Runway Safety NextGen Financial analysis of runway safety Rob van - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Runway Safety NextGen Financial analysis of runway safety Rob van - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 27, 2024 118 likes •332 views

Runway Safety NextGen Financial analysis of runway safety Rob van Eekeren Safe-Runway GmbH TRAINING and CONSULTANCY 1 www.Safe-Runway.com INSPIRATION: Two runway excursions www.Safe- Runway.com NO grooving and, NO standard RESA

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Runway Safety NextGen

Financial analysis of runway safety

Rob van Eekeren

Safe-Runway GmbH TRAINING and CONSULTANCY

www.Safe-Runway.com

1

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SLIDE 2

INSPIRATION: Two runway excursions

  • AF 358; 2 aug 2005, A 340, CYYZ,

runway excursion into Etobicoke creek , 12 injuries, fully destroyed.

www.Safe- Runway.com

2

  • TAM3054; 17 July 2007, A 320, SBSP,

runway excursion into road fuel station, 199 fatalities (187 SOB + 12 others) NO grooving and, NO standard RESA………………WHY NOT?

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SLIDE 3

ALARP EASA NPA 2015-18(B)

  • EASA Safety Risk Management defines ALARP:
  • “ Showing that the safety risk is ALARP means

that any further risk reduction is either impracticable or grossly outweighed by the cost”. CYYZ

  • Impracticable ?
  • NO
  • Grossly outweighed by the costs ?

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Cost estimates required

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SLIDE 4

Runway accidents / incidents COSTS 2015-2017

www.Safe- Runway.com

4 Subject

  • Runway Incursions
  • Runway Excursions
  • Veer offs
  • Overruns
  • Runway Underruns
  • On Runway events

OMDB Emirates 521; 3 Aug 2016

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH Source: ICAO

Risk:

  • Human Life & Injury
  • Damage
  • Disruption
  • Indirect effects

Expressed in costs

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SLIDE 5

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

Incursion 1% On runway 37% Underrun 6% Overrun 19% Veer-off 35% Unknown 2%

2015-2017 runway events Costs distribution

51% cost due to Excursions 1% due to Incursions

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SLIDE 6

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

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SLIDE 7

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

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Annual runway accident, severe incident costs

www.Safe- Runway.com

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$ 874

$ 1716

$ 107

$ 318 $ 364 $ 269

$ 340

$ 1607

$ 83

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

In Million $, corrected for purchasing power # Events Cost per Events Yearly costs runway events

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SLIDE 9

The Issue: (Safety) Return Of Investment

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Prevention has been successful for aviation accidents in general. Is this sustainable?

Source: IATA

Risk=f [Probability, Severity]

Runway accidents in principle survivable given the proper mitigations

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SLIDE 10

Risk=f [Probability, Severity] Risk=f [Probability, Severity ]

Runway Safety NEXGEN: A cost-benefit driven system aimed at reaching the ALARP level of safety.

If the mitigation costs grossly outweigh the future accident costs, the risk is acceptable. If not: Implement cost-effective mitigation(s).

  • Prediction of future costs
  • Estimation runway accident likelihood (H2020)
  • Estimation runway accident costs (Safe-Runway GmbH)
  • Costs / Benefit of mitigation(s) (Manufacturers)

Cost-Benefit:

  • Prioritize (Inc, Exc, Ur, Or)
  • Adoptive mitigations
  • Prevention AND Severity
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SLIDE 11

Overrun mitigations Aerodrome

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Inadequate RESA/strip Adequate RESA / strip Alternatives for RESA $ 900 Million annual costs $ 100 Million annual costs. $ 1 Billion since 1999 saved by EMAS

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SLIDE 12

THE CHALLENGE and Recommendations

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Aerodrome

  • perator

2% Aircraft

  • perator

63% Human 8% ISC 27%

2015-2017 Cost distribution

①

Solve disproportional problem aerodromes / aircraft

  • perators (Mutual Fund?)

②

Evolve to Runway Safety NextGen: ALARP by COST-BENEFIT

①

Likelihood prediction (ACRP & H2020)

②

Cost estimation (safe-Runway GmbH)

③

Mitigation(s) Costs-Benefit (Manufacturers)

③

Address RISK, thus costs

a)

Runway Veer-offs

b)

Regional aerodromes

c)

GEN and CAT operations

④

Adequate oversight & Train staff: excursions

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SLIDE 13

robvaneekeren@safe-runway.com

0041 27 288 2134 0031 6 125 90 997 www.safe-runway.com A safe runway is THE core business

TRAINING and CONSULTANCY

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Questions / Discussion

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SLIDE 14

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Veer-off mitigations success

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Veer-off mitigations DONT’s

www.Safe- Runway.com

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Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

Ranking per estimated runway

  • ccurrence COSTS

High-Low

All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data.

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SLIDE 18

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

Ranking per NUMBER of reported runway occurrences. High-Low

All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data.

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SLIDE 19

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH

Ranking Average COSTS per runway EVENT COSTS in $

# runway occurrences

High-Low

All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based

  • n open source data.
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SLIDE 20

COUNTRIES ALPHABETICAL

All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data.

Source: Safe-Runway GmbH