Schooling for Learning in sub-Saharan Africa Regional Study on the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Facing Forward: Schooling for Learning in sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Study on the Quality of Basic Education Presentation to the “National Dialogue on Education Quality and Learning Outcomes in Kenya”

2 February, 2018

Worl rld Development Report 2018: : Learning to Realize the Promise of f Education

• Learnin

ing cris risis is in in develo lopin ing countrie ies

• Im

Immedia iate causes

• Children come unprepared to learn
• Teachers lack skills and motivation
• Inputs fail to arrive to schools
• Poor governance and management
• Th

Three acti tions

• Assess learning
• Act on Evidence
• Align systems

2

3

Afr fric ica St Study on Quali lity of f Ba Basic ic Educatio ion, 2018: Facin ing Forw rward – Sc Schooli ling for Le Learnin ing in in Afr fric ica

Compares countries by education progress and learning Four focus areas: student progression, teachers, budgets, capacity gaps What are the implications for Kenya?

Kenya in in a comparative perspective

• Has done well

ll on access in in prim imary ry and secondary education (“Group 1 country)

• Despite facing “many challenges” in mid-nineties
• Is

Is a good performer on regio ional l le learning assessments

• Has spent consistently hig

igh le levels ls on public lic education

• Created a network of in

instit itutions that can im improve quali lity of le learnin ing

4

Kenya can go to next xt le level: : im improve le learning for all ll

• Aim

im hig igher: benchmark again inst mid iddle le in income countries on in international l le learnin ing assessments

• Even the “best” in SSA are behind other regions
• From “Science” to “Service Delivery”
• Learn systematically from the best and adapt to local conditions
• Focus on implementation fidelity
• Develop the cult

lture of contin inuous im improvement

• At all levels of educational administration down to schools

5

Vietnam is a very ry high performer in PIS ISA – How did it do it? ( (1)

• 2001: Fundamental School Quality Standards designed and

implemented (ie budgeted and monitored)

• Physical infrastructure; teaching staff; school organization and

management; community involvement; educational processes and inputs for learning; expected outcomes with respect to enrollment and completion

• Support institutions focused on improving learning
• Provincial and district offices to support teachers and schools
• Tight alignment between materials, training, assessment

6

Vietnam ….(2)

• Analysis of national learning assessments
• Used publicly available items in mathematics and reading from International

Education Assessment (IEA) agency

• Evaluation of TIMSS and PISA – decided to participate in PISA
• Prepared systematically (learnt from Shanghai)
• A small PISA team was constituted, led by a senior researcher at the National

Institute of Educational Science.

• The team mobilized subject specialists to analyze the thinking processes

required to solve the problems presented in the items.

• The subject specialists prepared a synopsis of their findings.
• Synopsis copied and distributed to all 63 provinces for education managers

and teachers to study.

7

What does it take?

• Hig

igh le level poli litical commit itment

• Abili

ility to coordin inate and im imple lement at the Min inis istry le level

• Develop country’s technical resources, providing support to

schools and teachers

• Subject specialists, learning specialists, assessment specialists
• Attention to equit

ity (all ll schools meet min inim imum standards)

• In

Inculcate a cult lture of le learning and adapting at every ry le level l of the system

8

Kenya in a comparative perspective

9

Four groups of countrie ies based on progress in in prim imary ry education –

Kenya is is in in Group 1 (h (hig igh GER and retentio ion and lo low out t of f sc school l chil ildren)

DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION - NOR FOR CIRCULATION 10

Group 1 Established Group 2 Emerged Group 3 Emerging Group 4 Delayed

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 South Africa Zimbabwe Mauritius Ghana Congo, Rep. Botswana Kenya Lesotho Cabo Verde Namibia São Tomé and Principe Swaziland Gabon Congo, Dem. Rep. Tanzania Comoros Cameroon Uganda Togo Rwanda Malawi Nigeria Gambia, The Côte d'Ivoire Mauritania Ethiopia Zambia Mozambique Guinea-Bissau Benin Burundi Madagascar Angola Eritrea Niger Sudan Mali Senegal Equatorial Guinea Burkina Faso Guinea Central African Republic Liberia Chad Percentage Out of school children Gross Enrollment Ratio 2013

GER at 100%

11

De Delayed Emergin ing Em Emerged ed Establis ished

Country Groupings Countries

Lower secondary education ( (GER) – Kenya has made great progress sin ince 2000 ( (data not stric ictly comparable)

12

20 40 60 80 100 120 Congo, Rep. Lesotho Swaziland Ghana Zimbabwe Cabo Verde Mauritius Botswana Namibia South Africa Kenya Tanzania Cameroon Comoros Uganda Malawi Togo Burundi Mozambique Madagascar Ethiopia Guinea-Bissau Mauritania Côte d'Ivoire Benin Gambia Zambia Nigeria Niger Chad Burkina Faso Senegal Guinea Mali

• Eq. Guinea

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 2000 Most Recent Year

Kenya faced many so socia ial l and economic ic chall llenges in in th the mid/ id/ la late nine inetie ies – but t has done better than others facin ing sim simil ilar challe llenges

Education Progress 2000-2015 Challenges* in mid/late 1990s Group 1 Established Group 2 Emerged Group 3 Emerging Group 4 Delayed Few Botswana, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Lesotho, São Tomé and Príncipe, Swaziland, Mauritius Comoros Benin, Mauritania Some Congo, Rep., Gabon, Namibia Cameroon, Malawi, Tanzania, Togo Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Guinea- Bissau, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Zambia Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Senegal Many Kenya, South Africa, Zimbabwe Rwanda, Uganda, Congo, Dem. Rep. Angola, Burundi, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nigeria Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Liberia, Niger, Sudan

* Challenges: population size, growth in school-age population, economic growth rate, economic inequality, poverty, linguistic diversity, conflict

Few stu tudents at t mini inimum profic ficie iency le level. l..better in in Group 1 and Bu Buru rundi

<25% 25-49% 50-74% >=75% Mauritius Botswana Kenya South Africa Congo, Rep. Swaziland Seychelles Lesotho Namibia Zimbabwe Ghana Togo Cameroon Uganda Malawi Tanzania Rwanda Burundi Benin Côte d'Ivoire Zambia Ethiopia Mozambique Nigeria Senegal Burkina Faso Chad Niger Mali Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4

Percentage of test takers reaching minimum proficiency

(ea (each do dot t represents an an internatio ional or

• r reg

egional l asse assess ssment in n Rea eading, g, Math, , an and Scie Science fr from ear early ly gr grade to to lower sec secondary ry, an and ad adult lit iteracy)

Math scores (S (SACMEQ) Q) have im improved over tim ime in in most countries

15

Mauritius Kenya Swaziland Botswana South Africa Lesotho Namibia Zimbabwe Tanzania Uganda Malawi Mozambique Zambia 400 500 600 700 SACMEQ II SACMEQ III SACMEQ IV SACMEQ II SACMEQ III SACMEQ IV SACMEQ II SACMEQ III SACMEQ IV Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

But Learning Crisis in SSA is Serious

• By in

internatio ional l standards, SS SSA countrie ies are very ry lo low perf rform rmers

• Average TIM

TIMSS SS math and sc scien ience sc scores of f stu tudents in in Bo Bots tswana, Ghana and So South Afr fric ica:

• between one and two standard deviations below the international TIMSS scale

center points of 500

• well below the scores of 8th grade students from the other low- and middle-

income countries

• several standard deviations below the scores of students in high-income

countries

16

Lower secondary (grade 8) TIMSS mathematics scores, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015, selected countries, by region

United States England Japan South Korea Malaysia Indonesia Chile El Salvador Colombia Lebanon Jordan Iran Morocco Saudi Arabia Botswana (9) South Africa (9) Ghana 200 300 400 500 600 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 North America & Europe Asia LAC MENA SSA

18

What in influ luences le learnin ing? (Evid idence from Analysis is of Learning Assessments and Im Impact Evalu luations)

• Socio-economic status (SES): Children from high

income households do far better than children from low income households

• Average SES of students in school: one of most

important correlates of learning; large horizontal inequalities between schools

• Community location: Rural-urban gap
• Gender effect varies
• Language: children who do not speak language
• f instruction at home do significantly worse

Equity is a major issue in SSA

• Structured pedagogy (tightly linked curriculum,

teacher training, instructional materials, assessment)

• Teacher content knowledge
• Teacher pedagogical practices
• More instructional time
• Infrastructure, classroom and school

pedagogical resources

Teachers, Classroom and School Resources Make a Difference

19

• 1. Student Progression from early grades to

end of lower secondary, with learning

• 2. Teacher Management and Support
• 3. Using the Budget to Improve Quality
• 4. Closing the Capacity Gap

Four Focus Areas for SSA countries

20

• 1. Student Progression from early

grades to end of lower secondary, with learning

Focus area 1

21

Address Demand-Side Constraints in transition to lower secondary education Expand Access to Lower Secondary Education Address Early Grade “Traffic Jam”

Student progression: early grades through basic education

Early Grade “Traffic Jam” : 3 interlinked factors

• Progression through Prim

imary ry Cycle le: Kenya seems to do fairly well in progression through the early grades, but this should be monitored in every school.

• Learning envir

ironments: Class sizes are large in early grades; teachers unprepared to teach reading and numeracy; insufficient materials.

• Language of in

instruction may y not be appropriate

• Children encounter a “reading mountain”
• If they don’t master early literacy skills by end of grade 2 and

reading comprehension by end of grade 4, they will not progress

22

Child ildren are stuck in in early ly grades: SSA countries are the worst performers on composite in index of in internal l in inefficie iency)

23

Rwanda Madagascar Uganda Guinea-Bissau Burundi Ethiopia Sierra Leone Togo Chad Benin Angola DRC Cameroon South Sudan CAR Lesotho Congo Eq Guinea Comoros Botswana Namibia Swaziland Zimbabwe Senegal Ghana Gambia Niger South Africa Guinea Burkina Faso Tanzania Côte d'Ivoire Mali Mauritius Sudan ST&P Eritrea Cabo Verde

• 6
• 5
• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3

Early Grade Inefficiency Index

In countries with high inefficiency, Index shows that over long periods

• f time:
• Entry rate into Grade 1 is over

150

• Grade 2 enrolment/ Grade 1

enrolment is less than 0.8

• Pre-primary enrolment rate is

low Note: Index not estimated for Kenya due to missing data in one of the components (GIR in Grade 1). Values in other indicators suggest high inefficiency does not affect the country:

• Grade 1 Bulge : 122
• Ratio Enrollment Grade 2 to Grade 1: 0.95
• Pre-Primary GER : 53.53

Grade 2: 2: Whether sc school la language used at t home makes big ig dif ifference

24 481 515 456 457 456 458 563 533 453 444 446 440 423 426 481 509 494 497 466 468 95 60 89 82 79 73 66 72 54 38 36 44 106 103 98 67 52 24 46 67 577 574 545 539 535 531 629 606 507 482 481 483 529 528 579 576 546 521 512 535 350 500 650 Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math Congo, Rep. Togo Camer

• on

Burund i Côte d'Ivoire Benin Niger Senega l Burkin a Faso Chad Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Never use LOI at home Gap size Always/Sometimes use LOI at home

PASEC Grade 2: Score gap between students with and without use of the language of instruction at home

More consistent im imple lementation of Language of in instruction polic licy is is needed in in SSA

25

Language of Instruction in various SSA Countries – Policies and Implementation

Group 1 Established Group 2 Emerged Group 3 Emerging Group 4 Delayed Single local language, consistently implemented Botswana Tanzania Burundi Rwanda Somalia Multiple local languages, consistently implemented Mauritius Namibia South Africa Uganda Ethiopia Single local language: changes in policy/ inconsistently implemented Swaziland Madagascar Multiple local languages: changes in policy/ inconsistently implemented or

• nly as pilots

Congo Ghana Kenya Zimbabwe DRC Malawi Angola Benin Mauritania Mozambique Nigeria Zambia Burkina Faso Mali Niger Senegal

20 40 60 80 100 English Kiswahili Kenya Tanzania (2014 ) Togo Uganda Mozambique Nigeria Senegal Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Percentage Pupil can read a letter (%) Pupil can read a word (%) Pupil can read a sentence (%) Pupil can read paragraph (%)

At the end of 4th

th grade,

, only ly 20 percent can read paragraphs in in Engli lish (Service Deliv livery In Indicators survey)

26

Early grades is is one bottleneck; th the oth ther is is tr transition fr from pri rimary ry to lo lower secondary (g (grade 6/7 or 7/8)

• Rural children
• Kenya: overall good parity, but there are lagging regions
• Girls
• Kenya: overall parity achieved with an index of 0.99, but again lagging regions
• Examinations are a bottleneck
• Kenya: What about KPSCE?
• Provision of quality secondary schools requires careful choices
• Complexity of curriculum: requirements of subject specialists, especially teachers in

maths and science; laboratories

• Boarding schools : are they equitable?

27

How do we address th these is issues in in Kenya?

• All

ll chil ildren must master foundatio ional l sk skil ills ls in in earl rly grades

• Every school and teacher must be clear about expectations of student learning
• If Tusome and Early Grade Mathematics are yielding results, they must be

sustained (books, teacher training, teacher support and classroom

• bservation, assessments, and monitoring)
• All

ll chil ildren sh should ld comple lete lo lower se secondary ry educatio ion with ith quali lity

• Remove qualifying exam, but do assessments (eg Botswana, Mauritius)
• Support girls, poor children, nomadic children to make the transition
• Ensure greater use of equity criteria to allocate students to secondary schools
• Bring day schools on par with boarding schools

28

Pla lan now for th the in increase in in th the lo lower secondary ry stu tudent population in in Kenya

• Do th

the projections

• Plan for schools, classrooms, teachers, materials
• What kind of schools ?
• Usin

ing ICT ICT to reinforce teaching

• Does NOT replace teachers, but can be powerful aid to teachers, especially with low

content knowledge (math and science)

• Curriculum mapped digital materials
• Adapt open education resources
• Formative assessment should be included
• Budget for in-school network, maintenance, technical support
• Needs detailed implementation plan and technical supervision for roll out

29

30

2.Teachers: Improve Management and Support

Focus area 2

31

Improve teacher deployment/ teacher presence Strengthen leadership of school heads and others Improve professional knowledge and competence

Improve Teacher Management and Support

Ensure all schools have minimum learning conditions Strengthen accountability and incentives

What type of f students become teachers in in Kenya?

• Based on the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) 2015

admission exercise:

• Differences in scores between those admitted to teacher training diploma and

degree programs and to other fields are not large

• Suggests that teacher training programs in Kenya are still able to attract

relatively well-qualified candidates from among the available pool of secondary school graduates.

• But overall, quality of secondary graduates is low, hence teachers have low

content knowledge.

32

Teacher mathematics knowledge (T (TEDS-M) is is correlated wit ith student scores (T (TIM IMSS)

33

Upper secondary graduates in SSA countries would have same knowledge as lower secondary graduates in more developed countries

Chile Georgia Botswana Oman Thailand Malaysia Norway United States Russian Federation Singapore Chinese Taipei R² = 0.7295 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 TIMSS, 2011 TEDS-M, 2008

Teacher knowledge in Kenya is better than in other SSA countries, but lags in more advanced tasks (SDI surveys 2012– 2016, grade 4)

34 63 54 50 42 34 49 92 89 74 73 83 64 49 37 26 22 10 24 Language (average score) Grammar task Composition task Kenya Uganda Togo Tanzania Mozambique Nigeria Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

% correct on language

77 58 33 65 33 42 98 96 79 97 87 89 86 79 65 86 65 70 40 21 13 50 17 16 Mathematic (average core) Adding double digit numbers Subtracting double digits Comparing fractions Kenya Uganda Togo Tanzania Mozambique Nigeria Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

% correct on mathematics

But, teachers’ pedagogical knowledge is low (SDI surveys, grade 4)

35

35 36 25 19 18 15 39 58 31 27 20 19 33 18 25 33 23 14 29 22 11 6 6 7 Pedagogy Average Score (% correct responses) Preparing a lesson plan Assessing children’s abilities Evaluating pupil progress Kenya Tanzania Uganda Togo Nigeria Mozambique Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

Minimum conditions for teaching are not met in SSA (in Kenya, 60% percent meet at least 5 out of 6 conditions)

36

78 75 72 63 55 51 48 43 35 3 37 35 17 12 11 9 49 37 33 27 24 35 20 16 4

Swaziland Mauritius Botswana Kenya Namibia Kenya (2013) Zimbabwe South Africa Lesotho Congo, Rep. Tanzania Malawi Malawi (2013) Togo Uganda Cameroon Mozambique Cote d'Ivoire Zambia Benin Burundi Senegal Burkina Faso Niger Chad Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4

0-1 conditions met 2 conditions met 3 conditions met 4 conditions met 5 conditions met 6 conditions met

% of schools with 5 or 6 conditions met

In Instructional tim ime is is lo lost due to poor teacher management and accountability

Share of teachers by reason for absence from school Share of classes with no instruction going on

37

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Senegal Nigeria Mozambique Madagascar Ethiopia Uganda Togo Tanzania Kenya 4 3 2 1

Authorized leave Unauthorized leave Unknown

29% 25% 45% 27% 48% 48% 22% 57% 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% Senegal Nigeria Mozambique Madagascar Ethiopia Uganda Togo Tanzania Kenya 4 3 2 1

Teacher Prio iority Action (1): P Professional Knowle ledge and Skil kills

38

New entrants Pre-service training

• Pre-service curriculum remains

theoretical, does not teach practical skills that teacher needs

• Align initial teacher education to

new school curriculum, improve quality of practicum, introduce quality assurance for pre-service education

What Works ✓ What DOES NOT work



Existing Stock of Poorly Trained Teachers In-service training

• One-off training (5, 10, 15 days),

away from school, with no recurrent support

• Recurrent support to teacher from

headmaster or others

• Support to improve specific teacher

skills (eg early grade reading; fractions)

Teacher Prio iority Actions (2-5): Supportive envir ironment for teaching

39

Strengthen managerial and instructional leadership

• Appointment based

purely on seniority

• Generalized training
• Competency based

selection

• Dedicated training focused
• n how to coach and

support teachers

• Training on management

What Works✓ What DOES NOT work 

Improve teacher deployment and teacher presence in schools

• Initial deployment

based on students, followed by discretionary teacher transfers

• Rule-based deployment

and transfer policy, implemented strictly

• Substitute teachers

Ensure all schools have minimum learning conditions

• Minimum package not

clearly defined

• Minimum package

budgeted and implemented

Strengthen accountability and incentives

• Untargeted allowances

(eg rural allowance, housing)

• Reliance on school

principals for monitoring attendance

• Incentives based on

data and which are monitored for effect

• Monitoring of

attendance by communities, 3rd party

Kenya has embarked on some ambitious teacher reforms, need to be deepened and expanded

• Negotiated agreement between TSC and unions
• Not a one time action, active management required
• Teacher professional development and acc

ccountability

• Accountability measures often “lack teeth”
• Avoid bureaucratization
• Professionalize teaching force gradually, so that intrinsic motivation becomes more

important

• Teacher pre-serv

rvice education and careers

• How to get universities to enforce higher standards/ quality assurance
• Raise the bar for entry into teaching
• Career development and options for teachers and sch

chool heads

40

Areas th that need strengthening

• Leadership tr

training of f sch chool heads

• Managing large resources
• Continuous upgrading of

f technical staff who support teachers and sch chools

• TSC’s CSOs
• County and sub-county directors
• Provide adequate budgetary resources
• Alig

lignment of f other in institutions wit ith teacher rela lated bodies

• TSC , KICD, CEMASTEA, NEC etc
• Training of

f hig igh quality teacher educators

41

42

• 3. Use the Budget to Improve Quality

Focus area 3

43

Improve the efficiency of public spending on salaries and non-salary inputs Reduce disparities in standards of provision Spend incremental resources to improve learning

Use the Budget to Improve Quality

Strength projections of multi-year resource requirements

Composition of f Education Budget and Execution are Cri ritical for Quality Service Deli livery ry

• Most

t SS SSA countri ries do not t budget for r text xtbooks, sc school l grants, , teacher r tr train inin ing in in th their ir domestic ic budgets

• Heavy reliance on donors; education quality is compromised if there is a

shortfall

• About 15-20 percent of the basic education budget should be non-salary

expenditures

• Executio

ion rates of non-sala lary ry exp xpendit itures are typic icall lly lo low

• Predic

ictabil ilit ity of f fu fundin ing is is also lso vari riable le

• Mini

inistrie ies of f Educatio ion need to in invest in in build ildin ing capacit ity in in budget preparatio ion, , executio ion, procurement, monit itorin ing of perf rform rmance

44

Kenya spends a reasonable amount of f it its budget: How can it it im improve effi ficiency of f spending?

• Allo

locate 15-20% of

• f ed

educatio ion bud budget to

• non

non-sala lary exp xpendit itures

• Textbooks, student materials, teacher training and guides, teacher support, assessment,

information systems are core part of education

• Fund domestically; not continued reliance on donor funding
• Spend on evidence-based programs
• Effic

iciency of

• f sal

salary ry expenditure

• Rationalize teacher deployment and utilization
• Reduce loss of teaching time
• Effic

iciency and and ac accountabili lity ty of

• f non

non-salary ry exp xpenditure

• Procurement practices and contract management
• Textbook unit prices
• Construction unit prices
• School grants allocation and utilization
• Per diems, travel

45

46

• 4. Address Capacity Gaps in Ministries
• f Education

Focus area 4

47

From “Science to Service Delivery” – Closing the Capacity Gap Knowledge of “what to do” and increased financial resources are not enough The challenge is implementation and specific capacities are required

What kind of capacities do Ministries of Education need to improve learning?

• Capacity to collect, analyze and use data
• Technical skills (curriculum, materials development, assessment,

teacher training, planning etc) – or should be able to access them

• Capacity to coordinate
• Negotiation skills (with politicians, local govts, parents, unions, etc)

48

Kenya: Key y data have been mis issing for some tim ime ( (UIS)

Type Desc Description 2000 2000-2004 04 2005 2005-2009 09 2010 2010-2014 14 Enrollment New entrants to Grade 1 of primary education, both sexes (number) Present Present Present Repetition rate in primary education (all grades), both sexes (%) Present Present Completion rate, primary education, both sexes (%) Present Present Present Enrolment in secondary education, both sexes (number) Present Present Net intake rate to Grade 1 of primary education, both sexes (%) Survival rate to the last grade of primary education, both sexes (%) Present Present Effective transition rate from primary to lower secondary general education, both sexes (%) Present Enrolment in secondary vocational, both sexes (number) Present Present Teachers Teachers in primary education, both sexes (number) Present Present Present Percentage of teachers in primary education who are trained, both sexes (%) Present Present Teachers in secondary education, both sexes (number) Present Present Present Percentage of teachers in secondary education who are trained, both sexes (%) Present Spending Government expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP (%) Present Present Present Expenditure on primary as a percentage of total government expenditure (%) Present Present Present Expenditure on secondary as a percentage of total government expenditure (%) Present Present Present Expenditure on school books and teaching material as % of total expenditure in primary public institutions (%) Present Teaching staff compensation as a percentage of total expenditure in public institutions (%) Present

Capacity acquisition in in education sector requires as much pla lanning as curriculum pla lanning

• Institutional and technical capacity of all supporting

institutions (TSC, KICD, etc)

• Data collection and Information literacy of all staff
• Coordination and leadership capacity of top cadres

50

Looking Ahead: Key issues

• Kenya has achie

ieved:

• Good educational progress since the nineties
• Good standing in Economic Growth
• But all

ll can be easil ily je jeopardized if if ele levated Fertili lity R Rates persists

• Confli

lict can set educational attain inment back by a decade

51

Lo Looking ahead: Ele levated Fertility R Rate

Total Fertility Rate (TFR,) circa 2014 Education Progress ss TFR 1 1 an and 2 TFR 3 TFR 4 TFR 5+ 5+ Gr Group 1 (Es (Established) Mauritius; Botswana; Cape Verde; S. Africa Gabon; Lesotho; Namibia; Swaziland; STP; Zimbabwe Congo; Ghana; Kenya Gr Group 2 (Em (Emerged) Cameroon; Togo DRC; Malawi; Tanzania; Uganda Gr Group 3 (Em (Emerging) Burundi; Cote d’Ivoire; Ethiopia; Madagascar; Mauritania Angola; Benin; Gambia; Guinea- Bissau; Mozambique; Nigeria; Rwanda; Zambia Gr Group 4 (De (Dela layed) CAR; Eritrea; Sudan Burkina Faso; Chad; Eq. Guinea Guinea; Liberia; Mali; Niger; Senegal; Sierra Leone; Somalia

52

53

Thank You

Sugg Suggested cit citatio ion: Bas Bashir ir, Saj Sajit itha, , Marl arlaine Loc Lockheed, , El Eliz izabeth Nin inan, , an and Jee Jee-Peng Tan. . For

• rth

thcomin ing. . Fac acing For

• rward: Sc

Schoolin ing for

• r Lea

Learnin ing in Afr fric

• ica. Washington, DC

DC: Wor

• rld

ld Ban Bank