Runway Safety NextGen Financial analysis of runway safety Rob van Eekeren Safe-Runway GmbH TRAINING and CONSULTANCY 1 www.Safe-Runway.com
INSPIRATION: Two runway excursions www.Safe- Runway.com NO grooving and, NO standard RESA ……………… WHY NOT? TAM3054; 17 July 2007, A 320, SBSP, AF 358; 2 aug 2005, A 340, CYYZ, runway excursion into Etobicoke creek , runway excursion into road fuel station, 199 fatalities (187 SOB + 12 others) 12 injuries, fully destroyed. 2
ALARP EASA NPA 2015-18(B) www.Safe- Runway.com EASA Safety Risk Management defines ALARP: “ Showing that the safety risk is ALARP means that any further risk reduction is either impracticable or grossly outweighed by the cost” . CYYZ Impracticable ? NO Grossly outweighed by the costs ? Cost estimates required 3
Runway accidents / incidents COSTS 2015-2017 www.Safe- Runway.com Risk: Subject Human Life & Injury Runway Incursions • • Damage Runway Excursions • • Disruption Veer offs • • Indirect effects Overruns • • Expressed in costs Runway Underruns • On Runway events • Source: Safe-Runway GmbH OMDB Emirates 521; 3 Aug 2016 4 Source: ICAO
2015-2017 runway events Costs distribution Incursion Unknown 2% 1% Veer-off On runway 35% 37% Overrun 19% Underrun 6% 51% cost due to Excursions 1% due to Incursions Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
Annual runway accident, severe incident costs www.Safe- Runway.com In Million $, corrected for purchasing power $ 340 $ 874 $ 1607 $ 364 $ 1716 $ 107 $ 269 $ 318 $ 83 Yearly costs runway events # Events Cost per Events 8 Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
The Issue: (Safety) Return Of Investment www.Safe- Runway.com Prevention has been successful for aviation accidents in general. Is this sustainable? Risk=f [Probability, Severity] Runway accidents in principle survivable given the proper mitigations 9 Source: IATA
Runway Safety NEXGEN: A cost-benefit driven system aimed at reaching the ALARP level of safety. Risk=f [Probability, Severity] Risk=f [Probability, Severity ] • Prediction of future costs • Estimation runway accident likelihood (H2020) • Estimation runway accident costs (Safe-Runway GmbH) • Costs / Benefit of mitigation(s) (Manufacturers) If the mitigation costs grossly outweigh the Cost-Benefit: future accident costs, the risk is acceptable. Prioritize (Inc, Exc, Ur, Or) • Adoptive mitigations • If not: Implement cost-effective mitigation(s). Prevention AND Severity •
Overrun mitigations Aerodrome www.Safe- Runway.com Inadequate RESA/strip Alternatives for RESA Adequate RESA / strip $ 900 $ 100 $ 1 Billion Million Million since annual annual costs. 1999 costs saved by EMAS 11
THE CHALLENGE and Recommendations www.Safe- Runway.com Aerodrome Solve disproportional problem aerodromes / aircraft ① 2015-2017 Cost distribution operator operators (Mutual Fund?) 2% Evolve to Runway Safety NextGen: ALARP by COST-BENEFIT ② Likelihood prediction ( ACRP & H2020) ① ISC 27% Cost estimation (safe-Runway GmbH) ② Mitigation(s) Costs-Benefit (Manufacturers) ③ Address RISK, thus costs ③ Human Runway Veer-offs a) Aircraft 8% operator Regional aerodromes b) 63% GEN and CAT operations c) Adequate oversight & Train staff: excursions ④ 12
Questions / Discussion robvaneekeren@safe-runway.com 0041 27 288 2134 0031 6 125 90 997 www.safe-runway.com A safe runway is THE core business TRAINING and CONSULTANCY 13
www.Safe- Runway.com 14
Veer-off mitigations success www.Safe- Runway.com 15
Veer-off mitigations DONT’s www.Safe- Runway.com 16
Ranking per estimated runway occurrence COSTS High-Low All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data. Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
Ranking per NUMBER of reported runway occurrences. High-Low All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data. Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
Ranking Average COSTS per runway EVENT COSTS in $ # runway occurrences High-Low All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data. Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
COUNTRIES ALPHABETICAL All costs estimates are in absolute size, corrected for purchasing power and based on open source data. Source: Safe-Runway GmbH
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