SLCP emission from Residential sector and its impact in Asia Gakuji - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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SLCP emission from Residential sector and its impact in Asia

Gakuji KURATA Kyoto University

22nd AIM International Workshop 9 – 11 December, 2016 NIES, Tsukuba, JAPAN

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Target

• f

Residential Sector Model

Developed Country & A part of Urban Area of Developing Country. Developing Country and Rural Area How to minimize the energy consumption. (Mainly electricity) How to reduce the environmental loading. (Municipal waste and wastewater) How to introduce the low carbon lifestyle.

• Energy Poverty
• Indoor Air Pollution  largest health Risk
• Direct emission of GHG and SLCP

How to reduce the Solid fuel use. (Biomass, Coal ) How to introduce the high efficiency equipment How to accelerate the electrification. Wood Fireplace BC, OC, PM2.5, NMVOC

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Direct emission of SLCP from Residential sector

Combustion of Solid Fuel (Coal, Biomass) in Residential sector causes Indoor Air Pollution Climate Impact as SLCP Local and Regional Air Pollution

0.5℃ BC + CH4

UNEP/WMO (2011) Liu et. al., (2016)

In Jan, Feb 50% of PM2.5, 60-80% of BC 90% of OC are come from Residential sector

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4 Premature death due to indoor air pollution in the World is 4.3 million people

(WHO ,2012)

China: 1.46 million India: 1.25 million

Indoor air pollution is the largest factor in the environmental risk.

Death Attributable to Household air pollution (per 100 000 capita) [WHO 2012] (WHO, 2004)

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5 In rural of China and India, more than 50% of energy sources used in the household is solid fuels such as coal and biomass (firewood, crop residue and animal dung).

(WHO, 2013) Rural Area

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India, CO2 emission SSP2 Ref + High electrification China, CO2 emission SSP2 Ref + High electrification China, BC emission SSP2 Ref + High electrification India, BC emission SSP2 Ref + High electrification

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10000000 20000000 30000000 40000000 50000000 60000000 70000000 80000000 90000000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Emisison/toe year

IND

There are no difference between Countermeasure cases for Climate Change Because, the Climate Policy mainly focus

• n the Power generation, industrial sector

and Transportation sector. SSP2 Reference CO2 emission by Technology for Residential sector 2010-2050 China

Heating Cooking Lighting (Oil) Hot water

CO2, Residential sector, China BC, Residential , China Cooking, Biomass Heating, Biomass CO2 emission, India Residential Sector

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 Lack of Future Service demand estimation

 Because there are large differences in lifestyle between regions, it is

difficult to estimate the service demand in the future residential sector.

 Lack of Technology Information

 Bottom-up model carries out technology selection according to economic

• rationality. However, in addition to the lack of information on the initial

cost and running cost of the household equipment, it differs greatly from country by country.

 Lack of Emission Factor for air pollutants.

 The emission factors of air pollutants from household equipment are

extremely limited.

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Future Emission Estimate from Residential Sector

AIM/Enduse Model Energy consumption / Fuel type / Purpose

Estimation of Energy service demand for Urban/Rural Cooking

Hot water Supply

Heating Cooling Lighting Other Home Appliance SSP Scenario Population

Heating / Cooling Degree day

Floor area

Ownership of Electric Appliance

Emission of Air Pollutant

Emission Factor 2010 ～ 2030 Enduse Technology Selection Model

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Future estimation of Energy Consumption of Residential Sector (case study for China)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Urban GJ/cap

冷房 電化製品 給湯 照明 調理 暖房

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

冷房 電化製品 給湯 照明 調理 暖房

Urban Rural

7.74 7.36 7.70 8.53 Per Capita Energy Consumption (GJ/cap/year) Per Capita Energy Consumption (GJ/cap/year)

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Estimated Trend of Share of technology

Per Household Energy Consumption for Heating (toe) Per Household Energy Consumption for Cooking (toe)

Heating/Rural Cooking/Rural

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 Target Pollutants

SLCP (and Air Pollutants) emission from Residential Sector in Rural and Urban area China. 𝑁𝑣𝑠,𝑔,𝑂 = 𝐹𝑣𝑠,𝑔,𝑂 × 𝐹𝐺

𝑔,𝑂

 Estimation of Emission from Urban and Rural area：

BC , CO, NOX, OC, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, VOC

𝑁: Emission of SLCP 𝑣𝑠: Urban / Rural 𝑔: type of Fuel 𝑂: type of SLCP 𝐹𝐺: Emission Factor 𝐹: Household energy consumption

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Future Emission of Air Pollutant from Residential Sector Urban Rural

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2 4 6 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

LPG

1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

天然ガス

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

石炭

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

バイオマス

0.5 1 1.5 2 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

灯油

Coal LPG

Natural Gas

Biomass

Kerosene

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Future Emission Scenarios of Residential Sector Regional Air Pollution Indoor Air Pollution Average Indoor exposure of PM2.5 multiplied by population.

Contribution of Residential Sector

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• 1. It is extremely important to improve the accuracy of

future estimates of the emissions from the residential sector, as SLCP emissions are large and the impact of indoor air pollution is serious.

• 2. In this year, we are conducting research focusing on the

estimation of the service demand of the residential sector and the estimation of the reduction potential by AIM/Enduse model.

• 3. After that, we will estimate the contribution of

pollutants from the residential sector to local and regional air pollution and estimate the impact to the indoor air pollution.

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Thank you for your attention