Space Debris: From the Ivory Tower to Creating Public Awareness - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Space Debris: From the Ivory Tower to Creating Public Awareness Ward Munters Institute for International Law & Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, KU Leuven

Space Debris: The Problem Hypervelocity impacts (> 6km/s ) Median speed between two space objects colliding = 12 km/s = +‐ 40,000 km/h

Space Debris: The Problem ~ # Debris • • >10cm: ~ 30.000 >1cm: ~ 700.000 • >1mm ~ 170.000.000 • Source: ESA LEO C975 : 11% GEO ‐ 4000 catalogued ‐ 40000 LNTs C850 : 1% KESSLER SYNDROME? ‐ 16000 catalogued ‐ 160,000 LNTs Source: NASA

Modeled time evolution of a fragmentation cloud generated by the explosion of an Ariane‐1 H‐10 upper stage on Nov. 13, 1986

FACTORS IMPACTING SUBSTANTIVE INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS? 4D‐Arrayed Orbital Space Collision Risk: P x C: Spatiotemporal [T]ime + [L]ocation + [S]tate T 1 L 2 S 1 TIME LOCATION STATE Object Population Flux Object Population Flux Signatory Status? ‐Debris population (LNTs) ‐Debris population (LNTs) ‐Object population ‐Object population Practice ‐MicroMeteoroids ‐MicroMeteoroids ‐ Persistent Objector? ‐Collisional Reservoirs ‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard) (Graveyard) Standard of Development T 1 L 3 S 1 PMD Cycles PMD Cycles ‐25 years ‐25 years Historical Contributions ‐5 years ‐5 years Current Capabilities ‐… ‐… Civilian/Military? Variable Decay Rates Variable Decay Rates ‐ Atmospheric variability ‐ Atmospheric variability National Legislation? T 1 L 1 S 2  ‘Complex Geometry’ Tech Development Tech Development ‐Varying capability levels ‐Varying capability levels … Air and Suborbital Traffic Air and Suborbital Traffic Launch Traffic Launch Traffic Human Presence Human Presence 4D‐Array of continuously variable risk Regime Change Regime Change Space Weather Space Weather  Variable obligations? … …

The Ivory Tower

Create Public Awareness! Create Political Awareness! Prevention of Space Debris? Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space?