Step 1: Define Aggregation Level Step 1: Define Aggregation Level - PDF document

Case Study for Replacement of Inefficient Boilers: Case Study for Replacement of Inefficient Boilers: HOB Standardized Baseline in Mongolia HOB Standardized Baseline in Mongolia 6 September 2011 Yuriko KOYANAGI Yuriko KOYANAGI Market Mechanism Group Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Step 1: Define Aggregation Level Step 1: Define Aggregation Level  cold winter Host country : Mongolia  coal is the most important energy source energy source Sector : Supply side energy efficiency improvement (district heating for larger sized building) (district heating for larger sized building)  Measure : Replace old inefficient polluting coal fire  Measure : Replace old inefficient polluting coal-fire and heat-only-boilers(HOBs) with environment friendly highly energy efficient boilers highly energy-efficient boilers Small scale Small scale Small scale projects  Defined output leve l: 0 3MW 5MW thermal  Defined output leve l: 0.3MW-5MW thermal 2

Step 2: Define Additionality Criteria Step 2: Define Additionality Criteria E Exemption from demonstrating additionality: ti f d t ti dditi lit  The remaining lifetime* of boilers is over 10 years 10 years Refer to “Tool to determine the remaining lifetime of equipment (ver 1)” [EB50 Anx15] Refer to Tool to determine the remaining lifetime of equipment (ver. 1) [EB50, Anx15]  The thermal efficiency of the boilers to be replaced is e t e a e c e cy o t e bo e s to be ep aced s lower than 55% lower than 55% 55% 70% 80% % % of boiler thermal f b il th l efficiency rate Baseline Baseline Additional Current efficiency of most boilers in National Standard Level Ulaanbaatar (UB) city is 50…60% (MNS 5043:2001) (according to the research under the World Bank projects in cooperation Benchmark with Ministry of Nature Environment and Tourism, Mongolia (MNET) Source: “Market Study of heat-only Boilers and Coal-fired Water Heaters” 2009, p.43 3 Step 2: Define Step 2: Define Additionality Additionality Criteria (cont.) Criteria (cont.) How to define the benchmark of additional level? • The average efficiency of boilers manufactured • The average efficiency of boilers manufactured and supplied in Mongolian market is 75% 75% . X ＜ 65% 75% ≦ Y Efficient rate Total # (2008) 28 boilers 81 boilers Estimation by IGES (raw data from “Market Study of heat-only Boilers and Coal-fired Water Heaters” 2009 p 35) Estimation by IGES (raw data from Market Study of heat-only Boilers and Coal-fired Water Heaters 2009, p. 35) • The current most efficient boiler supplied in Mongolia is 80% M li i 80% 80% efficiency. 80% ffi i Thus, 80% 80% efficiency seems to be the most possible project scenario. 4

Step 3: Identify Baseline Scenario Step 3: Identify Baseline Scenario Baseline scenario: Continuation of heat supply by the current HOBs Continuation of heat supply by the current HOBs  The energy baseline The energy baseline The monitored performance of the existing generating unit generating unit  Threshold Threshold Due to the highly share of coal as fuel (almost 100%), the threshold is defined as (almost 100%), the threshold is defined as energy efficient rate, not energy rate. 5 Step 3: Identify Baseline Scenario (cont.) Step 3: Identify Baseline Scenario (cont.) The types and share of HOBs in Issue to be developed UB city(2008 ‐ 2009) W ≦ 55% 55% ＜ X ＜ 70% How to calculate the 70% ≦ Y ≦ 75% 75% ＜ Z average efficiency? average efficiency? 23% 24% 16%  average or median?  average or median? 37%  Boiler efficiency test?  Boiler registration  Boiler registration 66 boilers might be the 66 boilers might be the system? target of CDM (PoA) Estimation by IGES (raw data from “Market Study of heat- only Boilers and Coal-fired Water Heaters” 2009, pp. 6-7) 6

Step 4: Baseline Emission Factor Step 4: Baseline Emission Factor BE = E BE = E BL. x x CO CO 2 -EF EF BL. Baseline Baseline Primary Energy Primary Energy Emission factor of the coal Emission factor of the coal emissions emissions consumed consumed in the in the = NCV = NCV coal (lignite) by the IPCC coal (lignite) by the IPCC baseline baseline baseline baseline default default value 0.101t default value 0.101t default value 0.101t-CO value 0.101t CO CO 2 /GJ CO 2 /GJ /GJ /GJ In case of 1MW boiler replacement E BL = E ou / □ BL = 14.40TJ / 0.55 =26.19TJ BL. ou BL th the reliable national li bl ti l ?  E ou : useful energy output in year data instead of IPCC = capacity x operation hours/year default values might be default values might be = 1MW x 4 000hours 1MW x 4,000hours = 4,000MWh examined… = 4,000MWh x 3.6 = 14.40TJ ∴ BE = 28.8TJ x 101t-CO 2 /TJ  □ BL : measured efficiency of the baseline □ ff f BE 28 8TJ 101 CO /TJ boilers 55% = 2,645t-CO 2 7 Summary Summary  Positive list for boiler replacement CDM:  Mongolia (and other regions characterized by cold winter and importance of coal as fuel)  the remaining lifetime of replaced boiler is over 10 yrs  the benchmark of additional level is 80% efficiency  the benchmark of additional level is 80% efficiency  More possibility as PoA than normal CDM  More possibility as PoA than normal CDM  Setting the baseline scenario how to define the  Setting the baseline scenario, how to define the average efficient rate? 55% efficiency or…?  As for baseline CO 2 -EF, IPCC default value 8