Sander Houweling Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
sander houweling
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Sander Houweling Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 19, 2023 157 likes •369 views

Sander Houweling Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands DLR CCC 2018 Urgency of extended greenhouse gas monitoring

slide-1
SLIDE 1

DLR CCC 2018

Sander Houweling

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands

slide-2
SLIDE 2

DLR CCC 2018

  • Urgency of extended greenhouse gas monitoring
  • Emission estimation using existing instrumentation
  • Current capabilities & future needs
  • Implications for the design of new instrumentation
slide-3
SLIDE 3

DLR CCC 2018

  • Help narrow the uncertainty range of carbon cycle – climate scenarios
  • Support the monitoring of planned emission reductions
slide-4
SLIDE 4

DLR CCC 2018

future gas production Groningen gas field

  • Gas production in Groningen will stop in 2030
  • Infrastructure will partly be dismantled
slide-5
SLIDE 5

DLR CCC 2018

  • NDC’s are a good step, but not the final

answer to the <2o target

  • The challenge is enormous
  • Without independent monitoring of

NCD pledges we are unlikely to reach the climate targets

slide-6
SLIDE 6

DLR CCC 2018

  • Global stock take: evaluation of actual emissions against NDCs (5 year

interval starting in 2023) How to ensure compliance with the global increase?

Atmospheric data

UNFCCC inventory + natural fluxes etc.

National statistics IPCC guidelines H2020 VERIFY / CHE, CAMS Operational emission verification (weather/climate centers)

slide-7
SLIDE 7

DLR CCC 2018

  • Global stock take: evaluation of actual emissions against NDCs (5 year

interval starting in 2023) How to ensure compliance with the global increase?

Atmospheric data

UNFCCC inventory + natural fluxes etc.

Operational emission verification (weather/climate centers) National GHG data National statistics IPCC guidelines National scale inverse model H2020 VERIFY / CHE, CAMS WMO – IG3IS

slide-8
SLIDE 8

DLR CCC 2018

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 SCIAMACHY GOSAT present OCO‐3 MicroCarb Feng Yun 3D Gaofen 5 GeoCarb OCO‐2 TanSat CO2M Phased out Currently operational Planned Past, current and planned missions: GOSAT 2

slide-9
SLIDE 9

DLR CCC 2018

Satellite In situ networks Transport model + Optimizer A priori fluxes CO2 XCO2 Inversion optimized fluxes

slide-10
SLIDE 10

DLR CCC 2018

  • ESA GHG CCI (Buchtwitz et al)
  • IAV (long‐term mean removed)
  • Atmos. Transport model

differences 2011 La Nina Satellite retrieval differences

slide-11
SLIDE 11

DLR CCC 2018

OSSE estimated impact on L4 surface fluxes (ESA‐LOGOFLUX)

  • L4 Uncertainty is dominated by the impact

systematic retrieval uncertainty => Cirrus/aerosol scattering

  • NB: Transport model errors not considered

here.

slide-12
SLIDE 12

DLR CCC 2018

  • TRANSCOM Age of Air

(Krol et al, GMDD, 2018) Clock tracers, reset in the ‘forcing volume’ F F = Surface layer

  • Results highlight the

importance of vertical mixing

slide-13
SLIDE 13

DLR CCC 2018

Quantified using model output of the TRANSCOM CH4 inter‐comparison (Patra et al, 2011) Houweling et al (2017)

slide-14
SLIDE 14

DLR CCC 2018

November 12th to December 30th, 2017

FTIR => Imaging spectrometer: ± factor 1000 more data

  • Further enhanced tropical coverage: Geostationary? => ARRHENIUS (EE‐10 proposal)

TROPOMI GOSAT

slide-15
SLIDE 15

DLR CCC 2018

Sudd fresh water marshes South Sudan

  • 30000 – 130000 km2

Seasonal flooded savannah

slide-16
SLIDE 16

DLR CCC 2018

Ehret et al, 2017

Year around measurements >60N!

slide-17
SLIDE 17

DLR CCC 2018

Nassar et al, 2017

Nassar et al (2017) using OCO‐2 data: Sasan powerplant (Singrauli, India) Reported production: 22 Mt/yr OCO‐2 derived estimate: 24.8 ± 4 Mt/yr

slide-18
SLIDE 18

DLR CCC 2018

  • Urban XCO2 signal: Highly dynamic, 2.1 ± 1.2 ppm (ESA‐AEroCarb)

Beijing, Summer 2.1 ppm 0.7 ppm

slide-19
SLIDE 19

DLR CCC 2018 NO2 (σref = 2×1015 cm‐2) CO2 (σref = 0.7 ppm)

courtesy D. Brunner

  • Use of NO2 to facilitate the detection of CO2 plumes (ESA‐SmartCarb)
  • How critical are co‐emitted aerosols for the CO2 retrieval (ESA‐AeroCarb)

Berlin Jänschwalde Boxberg

slide-20
SLIDE 20

DLR CCC 2018

  • Further improvement of GHG monitoring capabilities is critical and urgent
  • Important steps have been taken (e.g. coverage => TROPOMI), or are planned for

the future (e.g. high latitudes => Merlin, local source quantification => CO2M)

  • CO2M: Requirements / payload is investigated in supporting scientific studies (e.g

supporting NO2, aerosol sensors)

  • Modelling capabilities have to develop in parallel, and should receive increasing

priority (on regional as well as local scales)