A decade of progress and perseverance in the Marcellus Shale.
July 2017 Investor Presentation
July 28, 2017
July 2017 Investor Presentation July 28, 2017 A decade of progress - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
July 2017 Investor Presentation July 28, 2017 A decade of progress and perseverance in the Marcellus Shale. Forward-Looking Statements and Other Disclaimers This presentation includes forward looking statements within the meaning of Section
A decade of progress and perseverance in the Marcellus Shale.
July 2017 Investor Presentation
July 28, 2017
Forward-Looking Statements and Other Disclaimers
2
This presentation includes forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The statements regarding future financial and operating performance and results, strategic pursuits and goals, market prices, future hedging and risk management activities, and other statements that are not historical facts contained in this report are forward-looking statements. The words “expect”, “project”, “estimate”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “budget”, “plan”, “forecast”, “target”, “predict”, “may”, “should”, “could”, “will” and similar expressions are also intended to identify forward-looking
basis differentials) of natural gas and crude oil, results of future drilling and marketing activity, future production and costs, legislative and regulatory initiatives, electronic, cyber or physical security breaches and other factors detailed herein and in our other Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings. See “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of the Form 10-K and subsequent public filings for additional information about these risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual
made, and Cabot Oil & Gas (the “Company” or “Cabot”) does not undertake any obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as the result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation may contain certain terms, such as resource potential, risked or unrisked resources, potential locations, risked or unrisked locations, EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) and other similar terms that describe estimates of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons that the SEC rules prohibit from being included in filings with the SEC. These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and may not constitute “reserves” within the meaning of SEC rules and accordingly, are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. These estimates are based on the Company’s existing models and internal estimates. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company’s interests could differ substantially. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availably of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals, actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates, and other factors. These estimates may change significantly as development of the Company’s assets provide additional data. Investors are urged to consider carefully the disclosures and risk factors about Cabot’s reserves in the Form 10‐K and other reports on file with the SEC. This presentation also refers to Discretionary Cash Flow, EBITDAX, Net Income (Loss) Excluding Selected Items and Net Debt calculations and
alternative for analysis of the Company’s results as reported under GAAP. For additional disclosure regarding such non-GAAP measures, including definitions of these terms and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to Cabot’s most recent earnings release at www.cabotog.com and the Company’s related 8-K on file with the SEC.
>3,000 Remaining Undrilled Locations Year-End 2016 Net Producing Horizontal Wells: 517 2017E Net D&C activity: 60 wells drilled / 51 wells completed Inventory Life Based on 2017E Activity: ~50 years
Cabot Oil & Gas Overview
2016 Production: 627 Bcfe (4% growth) 2016 Year-End Proved Reserves: 8.6 Tcfe (5% growth) 2017E Net D&C Activity: 95 wells drilled / 90 wells completed 2017E Production Growth: 8% - 12% 2017E Total Program Spending: $845 mm (includes $70 mm of pipeline investments and up to $125 mm of exploratory leasing / testing capital) 3
>1,100 Remaining Undrilled Locations Year-End 2016 Net Producing Horizontal Wells: 207 2017E Net D&C activity: 30 wells drilled / 39 wells completed Inventory Life Based on 2017E Activity: ~36 years
MARCELLUS SHALE EAGLE FORD SHALE
413.6 531.8 602.5 627.1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
2017 Guidance: 8% - 12%
Proven Track Record of Production and Reserve Growth
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Annual Production (Bcfe)
5.5 7.4 8.2 8.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Proved Undeveloped Proved Developed
Year-End Proved Reserves (Tcfe)
Industry-Leading Cost Structure Continues to Improve…
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$1.21 $0.87 $0.55 $0.71 $0.57 $0.37 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Company All-Sources Finding & Development Costs ($/Mcfe) Marcellus All-Sources Finding & Development Costs ($/Mcf)
$0.65 $0.49 $0.40 $0.43 $0.31 $0.26 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
…Allowing Cabot to Successfully Navigate through All Commodity Prices
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$1.88 $1.74 $1.31 $1.30 $1.30 $1.16 $1.15 $1.12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Operating Transportation¹ Taxes O/T Income Cash G&A² Financing Exploration³
1 Includes all demand charges and gathering fees 2 Excludes stock-based compensation 3 Excludes dry hole costCash Operating Expenses ($/Mcfe)
Cabot’s Drilling Efficiencies Continue to Drive Costs Lower Across Both Operating Areas
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Marcellus Drilling Costs / Foot
2014 2015 2016 1H 2017
Eagle Ford Drilling Costs / Foot
2014 2015 2016 1H 2017
Current Leverage Metrics Have Improved to Pre- Downcycle Levels
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Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX
1.4x 1.4x 0.9x 1.2x 2.5x 1.8x 1.3x 1.1x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Average net debt / EBITDAX ratio prior to the recent downcycle: 1.2x
Top-Tier Cash Flow Growth and Free Cash Flow Generation
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65% 60% 58% 57% 55% 51% 44% 40% 36% 34% 30% 30% 27% 26% 17% 14% 13% 9%
Consensus 2016 – 2018E Cash Flow Per Share CAGR Consensus 2017E Free Cash Flow Yield
2% 1% (0%) (1%) (1%) (1%) (2%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) (4%) (4%) (4%) (4%) (7%) (11%) (18%)
Source: FactSet median consensus as of July 25, 2017. Peers include Antero Resources, Cimarex Energy, Concho Resources, Continental Resources, Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy, Encana Corporation, EQT Corporation, Gulfport Energy, Marathon Oil, Newfield Exploration, Noble Energy, Parsley Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources, Range Resources, Rice Energy and RSP Permian. Free cash flow yield defined as estimated operating cash flow less estimated capital expenditures divided by shares outstanding divided by current share price.Cabot’s Generation 4 Marcellus Wells Continue to Outperform
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 20 40 60 80 100 Cumulative Production (Mmcf per 1,000 Lateral Feet) Days of Production COG Generation 4 Wells Generation 4 Type Curve (4.4 Bcf / 1,000')
4.4
Appalachian Gas Play Non-Appalachian Gas Play
Cabot’s Marcellus Position is the Most Prolific U.S. Onshore Natural Gas Resource Play
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Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) – Bcfe/1,000 Lateral Feet
Source: Current investor presentations as of May 24, 2017. Peers include Antero Resources, Chesapeake Energy, CONSOL Energy, Eclipse Resources, EQT Corporation, Gulfport Energy, Range Resources, Rice Energy, and Southwestern Energy. For companies with multiple type curves, a weighted average was used based on location count or acreage.Cabot’s Marcellus Drilling Efficiencies
12 Drilling Days vs. Depth - Spud to Rig Release Drilling Cost Per Foot Drilled $324 $259 $233 $200 $153 <$140 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 5 10 15 20 Total Measured Depth (Ft.) Days 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Upgraded rigs, lower contracted day rates and continued efficiency gains should lead to further reductions in drilling costs in 2017
2018 is an Inflection Year for Cabot:
Cabot Has the Ability to Double Its Marcellus Production Based on Its Future Firm Transport / Firm Sales Additions
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~2.0 Bcf/d 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.5 ~3.7 Bcf/d 3.7 135 Mmcf/d 165 Mmcf/d 240 Mmcf/d 1 Bcf/d 150 Mmcf/d 500 Mmcf/d 2016 Gross Marcellus Production Exit Rate TGP Orion (December 2017) Moxie Freedom Power Plant (June 2018 - currently under construction) Lackawanna Energy Center Power Plant (June to December 2018
under construction) Atlantic Sunrise (Mid-2018) PennEast (2H 2018) Future Gross Production Capacity (Excluding Constitution Pipeline) Constitution Pipeline (As Early As 1H 2019)
transport capacity and firm sales
incremental production volumes (as opposed to rerouting existing production) will ultimately be dependent on realized prices and the corresponding economics / returns at those prices
Best-in-Class Marcellus Capital Efficiency
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$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
Estimated Drilling, Completion and Facility Capital to Hold 3.7 Bcf/d of Gross Marcellus Production Flat ($mm) Average Annual Pre-Tax Marcellus Free Cash Flow at 3.7 Bcf/d Flat ($mm)
$872 $1,446 $2,020 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $2.00 / Mcf Realized Price $2.50 / Mcf Realized Price $3.00 / Mcf Realized Price
Average Annual Maintenance Capital: ~$500mm
Note: Excludes corporate G&A, interest expense and income taxes. Assumes $0.80 per Mcf for LOE, regional G&A, gathering & transportation, and taxes other than15
Significant Positive Free Cash Flow is on the Horizon, Providing Cabot With Options to Create Shareholder Value
Potential Uses of Positive Free Cash Flow
Accelerate Production and Cash Flow Growth via Increased Activity in Cabot’s Current High-Return Operating Areas Evaluate New Platforms for Future Growth that Compete for Capital (Identify Opportunities that Provide Competitive Full-Cycle Returns) Return a Portion of Cash Flow to Shareholders (Increase Dividend / Share Repurchase Program) Reduce Debt Levels
Previously announced an increase in 2017 Eagle Ford capital in response to higher rates of return Planning to ramp up Marcellus activity in 2018 in anticipation of new takeaway capacity / improved Marcellus price realizations Currently evaluating new outlets for Marcellus production growth Announced up to $125mm of capital in 2017 to lease and test new exploratory areas ($91mm spent through Q2 2017) Focused on grassroots leasing in areas with low cost of entry and the ability to build sizable, contiguous acreage footprints similar to our Marcellus and Eagle Ford positions Announced a 150 percent increase in quarterly dividend on May 3, 2017 Repurchased 3.0 million shares at an average price
under the current share repurchase program) Management continues to view further dividend increases and share repurchases as part of the long-term strategy for creating shareholder value Absolute debt is ~$500mm lower today as compared to year-end 2015 Cabot’s leverage ratios continue to improve to pre- downcycle levels and the current forecast implies a significant de-leveraging over the coming years The Company has ~$300mm of debt maturing in 2018
2017 Program Overview
17 2017E Production Growth: 8% - 12% 2017E Oil Production Growth: 10% - 15% Net D&C Activity 2017E Total Program Spending: $845 mm
(includes $70 mm of equity pipeline investments and up to $125 mm of exploratory leasing / testing capital)
2017E D&C Capital1: $610 mm
8% 5% 15% 72% Equity Pipeline Investments Maintenance Leasing / Other Exploratory Leasing / Testing Drilling / Completion / Facilities 67% 33% Marcellus Eagle Ford
Drilled Uncompleted (DUC) Inventory Average Lateral Lengths (Ft.)
1 Includes facilities and pumping units38 95 76 90 FY 2016 FY 2017E Wells Drilled Wells Completed 26 35 19 10 YE 2016 YE 2017E Eagle Ford Marcellus 6,854 6,187 8,000 6,970 10,805 8,779 9,000 8,800 FY 2016 Drilled FY 2016 Completed FY 2017E Drilled FY 2017E Completed Eagle Ford Marcellus
2017 Guidance
Full-year 2017 total company production growth guidance: 8% - 12% Full-year 2017 oil production growth: 10% - 15% 2017 exit-to-exit oil production growth: 40% - 50% 2017 total program spending (including equity pipeline investments): $845 million – 2017 E&P capital budget: $775 million
and facilities
67% Marcellus Shale / 33% Eagle Ford Shale
capital ($91 million spent through Q2 2017) – 2017 equity pipeline investments: $70 million (assumes a July 1, 2018 in-service date for Atlantic Sunrise) 2017 drilling and completion activity guidance: – 95 net wells drilled (60 Marcellus / 30 Eagle Ford / 5 Exploration) – 90 net wells completed (51 Marcellus / 39 Eagle Ford) 2017 income tax rate guidance: 38% 2017 deferred tax rate guidance1: 90% Q3 2017 Net Production Guidance Natural Gas (Mmcf/d) 1,750 - 1,800 Oil (Bbls/d) 13,000 - 13,750 Natural Gas Liquids (Bbls/d) 1,350 - 1,450 Q3 2017 Natural Gas Price Exposure By Index Fixed Price (~$2.12) 42% Leidy Line Receipts 15% TGP Zone 4 – 300 Leg 15% NYMEX 13% Columbia 6% Dominion 5% Millennium East 4% Note: An additional deduct of ~$0.05 per Mcf should be applied to account for fuel use FY 2017 Cost Assumptions ($/Mcfe, unless otherwise noted) Direct operations $0.15 - $0.16 Transportation and gathering $0.70 - $0.71 Taxes other than income $0.05 - $0.06 Depreciation, depletion and amortization $0.85 - $0.95 Interest expense $0.12 - $0.13 General and administrative ($mm)2 $55 - $60 Exploration3 ($mm) $18 - $20
(1) Based on July 2017 strip prices; subject to change (2) Excluding stock-based compensation (3) Excluding exploratory dry hole costs18
Financial Position and Risk Management Profile
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Fixed Price (~$2.12) 42% TGP Zone 4 – 300 Leg 15% NYMEX 13% Millennium East 4% Columbia 6% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 7.2% 6.5% 4.3% 6.2% 3.7% Natural Gas (NYMEX) Swaps Total Volume (Bcf) Average Price per Mcf Natural Gas (NYMEX) Collars Total Volume (Bcf) Average Floor Price per Mcf Average Cap Price per Mcf Oil (WTI) Collars Total Volume (Mmbbls) Average Floor Price per Bbl Average Cap Price per Bbl 51.7 $3.23 35.5 $3.09 $3.43 1.8 $50.00 $56.39 As of 6/30/2017 $bn Cash and Cash Equivalents $0.5 Debt $1.5 Net Debt $1.0 Net Capitalization $3.6 Liquidity $2.2 Net Debt / Capitalization 27.6% Net Debt / LTM EBITDAX 1.1x
Q3 2017 Natural Gas Price Exposure by Index 2017 Hedge Position Debt Maturity Schedule ($mm) (Including Weighted Average Coupon Rate) Capitalization / Liquidity
4.2% Leidy Line 15% Dominion 5%
2017 Hedge Summary
20 2017 Natural Gas Swaps # of Total $/Mcf Pricing Index Contracts Mcf/Day Fixed Price Duration LDS NYMEX 10 97,144 $3.12 Jan-17 Dec-17 TCO 5 48,572 $3.46 Feb-17 Dec-17 2017 Natural Gas Collars # of Total $/Mcf Pricing Index Contracts Mcf/Day Floor Ceiling Duration LDS NYMEX 10 97,144 $3.09 $3.43 Jan-17 Dec-17 2017 Oil Collars # of Total $/Bbl Pricing Index Contracts Bbls/Day Floor Ceiling Duration NYMEX (WTI) 5 5,000 $50.00 $56.39 Jan-17 Dec-17
Cabot’s Marcellus Infrastructure Update
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Atlantic Sunrise
the project began in March 2017
regulatory approvals, we anticipate beginning construction on the greenfield portion of the project in Q3 2017
(expected in August 2017)
(expected in August 2017)
take ~10 months
in-service date PennEast Pipeline
months
Moxie Freedom and Lackawanna Energy Center Power Plants
schedule Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) Orion Project
2017
Constitution Pipeline
NYDEC permit denial
Other Projects
EBITDAX and Net Debt Reconciliations
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Net Income (Loss) Excluding Selected Items and Discretionary Cash Flow Reconciliations
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A decade of progress and perseverance in the Marcellus Shale.