Reliability: Managing Emerging Challenges and Risks Michael - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Reliability: Managing Emerging Challenges and Risks

Michael Pohland

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited.

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Reliability Impact on the Department of Defense

• Operations and support costs represent 60% or more of

total weapon life cycle costs

• Reliability drives much of that cost (maintenance and

spares)

• Reliability is a common contributor to the schedule delays

for our biggest weapon system programs

• 10% improvement in reliability for a major defense

program can equate to billions of dollars in savings over the life cycle

• Failure puts soldiers in harms way

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Designing something that won’t break when used is easy….Right?

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• Designing reliability in up-front
• Developing contracts that promote emphasis on Reliability

and Maintainability (RAM) design practices

• Leveraging data and information to the maximum extent

possible

• Establishing solid reliability growth (improvement)

strategies

• Linking maintenance data to product support strategies

Five Areas Essential for Successfully Managing Challenges and Risk

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Designing Reliability in Up-front

Full-system Dynamics Modeling provides tremendous insights that reduce testing and eliminate failures

• Mitigate potential

sources of failure

• Quickly develop

solutions for failures

• Positively impact

design

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Designing Reliability in Up-front

This Circuit Board Fails Due to Vibration This Circuit Board Does Not (just by adding two screws) Initial Design

Electronics in an Army Hand Held Device

Design after Physics-of- Failure Vibrations Analysis Design modification costing almost nothing changes product from being unreliable to reliable Thermal Analysis Provided Additional Insights

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Developing Contracts that Promote Emphasis on RAM Design Practices

 In some cases, we contract for little more than a specification target and ask for a reliability prediction… and maybe a FMEA  Need to incorporate language that provides focus on reliability engineering activities

– Thermal/Vibrations/Shock analyses – HALT – Solid FRACAS linked to design changes

 Contract is the most important document for ensuring that developers have the proper incentives for applying their best reliability and design engineering teams

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 System 14 System 13 System 12 System 11 System 10 System 9 System 8 System 7 System 6 System 5 System 4 System 3 System 2 System 1 Mean Time Between Failure (Hours)

Demonstrated Prediction

• Reliability contract language

developed by AMSAA, OSD, and

• thers
• Scorecards also available to

evaluate reliability risk

Leveraging Data and Information to the Maximum Extent Possible

σf Subsystem Strength

Using Physics-Based- Reliability methodology to determine impacts of weight or mission changes for ground systems  Field data from existing systems combined with engineering modeling

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80 114 175 215 220

CAP1 CAP2 CAP3 CAP4

50 100 150 200 250 300

Idealized Curve Customer Test Initial DT LUT LUT Excursion IOT

$869 M $894 M $1,103 M $1,701 M $2,457 M

Test Time (Hours)

CAP – Corrective Action Period

Reliability Growth and its Impact On Support Costs

Mean Time Between Failure

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Linking Maintenance Data to Product Support Strategies

Engine Idle Analysis Exceedances Fault Analysis Oil Life Analysis Vehicle Health Alerts

Health Usage Parts Reliability Availability

Soldier Level Analysis Fleet Level Analysis

Identify corrective actions Identify systemic issues Improve vehicle readiness & availability Reduce scheduled services Determine cause of incidents Influence RAM and vehicle RESET Inform mission planning Improve vehicle design

Developing business intelligence analytics to inform reliability and readiness decisions