Reliability Perspectives on Clean Power Plan Implications NERC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Reliability Perspectives on Clean Power Plan Implications NERC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 10, 2022 175 likes •508 views

Reliability Perspectives on Clean Power Plan Implications NERC Reliability Assessments John Moura Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis June 22, U.S. Energy Association About NERC: Mission To ensure the reliability of the North

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Reliability Perspectives on Clean Power Plan Implications

NERC Reliability Assessments

John Moura Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis June 22, U.S. Energy Association

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About NERC: Mission

  • Develop and enforce reliability standards
  • Assess current and future reliability
  • Analyze system events and recommend improved practices
  • Encourage active participation by all stakeholders
  • Accountable as ERO to regulators in the United States (FERC) and

Canada (NEB and provincial governments)

To ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system

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NERC Reliability Assessments

  • Reliability

– Resource Adequacy – Operating Reliability

  • Transmission adequacy
  • Demand forecasts
  • Demand-Side Resources
  • Regional coordination
  • Awareness and certainty
  • Key issues - emerging trends
  • Technical challenges
  • Evolving market practices
  • System elements/dynamics
  • Potential legislation/regulation
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NERC Assessment Areas

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  • Retirement/displacement of conventional generation
  • Variable energy resources
  • Rapid penetration of electronically-coupled resources
  • Essential Reliability Services
  • Reduced inertia
  • Frequency Response
  • Voltage Support
  • Ramping and flexibility needs
  • Rapid penetration of new loads
  • System controls and protection coordination
  • Modeling and simulation constraints
  • Increasing interface with distribution-centric resources

System Dynamic Character is Changing

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CPP Overview

  • The final rule extended compliance to

2022 from 2020

  • Increased total reduction from 30% to

32% of 2005 levels

  • Envisions Significant Increase in Renewables and Energy

Efficiency – Clean Energy Incentive Plan

  • Trading is projected by EPA to be a large mitigating factor for

attainment of compliance goals

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Example of Envisioned Glide Slope Example: Arizona

CEIP early reductions 2020-2021 1st Interim Period 2022-2024 2nd Interim Period 2025-2027 3rd Interim Period 2028-2029 1st Compliance Period 2030-2031

Proposed 2030 Goal = 702 lb/MWh

Final 2030 Goal = 1,031 lb/MWh

Source: Salt River Project

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Example of Envisioned Glide Slope Example: Kentucky

CEIP early reductions 2020-2021 1st Interim Period 2022-2024 2nd Interim Period 2025-2027 3rd Interim Period 2028-2029 1st Compliance Period 2030-2031

Proposed 2030 Goal = 1,918 lb/MWh

Final 2030 Goal = 1,286 lb/MWh

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Reliability Provisions

  • States required to demonstrate its

consideration of reliability

  • Mechanism for states to seek a revision to its

plan for unanticipated and significant reliability challenges

  • Reliability safety valve to address unanticipated
  • r other extraordinary circumstances
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NERC CPP Phase II

  • Assessment looking at potential reliability impacts of CPP Final

Rule

  • Developed through collaboration with stakeholders to inform

policy discussions and highlight potential risks to BPS reliability

  • Provides range of resource adequacy evaluations based on

several potential cases using different models

  • Provides framework for more granular studies at the state and

regional level

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  • Formed to advise NERC on assessment scope and goals
  • Representation
  • All NERC Regions
  • ISO\RTOs and Planning Coordinators
  • IPPs and Renewable Energy Producers
  • Trade Organizations
  • Power Marketers
  • Consultants
  • Canadian Representation
  • Sub-group formed to author the recommendations document
  • Work with modelers to develop scenarios and assumptions

Planning Committee Advisory Group

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CPP Phase II Scenarios

  • No CPP

Reference Case

  • Intrastate trading develops, interstate

constrained

Constrained Interstate Trading

  • Full intrastate and interstate trading

Full Trading

  • High penetration of renewables

High Renewables

  • Accelerated retirement of nuclear units

Nuclear retirements

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lllllllllllllll Emissions Reductions by State

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Expected Coal Capacity Decline Coal capacity decline by up to 27 GWs

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Coal Generation (TWh) Declines

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Large Amount of Renewable Integration Tax credits and renewable portfolio standards drive renewables

  • 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Wind Solar

GW Reference Case

CPP Base Case

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Demand Growth Annual energy demand growth is expected to flatten

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National Trading Impacts Coal Retirements and Gas Additions

CCGT Capacity Coal Capacity

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Scenario Cases Compared to Reference Case

CCGT Capacity Coal Capacity

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Planning Planning should already be under way due to the need for new transmission and natural gas pipeline infrastructure

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Need for Transmission

High levels of variable generation will require significant transmission additions and reinforcements.

  • Interconnect variable

energy resources in remote areas

  • Smooth the variable

generation output across a broad geographical region

  • Deliver ramping capability

and ancillary services

  • Construct/site/permit

transmission to deliver power across long distances

Legend Demand Centers High Wind Availability

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  • “Building blocks” of physical capabilities
  • Accentuated by resource changes
  • Not all MWs are equal
  • Some partly covered through ancillary services
  • Inherently provided by

synchronous/conventional generation, but can be synthetically provided by DR, batteries, and inverters

Essential Reliability Services: Fundamentals

Resource Adequacy Essential Reliability Services Reliability

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Frequency Excursion – Interconnection-wide Phenomena

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Proactively Resolve Reliability Concerns

As an electric system approaches a significant penetration in variable resources:

  • Essential reliability services will be strained
  • Technical aspects of the evolving resource mix must be given due

consideration at state, federal, and provincial level

  • Solution sets for maintaining reliability can come from:
  • Market tools and rules
  • New technology integration
  • Standards or requirements
  • Unresolved cost implications can impede solutions from materializing
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  • Address roles and responsibilities of planning agencies and

reliability authorities

  • NERC Planning Coordinators and Transmission Planners
  • Maintain adequate Essential Reliability Services
  • Needed for the reliability operation of the Bulk-Power System
  • Address future characteristics of resources
  • Cycling, availability, environmentally constrained dispatch, etc
  • Early identification of additional infrastructure needs for natural

gas transportation and assurance

  • Identify changes to Reserve Margins needed for supply adequacy

Recommendations and Guidance to State Plan Developers

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  • Emphasize implications of the reliability assurance provisions
  • Lessons learned from other systems that have experienced

significant resource shifts (e.g., Ontario)

  • Address implications of increased distributed resources and

control challenges

  • Discuss potential options for solutions, including technologies

that can support reliability Recommendations and Guidance to State Plan Developers

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2015LTRA #3: Reliability Trends and Emerging Issues

Reliability Finding #3: Operators and planners face uncertainty with increased levels of distributed energy resources and new technologies

Cumulative Solar Installed Capacity in U.S. Since 2010 compared to Total Installed Capacity

  • Distributed energy

resources (DERs) are contributing to changing characteristics and control strategies in grid

  • perations.
  • NERC has established a

task force focused on examination of reliability impacts of large amounts

  • f DER on the BPS.
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The Future is Now Page 28

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Wind & Solar (MW) Load & Net Load (MW)

Load, Net Load, Wind & Solar --- 05/15/2016

Load NetLoad Wind Solar

Wind/Solar displaced approx. 22 500 MW combined cycle resources

On May 15, 2016 the net-load dropped to 11,663 MW, which is four years ahead of the original “duck curve” estimate

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Aliso Canyon: LA Basin Power Supply

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Remaining Uncertainties

  • What will the Federal Plan look like?
  • Mass versus Rate
  • Parallels to previous regulations?
  • Uncertainty with neighboring state plans and available transfers
  • Energy efficiency expectations
  • Timing and location of retirements
  • Robustness of trading
  • Legal impediments
  • Transmission-level impacts
  • Market sensitive information sharing
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  • Profound changes occurring on the BPS—resources and policies
  • Lots of uncertainty in the future
  • nuclear, carbon, natural gas, climate trends, transmission
  • New system behaviors and characteristics require new

measurements for reliability

  • Emerging reliability issues bring new technical (and political)

challenges

  • Must carefully balance costs and benefits
  • Changes occurring irrespective of CPP
  • NERC is well positioned to study, evaluate, and assess the

reliability of the Bulk Power System Closing Remarks

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