Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes Habibeh Valizadeh, Shattri B. - - PDF document

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Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes

Habibeh Valizadeh, Shattri B. Mansor Husaini Omar and Farid Azad Department of Civil Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia Serdang, Selangor Malaysia shattri@eng.upm.edu.my Recently, new theories on underground geophysical and geochemical interactions occur during preparation stages of earthquakes and the resultant measurable variations have been put into test and some warning factors were suggested as earthquake precursors. In case of oceanic and coastal earthquakes, with thinner crust, these pre-earthquake activities may be detected through secondary oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon.

Introduction Introduction

Earthquake Precursor ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ Earthquake Prediction

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Earthquakes? Earthquakes?

Are they really predictable?

• Vibrations in the earth are caused by sudden release
• f energy.
• This energy is produced somewhere within the crust.
• Its formation and existence produce phenomena

under, on and above the ground.

• Satellite-based measurements and ground
• bservation networks can be specialized to monitor

the earthquakes-related changes.

Earthquake Precursors Earthquake Precursors

• Temperature anomalies
• SLHF (higher atmosphere-surface energy exchange)
• Chl-a concentration
• Radon gas emission
• Crust Deformations
• Strange cloud formation
• Seismic pattern

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Frequency and distribution( 1973-2012) Frequency and distribution( 1973-2012)

Earthquake event

Seismology Remote Sensing In-situ measurement Short Term Hours/Days/Weeks Long Term Months/Years/Decade

Earthquake precursors prior to the event

(Hours/Days/Weeks)

Remote Sensing

Our concern is:

Earthquake Precursors Earthquake Precursors

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Monitoring the Precursors

Attenuation of received signals. Significant seasonal and natural changes on the surface

masking the earthquake-related anomalies.

Anomalies due to human activities. Limited knowledge on the local fault regime; earthquake

formation site and places of vibration.

Low resolution remote sensing data and insufficient number

• f ground stations.

Free available remote sensing data covering large scales allow

monitoring the earth’s surface.

Data providers produce high-quality and trustable data using

in-situ measurement networks and validation models.

Possibilities Problems

Statistical analysis, visual inspection, abnormality detection, mapping the spatial distribution of variations Detection of the concurrent precursors, determination of active faulting Descriptive Analysis Seismographs Space- based data Fault maps and tectonic information Historical shakes Identifying the available maps, remote sensing data, reanalysis information, fault distribution maps and geological setting Determining the suitable precursors Recognizing of the Suspected Area for future quakes Expected results Assessing the extents of the earthquake area and the possibility of monitoring seismic activity from satellite data for the case study area Evaluation of the available earthquake preparation theories by concurrencies of RS-based precursors and seismic records Analytical Analysis

• Earthquake characteristics
• Minor shake mapping
• Seismic gaps
• Statistical analysis
• Long-term prediction

Area Characterization

Workflow Workflow

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Data Data

Data

Chlorophyll-a from MODIS Upwelling Indices from PFEL Surface Latent Heat Flux from NCEP Surface Temperature from ASTER, AVHRR or AMSR-E

NCEP: National Center for Environmental Prediction ASTER: Advanced Spaceborn Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer AVHRR: Advanced Very High Resolusion Radiometer AMSR: Advanced Microwave Scaning Radiometer MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrodiometer PFEL: Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory

Oceanic Case Studies

10

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Earthquake of California 2005

11

10 12 14 16 18 20 1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug SST deg.c

2005 1994-2003 Sigma 2 Sigma

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug Surface Heat Flux (w.m-2)

2005 2000-2004

Time series

• f

thermal anomalies at the epicenter

• f the California earthquake

showing high values a month before the main

• event. dashed line is the 10-

year average of SST for the region. Temporal variation in SLHF

• f the California earthquake

covering the epicenter pixel showing increase in some

• ccasions prior to the main

event; dashed line is the 5- last-year average of SLHF for the region.

Changes in SLHF

12

Spatio-temporal variation in SLHF prior and after the main event of the Northern California earthquake.

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SST Anomalies

13

16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 6 Jun 7 Jun 8 Jun 9 Jun 10 Jun 1 Jun 2 Jun 3 Jun 4 Jun 5 Jun

Chl-a concentration in the ocean are intimately linked with the SST. Sudden changes in Chl-a distribution arises from sudden changes of sea thermal structure.

Variation of Chl-a

14

1 Jun 2 Jun 3 Jun 4 Jun 5 Jun 6 Jun 7 Jun 9 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun

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Upwelling Index

15

• 600
• 400
• 200

200 400 600 1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug Upwelling Index (m3/s/100m)

2005 1995-2004

1 2 3 4 5 1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug Chl 8d Composite

2005 2006-2011

Daily averaged upwelling index for Northern California earthquake showing maximum rise some days prior to the main event; dashed line is the 10-year average

• f

upwelling index for the region. 8-day averaged Chl-a for Northern California earthquake showing some high Chl-a matched the upwelling in terms of location and time; dashed line is the 6- year average of Chl-a for the region.

Two major factors which cause rising in Chl-a concentration are ocean upwelling and sea surface temperature both of which are pre seismic indicators.

Earthquake of California 2004

16

• 100
• 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct Upwelling Index (m3/s/100m) 2004 1994-2003 Sigma 20 40 60 80 100 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct Surface Heat Flux (w.m-2) 2004 10 15 20 25 30 35 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct Surface Temperature deg.c 2004 1994-2003 Sigma 2 Sigma

The anomalous SLHF values before and during the earthquake of September 28, 2004; Red bar indicates the day of the main event. Time series of surface temperature; shows several anomalies during the preparation stage and sudden fall after the main event. Daily averaged upwelling index, showing rises before the main event.

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Variation of Chl-a

17 2 Sep 5 Sep 8 Sep 14 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep 1 Oct 4 Oct 7 Oct

Temporal distribution of Chl-a concentration ; the increasing trend to the day of the event and general decrease in the area afterwards is obvious.

Earthquake of California 2003

1 8

13 14 15 16 17 18 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan Surface Temperature deg.c 2003 1994-2003 Sigma 2 Sigma 40 80 120 160 200 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan Surface Heat Flux (w.m-2) 2003 1998-2002

• 600
• 500
• 400
• 300
• 200
• 100

100 200 300 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan Upwelling Index (m3/s/100m) 2003 1993- 2002 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan Chl-a 8d Composite 2003 2004-2006 Sigma 2 Sigma

Daily averaged upwelling index and 8-day composite Chlorophyll-a time series, showing anomalies in some occasions from one month before the main event followed by a sudden downwelling and Chl-a decrease immediately after that. The SST and SLHF time series of the epicentral oceanic water of the earthquake of December 22, 2003 generally higher before the earthquake. The effect of aftershocks during the second half of December is also shown.

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10 15 20 25 30 35 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct

Surface Temperature deg.c 2004 1994-2003 Sigma 2 Sigma

20 40 60 80 100 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct

Surface Heat Flux (w.m-2)

2004 1999-2003

FLH = LvCeUa (qs − qa)

FLH: Surface evaporation Lv: Latent heat of condensation Ce: Surface exchange coefficient for moisture Ua: Surface wind speed, Qs: Saturated specific humidity at ocean surface Qa: Air specific humidity at 2 m above the surface. Ts: LST ε: Surface emissivity γ and δ: two parameters dependent on the Planck’s function ψ1, ψ2, and ψ3 : Referred to as atmospheric functions (AFs)

Thermal and Heat Thermal and Heat

Increased Chl-a on ocean surface Increased Chl-a on ocean surface

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0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan

Chl-a 8d Composite 10-Yr Average Sigma 2 Sigma

• 600
• 400
• 200

200 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan Upwelling Index (m3/s/100m)

Chl-a & Upwelling Chl-a & Upwelling Increased SLHF & active faults zones Increased SLHF & active faults zones

50 100 150 200 250 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 16-Mar 31-Mar SLHF (W/m2) 2008 2000-2007 Sigma 2 Sigma

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Earthquakes of Indonesia

No. Place Date Longitude Latitude Magnitude Focal Depth (km) 1 Simeulue, Indonesia Feb 20, 2008 95.978 E 2.778 N 7.4 35 2 Kepulauan, Indonesia Feb 25, 2008 100.018 E 2.351 S 7.2 35

50 100 150 200 250 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 16-Mar 31-Mar SLHF (W/m2) 2008 2000-2007 Sigma 2 Sigma

Sharp rises in SLHF values of the pixels covering the epicenter of 25th Feb, 2008 earthquake is observable from the end of January to few days before the main event. Red bar is the day of the main event. Images of SSH retrieved from AMSR-E in the Indian Ocean during the Simeulue and Kepulauan earthquakes

• f

February, 2008 showing significant rises near epicenters

• ne week before and during the

earthquake events.

SSH and SLHF Anomalies

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Seismic study Seismic study

micro-shake detection using seismograph interpretation: Evaluating the shaking rate before the main events Understanding the possible hidden fault pattern and local faulting activity by statistical analyses of the various information, related to foreshocks and aftershocks. Discovering the time and intensity frames of the possible correlation between seismic and remote sensing precursors.

The systematic patterns of SLHF along earthquake origins. Relative humidity, surface and air temperature values are warning signals of an impending earthquake (2-3 weeks prior to the main event). 2-3 weeks before the earthquakes the productivity rate of the

• pen ocean water exceeded the average values.

Findings Findings

16-05-2013 14 Remote sensing techniques allow monitoring the earthquake precursory factors anomalies over large areas to detect tectonic activity and understand the mechanism

• f

earthquake preparation processes to provide possibilities of a reliable prediction of these potential precursors in different parts of the world.

Benefits

For further information please contact: Shattri Mansor Remote Sensing & GIS Research Centre Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 UPM Serdang Phone: +6019 - 2244333 E-mail: shattri@eng.upm.edu.my

Q & A??