Climate Change and Rice Production Tran Dang Hoa Faculty of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change and Rice Production

Tran Dang Hoa Faculty of Agronomy Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry Vietnam

• 4 millions ha
• Main regions:
• Red river delta
• Central
• Mekong delta

Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production

Climate change in Vietnam Sea level rises 2.5-3 cm/ 10 years in the last century

Vietnam sea level rise (SLR, cm) as compared with 1980-1999 Scenarios Emission 2020 2050 2100 B1 Low 11 28 65 B2 Medium 12 30 75 A2 High 12 33 100

Red river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise

• f 1m

Mekong river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m

21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2 1 3 4

OC

Year

Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi station.

Annual temperature

Average temperature increase 0.10C/10 years. Average temperature

• f some months in

summer is increase 0.1- 0.30C/ 10 years.

Temperature increase

Vietnam Temperature increased as compared with 1980-1999 Scenarios T(0C) 2020 2050 2100 A2 High Increase 0.5 1.5 2.8 B1 Low Increase 0.3 0.8 1.6

• Rainfall is decrease

in dry season, but increase in raining season.

• Heavy raining

causes strong flood frequently

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2 1 3

4

mm

Year

Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-December rainfall at A Luoi station.

Rainfall of Aug.-Dec.

• Typhoon
• Non rule
• moves to the south.

• Climate change mitigation is any action taken to

permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life or property

• Climate change adaptation refers to the ability of a

system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

Action plan on rice production

Mitigation/Adaptation

GHG from Agriculture

2050 , GHG from agriculture will be increased 30% FAO, April 11, 2014

Mitigation

• Agriculture causes about 25 % global anthropogenic CO2

emissions, 65-70 % of CH4, and 90 % of N2O emissions

• Rice paddies contributing about 12% to global CH4

emissions (second largest after cattle livestock)

• Global Warming Potential (GWP):

CH4 – 25 times higher than CO2 N2O – 298 times higher than CO2

Climate Change Mitigation within the rice agricultural sector

http://www.ibp.ethz.ch (modified)

• Rice varieties
• Fertilizer
• Water

management

GHG from Agriculture sectors in Vietnam (MONRE, 2000)

CO2 Equ (MT) % Rice Field 37.4 57.5 Live stock ( Fermentation &Manure) 11.1 17.2 Soils 14.2 21.8 Burning field 0.59 0.9 Crops Residues Burning 1.70 2.6 Total 100

Quang Nam province LUCCi project 6 seasons 2010 - 2013 Hue province MIRSA project 2014

GHG experiments on paddy fields

PI to complete flowering grain filling Maturity Late tillering Early tillering transp recovery

Field water depth (Cm)

• 10
• 5

2.5

5

10

• 20
• 15

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

CF AWD

soil surface

DAT flowering

Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD)

Safe AWD: - 15 cm

Site-specific nutrient management

A standardized leaf color chart (LCC)

• Applying nutrients as

and when needed

• Adjusting nutrient

application to crop needs in given location and season

GC: SRI 8610C Gas analysis GC setting, 2011

a a a a 2 4 6 Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Yield ton ha-1 Summer – Autumn 2011 CF AWD a a a a 2 4 6 Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Yield ton ha -1 Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012 CF AWD

No difference in yield of different water management practices

LUCCi project

41.9% reduction 44.3% reduction

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Summer - Autumn 2011 Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012 GMP ton ha-1 CF AWD 33.6 % reduction 31 % reduction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Summer - Autumn 2011 Winter - Spring 2011 - 2012

GWP ton ha -1 CF AWD

Dai Loc Nam Phuoc

Global Warm Potential

Yield (ton/ha)

b b a A A A 2 4 6 8 10 CF ADW AWDS Treatment

ton ha-1

Potential yield Grain yield

MIRSA project

Methane fluxes

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 CF AWD AWDS

CH4 mg m-2 d-1

• 250
• 200
• 150
• 100
• 50

50 100 150 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Daily average water level (mm)

DAS

Nitrous oxide fluxes

2.40 3.40 4.40 5.40 6.40 7.40 8.40 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 CF AWD AWDS MDL

N2O mg m-2 d-1

N applied N applied

• 250
• 200
• 150
• 100
• 50

50 100 150 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Daily average water level (mm) DAS

CH4

5 105 205 305 405 505 605 CF AWD AWDS CH4 kg ha-1 22% reduction 15% reduction 104 days 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 CF AWD AWDS

N2O kg ha-1 MDL

104 days

N2O

Seasonal cumulative gas emission

Aerobic rice system Treat rice like any other (irrigated) crop: No puddling, no standing water, aerobic soil

Adaptation: IRRI projects

Salinity tolerance variety

Cropping ¡System ¡& ¡Management ¡ in ¡coastal ¡zones ¡

Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source Calendar 1 Calendar 2 = Land preparation Grav Irrig = gravity irrigation P Irrig = Pump irrigation St Wa = Stored Water No salinity control Main season rainfed rice Brackish water Shrimp Main season rainfed rice Salinity control + irrigation water Salinity control; no irrigation water Summer Autumn Autumn Winter Salinity Salinity Winter Spring Summer Autumn Autumn Winter P irri River Wat St W St W Grav IrriPump Irrigation River water Rver+St Wat River W Rainfed Grav Irrig Leaching Rainfed Grav Irrig P Irr Salinity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Saline period Low/non-saline

Prepar ation

Shrimp

Leaching

Rice

Wat Stor

Leaf, tiller and root development Panicle development Grain filling Pollination

LOW HIGH MEDIUM

Sensitivity to Heat Stress

MINIMUM MAXIMUM

10 20 30 40 50

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Vegetative Flowering Grain Filling

Temperature(oC) Rice Crop

Seasonal calendar

Conclusion

Climate Change Mitigation:

Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms

• f…
• Water use
• Fertilizer uptake
• Harvest index

Adaptation:

Rice systems have to become more resilient to…

• Drought
• Submergence
• Salinity
• Heat waves

By

• Germplasm development
• Crop management
• Cropping system
• Resource management and Structures

QUESTION to Restructure Program

Sources Measures Need

• Too much water

used for rice

• Too low

efficiency of inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, waters)

• Soil degradation
• Low C-soil sink
• Increase GHG
• Saving water=> precision

irrigation system

• Changes the way of rice

cultivation (less input. less w a t e r u s e s . = > h i g h efficiency.)

• Re-use rice/ crop residues;

mulching/ Bio-char/ Min tillage

• Added values for all

agriculture products & by products

• N

e w Technology

• New behaviors
• P r e c i s i o n

agriculture

• C-sequence

• Low

comparative productivity

• Uncertainly

income

• Replace Rice by other

crops with reversible ways

• Added values for all

Rice products & by products

• New

techniques?

• Multiple

cropping

• Investment
• New

Marketing Approach

• Sea level

rise

• Weather

uncertainty

• Salinity
• Drought/
• Flooding
• Heat/cool
• Physical and biological

ways

• Inter-field damps
• Multiple cropping
• Mixed cropping
• Modelling
• New behaviors
• Good

prediction

• Good

investment design

• Useful

Information/data

Thanks for your attention