Spotlight on the Port Stephens Economy Tomaree Business Chamber, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Spotlight on the Port Stephens Economy Tomaree Business Chamber, Business Breakfast DR ANTHEA BILL, Hunter Research Foundation Centre 5 April 2018

PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Hunter economy • Growth drivers • Housing and demographic trends • Conclusion

HUNTER ECONOMY

LABOUR MARKET: CONTRACTION & RECOVERY Recovery period

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: CONVERGENCE WITH NSW

AUSTRALIA: FULL-TIME JOBS GROWTH 8.0 Full-time employment Annual Growth (%) Part-time employment 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -2.0 -4.0 Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey.

PULSE SURVEYS 30 0 30 0 Phone Households Businesses surveys

BUSINESS PERFORMANCE: NEW HIGHS SUSTAINED * Figure has been interpolated for June 2015

CONSUMER SPENDING: IMPROVING

WAGES: STILL SLUGGISH Wage Price Index Forecasts Source: Bishop and Cassidy, Reserve Bank Bulletin, March 2017.

REGIONAL OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED

DRIVERS OF GROWTH 2016 CENSUS

CENSUS 2016: INDUSTRY PROFILE Information Media & Telecommunications Port Stephens LGA Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Arts and Recreation Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Rental, Hiring etc Wholesale Trade Mining Financial and Insurance Administrative & Support Other Services Professional Transport, Postal etc Education & Training Manufacturing Accommodation & Food Public Administration & Safety Construction Retail Trade Health Care 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: ABS, Census 2016

CENSUS 2016: METRO VS NON-METRO % % Working Population % Employment Growth Population Growth 12 14 12 12 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2006-11 2011-16 2006-11 2011-16 2006-11 2011-16 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing. Hunter excl. Rest of Greater Sydney Newcastle & Lake Port Stephens Newcastle NSW Macquarie

CENSUS 2011-16: HUNTER LABOUR MARKET TRANSITION -13,472 +21,900

CHANGES IN INDUSTRY DRIVERS: PORT STEPHENS Other Services Job Growth, 2011-16 Arts & Recreation Health Care & Job Growth, 2006-11 Health Care & Social Social Assistance Education & Training Public Admin & Safety Admin & Support Professional -1,362 +1,780 Real Estate Services Financial & Insurance Info & Telecom Transport etc Accommodation & Food Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Construction Manufacturing Electricity Manufacturing Mining Agriculture -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Thousands

HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION

HOUSING: RENTS AND SALE PRICES Median House Sale Price Median Rent 500 Median House Sale Price ($ 000) NSW NSW 700 Median Weekly Rent ($) 400 600 500 300 Port 400 300 Stephens 200 Port Stephens 200 100 100 0 0 House median sale price ($ 000) LGA Port Stephens 3 bed median rent ($/week) LGA Port Stephens Benchmark house median sale price ($ 000) State NSW Benchmark 3 bed median rent ($/week) State NSW Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report

HOUSING PRICES: LONG-TERM PRICE GROWTH $ Cessnock Lake Macquarie 600 Maitland Newcastle 500 Port Stephens 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report

HOUSING PRICES: SLOWER GROWTH

PORT STEPHENS: RESIDENTIAL APPROVALS 1,000 Residential Building Approvals (no.) 900 New House (no.) LGA Port Stephens 800 New other residential (no.) LGA Port Stephens 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: ABS, Building Approvals.

CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE: VALUE VALUE BUILDING APPROVALS $ 300 Millions Total Residential Total Non-residential 250 200 Public expenditure Williamtown, defence upgrades 150 100 50 0 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Source: ABS Building Approvals

PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: FIRST HOME BUYERS

HOUSING STRESS: WHAT DOES THE CENSUS TELL US? RENTAL STRESS MORTGAGE STRESS % Households % Households 2011 2016 2011 2016 16 16 14 14 12 12 10.8 10 10 6.4 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing

DEMOGRAPHIC & OTHER DRIVERS

POPULATION GROWTH: PORT STEPHENS % Population Change 2011- 2016 Maitland Cessnock Dungog Port Stephens Newcastle Persons Lake Macquarie Females Upper Hunter Shire Muswellbrook Males Singleton 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

AGEING POPULATION: PORT STEPHENS Age Dependency Ratio 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

POST SCHOOL QUALS: PORT STEPHENS 1.1% Postgraduate Degree 2011 2016 1.5% 0.7% Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate 0.9% 5.8% Bachelor Degree 6.7% 6.2% Advanced Diploma and Diploma 7.3% 20.1% Certificate 22.1% 1.2% Inadequately Described 0.7% 8.3% Not stated 9.2% 56.5% No Qualifications 51.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES: PORT STEPHENS • Williamtown RAAF Base - defence & innovation opportunities • Newcastle Airport • Health and aged care – aging population and retirees • Tourism

TOURISM: HUNTER ‘000s $ million 3,000 12,000 Total visitors Total (RHS) expenditure 2,500 10,000 (LHS) 2,000 8,000 1,500 6,000 1,000 4,000 500 2,000 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Destination NSW.

HUNTER BUSINESSES & DIGITAL ECONOMY

HUNTER BUSINESSES: USE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys * Data not collected 2014.

DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY: KNOWLEDGE SEEKERS? How would you like to improve your knowledge of ICT ? 2015 2016 2017 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Developing a Utilising Accepting Marketing via Other area not Do not need web presence cloud-based payments social already to improve solutions through networks mentioned knowledge of websites ICT Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys

HUNTER HOUSEHOLDS: AGE BARRIERS PERSIST 100% <65 65+ 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Home has internet Have accessed the Purchased goods Social networking Acccess the access internet and services via facebook/twitter internet from internet mobile phone Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Household Survey

SUMMARY • Business confidence and performance • Consumer spending improved • Opportunities provided by ageing population, defence and tourism • Consumer spending LT subdued • Ageing population poses some risks to working profile, need to better engage technology • Human capital development a priority

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