Space Debris: From the Ivory Tower to Creating Public Awareness - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Space Debris: From the Ivory Tower to Creating Public Awareness Ward Munters Institute for International Law & Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, KU Leuven Space Debris: The Problem Hypervelocity impacts (> 6km/s ) Median speed
Ward Munters
Institute for International Law & Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, KU Leuven
Median speed between two space objects colliding = 12 km/s = +‐ 40,000 km/h Hypervelocity impacts (> 6km/s)
GEO LEO
Source: ESA
KESSLER SYNDROME?
Source: NASA
C975: 11%
‐ 4000 catalogued ‐ 40000 LNTs
C850: 1%
‐ 16000 catalogued ‐ 160,000 LNTs
Modeled time evolution of a fragmentation cloud generated by the explosion of an Ariane‐1 H‐10 upper stage
FACTORS IMPACTING SUBSTANTIVE INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS? [T]ime + [L]ocation + [S]tate
T1L2S1 T1L1S2 T1L3S1 TIME
Object Population Flux ‐Debris population (LNTs) ‐Object population ‐MicroMeteoroids ‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard) PMD Cycles ‐25 years ‐5 years ‐… Variable Decay Rates ‐Atmospheric variability Tech Development ‐Varying capability levels Air and Suborbital Traffic Launch Traffic Human Presence Regime Change Space Weather …
LOCATION
Object Population Flux ‐Debris population (LNTs) ‐Object population ‐MicroMeteoroids ‐Collisional Reservoirs (Graveyard) PMD Cycles ‐25 years ‐5 years ‐… Variable Decay Rates ‐Atmospheric variability Tech Development ‐Varying capability levels Air and Suborbital Traffic Launch Traffic Human Presence Regime Change Space Weather …
STATE
Signatory Status? Practice ‐Persistent Objector? Standard of Development Historical Contributions Current Capabilities Civilian/Military? National Legislation? ‘Complex Geometry’ …
P x C: Spatiotemporal
4D‐Array of continuously variable risk
Variable obligations?
4D‐Arrayed Orbital Space
Collision Risk: