Harnessing Indias Gas Potential- Resources & Challenges to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Harnessing India’s Gas Potential- Resources & Challenges to accelerate domestic Production

Dr.V K Rao

RESOURCES OF NATURAL GAS The Indian Scenario

CONVENTIONAL GAS RESOURCES Prognosticated : 400 TCF GIIP Established : 150 TCF Percentage Conversion : 37.5% UNCONVENTIONAL GAS RESOURCES CBM Prognosticated : 91.8 TCF GIIP Established :9.9 TCF Percentage Conversion : 10.78% Shale Gas Prognosticated :200-600TCF Possible Recoverables: 130-150 Tcf Yet to explore & establish Gas Hydrates

Probable Resources :1894 TCM (mainly east coast)

Prognosticated GIP Established Conv.Factor %

Current Production MMSCMD

Major Discovery Areas

Conventional 400 150 37.5 92

East Coast Offshore, West Coast offshore K-G Basin, Assam-Arakan region

Unconventional ** CBM 92 10 10.86 0.77

Raniganj Jharia Sohagpur

Shale Gas 600 68 11.3 NIL

Gondwana Cambay Basin K-G Basin

TOTAL

1092 228 ** Gas Hydrate Resources are prognosticated around 1894TCM

Scenario of Natural Gas Resources vis-à-vis production trends

(In TCF)

84 90 127 141 126 94 94 93 95 101 111 120 128

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production (MMSCMD)

Domestic Natural Gas Production Scenario over the Years

Projected

Stagnant Domestic Production??

• Despite having a substantial Resource potential,

the Discoveries have not kept pace in upgradation of prognosticated to Established in Place

• Lack of infrastructure and delayed

implementation aspects have also hindered in exploitation of CBM gas in Eastern part of India

• Delayed development & monetisation of

Marginal fields

• Gas pricing policy and other Policy issues

242 265 289 320 378 409 438 455 490 516 544 571 598 625 654 684 714 746 45 64 85 123 143 205 218 218 218 218 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 101 102 111 120 157 161 166 171 176 182 187 193 198 204 211 217 223 230 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Demand MMSCMD Imports MMSCMD Domestic Prodn: MMSCMD

MMSCMD

Trajectory of Demand and Supply

Source: Vision Document PNGRB 2013

Source: ICFI

NOCs to explore Shale Gas in their Nominated blocks

(CBM & SHALE GAS Journey)

CBM- nascent stages

• A total 33 Blocks are

awarded in 4 Bid Rounds

• Total CBM area covered

18,540 sq kms

• Prognosticated Resources

91.8 tcf

• Only 9.9 tcf inplace is

established

• Commercial production of

0.77 MMSCMD only is achieved till date

• Projected Production of 4.0

MMSCMD by End of 12th Plan

Established GIIP in CBM Blocks

1.92 Commercial production yet to start from Sohagpur Blocks

S No CBM Block Operator Established Gas in Place (TCF) Current Production per day Prodn: capacity When fully developed (MMSCMD) 1 Raniganj (S) GEECL 1.92 0.42MMm3/d 1.96 2 Raniganj(E) ESSAR 2.15 80,000M3/Day 3.0 3 Jharia ONGC 0.52 15000-20000M3/day 1.0 4 Sohagpur(w) RIL 1.96 0.25 (MMm3) (On Trial production Only) 2.5 5 Sohagpur (E) RIL 1.69 2.0 6 Raniganj(N) ONGC 0.26 Delayed Development 7 Bokaro ONGC 1.06 8 North Karanpura ONGC ONGC/IOC/Deep ? 0.34

TOTAL 9.90 0.77 MMm3/Day 10.46

Scope of Domestic CBM production improvisation

Potential Shale Gas Basins

• 1. Cambay Basin
• 2. Gondwana Basin
• 3. Assam-Arakan Basin
• 4. Krishna-Godavari Basin
• 5. Cauvery Basin
• 6. Vindhyan Basin
• 7. Bengal Basin
• 8. Rajasthan Basin
• 9. Ganga Basin

Gondwana Basins

• Lower Permian to Triassic age

Gondwana sediments consisting of fluviatile to Lacustrine deposits of sandstones, shales and coal measures

• Resource play is Barren

Measure shales TOC : 4-10% T max : 440-480 VRo : 1-1.2% Kerogen : Type III

ONGC Shale Gas Find in Gondwana Basin

• ONGC created an exploration

landmark when gas flowed out from the Barren Measure shale at a depth of around 1,700 meters, in its first R&D well RNSG-1 near Durgapur in Gondwana Basin

• The Barren Measure Shales are

858 m thick in the well drilled

• Based on testing results and

laboratory investigations, Schlumberger has estimated GIIP

• f 48 Tcf

Source: ONGC

GIP Estimated: 20 Tcf

Basin Cambay Krishna Godavari Cauvery Assam- Arakan Gondwana Vindhyan TOC (%) 1.5-4.0 1.4-5.3 0.31-4.76 0.64-1.00 4.0-10.0 0.40-6.04 VRo(%) 0.75- 1.20 0.9-1.3 0.65-1.20 0.57-1.94 0.40-1.20 No Data Thickness(M) 500- 1200 300-1500 300-750 400-1000 500-1000 >350 Kerogen Type II & III II & III II & III II & III III II&III Gas Concentartion Bcf/sq mile ** 231 143 143 120 123 No Data Depth (M) 1200- 2000 >2000 2000-3000 >2500 >2000 >1800 Prognosticated Resources(Tcf) 217 280 80 55 85 Not estimated

Parameters

Characteristics of Shale Units in potential Basins

** Source: EIA Report

MMSCMD

Projected Domestic Gas Supply

Likely accretions

Domestic suply has been constrained driven by low production from K G Basin Limited accretions are likely to occur . Most of additional supply is expected from

• Eastern Offshore Basins
• K-G Basin(ONGC, GSPC,D-6 satellite fields)
• Mahanadi Basin
• Western Offshore Fields
• C Series, PMT and newly discovered fields
• Assam-Arakan Basin,Rajasthan onland
• CBM & Shale Gas
• Development and Monetisation of Marginal fields

Source: Modified after IFCI

Challenges to improve Domestic Production

Technical

• Although initiated as Pilot

Project, Shale Gas Exploration may be accelerated to harness and produce shale gas

• Adoptation of innovative

technological advancements to increase Production (KG onland Frac job is a case in point)

• The prospectivity of CBM areas

requires a Re-Look in the context

• f anticipated CBM Gas

production

• The East coast Deep Water areas
• ffer future gas supply

Policy imperatives (Revised)

• Marketing & pricing freedom

for oil & gas produced by the developer will definitely add some adrenalin to the stagnating upstream business & production

• Replacement of PSC regime by

Revenue sharing model

• Under single licence-ALL types
• f hydrocarbons can be

explored and developed

• Open Acreage Licensing Policy

Acceleration of Exploratory Efforts

Comparison of Draft Revenue Sharing Model Licensing Policy vis-à-vis NELP Existing Policy

• Exploration & exploitation of

Conventional reservoirs only

• Controversy on Tax holiday for gas

blocks (Mineral oil)

• Royalty @ 10% for Gas and 12.5%

for oil

• Application of Gas utilisation

policy for Gas discoveries (pricing, allocation & prioritisation etc)

Revenue Sharing Model Licensing Policy

• Exploration & exploitation of ALL

types of reservoirs-both Conventional & Unconventional

• 7 year Tax holiday for onland,

shallow water blocks ?

• 10 year tax holiday for Deep water

blocks of >1500m water Depth.?

• No Royalty for offshore blocks
• Price of deep sea gas would be based
• n weighted average of imported

coal,LNG &naphtha

Comparison of Draft Revenue Sharing Model Licensing Policy vis-à-vis NELP Existing Policy (NELP)

• 100% Cost recovery admissable
• Production sharing Contract (PSC)
• Declaration of Commerciality

(DOC) to be approved

• FDP requires to be approved by

Govt.

• MC constituted DGH/MoPNG

and Consortium members Revenue Sharing Model Licensing Policy

• No cost recovery provision
• Production Linked payment regime

(PLP) for different tranches

• DOC not required However PLP to be

applicable from Day 1 of production

• Although no FDP to be approved, but

prod.profiles & Recoverable components to be defined.

• MC would consist of Officials from

MOEF, MOPNG, Defence, Finance, Law and Coal Ministry alongwith Consortium members

Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP)

• Companies may submit EOI for the areas of their

choice after study of G & G Data of the area

• It is understood that DGH has carved out about 9300

sectors in the sedimentary basinal areas on 10’ by 10’ grid pattern to put for OALP

• DGH will study and validate the EOI submitted by the

Company for the area and then carve out the Licensing Block.

• Subsequently ,interested Parties may submit Bids for

that area expressing their commitments and offer

• This OALP process would be made available round the

year

Concluding Remarks

 The resource potential of Natural gas in India is estimated to be 400TCf for conventional reservoirs and additional 692 Tcf for unconventional sources. This is besides the huge potential of Gas Hydrates in our east & west coast basins  Despite of having substantial potential,upgradations and discoveries have not paced up, which would have helped to improvise domestic production  Most likely areas to improve accretions are East Coast Deep Waters(KG D 6 satellites,UD-1 & Mahanadi ) Rajasthan Basin , Assam-Arakan Basin ,Shale Gas and CBM prospective locales  Policy and regulatory regimes to explore our own conventional & unconventional resources need to be re-looked and re-vitalised to reduce our dependence on imports .The upcoming Revenue Sharing Model policy with inherent incentives and OALP could be a right step in this direction.