Santa Ana River Wasteload Allocation Model Update BASIN MONITORING - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Santa Ana River Wasteload Allocation Model Update BASIN MONITORING PROGRAM TASK FORCE May 15, 2017

Initial Steps for Model Update Existing HSPF Existing WLAM (R4) Gaging Station for Boundary Inflow 1. Compare results for the period from WY 1995 to 2006 WLAM Update Gaging Station Expanded Area for Model 2. Update both models and Calibration compare the modeling results for the period from WY 2007 to 2016 2

Model Development • 522 subareas were delineated. • Each subarea consists of • Stream segment, • Pervious land area, and • Impervious land area. • They were delineated based on: • Topography • Drainage Patterns • Types of stream channels, and • Location of gaging stations and recharge basins 3

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.72 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Good 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 San Timoteo Creek Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 Near Loma Linda 100000 R 2 = 0.75 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 4 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.84 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Good 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 San Timoteo Creek Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs Near Loma Linda HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 100000 R 2 = 0.77 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 5 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.62 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Fair Warm Creek 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Near San Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs Bernardino HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 100000 R 2 = 0.70 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 6 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.70 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Fair Warm Creek 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Near San Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs Bernardino HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 100000 R 2 = 0.91 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Very Good 1 0.1 7 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 WLAM Update (HSPF) R 2 = 0.72 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2014 SAR at E St. 100000 R 2 = 0.95 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Very Good 1 0.1 8 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.93 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Very Good 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 SAR at E St. 100000 R 2 = 0.97 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Very Good 1 0.1 9 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.68 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Fair 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs SAR at HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 MWD Crossing 100000 R 2 = 0.88 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Very Good 1 0.1 10 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 WLAM Update (HSPF) R 2 = 0.91 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Very Good 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs SAR at HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 MWD Crossing 100000 R 2 = 0.97 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Very Good 1 0.1 11 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 Existing WLAM (R4) 100000 R 2 = 0.42 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs WLAM Update (HSPF) 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Poor 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Temescal Creek Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 at Main St. 100000 R 2 = 0.71 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 1 Good 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 12 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.77 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 Temescal Creek 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs at Main St. HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 100000 R 2 = 0.83 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 1 Good 0.1 13 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.69 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Fair 0.1 Chino Creek at 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 Schaefer Ave. 100000 R 2 = 0.29 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Poor 1 0.1 14 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 WLAM Update (HSPF) R 2 = 0.84 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 Chino Creek at 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs Schaefer Ave. HSPF - WY 2007 to 2016 100000 R 2 = 0.37 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Poor 1 0.1 15 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.48 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Poor 0.1 Cucamonga Creek 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 Near Mira Loma 100000 R 2 = 0.46 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 Poor 1 0.1 16 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 WLAM Update (HSPF) R 2 = 0.76 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Cucamonga Creek Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs Near Mira Loma HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 100000 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs R 2 = 0.83 10000 1000 100 10 Good 1 0.1 17 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 R 2 = 0.66 WLAM Update (HSPF) Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 Daily Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Fair 0.1 SAR into 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 Prado Dam 100000 R 2 = 0.88 Model-Calculated Daily Streamflow, cfs 10000 1000 100 10 1 Very Good 0.1 18 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Daily Streamflow, cfs

Existing WLAM (R4) R4 – WY 1995 to 2006 100000 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs R 2 = 0.93 WLAM Update (HSPF) 10000 Monthly Streamflow 1000 100 10 1 Very Good 0.1 SAR into 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs Prado Dam HSPF – WY 2007 to 2016 100000 Model-Calculated Monthly Streamflow, cfs R 2 = 0.90 10000 1000 100 10 1 Very Good 0.1 19 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Measured Monthly Streamflow, cfs

Summary of Calibration Performance (R 2 ) Daily Streamflow Monthly Streamflow R4 HSPF R4 HSPF Gaging Station WY 95-06 WY 07-16 WY 95-06 WY 07-16 San Timoteo Ck near Loma Linda Good Good Good Good Warm Ck near San Bernardino Fair Good Fair Very Good SAR at E St. Good Very Good Very Good Very Good SAR at MWD Crossing Fair Very Good Very Good Very Good Temescal Ck at Main St. Poor Good Good Good Chino Ck at Schaefer Ave. Fair Poor Good Poor Cucamonga Ck near Mira Loma Poor Poor Good Good SAR into Prado Dam Fair Very Good Very Good Very Good 20

QUESTIONS? 21