On the Possibility of a On the Possibility of a Green Revolution in Green Revolution in Sub- -Saharan Africa Saharan Africa Sub Keijiro Otsuka Otsuka Keijiro Foundation for Advanced Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Studies on International Development (FASID) Development (FASID) 1 1
In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia, In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia, population grew rapidly, grain yield was population grew rapidly, grain yield was stagnant, and uncultivated land was stagnant, and uncultivated land was being exhausted. Therefore, there was being exhausted. Therefore, there was serious fear of famine in Asia. serious fear of famine in Asia. • Contemporary Sub- -Saharan Africa (SSA) is Saharan Africa (SSA) is • Contemporary Sub so similar to tropical Asia several decades so similar to tropical Asia several decades ago. ago. • A main difference is that we now have • A main difference is that we now have accumulated knowledge and technology in accumulated knowledge and technology in Asia which is potentially useful for SSA. Asia which is potentially useful for SSA. 2 2
Figure 1. Changes in Grain Yield (ton per ha) in Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia tons / ha 0 1 2 3 1961 1963 1965 Sub-Saharan Africa 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 South & Southeast Asia 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 3
Contents Contents 1. What is the essence of the Asian Green What is the essence of the Asian Green 1. Revolution? Revolution? 2. Why has it been so difficult to realize a Why has it been so difficult to realize a 2. GR in SSA? GR in SSA? 3. Is it possible to realize a GR in SSA? Is Is it possible to realize a GR in SSA? Is 3. there any encouraging evidence? there any encouraging evidence? 4. What should be strategy to realize a What should be strategy to realize a 4. Green Revolution in SSA? Green Revolution in SSA? 4 4
How can we increase crop yield per ha? How can we increase crop yield per ha? 1) Shift production function upward (develop 1) Shift production function upward (develop fertilizer- -responsive varieties, capable of responsive varieties, capable of fertilizer converting nutrients to grains efficiently) converting nutrients to grains efficiently) 2) Apply more inputs, particularly fertilizer Apply more inputs, particularly fertilizer 2) Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia: Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia: Development and diffusion of a series of Development and diffusion of a series of fertilizer- -responsive, high responsive, high- -yielding modern yielding modern fertilizer varieties (MVs MVs). ). varieties ( 5 5
Comparison of IR8, the original shorter modern rice variety, with Peta, a traditional tall variety and one IR8’s parents (1st two photos); lodging (bottom photo) 6
Figure 2. Yield Curves of Traditional Varieties (TVs) and Modern Varieties (MVs) Yield/Ha Improved MVs & irrigation Early MVs TVs Fertilizer/Ha 7
Figure 3. Trends in world rice production Figure 3. Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006 and real rice price,1961-2006 700 1500 Production of unmilled rice (milliom MT 600 1200 Production 500 Rice price (2006 US$/ton) 900 400 300 600 Real price 200 300 100 Nominal price 0 0 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1997 2006 Year Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.20Apr2006 udpate. Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 1 March 2007 data up 8 Source: www.,WorldBank.org
Summary of the Asian Green Revolution (GR) • Continuous development and diffusion of fertilizer- responsive and pest- and disease-resistant MVs made GR possible. • MVs are particularly high-yielding in favorable areas, such as irrigated areas and shallow rainfed areas. • There is, however, a strong sign that the GR is ending. • MV adoption rate now is 70-75% in Asia, implying that nearly 25% of areas has been bypassed by the GR. • Such unfavorable areas are primarily drought-prone areas, where people are particularly poor. 9
Lessons of Asian Green Revolution for Sub-Saharan Africa 1. Need fertilizer-responsive and drought-tolerant varieties for SSA where rainfall is low and unpredictable. 2. Need fertilizer, where chemical fertilizer is often prohibitively expensive. 3. The use of cow manure may be recommended. 4. For manure production, stall-feeding and cultivation of feed crops are essential, as the Agricultural Revolution in 18 th century England clearly attested. 10
Case 1: Organic Maize and Banana Case 1: Organic Maize and Banana Green Revolution in East Africa Green Revolution in East Africa Stall- -feeding of highly productive feeding of highly productive dairy dairy � Stall � cows, which are cross which are cross- -breeds between breeds between cows, European cows and local cows European cows and local cows Use of manure and compost, as well as � Use of manure and compost, as well as � chemical fertilizer chemical fertilizer Use of high- -yielding hybrid maize varieties yielding hybrid maize varieties � Use of high � and locally improved banana varieties and locally improved banana varieties 11 11
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Bananas (Plantains) and Improved Cows in 13 Uganda
Fig. 4 Maize Yield in Kenya and Uganda Kenya Uganda Kgs/Ha
Fig. 5 Chemical Fertilizer Use Adoption rate (%) Applied Quantity (Kgs/Ha) among the Adopted Kenya Uganda
Fig. 6 Organic Fertilizer Use Adoption rate (%) Applied Quantity (Kgs/Ha) among the Adopted Kenya Uganda
Fig. 7 Organic Fertilizer Application and Banana Yield in Uganda tons/ha 9 Other Regions 8 South-Western Region 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0-0.5 0.5-1.5 15.- 17 tons/ha
Summary of Major Findings about OGRs OGRs Summary of Major Findings about Stall- -fed dairy cows produce a lot of manure. fed dairy cows produce a lot of manure. Stall 1. 1. Maize yield is nearly 3 tons per ha, if both Maize yield is nearly 3 tons per ha, if both 2. 2. organic and chemical fertilizers are applied organic and chemical fertilizers are applied and improved varieties are adopted and improved varieties are adopted simultaneously. simultaneously. Banana yield increases significantly with an Banana yield increases significantly with an 3. 3. increase in manure application. increase in manure application. The maize and banana OGRs OGRs are taking are taking The maize and banana 4. 4. place in highlands of Kenya and Uganda place in highlands of Kenya and Uganda strong government support. without strong government support. without 18 18
Case 2: NERICA in Uganda Case 2: NERICA in Uganda � NERICA is NERICA is “ “New Rice for Africa, New Rice for Africa,” ” high high- - � yielding and short- -maturing upland rice maturing upland rice yielding and short varieties developed by WARDA. varieties developed by WARDA. � Like the case of Asian Green Revolution, Like the case of Asian Green Revolution, � policy- -makers are excited about shining makers are excited about shining policy prospects of NERICA in Uganda. prospects of NERICA in Uganda. � FASID conducted the first empirical study on FASID conducted the first empirical study on � NERICA. NERICA. 19 19
NERICA in Uganda (5 tons/ha?) 20
Yield of NERICA in Uganda by previous crop and region (ton/ha) Previous Average Traditional New rice crops rice region region Rice/maize 1.8 2.4 1.5 Leguminous 2.6 3.0 2.1 crops Tobacco 3.1 3.3 2.5 Average 2.1 2.7 1.5 21
How Revolutionary is NERICA? How Revolutionary is NERICA? � The average NERICA yield of 2.1 tons/ha is twice � The average NERICA yield of 2.1 tons/ha is twice as high as the average rice yield in SSA. (In as high as the average rice yield in SSA. (In Japan it took 100 years to increase upland rice Japan it took 100 years to increase upland rice yield from 1 ton/ha to 2 tons/ha.) yield from 1 ton/ha to 2 tons/ha.) � Yield of 3.3 tons/ha on fields planted previously to � Yield of 3.3 tons/ha on fields planted previously to fertilizer- -using tobacco in traditional rice growing using tobacco in traditional rice growing fertilizer areas is truly revolutionary, suggesting that areas is truly revolutionary, suggesting that NERICA is also fertilizer- -responsive high responsive high- -yielding yielding NERICA is also fertilizer varieties. varieties. � In order to sustain the NERICA Revolution, the � In order to sustain the NERICA Revolution, the application of manure and/or chemical fertilizer is application of manure and/or chemical fertilizer is essential. essential. 22 22
Prospect of Green Revolution in SSA 1. It is no longer a dream to realize a Green Revolution in SSA, as OGRs and NERICA Revolution indicate. 2. In order to realize a GR, we need to invest more in research and development of drought-tolerant and yield-enhancing technologies. 3. In order to sustain a GR, we need to develop effective soil management practices based on crop-livestock interactions or the use of chemical fertilizer. 23
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