range, resolution, and accuracy Phillip C. Chamberlin NASA/GSFC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FISM 2.0: Improved spectral range, resolution, and accuracy

Phillip C. Chamberlin NASA/GSFC

Outline

• FISM Version 1.0
• New in FISM Version 2.0

– Improvements in range, resolution, and accuracy – New data sets, new flare variably

• FISM 2.0 Results

– Daily model – Flare model

• Gradual Phase Modeling
• Impulsive Phase Modeling

FISM 1.0

E(tUTC) Emin ESC(td) ESR(td) EGP(tUTC) EIP(tUTC)

Daily Component Variations (Modeled on a daily basis):

• Solar Cycle (SC) - linear with 108-day smoothed daily proxy
• Solar Rotation (SR) - linear with (daily proxy - SC proxy)

Flare Component Variations (Modeled on a 60 seconds basis):

• Gradual Phase (GP) - Power Law with GOES 0.1-0.8 nm
• Impulsive Phase (IP) - Power Law with d/dt GOES (Neupert Effect)

Emin: Solar minimum reference spectrum, FISMref, (Constant) Center-to-Limb variations accounted for by representative proxies in daily component but must be corrected for in flare components

FISM 1.0

• Released in 2005, the first version of FISM has contributed

to many studies on the influence of solar variations on Earth, Mars, and the Moon. – 1 nm bins, 0.1-190 nm – 5-20% uncertainties for daily model – 20-75% uncertainties for flare model

FISM Available Through LISIRD

FISM 1.0 Data Sets

• FISM 1.0 ‘daily’ is based on Level 3 data from TIMED

SEE (EGS and XPS) as well as UARS SOLSTICE

• FISM 1.0 ‘flare’ uses TIMED SEE (Level 1 and 3A EGS

and Level 3A XPS) for flare data

L3A XPS L1/3A EGS L3 XPS L3 EGS Daily Model: Flare Model: UARS SOLSTICE

FISM 2.0 Data Sets

• FISM 2.0 ‘daily’ will be based on L4 XPS, L3 data from

SDO/EVE/MEGS, and UARS (and SORCE?) SOLSTICE

• FISM 2.0 ‘flare’ uses L4 XPS, L2 SDO/EVE/MEGS, L1 and L3A

TIMED/SEE/EGS – and possibly UARS/SORCE SOLSTICE?

* L3 SDO/EVE/MEGS (0.1nm) Daily Model: Flare Model: UARS/SORCE SOLSTICE * L4 XPS (0.1-6 nm), ESP? ** ** L3 TIMED/SEE * L2 SDO/EVE/MEGS (0.1nm) ?UARS/SORCE SOLSTICE? ** L1/L3 TIMED/SEE/EGS

FISM 2.0 Improvements

• Higher spectral bins at all wavelengths

– 0.1 nm vs 1.0 nm (FISM 2.0 vs 1.0)

• More accurate flare measurements (EUV only)

– 10-15% vs 20-40%

• Number of flare measurements (EUV ONLY)

– 389 vs 39

• Not only the number of flares observed, but at

every 10 seconds throughout the flare

• More available as SDO continues to observe
• Range of flare magnitudes measured

– C5 to X6.9 vs M1 to X28+

FISM 2.0 New Questions

• How to implement delay in flare response due to cooling?
• How to implement coronal dimming?
• How to model flare variations in FUV long-ward of EVE

– Use FISM 1.0? New SOLSTICE Model?

SDO EVE measurements showing EUV emissions

• f various temperatures

peak at different times during solar flares.

FISM 2.0 Daily Results (test)

• FISM daily results based on SDO EVE show promising

first results.

Red: FISM Black: SDO/EVE

Solar Minimum Near Solar Maximum

FISM 2.0 Daily Results (test)

• FISM daily results based on SDO EVE show promising

first results.

Red: FISM Black: SDO/EVE

FISM 2.0 Daily Results

• MEGS-B range is not coming out correctly

– Need to make sure EVE L3 data is correct (as is the case for 30.34 nm data)

• Improve proxy tree?

– Now based on best statistics determine best proxy

• Multiple proxies and weighted fits for each bin?
• Add in XPS and SOLSTICE

– Algorithms only completed so far for SDO/EVE – UARS SOLSTICE already part of FISM V1.0, just need to merge

• Lots of validation still needed

FISM 2.0 Flare Results

• Initial results show some good results
• May still have some large uncertainties due to trying

to generalize/model a wide variety of flares

• First run still just uses the Impulsive Phase (IP) and

Gradual Phase (GP) Peak values, not the entire flare

• Now able to model center-to-limb variation (CLV) for

IP as well as GP (didn’t have enough IP observations prior to EVE).

• Initial results for a generalize flare timing delay look
• k, but hopefully a better way.

FISM 2.0 Flare GP Fits

• Good fits to those wavelengths that have large

variations

11.44 nm Fe XXII 17.11 nm Fe IX

FISM 2.0 GP Peak Delay Time

• Median peak delay time for each wavelength shows

some potentially useful results, but need validation and hopefully another method/proxy

FISM 2.0 Flare IP Fits

• Good fits to those wavelengths that have large

variations – and valid center-to-limb darkening

30.38 He II

FISM 2.0 Flare Results

BLACK: SDO/EVE Light Blue: FISM Daily Green: FISM IP Dark Blue: FISM GP RED: FISM All (Daily+IP+GP)

Conclusions (1)

• Initial modeling of SDO/EVE is going well, but still a

lot of work and validation activities remain. – Find another proxy (XRS A/B temperature) for peak delay – student working on this now. – Coronal dimming?

• Will then add on soft X-rays from XPS Level 4 and

SOLSTICE from 116 nm – ??? – Extend wavelength range to cover FUV hole that will exist after SORCE, at least for daily model (maybe just use another daily model then?)

• Compare V1.0 to V2.0, to other models, as well as to

the various basis data sets, and to I/T modelers.

• Integrate V2.0 to LISIRD for distribution

Conclusions (2)

• Lots of new, planned science using FISM:

– One example will be in poster session from Huang et al. – MAVEN LPW/EUV – Moore et al. paper, in preparation, follow on the Woods et al., 2005 paper on TIM measurements of flares

• Use FISM to model the IP and GP radiated flare

emission in TSI – Emslie et al. paper, submitted, SEE energetics comparison

• f 38 events