Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel Report to the 56 th Meeting of the GEF Council “Shaun the Sheep” aired 2006 -2016, and was broadcast in over 180 countries.
STAP AP Pane anel l Me Membe mbers s an and Advi viser sers Mark Stafford Smith Thomas Lovejoy Rosina Bierbaum Adviser to Chair Adviser to Chair Chair Ferenc Toth Graciela Blake Ratner Saleem Ali Rosie Cooney Jamidu Katima Climate Change Metternicht Climate Change Biodiversity Chemicals & Waste International Waters Adaptation Land Degradation Mitigation
New w sc scien ience ce Im Impact act Programs rograms Four our paper apers STAP P wor ork k progr rogram am Obser servation ations s on on GE GEF work ork program rogram
NEW NEW SCIENCE IENCE
Th The e Global lobal Ri Risks sks La Land ndscape scape 20 2019 19 Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2018-2019
IP IPBES: BES: Key f y findings indings • 1 million species at risk of extinction • Key drivers : land/sea use change; exploitation; climate change; pollution, and invasive species • As production of food, fiber, and energy increase, other services of nature (such as regulating climate) are decreasing Photo: Mossy frog (Theloderma corticale) by mgkuijpers • 75% of land area and 66% of oceans significantly altered • Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities important in the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity Photo: Blue Seastar on Seagrass" by ead72
IP IPBES: BES: Key findings y findings • Most of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets likely to be missed • Continuing loss of biodiversity, coupled with climate change, threaten achieving most of the UN SDGs • Business-as-usual scenarios show worsening loss of biodiversity • Nature-based solutions for climate change can be beneficial for biodiversity (e.g., restoration with native species), but can be detrimental (large scale bioenergy replacing native vegetation) • Transformative changes need inclusive governance systems, evolution of economic systems, multi-sectoral planning, incentives for sustainable production and consumption, etc. Photo: Sloth by janossygergely
IP IPCC CC: : May 2019: 19: Refinemen inement to t o the 200 006 6 Gu Guidel idelines ines for or Nat atio ional nal Gr Green enho hous use e Ga Gas s In Invent ntories ories Mainly an update of the 2006 guidelines. Examples relevant to the GEF: • calculation of soil carbon stock and storage under different management regimes, emission factors for rice cultivation • methane emissions estimation from landfills at solid waste disposal sites • methane, nitrous oxide and CO 2 from incineration and open burning of waste The IPCC agreed to develop methodologies for short-lived climate forcers like black carbon and other air pollutants
IP IPCC CC: : Cli limat ate e Chan ange ge an and La Land; d; Ocea cean n an and Cryosphere osphere in in a a Changing anging Cli limat mate • August 2019: Climate Change and Land • September 2019: Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
GCA Com GC ommissioner missioners s met met May 21; ; Next xt me meetin ting g Ju July ly 9-10 10 GCA CA MESSAGE: GE: Adaptation is about integrating climate risk into growth and development It is about pursuing growth and development differently and better
GCA CA MESSAGE: GE: The he econ onom omic ic case for for ada dapt ptation tion is clear r and nd com ompe pelling lling • DISASTER RISK REDUCTION: $1 in investment saves $6 in avoided loss (U.S. study) • NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS: Mangroves 2-5x more cost-effective than engineered solutions • INFRASTRUCTURE: Upgrading infrastructure has a benefit cost ratio > 4 (developing countries)
GCA CA Products Products • 50 p. Synthesis (high-level document for policymakers) ; UNGA September 2019 • 150 p. Technical document, delivered at the UNFCCC COP, November 2019 Synergy rgy with GEF di dire rectio tions: ns: - nature ure-base based d solutions, ions, citie ies, s, water er, , foo food, d, and d an incre creas ased ed foc focus us on kno nowle wledge dge, , Inn nnovatio ation, n, gover vernan nance ce, , and nd fi finance nance KNOWLEDGE INNOVATION GOVERNANCE FINANCE
Global Chemicals Outlook II (GCO-II) Suggest gested ed GEF Actio ions ns Support projects that address regulatory and institutional gaps Promote the integrated approach in GEF investments Increase engagement with the private sector Invest in projects focused on the life cycle and circular economy
Photo: Thomas Mangelsen Photo: Pascal Maitre Im Impact pact Progra rograms ms Photo: Camilo Bruno
6 STAP AP Cri riteria eria to p o promo romote e in innovati ation, on, in integrati gration on, , an and tran ansf sform ormati ation on in in the IP IPs • Innovation • Barriers to transformation • Maximize GEBs, manage trade-offs, including climate risk • Multi-stakeholder processes • Theory of change • Monitoring, evaluation, learning, and knowledge management
6 I 6 IP Crit iteria: eria: in inno novation; ation; an and d bar arrier riers • Inno novation ation + All IPs identified innovations - More types of innovation? How to scale? All scalable? • Ba Barrier ers s to tr tran ansformat mation ion + Barriers usually described - Implications for program design? Vested interest barriers?
6 IP Cri riter eria ia: : ri risk sks; s; an and st stak akeholder eholder en enga gagem gement ent • Ma Maxi ximi mize e GEB EBs, s, ma manage age tr trad ade-offs, fs, including cluding cl clima mate e risk + Risks usually well-described - Explicitly addressed? How to manage trade-offs? Implications for design? • Mu Mult lti-st stak akeholde holder processe ocesses + All had a strong emphasis on multi-stakeholder processes - Child projects engaged? Barriers to engagement?
6 I 6 IP Crit iteria: eria: th theo eory y of of chang hange; e; an and d ME MEL/KM L/KM • Theor heory y of Change ange + TOCs generally strong on goals - Causal links clear? TOCs for value chains, child projects? Pathways identified? Assumptions spelt out? • Monit itor oring, ing, evalua aluation, tion, le lear arning, ning, knowle wledge ge man anagem agemen ent + Central element of all IPs - Metrics and indicators? How will learning support adaptive management? How to track M&E outcomes to KM?
Durability ility FOU OUR P R PAPERS ERS Clima imate e risk k screenin ning Local l commons ons Land nd degra radation dation ne neutr tralit ality
Achie ieving ving Mor ore e En Enduring uring Outcomes comes From rom GE GEF In Investments estments • A request from the GEF secretariat • Build on STAP’s findings on ‘integration’ and climate risk screening. • A comprehensive analysis of the literature is on the STAP website. Photo: Shawn W. http://www.stapgef.org/achieving-more-enduring-outcomes-gef-investment
Wh Why y a a foc ocus us on on Du Durability rability is is warrant arranted ed • Enduring impacts need to persist in the face of long-term external changes, e.g. climate • Transformational change does not necessary imply greater durability • Larger investments do not necessarily guarantee transformational success • Transformation needs to be embedded in planning from the outset • Systems change for transformation requires innovation • Greater innovation brings the likelihood of higher failure rates
Relationshi elationship p betw betwee een n some ome ter erms ms GEF investment phase Decreasing influence of GEF (period for ensuring a good ToC) (period for judging durability) Outcomes comes Program Output puts Impa mpacts cts GEBs (wider scope) (multiple projects) (program scope) (wider scope) Other Program lifetime long-term benefits Project Outcome comes Imp mpacts cts Un Unscale led Project ct output puts (project scope) pro roje ject (project scope) Project lifetime
Period of GEF-dominated funding Impact Subsequent scaling path as set up by initial funding scaled (a) Project achieves local impacts but fails to endure ‘local’ (b) Project achieves enduring local impact only From outputs to enduring impacts (c) Project scales, but scaling and delivery of GEBs does not endure (due to poor design or unforeseen changes) (d) Project scales durably (e.g. success demonstrated and private sector or policy self-interest takes over) (e) Multiple projects integrated in a program to wide impact durably (e.g. major part of value chain affected or multi- country policy change achieved) Time
Council ouncil nee eeds s to d o dec ecide ide on on it its ap appetit tite e for or ri risk sk Impa mpact ct Hig igh Acc cceptabl ptable Preferre rred Avoid oid Minimi nimise se Low Innovati tion on Low Hig igh
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