Spotlight on the Port Stephens Economy Tomaree Business Chamber, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tomaree Business Chamber, Business Breakfast DR ANTHEA BILL, Hunter Research Foundation Centre 5 April 2018

Spotlight on the Port Stephens Economy

• Hunter economy
• Growth drivers
• Housing and demographic trends
• Conclusion

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

HUNTER ECONOMY

LABOUR MARKET: CONTRACTION & RECOVERY

Recovery period

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: CONVERGENCE WITH NSW

AUSTRALIA: FULL-TIME JOBS GROWTH

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey. Annual Growth (%)

• 4.0
• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 DEC 03 DEC 04 DEC 05 DEC 06 DEC 07 DEC 08 DEC 09 DEC 10 DEC 11 DEC 12 DEC 13 DEC 14 DEC 15 DEC 16 DEC 17

Full-time employment Part-time employment

PULSE SURVEYS

Phone surveys 30 0 Households 30 0 Businesses

BUSINESS PERFORMANCE: NEW HIGHS SUSTAINED

* Figure has been interpolated for June 2015

CONSUMER SPENDING: IMPROVING

Source: Bishop and Cassidy, Reserve Bank Bulletin, March 2017.

WAGES: STILL SLUGGISH

Wage Price Index Forecasts

REGIONAL OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED

DRIVERS OF GROWTH 2016 CENSUS

CENSUS 2016: INDUSTRY PROFILE

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Health Care Retail Trade Construction Public Administration & Safety Accommodation & Food Manufacturing Education & Training Transport, Postal etc Professional Other Services Administrative & Support Financial and Insurance Mining Wholesale Trade Rental, Hiring etc Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Arts and Recreation Services Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Information Media & Telecommunications

Port Stephens LGA

Source: ABS, Census 2016

CENSUS 2016: METRO VS NON-METRO

Hunter excl. Newcastle Newcastle & Lake Macquarie Rest of NSW Greater Sydney Port Stephens

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2006-11 2011-16

Employment Growth

2 4 6 8 10 12

2006-11 2011-16

Population Growth

%

2 4 6 8 10 12

2006-11 2011-16

Working Population

% %

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing.

CENSUS 2011-16: HUNTER LABOUR MARKET TRANSITION

+21,900

• 13,472

• 1
• 0.8
• 0.6
• 0.4
• 0.2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Electricity Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Transport etc Info & Telecom Financial & Insurance Real Estate Services Professional Admin & Support Public Admin & Safety Education & Training Health Care & Social Arts & Recreation Other Services Thousands

Job Growth, 2011-16 Job Growth, 2006-11

Manufacturing

CHANGES IN INDUSTRY DRIVERS: PORT STEPHENS

Health Care & Social Assistance

• 1,362

+1,780

HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION

HOUSING: RENTS AND SALE PRICES

Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report

100 200 300 400 500

Median Weekly Rent ($)

Median Rent

3 bed median rent ($/week) LGA Port Stephens Benchmark 3 bed median rent ($/week) State NSW

NSW

Port Stephens

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Median House Sale Price ($ 000)

Median House Sale Price

House median sale price ($ 000) LGA Port Stephens Benchmark house median sale price ($ 000) State NSW

NSW

Port Stephens

HOUSING PRICES: LONG-TERM PRICE GROWTH

100 200 300 400 500 600 Cessnock Lake Macquarie Maitland Newcastle Port Stephens $

Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report

HOUSING PRICES: SLOWER GROWTH

PORT STEPHENS: RESIDENTIAL APPROVALS

Source: ABS, Building Approvals.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

Residential Building Approvals (no.)

New House (no.) LGA Port Stephens New other residential (no.) LGA Port Stephens

50 100 150 200 250 300 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17

Millions

Total Residential Total Non-residential

CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE: VALUE

$

Source: ABS Building Approvals

VALUE BUILDING APPROVALS

Public expenditure Williamtown, defence upgrades

PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: FIRST HOME BUYERS

HOUSING STRESS: WHAT DOES THE CENSUS TELL US?

6.4

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2011 2016

% Households 10.8

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2011 2016

% Households

RENTAL STRESS

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing

MORTGAGE STRESS

DEMOGRAPHIC & OTHER DRIVERS

POPULATION GROWTH: PORT STEPHENS

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Singleton Muswellbrook Upper Hunter Shire Lake Macquarie Newcastle Port Stephens Dungog Cessnock Maitland

% Population Change 2011- 2016 Persons Females Males

AGEING POPULATION: PORT STEPHENS

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

Age Dependency Ratio

POST SCHOOL QUALS: PORT STEPHENS

1.1% 0.7% 5.8% 6.2% 20.1% 1.2% 8.3% 56.5% 1.5% 0.9% 6.7% 7.3% 22.1% 0.7% 9.2% 51.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Postgraduate Degree Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate Bachelor Degree Advanced Diploma and Diploma Certificate Inadequately Described Not stated No Qualifications

2011 2016

Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES: PORT STEPHENS

• Williamtown RAAF Base - defence & innovation
• pportunities
• Newcastle Airport
• Health and aged care – aging population and

retirees

• Tourism

TOURISM: HUNTER

Source: Destination NSW.

$ million 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total visitors (RHS) Total expenditure (LHS) ‘000s

HUNTER BUSINESSES & DIGITAL ECONOMY

Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys * Data not collected 2014.

HUNTER BUSINESSES: USE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY

DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY: KNOWLEDGE SEEKERS?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Developing a web presence Utilising cloud-based solutions Accepting payments through websites Marketing via social networks Other area not already mentioned Do not need to improve knowledge of ICT

How would you like to improve your knowledge of ICT?

2015 2016 2017

Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys

Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Household Survey

HUNTER HOUSEHOLDS: AGE BARRIERS PERSIST

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Home has internet access Have accessed the internet Purchased goods and services via internet Social networking facebook/twitter Acccess the internet from mobile phone

<65 65+

SUMMARY

• Business confidence and performance
• Consumer spending improved
• Opportunities provided by ageing population,

defence and tourism

• Consumer spending LT subdued
• Ageing population poses some risks to working

profile, need to better engage technology

• Human capital development a priority

THANK YOU

THIS PRESENTATION will be available on

• ur website later today

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