RISK BASED DAM PORTFOLIO M ANAGEM ENT IN AUSTRALIA Third National - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RISK BASED DAM PORTFOLIO M ANAGEM ENT IN AUSTRALIA Third National Dam Safety Conference Roorkee, India, February 2017 Angus Swindon National Director Power & Water Entura, Hydro Tasmania

Out line Dam Portfolio M anagement – Australian Context Hydro Tasmania’s Dam Portfolio M anagement  Introduction to Hydro Tasmania Business  Hydro Tasmania’s Dam Portfolio Dam Safety M anagement & the use of Risk  Guidelines and Standards which inform the Dam Safety Programme  Programme Arrangement  Risk Acceptance Criteria & Assessment  Risk M itigation - CAPEX  Risk M anagement - OPEX  Program Performance Assessment Examples of Risk M itigation Projects Conclusion

Dam Port folio M anagem ent in Aust ralia Australia experienced a major dam building era in the 1900’s  Oldest dams late 1800’s, rapid expansion post WW2  Large portfolio’s predominantly publicly owned  M oved towards multiple use recognition  New dams / redevelopments commonly using PPP Current situation characterised by  Ageing & deteriorating infrastructure  Increasing community expectations & risk awareness  New understanding & changing standards  Shi�ing societal priori�es → Reduced public funding  Centralised management, fewer diversified skilled resources Difficult to continue to manage as historically → risk based instead of standards based

Dam Safet y M anagem ent & Regulat ion State based oversight – no National Legislation Responsibilities remain with the owner 4 states/ territ have DS Legislation & Regulation, 3 states/ territ don’t Peak body providing leadership and guidance is ANCOLD ANCOLD is an active member of the International body ICOLD       

Key AN COLD Guidelines

Basic DS Program m e Process Context Internal - Business priorities, Nature of portfolio External – Regulation, Public expectations No Dam M anagement Activities Surveillance – Inspection, M onitoring, Reviews Is Operations & maintenance There a Capability, Information, Preparedness Deficit? Risk Assessments Y es No Rectification Activities Is it Undertake maintenance, or tolerable? Investigate, design & undertake major works Y es

HYDRO TASM AN IA Hydro Tasmania owns, operates and maintains 29 hydropower stations 55 major dams + 150 smaller dams 188 headwork gates and valves 22 canals 19 tunnels 43 pipelines 58 machines System configuration 2 large inter-annual storages 5 seasonal storages Run-of-river Australia’s largest clean energy producer Australia’s largest water manager

Hydro Tasm ania Group Owner / Operator Developer Retailer Professional Services

The Hydro Tasm ania Journey Anthony scheme Retail Our history completed (last major) (M omentum) starts Africa NEM Entry M ajor T asmania industrialisation 1914 1940 1960 1980 1989 1994 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Internat. Start of Australian consulting Entura Brand external Offices expansion launched Entura J V consulting established M ultiple projects developed Entura India Opened

Hydro Tasm ania’s 55 Prescribed Dam s 12 Concr Faced Rock Fill 2 Gravity Arch 14 Concrete Gravity 2 Thin Arch 23 Earth 2 Bitumen Faced fill Rock Fill

Cet hana Dam – 110m High CFRD 11

Gordon Dam – 140m High Double Curvat ure Arch

Hydro Tasm ania’s Dam s Portfolio by ANCOLD Hazard Category – 204 Dams in total Population at Severity of Damage & Loss Risk Negligible M inor M edium M ajor 0 142 Very Low 27 Low Significant 1-10 Low 6 Significant 2 High C 11-100 x Significant High C 4 High B 101-1,000 x x 20 High A >1,000 x x x 3 Extreme

ISO 31000 (figure 3) Risk M anagem ent Process 14

Business Risk Fram ew ork Impact (Consequences) Catastrophic+ Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Extreme Catastrophic 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 Likelihood E A. Almost Certain L M H E E E E B. Likely L M H E E E E C. Possible L L M H E E E D. Unlikely L L L M H E E E. Rare L L L L M H F . Extremely Rare L L L L L M H $750M+ $150M+

AN COLD Public Safet y Risk To Life Crit eria 1:10 2 1:10 3 Extreme 1:10 4 High M oderate 1:10 5 Low 1:10 6 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Probable Loss Of Life

Public Safet y - High Risk Since PRA Com plet ed 1:10 2 Prior to Mitigation Current Assessment 1:10 3 Extreme 1:10 4 High 1:10 5 Moderate Low 1:10 6 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Probable Loss Of Life

Public Safet y - High Risk Since PRA Com plet ed 1:10 2 Prior to Mitigation Current Assessment 1:10 3 Dam7 Extreme Dam5 1:10 4 Dam6 High Dam4 Dam8 Dam1 Dam3 1:10 5 Dam2 Dam10 Dam9 Moderate Low 1:10 6 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Probable Loss Of Life

Public Safet y - High Risk Since PRA Com plet ed 1:10 2 Current High Risks 1:10 3 Extreme 1:10 4 High 1:10 5 Dam2 Moderate Low 1:10 6 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Probable Loss Of Life

Analysis & Bus. Case Approval Design & Contract Prep Risk Mitigation Schedule Risk Mitigation Activity mid Programme - 2010 Possible early start / pipeline 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $7m  Dam 1 $13m  Dam 2  Dam 3 $40m  Dam 4 $1m Dam 5 $6m Dam 6 $38m Program 1 $5-6m pa $3m Dam 8 $3m $5m Dam 9 $5m $25m Dam 10 Interim Measures being investigated - Structural works 2017 Summary Cost $21m $11m $16m $12m $16m $11m Estimate for FYE

DAM PORTFOLIO RISK REDU CTION PATHW AYS Hypothetical Risk Reduction Pathways Over Time Life safety Risk vs Time (2000-2020 and beyond) 10 Year Plan Previous Plan Alternative #1 Alternative #2 8.00E-02 10 Year Plan Period Future years Quick Wins Complete Alternative #2 – 7.00E-02 defer program 6.00E-02 Alternative #1 – Dam #1 Life Safety Risk (lives/year) defer program complete 5.00E-02 Potential range of Risk risk variance over 10 Dam #2 4.00E-02 complete year plan period 3.00E-02 Dam #3 complete 2.00E-02 Dam #4 imminent Past 10 years 1.00E-02 plan (complete) Original Program 0.00E+00 2000 Yr 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Yr 10 (now) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Yr 20 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Yr 30 Time Year (with tick mark at June)

Reece Dam – 122m High CFRD

Cat agunya Dam – 49m High Post Tensioned Concr

Row allan Dam – 43m High Eart h & Rockfill

Hydro Tasm ania Financial Risk Crit eria 1 $10M $10k $100k $1M Extreme 0.1 High Annual Probability of Failure 0.01 0.001 What drives action here? 0.0001 M oderate 0.00001 Low 0.000001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Financial Loss ($M)

Sust ain Rat ing Syst em W it hin IBRM - Dam s Dam Sustainability Rating Ancold Hazard Category Very Low Low Significant High C High B High A Extreme DSRdb Consequence Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Deficiency Category Sustain Score 5 2 1 1 H H E E 4 3 2 2 1 1 H H 3 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 26

DS Risk M anagem ent “Balancing Act ” Risks Response Major Heightened High Risk Surveil. Intervention Awareness O&M Deficiencies Increased Scrutiny - Monitoring - Investigation - Reporting - Priority works Increased focus on • routine inspections • monitoring installations • quick wins • addressing outstanding issues • flood warning system • emergency preparedness • use of contractors • training of field staff

DS Program Perform ance Assessm ent Exam ple Compliance - Current Status Previous Report Status Compliance Management Issue Compliance Management Status Status   B B Dam Surveillance   B B Dam Operations and Maintenance   A A Regular Reporting   A A Audits and Reviews Performance of Dams with Heightened   A A Safety Awareness Investigation and Resolution of Dam Safety   A B Deficiencies   A B Emergency Preparedness Maintaining Personnel Capability & Access   A A to Key Technical Information   A A Communication with External Stakeholders

Echo Dam Filt er U pgrade

Echo Dam Filt er U pgrade Embankment Core Zone 2A Sand Filter Zone 2C Drainage Zone 3 Rockfill

Cet hana Dam – Spillw ay U pgrade 31

Cet hana Dam – Spillw ay U pgrade 32

Cat agunya Dam Rest orat ion

Cat agunya Dam Rest orat ion 34

Row allan Dam Em bankm ent U pgrade Embankment Reconstruction Strengthen Walls Investigate Foundation M onitor Spillway Erosion

Row allan Dam Em bankm ent U pgrade

Conclusions Establish the context of portfolio management – this is critical  Regulatory environment  External stakeholders  Shareholder demands & risk appetite  Business capacity & priorities Establish goals, objectives & measures  Financial  Risk  Program delivery & performance Review and monitor performance of the above, incl changes Report outcomes, identify areas for improvement and reset targets

Quest ions

Follow EN TU RA Online For Insight s