RISK BASED DAM PORTFOLIO M ANAGEM ENT IN AUSTRALIA Third National - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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RISK BASED DAM PORTFOLIO M ANAGEM ENT IN AUSTRALIA Third National - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 10, 2023 22 likes •417 views

RISK BASED DAM PORTFOLIO M ANAGEM ENT IN AUSTRALIA Third National Dam Safety Conference Roorkee, India, February 2017 Angus Swindon National Director Power & Water Entura, Hydro Tasmania Out line Dam Portfolio M anagement Australian

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RISK BASED DAM PORTFOLIO M ANAGEM ENT IN AUSTRALIA

Third National Dam Safety Conference Roorkee, India, February 2017

Angus Swindon National Director Power & Water Entura, Hydro Tasmania

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SLIDE 2

Out line

Dam Portfolio M anagement – Australian Context Hydro Tasmania’s Dam Portfolio M anagement

Introduction to Hydro Tasmania Business

Hydro Tasmania’s Dam Portfolio Dam Safety M anagement & the use of Risk

Guidelines and Standards which inform the Dam Safety Programme

Programme Arrangement

Risk Acceptance Criteria & Assessment

Risk M itigation - CAPEX

Risk M anagement - OPEX

Program Performance Assessment Examples of Risk M itigation Projects Conclusion

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Dam Port folio M anagem ent in Aust ralia

Australia experienced a major dam building era in the 1900’s

Oldest dams late 1800’s, rapid expansion post WW2

Large portfolio’s predominantly publicly owned

M oved towards multiple use recognition

New dams / redevelopments commonly using PPP Current situation characterised by

Ageing & deteriorating infrastructure

Increasing community expectations & risk awareness

New understanding & changing standards

 Shiing societal priories → Reduced public funding 

Centralised management, fewer diversified skilled resources Difficult to continue to manage as historically

→ risk based instead of standards based

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SLIDE 4

Dam Safet y M anagem ent & Regulat ion

State based oversight – no National Legislation Responsibilities remain with the owner 4 states/ territ have DS Legislation & Regulation, 3 states/ territ don’t Peak body providing leadership and guidance is ANCOLD ANCOLD is an active member of the International body ICOLD

      

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Key AN COLD Guidelines

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SLIDE 6

Context Internal - Business priorities, Nature of portfolio External – Regulation, Public expectations Dam M anagement Activities Surveillance – Inspection, M onitoring, Reviews Operations & maintenance Capability, Information, Preparedness Rectification Activities Undertake maintenance, or Investigate, design & undertake major works Risk Assessments Is There a Deficit? Is it tolerable? Y es Y es No No

Basic DS Program m e Process

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Hydro Tasmania owns, operates and maintains 29 hydropower stations 55 major dams + 150 smaller dams 188 headwork gates and valves 22 canals 19 tunnels 43 pipelines 58 machines System configuration 2 large inter-annual storages 5 seasonal storages Run-of-river Australia’s largest clean energy producer Australia’s largest water manager

HYDRO TASM AN IA

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Hydro Tasm ania Group

Owner / Operator Developer Retailer Professional Services

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The Hydro Tasm ania Journey

1914 1940 1960 1980 1989 1994 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Our history starts M ultiple projects developed M ajor T asmania industrialisation Start of external consulting Anthony scheme completed (last major) Internat. consulting expansion Australian Offices established Entura Brand launched Africa Entura J V NEM Entry Retail (M omentum) Entura India Opened

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23 Earth fill 14 Concrete Gravity 12 Concr Faced Rock Fill 2 Bitumen Faced Rock Fill 2 Gravity Arch 2 Thin Arch

Hydro Tasm ania’s 55 Prescribed Dam s

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11

Cet hana Dam – 110m High CFRD

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Gordon Dam – 140m High Double Curvat ure Arch

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Population at Risk Severity of Damage & Loss Negligible M inor M edium M ajor 142 Very Low 27 Low Significant 1-10 Low 6 Significant 2 High C 11-100 x Significant High C 4 High B 101-1,000 x x 20 High A >1,000 x x x 3 Extreme

Hydro Tasm ania’s Dam s

Portfolio by ANCOLD Hazard Category – 204 Dams in total

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SLIDE 14

14

ISO 31000 (figure 3) Risk M anagem ent Process

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$150M+ $750M+

Likelihood

Impact (Consequences)

Insignificant 1 Minor 2 Moderate 3 Major 4 Extreme 5 Catastrophic 6

  • A. Almost Certain

L M H E E E

  • B. Likely

L M H E E E

  • C. Possible

L L M H E E

  • D. Unlikely

L L L M H E

  • E. Rare

L L L L M H

F . Extremely Rare

L L L L L M

Catastrophic+ 7

E E E E E H

Business Risk Fram ew ork

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Probable Loss Of Life 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1:106 1:105 1:104 1:103 1:102

High Extreme M oderate Low

AN COLD Public Safet y Risk To Life Crit eria

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Probable Loss Of Life 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1:106 1:105 1:104 1:103 1:102

High Extreme Moderate Low

Prior to Mitigation Current Assessment

Public Safet y - High Risk Since PRA Com plet ed

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Probable Loss Of Life 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1:106 1:105 1:104 1:103 1:102

High Extreme Moderate Low

Dam5 Dam2 Dam6 Dam9 Dam3 Dam7 Dam4 Dam10 Dam1

Prior to Mitigation Current Assessment

Dam8

Public Safet y - High Risk Since PRA Com plet ed

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SLIDE 19

Probable Loss Of Life 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1:106 1:105 1:104 1:103 1:102

High Extreme Moderate Low

Dam2

Current High Risks

Public Safet y - High Risk Since PRA Com plet ed

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$21m $11m $16m $12m $16m $11m Summary Cost Estimate for FYE

Analysis Design & Contract Prep Risk Mitigation Activity & Bus. Case Approval Possible early start / pipeline

2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009

Dam 4 Dam 3

$40m

Dam 6 Dam 9 Dam 8 Dam 10

$3m $5m $25m

Dam 5

Risk Mitigation Schedule mid Programme - 2010

$6m $38m

Program 1

$5-6m pa $3m $5m Interim Measures being investigated - Structural works 2017 $1m

$7m 

Dam 1

$13m 

Dam 2

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Life safety Risk vs Time (2000-2020 and beyond)

0.00E+00 1.00E-02 2.00E-02 3.00E-02 4.00E-02 5.00E-02 6.00E-02 7.00E-02 8.00E-02 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year (with tick mark at June) Life Safety Risk (lives/year) 10 Year Plan Previous Plan Past 10 years plan (complete) 10 Year Plan Period Future years

Potential range of risk variance over 10 year plan period

Risk

Yr 0 Yr 10 (now) Yr 20 Yr 30

Time Hypothetical Risk Reduction Pathways Over Time

Alternative #2 – defer program Quick Wins Complete Dam #1 complete Dam #2 complete Dam #3 complete Dam #4 imminent Alternative #1 – defer program Original Program

Alternative #1 Alternative #2

DAM PORTFOLIO RISK REDU CTION PATHW AYS

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Reece Dam – 122m High CFRD

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Cat agunya Dam – 49m High Post Tensioned Concr

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Row allan Dam – 43m High Eart h & Rockfill

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0.000001 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Financial Loss ($M) Annual Probability of Failure

$10M $1M $100k $10k High Extreme M oderate Low

What drives action here?

Hydro Tasm ania Financial Risk Crit eria

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Dam Sustainability Rating

Very Low Low Significant High C High B High A Extreme 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5 2 1 1 H H E E 4 3 2 2 1 1 H H 3 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 Sustain Score DSRdb Consequence Rating

Ancold Hazard Category Deficiency Category

Sust ain Rat ing Syst em W it hin IBRM - Dam s

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Surveil. O&M Deficiencies High Risk Heightened Awareness

DS Risk M anagem ent “Balancing Act ”

Risks

Increased Scrutiny

  • Monitoring
  • Investigation
  • Reporting
  • Priority works

Increased focus on

  • routine inspections
  • monitoring installations
  • quick wins
  • addressing outstanding issues
  • flood warning system
  • emergency preparedness
  • use of contractors
  • training of field staff

Major Intervention

Response

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DS Program Perform ance Assessm ent Exam ple

Compliance - Current Status Previous Report Status Issue Compliance Management Compliance Status Management Status Dam Surveillance

B  B 

Dam Operations and Maintenance

B  B 

Regular Reporting

A  A 

Audits and Reviews

A  A 

Performance of Dams with Heightened Safety Awareness

A  A 

Investigation and Resolution of Dam Safety Deficiencies

A  B 

Emergency Preparedness

A  B 

Maintaining Personnel Capability & Access to Key Technical Information

A  A 

Communication with External Stakeholders

A  A 

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Echo Dam Filt er U pgrade

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Echo Dam Filt er U pgrade

Embankment Core Zone 2A Sand Filter Zone 2C Drainage Zone 3 Rockfill

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31

Cet hana Dam – Spillw ay U pgrade

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Cet hana Dam – Spillw ay U pgrade

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Cat agunya Dam Rest orat ion

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Cat agunya Dam Rest orat ion

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Row allan Dam Em bankm ent U pgrade

Embankment Reconstruction Strengthen Walls Investigate Foundation M onitor Spillway Erosion

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Row allan Dam Em bankm ent U pgrade

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Conclusions

Establish the context of portfolio management – this is critical

Regulatory environment

External stakeholders

Shareholder demands & risk appetite

Business capacity & priorities Establish goals, objectives & measures

Financial

Risk

Program delivery & performance Review and monitor performance of the above, incl changes Report outcomes, identify areas for improvement and reset targets

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Quest ions

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