On the Possibility of a On the Possibility of a Green Revolution in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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On the Possibility of a On the Possibility of a Green Revolution in Green Revolution in Sub Sub-

• Saharan Africa

Saharan Africa

Keijiro Keijiro Otsuka Otsuka Foundation for Advanced Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Studies on International Development (FASID) Development (FASID)

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In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia, In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia, population grew rapidly, grain yield was population grew rapidly, grain yield was stagnant, and uncultivated land was stagnant, and uncultivated land was being exhausted. Therefore, there was being exhausted. Therefore, there was serious fear of famine in Asia. serious fear of famine in Asia.

• Contemporary Sub

Contemporary Sub-

• Saharan Africa (SSA) is

Saharan Africa (SSA) is so similar to tropical Asia several decades so similar to tropical Asia several decades ago. ago.

• A main difference is that we now have

A main difference is that we now have accumulated knowledge and technology in accumulated knowledge and technology in Asia which is potentially useful for SSA. Asia which is potentially useful for SSA.

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Figure 1. Changes in Grain Yield (ton per ha) in Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

1 2 3 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 tons / ha

Sub-Saharan Africa South & Southeast Asia

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Contents Contents

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• 1. What is the essence of the Asian Green

What is the essence of the Asian Green Revolution? Revolution? 2.

• 2. Why has it been so difficult to realize a

Why has it been so difficult to realize a GR in SSA? GR in SSA? 3.

• 3. Is it possible to realize a GR in SSA? Is

Is it possible to realize a GR in SSA? Is there any encouraging evidence? there any encouraging evidence? 4.

• 4. What should be strategy to realize a

What should be strategy to realize a Green Revolution in SSA? Green Revolution in SSA?

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How can we increase crop yield per ha? How can we increase crop yield per ha?

1) Shift production function upward (develop 1) Shift production function upward (develop fertilizer fertilizer-

• responsive varieties, capable of

responsive varieties, capable of converting nutrients to grains efficiently) converting nutrients to grains efficiently) 2) 2) Apply more inputs, particularly fertilizer Apply more inputs, particularly fertilizer

Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia: Essence of the Green Revolution in Asia: Development and diffusion of a series of Development and diffusion of a series of fertilizer fertilizer-

• responsive, high

responsive, high-

• yielding modern

yielding modern varieties ( varieties (MVs MVs). ).

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Comparison of IR8, the original shorter modern rice variety, with Peta, a traditional tall variety and one IR8’s parents (1st two photos); lodging (bottom photo)

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Figure 2. Yield Curves of Traditional Varieties (TVs) and Modern Varieties (MVs)

Yield/Ha Improved MVs

& irrigation

Fertilizer/Ha TVs Early MVs

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Production Real price Nominal price 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1997 2006 Year Production of unmilled rice (milliom MT

300 600 900 1200 1500

Rice price (2006 US$/ton) Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.20Apr2006 udpate. Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 1 March 2007 data up Source: www.,WorldBank.org

Figure 3. Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006 Figure 3. Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006

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Summary of the Asian Green Revolution (GR)

• Continuous development and diffusion of fertilizer-

responsive and pest- and disease-resistant MVs made GR possible.

• MVs are particularly high-yielding in favorable areas,

such as irrigated areas and shallow rainfed areas.

• There is, however, a strong sign that the GR is ending.
• MV adoption rate now is 70-75% in Asia, implying that

nearly 25% of areas has been bypassed by the GR.

• Such unfavorable areas are primarily drought-prone

areas, where people are particularly poor.

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Lessons of Asian Green Revolution for Sub-Saharan Africa

1. Need fertilizer-responsive and drought-tolerant varieties for SSA where rainfall is low and unpredictable. 2. Need fertilizer, where chemical fertilizer is often prohibitively expensive. 3. The use of cow manure may be recommended. 4. For manure production, stall-feeding and cultivation of feed crops are essential, as the Agricultural Revolution in 18th century England clearly attested.

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Case 1: Organic Maize and Banana Case 1: Organic Maize and Banana Green Revolution in East Africa Green Revolution in East Africa

• Stall

Stall-

• feeding of highly productive

feeding of highly productive dairy dairy cows, cows, which are cross which are cross-

• breeds between

breeds between European cows and local cows European cows and local cows

• Use of manure and compost, as well as

Use of manure and compost, as well as chemical fertilizer chemical fertilizer

• Use of high

Use of high-

• yielding hybrid maize varieties

yielding hybrid maize varieties and locally improved banana varieties and locally improved banana varieties

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Bananas (Plantains) and Improved Cows in Uganda

• Fig. 4 Maize Yield in Kenya and Uganda

Uganda Kenya

Kgs/Ha

• Fig. 5 Chemical Fertilizer Use

Adoption rate (%)

Uganda Kenya

Applied Quantity (Kgs/Ha) among the Adopted

• Fig. 6 Organic Fertilizer Use

Adoption rate (%)

Uganda Kenya

Applied Quantity (Kgs/Ha) among the Adopted

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0-0.5 0.5-1.5 15.- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Other Regions South-Western Region

• Fig. 7 Organic Fertilizer Application

and Banana Yield in Uganda

tons/ha tons/ha

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Summary of Major Findings about Summary of Major Findings about OGRs OGRs

1. 1.

Stall Stall-

• fed dairy cows produce a lot of manure.

fed dairy cows produce a lot of manure.

2. 2.

Maize yield is nearly 3 tons per ha, if both Maize yield is nearly 3 tons per ha, if both

• rganic and chemical fertilizers are applied
• rganic and chemical fertilizers are applied

and improved varieties are adopted and improved varieties are adopted simultaneously. simultaneously.

3. 3.

Banana yield increases significantly with an Banana yield increases significantly with an increase in manure application. increase in manure application.

4. 4.

The maize and banana The maize and banana OGRs OGRs are taking are taking place in highlands of Kenya and Uganda place in highlands of Kenya and Uganda without without strong government support. strong government support.

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Case 2: NERICA in Uganda Case 2: NERICA in Uganda

• NERICA is

NERICA is “ “New Rice for Africa, New Rice for Africa,” ” high high-

• yielding and short

yielding and short-

• maturing upland rice

maturing upland rice varieties developed by WARDA. varieties developed by WARDA.

• Like the case of Asian Green Revolution,

Like the case of Asian Green Revolution, policy policy-

• makers are excited about shining

makers are excited about shining prospects of NERICA in Uganda. prospects of NERICA in Uganda.

• FASID conducted the first empirical study on

FASID conducted the first empirical study on NERICA. NERICA.

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NERICA in Uganda (5 tons/ha?)

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Yield of NERICA in Uganda by previous crop and region (ton/ha)

1.5 2.7 2.1 Average 2.5 3.3 3.1 Tobacco 2.1 3.0 2.6 Leguminous crops 1.5 2.4 1.8 Rice/maize New rice region Traditional rice region Average Previous crops

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How Revolutionary is NERICA? How Revolutionary is NERICA?

• The average NERICA yield of 2.1 tons/ha is twice

The average NERICA yield of 2.1 tons/ha is twice as high as the average rice yield in SSA. (In as high as the average rice yield in SSA. (In Japan it took 100 years to increase upland rice Japan it took 100 years to increase upland rice yield from 1 ton/ha to 2 tons/ha.) yield from 1 ton/ha to 2 tons/ha.)

• Yield of 3.3 tons/ha on fields planted previously to

Yield of 3.3 tons/ha on fields planted previously to fertilizer fertilizer-

• using tobacco in traditional rice growing

using tobacco in traditional rice growing areas is truly revolutionary, suggesting that areas is truly revolutionary, suggesting that NERICA is also fertilizer NERICA is also fertilizer-

• responsive high

responsive high-

• yielding

yielding varieties. varieties.

• In order to sustain the NERICA Revolution, the

In order to sustain the NERICA Revolution, the application of manure and/or chemical fertilizer is application of manure and/or chemical fertilizer is essential. essential.

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Prospect of Green Revolution in SSA

• 1. It is no longer a dream to realize a Green

Revolution in SSA, as OGRs and NERICA Revolution indicate.

• 2. In order to realize a GR, we need to invest more

in research and development of drought-tolerant and yield-enhancing technologies.

• 3. In order to sustain a GR, we need to develop

effective soil management practices based on crop-livestock interactions or the use of chemical fertilizer.

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But what about extension systems, farmers’ health and education, fertilizer market, credit, and irrigation?

• 1. We have limited resources. Thus, the key

question is where to invest limited fund.

• 2. Strengthening extension systems before

developing new profitable technologies?

• 3. Fertilizer subsidy, cheap credit, and irrigation

investments before developing fertilizer- responsive MVs for SSA?

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What is really needed?

1. What really matters is “excitement” about new technological possibilities. 2. Excitement about new technology will stimulate irrigation investments, initiation of credit programs, and strengthening extension systems, because the excitement is translated into high expected returns. 3. Politicians and farmer are excited about NERICA in

• Uganda. IRRI, Rockefeller & Gates Foundations,

and KO are extremely excited about high potential

• f lowland rice production in Mozambique.

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Thank you very much for your attention