera Selatan 8-10 25. Bontang Refinery 26. Revitalization of the Existing Refineries (Balikpapan, Cilacap, Balongan, Dumai, Plaju) 27. New Port Development in West Java (North Part) 28. Tuban Refinery 29. Palapa Ring Broadband 30. East Kalimantan Railway Construction Transaction Preparation Reassessed 8 5 9 18 17 13 23 25 26 27 28 30 16 10 1 3 2 4 6 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 15 14 20 21 22 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 11 12 19 24
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Energy Sector: the Progress of 35.000 MW Program
No Phase MW % 1 Planning 7,640 20.83 2 Procurement 10,844 29.56 3 Power-purchase Agreement 9,790 26.69 4 Construction 8,215 22.39 5 Commercial Operation Date 195 0.53
17 Dec ‘14
Cabinet Meeting “There’s electricity crisis in Indonesia, requires construction
- f large capacity plant "
Jan ‘15
Average economic growth of 6.7% requires 7,000 MW / year or 35,000 MW / 5 years (Kepmen ESDM No. 0074/2015 on RUPTL 2015-2024)
Jan ‘15
Debottlenecking through regulation: 1. Regulation No.1/2015 concerning electricity supply cooperation and joint utilization of the electrical network among license holders. 2. Regulation No.3/2015, concerning Procedures
- f Purchasing Electrical Power and benchmark
prices for Electrical Power through the Direct Selection and Appointment.
16 Mar ‘15 4 May ‘15 Sept ‘16
Cabinet Meeting Progress of 35,000 MW Launching 35.000 MW by the President in Goa Beach Sanden DIY The progress so far:
Source: KPPIP
Sulawesi PLN: 2,000 MW Private: 1,470 MW Transmission: 5,275 ckt.km Substation: 4,390 MVA Maluku PLN: 260 MW Private: 12 MW Transmission: 653 ckt.km Substation: 620 MVA Papua PLN : 220 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 364 ckt.km Substation: 460 MVA Kalimantan PLN: 900 MW Private: 1,735 MW Transmission: 5,604 ckt.km Substation: 3,500 MVA Nusa Tenggara PLN: 670 MW Private: 0 MW Transmission: 2,347 ckt.km Substation: 1,410 MVA Sumatera PLN: 1,100 MW Private: 8,990 MW Transmission: 18,729 ckt.km Substation: 35,521 MVA Jawa & Bali PLN: 5,000 MW Private: 13,697 MW Transmission: 9,185 ckt.km Substation: 66,265 MVA
35,000 MW Program Distribution
Source: PLN
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Infrastructure Financing
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Source: Bappenas
129.75 SOE
Private 208.72 78.98 Financing Needs Gov’t Budget Financing Gap 355.27 146.55 (billion USD)* 41,25% 58,75% 22,23% 36,52% 100%
Infrastructure Financing Need 2015-2019 General criteria for financing schemes
- Government Budget is used for basic infrastructure projects, mainly
for projects that are economically feasible but financially not.
- SOE scheme is used for projects managed under SOEs (electricity,
toll roads, oil, etc.) to leverage public funding channeled through capital injections (PMN) and empower SOEs
- PPP scheme in mainly targeted for projects that are both
economically and financially feasible. The government can provide financial facilites to support PPP & SOE schemes
*) USD1=IDR13500 (APBNP 2016)
PPP scheme and facilities provided to PPP Projects
- The government may appoint certain SOEs to assign specific
infrastructure projects
- To support the infrastructure provision through the SOEs, the
government provide a number of financial facilities, such as:
- Capital Injection (PMN)
- Lending
- Credit Guarantees
- Guarantees for SOE Direct Lending
- Business Viability Guarantees
Financial Facilities Provided to Infrastructure SOEs
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Financing the Acceleration of Infrastructure Development
- Acceleration of public infrastructure development is partly translated into programs to increase private participation and SOEs involvement
in the development of public infrastructure.
- Ministry of Finance provide a number of financial facilities to attract more private participation as well as to increase the capacity of SOEs
in developing public infrastructure.
Guarantees Amount of Guarantees (IDR mn) Outstanding Exposures (IDR mn) Number of Guarantees Fast Track Project 1 87,871.54 50,821.29 36 PDAM 328.30 181.32 11 PPP 42,176.00 6,608.98 1 FTP 2 66,982.93 16,538.24 10 SOE Direct Lending 14,498.00 1,581.60 2 Sumatra Toll Roads 1,721.34
- 2
Total 213,578.10 75,731.42 62
Financial Facilities for PPP Projects Financial Facilities for Non-PPP Projects
- Project Development Facility (PDF)
- Viability Gap Fund (VGF)
- Government Guarantees (provided directly by MoF or
through IIIGF)
- Availability Payment scheme
- Government guarantees to SOEs’ loans from IFIs for
the Development Infrastructure Projects
- Government guarantees to SOEs’ loans for the
development of Sumatra Toll Roads
- Business Viability Guarantee Letter for PT. PLN power
projects
- Credit guarantees for Regional Water Companies
So far, the government has provided a number of guarantees to PPP and non-PPP projects as well as developed close monitoring to maintain the fiscal sustainability. The issued guarantees are currently as follows:
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Progress on PPP-Schemed Infrastructure Projects
With a new PPP unit already established in the Ministry of Finance and some financial facilities are already in place, PPP projects started to show some real progresses. There are 3 projects already reached financial close in 2016 and
- ne more to come in November
- 2016. Another project will reach
financial close in March 2017 Other projects are on the final stage of progress (PPP and guarantee contracts have been signed). Some significant numbers are on the final RFP while
- thers are still on the
preliminary stage.
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Progress of SOE Projects: Facility for Non-PPP Projects
The government issued government guarantees to loans of PT. Hutama Karya in the development of Sumatra Toll Road, which comprise as follow: Progress of projects benefiting from guarantees on SOE direct lending: Projects benefiting from guarantees on SOE loans: Other guarantees that have been provided to SOE projects:
No. Project Name Project Cost (USD) Lender SOE Status 1 Sumatera Power Transmission and Distribusion 600 mn ADB
- PT. PLN
Guarantee is effective 2 Sumatera Power Distribution 500 mn World Bank
- Pt. PLN
Guarantee is issued but still inneffctive 3 The Enhancement of Electricity Grid 330 mn IDB
- PT. PLN
Proposal has been submitted