Presented by: Len Steiner
Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612
supporting and promoting imported meat
2019 Annual General Meeting & Conference
JW Marriott, Austin, TX
November 4 - 6, 2019
Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2019 Annual General Meeting & Conference JW Marriott, Austin, TX supporting and promoting imported meat November 4 - 6, 2019 Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 Main Discussion Points Today #1:
Presented by: Len Steiner
Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612
supporting and promoting imported meat
2019 Annual General Meeting & Conference
JW Marriott, Austin, TX
November 4 - 6, 2019
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
❖ #1: Economic Situation in US and World ❖ #2: Currency Markets ❖ #3: Feed Input Costs ❖ #4: Cattle Supplies in USA, Canada and Mexico ❖ #5: Demand /Supplies in Other Markets ❖ #6: Special Discussion on African Swine Fever and Impact on
❖ #7: Demand in US Domestic Market ❖ #8: Alternative Protein Supplies ❖ #9: US Lamb Business ❖ #10: Price Forecasts
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2
Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner
India:
Economy has recovered as impact from demonetization has faded.
Canada: Q2 growth accelerated to 2.9% from 1.3% in Q1. Negotiations with USA continue over a revised NAFTA. That remains a key risk USA: US GDP revised higher in Q2 and low unemployment should continue to bolster wages/spending. Mexico: GDP improved to 2.6% in Q2 compared to 1.3% in Q1. Unemployment rate increased to 3.5% but remains below year ago levels Argentina: GDP growth declined a stunning 4.2% in Q2 compared to +3.6% in
index continues to head lower and unemployment is now 9.1% compared to 7% at the end of last year Brazil: Growth estimates have been revised lower following the trucker strike and election uncertainty. Unemployment rate has been trending lower, however. EU Brexit negotiations are approaching some key deadlines and no deal appears imminent. Russia: The Russian economy has recovered from the impact of sanctions and expanded 1.3% in Q1 compared to 0.9% in late 2017. Japan: Q2 growth was higher than expected and surprised the
private investment supported growth China: Exports remain resilient despite trade war with USA but risks are heavily weighted to the
markets are down 20% YTD New Zealand: Q2 growth numbers have yet to be released by expectations are for more robust growth as export pace accelerated
Australia: GDP growth in Q2 was +0.9% compared to +1% in the previous quarter but still much faster than in 2016 and 2017.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner
Canada: Economic growth
stalled at the end of 2018 and in Q1. A sharp correction in exports caused GDP to jump 3.7% in Q2, however, supported in part by normalization of trade relationship with US.
USA: The US economy has
slowed down considerably and recent estimates is for growth in 2019 to be at 2.6%, down from almost 3% expected earlier this year. 2020 growth has been revised down to 2%. Odds of recession for 2020 now at highest point since 2008
Brazil: The economy has
been very cautiously
far has fallen well short
due to the global slowdown but also the inability of current government to implement fiscal reforms.
EU
Germany and UK remain problem spots for the European
demand remains in good shape but a slowdown in exports has negatively impacted overall growth
Russia:
The economy has decelerated significantly in the last two
all of 2018. Lower oil output, low
have negatively impacted growth
Japan:
Growth slowed down in Q2 and it appears Q3 output growth was even weaker, dragged down by weak exports to US, China and
index in September pointed to sector contraction.
China:
Exports to the US were sharply lower in September and GDP growth expected to slow down again. Other indicators, from industrial production to retail trade to fixed asset investment all pointed to a significant deceleration India: Growth has slowed down at a much faster pace than
was up 5% y/y, the slowest pace in six years.
Mexico: Conditions have
deteriorated and Q2 growth was down 0.8% y/y. A slowdown in global demand and fiscal reforms have all contributed to the recent slowdown.
Australia:
While the economy has been affected by the global slowdown, growth remains on track, supported by robust domestic demand and an accommodating monetary policy.
New Zealand: Q2 growth
slowed down from the previous quarter and economy expanded at the slowest pace in over three
global economic activity has negatively impacted NZ
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Slowdown across all regions
Source: Moody's Economy.com
World
Euro Asia Oceania
2015 2.7 2.7
2.0 4.5 2.5 2016 3.1 2.3 0.5 2.5 5.1 2.4 2017 3.2 2.4 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.4 2018 3.0 2.8
1.9 4.7 2.8 2019 Fcst previous 2.5 2.1 0.3 1.3 4.4 2.0 revised 2.5 2.1
1.2 4.2 2.1 2020 Fcst previous 2.8 1.7 2.7 1.7 4.3 2.9 revised 2.8 1.7 2.0 1.3 4.0 2.3 Last update: October 14, 2019
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
World
Euro Asia Oceania
REAL GDP GROWTH %
GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK
2015 2016 2017 2019 Fcst 2020 Fcst
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Positives
markets
markets
Negatives
America any more
* Forecast: Moody’s
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 % ch.
ANNUAL USA GROWTH RATE OF GDP
Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate
fcast
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
month average.
200 400 600 200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
THOUSAND JOBS
NEW JOB CREATION: NON AGRICULTURAL, 000's
Data Updated through September 2019
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
percent
USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %
Sep 2019 3.5% Dec 2020 Forecast 3.8%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Foodservice sales have slowed down but growth remains in line with the long term trend. Grocery store sales are firm.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
GROCERY STORE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.
Latest Data is for September 2019
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.
Latest Data is for September 2019
Source: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Foodservice, US Census Bureau
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.
Latest Data is for September 2019
Same Store Sales - Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2018, Tracking Survey Responses by Industry Segment Source: National Restaurant Association Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Limited Service Quick Casual Higher Sales 43% 56% 14% 62% 50% Lower Sales 50% 39% 43% 23% 25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SAME STORE SALES
Source: US Census Source: National Restaurant Association
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Foodservice inflation reflects higher labor/operational costs
Data updated through: September 2019
Food CPI Comparisons. Jan 2008 = 100
Source: BLS. Analysis by Steiner Consulting
95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Food at Limited Service Restaurants Food away from home Food at Home
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Dollar vs. Currencies of Top Meat Trading Partners
% change in the last 12 months (Oct. 2018 - Oct. 2019)
90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120%
Oct '18 Nov '18 Dec '18 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar '19 Apr '19 May '19 Jun '19 Jul '19 Aug '19 Sep '19 Oct '19
USD/BRL USD/EUR USD/NZD USD/AUD USD/CAD USD/Peso
Positive for US imports Negative for US exports Negative for US imports Positive for US exports
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US $214 cwt
11/28/2012
US $255/cwt
10/26/2019
100 150 200 250 300 350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF)
Prices in US$/cwt
USD/cwt
Pricein USD
Current
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
$375/cwt $255/cwt
100 150 200 250 300 350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF East Coast).
Prices in US$/cwt and AUD/cwt
USD/cwt
Pricein USD and AUD
AUD/cwt
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Lower Yield Sharply lower exports Lower S/U but still comfortable carryout
2017/18 2018/19 USDA Actual USDA Est USDA Sep Est USDA Oct Est vs. 2017/18 . Planted 90.2 89.1 90.0 89.9
Harvested 82.7 81.7 82.0 81.8
Yield per harvested acre 176.6 176.4 168.2 168.4
Beginning stocks 2,293 2,140 2,445 2,114
Production 14,609 14,420 13,799 13,779
Imports 36 28 50 50 38.9% Supply, total 16,939 16,588 16,295 15,944
Feed and residual 5,304 5,618 5,175 5,300
Ethanol for fuel 5,605 5,376 5,450 5,400
Food, seed and residual 1,452 1,415 1,430 1,415
Domestic use, total 12,361 12,409 12,055 12,115
Exports 2,438 2,065 2,050 1,900
Use, total 14,798 14,474 14,105 14,015
Ending stocks 2,140 2,114 2,190
1,929
3.36 3.61 3.60 3.80 13.1% Ending Stocks/Use 14.5% 14.6% 15.5%
13.8%
Source: USDA Monthly WASDE Report.
** Corn crop marketing year starts September 1. % Cha 2019/20
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Corn prices have been stable in the last five years and mostly under $4/bu.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Combined USA Beef, Pork, Broiler and Turkey Production
Million Pounds. Carcass Wt. Basis. USDA Actual + Steiner Forecasts
90,929 105,932
40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000
+16.3%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2017 2018 % CH. 2019 % CH. 2020 % CH. 2021 % CH.
BEEF 26,187 26,872 2.6% 27,342 1.7% 27,446 0.4% 27,235
PORK 25,584 26,315 2.9% 27,653 5.1% 28,478 3.0% 28,912 1.5% BROILERS 41,217 42,146 2.3% 42,964 1.9% 43,594 1.5% 43,939 0.8% TURKEYS 5,905 5,802
5,746
5,772 0.4% 5,846 1.3% LAMB 145 153 5.4% 150
149
153 2.5% VEAL 74 76 2.0% 74
71
73 3.0% TOTAL 99,113 101,365 2.3% 103,929 2.5% 105,510 1.5% 106,159 0.6%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
INVENTORY (000 OMITTED) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % Ch. vs. 2018 2020 Estimate % Ch. vs. 2019 ALL CATTLE AND CALVES 94,081 92,887 91,160 90,095 88,243 89,173 91,888 93,625 94,298 94,760 0.5% 94,919 0.2% COW AND HEIFERS THAT HAVE CALVED 40,526 40,068 39,517 38,853 38,165 38,644 39,476 40,539 40,898 41,119 0.5% 41,004
BEEF COWS 31,440 30,913 30,282 29,631 28,956 29,332 30,164 31,171 31,466 31,766 1.0% 31,714
DAIRY COWS 9,087 9,156 9,236 9,221 9,209 9,312 9,312 9,369 9,432 9,353
9,290
HEIFERS 500LBS. AND OVER 19,778 19,650 19,445 19,256 18,919 19,266 19,902 20,112 20,218 20,230 0.1% 20,220 0.0% BEEF COW REPLACEMENT 5,443 5,135 5,281 5,429 5,556 6,086 6,335 6,363 6,108 5,925
5,850
DAIRY COW REPALCEMENT 4,551 4,577 4,618 4,546 4,539 4,710 4,814 4,754 4,768 4,702
4,650
OTHER HEIFERS 9,784 9,938 9,546 9,281 8,824 8,469 8,753 8,995 9,341 9,604 2.8% 9,720 1.2% STEERS 500 LBS. AND OVER 16,568 16,394 15,957 15,931 15,623 15,630 16,305 16,374 16,528 16,633 0.6% 16,785 0.9% BULLS 500 LBS. AND OVER 2,190 2,165 2,100 2,074 2,038 2,109 2,137 2,244 2,252 2,263 0.5% 2,260
HFRS, STRS AND BULLS UNDER 500 LBS. 15,019 14,610 14,141 13,983 13,498 13,524 14,067 14,356 14,401 14,515 0.8% 14,650 0.9% ANNUAL CALF CROP 35,740 35,357 34,469 33,630 33,522 34,087 35,063 35,758 36,403 36,300
Note: Shaded numbers represent Steiner estimates
JANUARY 1st U. S. CATTLE INVENTORY
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Comparing US Cattle Cycles of the Last +50 Years
Y/Y Change in Cattle Inventories.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14
1958 - 1967 1967 - 1979 1979 - 1990 1990 - 2004 2004 - 2014 2014 - Current # of years from the start of the cycle
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Cattle Inventories were +0.7% in 2018 and Forecast +0.5% in 2019
1958 = 91,176 1975 = 132,028 1990 = 95,816 1996 = 103,548 2004 = 94,403 2007 = 96,573
40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000
TOTAL INVENTORIES, 000 OMITTED
CATTLE INVENTORIES, 000 HEAD, 1920 - 2019 + 2020 Forecast
Jan 1, 2020 94.9 mil head
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
WEEKLY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER. '000 HEAD
Source: USDA-AMS
90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr Avg. 2017 2018 2019
❖
Dairy liquidation forced kills up in March and early April. Slaughter is currently near seasonal highs.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Steer Weights Continue to Drift Lower, Limiting Supply of Beef Coming to Market
650 680 710 740 770 800 830 860 DRESSED WEIGHTS, POUNDS
FI CATTLE AVERAGE DRESSED WEIGHTS: 1990 - 2019
Dressed Carcass Weights. Weekly. USDA
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Productivity (feedlot based) vs. Other Key Producers/Exporters
BEEF KILOGRAM PRODUCED (DRESSED WT.) PER ANIMAL IN THE HERD. ANNUAL
SOURCE: USDA
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
USA Australia Brazil
Uruguay Argentina
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Cattle Prices Have Been Extremely Volatile in Last 3 Years
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Lack of profitability driving liquidation of the beef cow herd in 2018/19
100 200 300 400 500 600
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW-CALF RETURNS
Returns over cash costs (includes pasture rent), Annual, US$/cow
forecast
Source: LMIC
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Female Slaughter Ratio Indicates Expansion Cycle Has Come to an End
0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ratio of Female Slaughter (Heifers + Cows) To Total US Cattle Slaughter
Weekly Data and 52wk Moving Average. Last Reported Week is October 12, 2019
52-wk MA weekly ratio
Liquidation Rebuilding
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2019 cow slaughter for Jan – Aug = 4.211MM head, +2.5% higher than a year ago Forecast for cow slaughter in 2019 = +2.2% Forecast for cow slaughter in 2020 = +0.7% Robust dairy prices could cause slaughter to actually decline y/y in 2020
Ratio of Cow Slaughter vs. January 1 All Cow Inventory
Annual Data. Source: USDA
10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Est
1990 - 2018 Avg.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
BEEF
QUARTERLY SLAUGHTER, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND DISAPPEARANCE
=A x B A B C D E F G =C+D-E+F+G
Year & Quarter Commercial Slaughter Percent Change From Year Ago Average Carcass Weights Percent Change From Year Ago Commercial Meat Production Percent Change From Year Ago Imports Percent Change From Year Ago Exports Percent Change From Year Ago Farm Production Adjustments to Ending Stocks to Balance Total Disappearance Percent Change From Year Ago
(1,000 Head) Lbs. (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.)
2015 1st Qtr. 6,969
813 2.2% 5,665
877 46.9% 524
24 49 6,091 3.7% 2nd Qtr. 7,229
810 2.7% 5,856
989 28.9% 607
8
6,238 0.0% 3rd Qtr. 7,291
832 2.8% 6,068
889 16.3% 542
8 32 6,456 2.3% 4th Qtr. 7,263
841 2.3% 6,109 1.5% 613
595
24 19 6,169
Year 28,752
824 2.5% 23,698
3,368 14.3% 2,267
63 92 24,953 0.9% 2016 1st Qtr. 7,184 3.1% 826 1.7% 5,938 4.8% 792
535 2.2% 25
6,179 1.4% 2nd Qtr. 7,631 5.6% 811 0.1% 6,187 5.7% 831
621 2.4% 8
6,381 2.3% 3rd Qtr. 7,845 7.6% 825
6,472 6.6% 751
660 21.9% 8 73 6,643 2.9% 4th Qtr. 7,919 9.0% 837
6,625 8.4% 638 4.1% 740 24.3% 25 66 6,614 7.2% Year 30,578 6.4% 825 0.1% 25,221 6.4% 3,012
2,557 12.8% 67 74 25,817 3.5% 2017 1st Qtr. 7,714 7.4% 817
6,303 6.2% 700
653 21.9% 26
6,234 0.9% 2nd Qtr. 8,076 5.8% 793
6,407 3.5% 812
680 9.5% 9
6,484 1.6% 3rd Qtr. 8,254 5.2% 816
6,736 4.1% 814 8.4% 746 12.9% 9 107 6,919 4.2% 4th Qtr. 8,145 2.9% 828
6,742 1.8% 668 4.7% 781 5.5% 26
6,643 0.4% Year 32,189 5.3% 814
26,187 3.8% 2,993
2,859 11.8% 68
26,281 1.8% 2018 1st Qtr. 7,878 2.1% 821 0.5% 6,466 2.6% 721 3.1% 731 12.0% 26
6,451 3.5% 2nd Qtr. 8,426 4.3% 798 0.6% 6,726 5.0% 805
801 17.8% 9
6,717 3.6% 3rd Qtr. 8,361 1.3% 816
6,819 1.2% 807
828 11.0% 9 85 6,892
4th Qtr. 8,341 2.4% 823
6,862 1.8% 664
800 2.5% 26 110 6,861 3.3% Year 33,005 2.5% 814 0.1% 26,872 2.6% 2,998 0.2% 3,161 10.5% 70 141 26,921 2.4% 2019 1st Qtr. 7,934 0.7% 808
6,414
738 2.4% 696
27
6,458 0.1% 2nd Qtr. 8,573 1.7% 795
6,814 1.3% 836 3.9% 790
9
6,835 1.8% * 3rd Qtr. 8,545 2.2% 815
6,964 2.1% 780
830 0.2% 9 160 7,083 2.8% * 4th Qtr. 8,357 0.2% 825 0.3% 6,895 0.5% 645
820 2.4% 27 20 6,766
* Year 33,410 1.2% 811
27,087 0.8% 3,000 0.1% 3,136
71 95 27,117 0.7% 2020 * 1st Qtr. 7,980 0.6% 815 0.8% 6,503 1.4% 710
750 7.8% 27
6,450
* 2nd Qtr. 8,547
800 0.7% 6,838 0.4% 760
825 4.5% 9
6,732
* 3rd Qtr. 8,570 0.3% 821 0.7% 7,036 1.0% 745
895 7.8% 9 50 6,945
* 4th Qtr. 8,282
829 0.5% 6,866
610
885 7.9% 27
6,607
* Year 33,380
816 0.7% 27,244 0.6% 2,825
3,355 7.0% 71 10 26,795
2021 * 1st Qtr. 7,839
820 0.6% 6,428
710 0.0% 770 2.7% 27
6,320
* 2nd Qtr. 8,419
805 0.6% 6,777
770 1.3% 845 2.4% 9
6,661
* 3rd Qtr. 8,468
826 0.6% 6,994
790 6.0% 910 1.7% 9 50 6,933
* 4th Qtr. 8,112
835 0.7% 6,773
620 1.6% 890 0.6% 27
6,520
* Year 32,838
822 0.6% 26,973
2,890 2.3% 3,415 1.8% 71
26,494
* Estimates
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Cattle Population Human Population Cattle/ Person Cattle Slaughter Cattle Sltr./ Cattle Inv. Beef Production
Cattle Sltr. Beef Exports Beef Exports / Beef Prod.
000 head
000 head MT, CWE KG, CWE
USA 94,760 331 0.29 34,018 0.36 12,289 361 1,418 12% CANADA 11,440 37 0.31 3,675 0.32 1,330 362 570 43% MEXICO 16,699 126 0.13 6,250 0.37 2,030 325 355 17% AUSTRALIA 25,734 26 1.01 8,500 0.33 2,300 271 1,657 72%
10,107 5 2.00 4,375 0.43 686 157 650 95% BRAZIL 238,158 211 1.13 40,575 0.17 10,210 252 2,250 22% URUGUAY 11,396 4 3.24 2,255 0.20 568 252 470 83% ARGENTINA 53,805 45 1.19 13,500 0.25 3,040 225 700 23% INDIA 306,700 1352 0.23 38,800 0.13 4,287 110 1,600 37%
Data source: USDA
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
January Inventory trends in Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay & Brazil
NEW ZEALAND CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 headAUSTRALIA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
000 headURUGUAY CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
000 headBRAZIL CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 51,545 52,565 53,515 53,715 53,805 54,085 54,185 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 55,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021FARGENTINA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16,615 16,490 16,584 16,699 16,900 17,150 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021FMEXICO CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Key Markets for Australian Beef: 2012 - 2019
Metric Ton. Shipped Weight Basis
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
China USA ROW Japan
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Share of New Zealand Beef Exports to USA and China Share of New Zealand Beef Exports During Jan-Sep 2019
Data Source: Stats NZ. Analysis by Steiner Consulting
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
USA 30% China 46%
Japan 4%
2% Canada 3% ROW 15%
metricton s.w.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China breeding herd by end of the
year could be down 50% from 2017.
China’s pork production next year
could be down as much as 40% from 2017 levels.
This would represent a shortfall of
21.8 million MT. (48.1 billion lb.)
It would represent a decline of 7%
in global meat supplies of the three main animal proteins.
2017 Meat Protein Supply for Top Global Meat Markets
Source: USDA-FAS & Steiner Consulting
Pork Row 19% Pork China 18%
Chicken 32% Beef (incl. buffalo) 20%
Other 11%
metric ton Pork 37.5%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Meat Protein Consumption. Kilogram per Person
Source: OECD Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Combined Beef Pork Poultry Sheep South America Argentina 39.6 10.6 40.0 1.2 91.4 43% 12% 44% 1% Brazil 25.9 11.4 37.4 0.5 75.2 34% 15% 50% 1% Colombia 11.5 7.1 28.6 0.2 47.4 24% 15% 60% 0% EU-28 10.9 32.1 24.2 1.8 69.0 16% 47% 35% 3% Asia Japan 7.2 15.5 16.9 0.1 39.7 18% 39% 43% 0%
10.3 29.8 17.2 0.3 57.5 18% 52% 30% 0% Malaysia 4.8 6.0 46.5 1.0 58.3 8% 10% 80% 2% China 3.9 30.3 11.9 3.1 49.2 8% 62% 24% 6% Oceania Australia 21.1 21.3 44.0 8.6 94.9 22% 22% 46% 9%
12.9 17.7 37.0 4.5 72.2 18% 25% 51% 6% North America USA 25.9 23.1 48.9 0.4 98.4 26% 23% 50% 0% Canada 17.3 16.5 35.1 0.9 69.9 25% 24% 50% 1% Mexico 8.8 12.3 27.7 0.5 49.3 18% 25% 56% 1% Middle East/India India 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.5 3.3 15% 6% 64% 14%
3.5 0.2 39.7 5.1 48.5 7% 0% 82% 10% Egypt 8.8 0.0 11.4 1.2 21.3 41% 0% 53% 5%
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Deadly to hogs Highly contagious Various transmission vectors No cure and no vaccine Not dangerous to humans
This is a very hardy virus. It can live for a long time in the freezer. It is only killed with heat at high temperatures for long periods of time. It can be easily transmitted from animal to animal. It can be passed to hogs by feeding scraps, by coming in contact with wild boards, by feeding them infected feed or through employees bringing the disease into farms via trucks, boots, etc.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2007 Spread to Georgia, Russia 2010 – 2018 Eastern Europe 2018 – Current Southeast Asia
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Pork Consumption in Selected Countries and Rest of the World (ROW)
Source: USDA-FAS. Billion Pounds. Carcass Weight Equivalent.
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
China EU USA Russia Brazil Vietnam Japan Mexico
ROW
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Russia Pork Production + Imports
000 MT. Source: USDA-FAS. Analysis by Steiner Consulting
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lesson from Russian producers:
Source: Miratorg quoted in South China Morning Post
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China Sow Inventory M/M % Change
Source: Ministry of Agriculture of China
0.00% 2.00% 2017 2018 2019
China Live Hog Inventory M/M % Change
Source: Ministry of Agriculture of China
0.00% 2.00% 2017 2018 2019
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
▪ Piglet:
▪ Hog:
▪ Retail Pork: +112%
as of Oct 23, 2019
China Price of Baby Pigs, Live Hogs and Retail Pork, Yuan per KG.
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Piglet Price Live Hog Price Pork Price
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Per Capita Pork Consumption in China. Assumption: Production down 40% vs. 2017. Imports up 150%.
Source: USDA-FAS. Converted to Pounds per Person. Carcass Weight Equivalent.
25 77 72 95 88 77 57 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1980 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Blue Ear Disease (PRRS) African Swine Fever
???
lb./pp (carcass wt. basis)
35% decline How much of this will be replaced by pork imports and other meat proteins, including chicken
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Sep: +72% YTD: +44% Sep: +52% YTD: +33%
China Beef Imports in Jan - Sep 2019. Metric Ton.
Source: China Customs Import Partners 9/1/2018 9/1/2019 Y/Y MT Y/Y % Jan - Sep 2018 Jan - Sep 2019 Y/Y MT Y/Y % Brazil 31,652 36,294 4,642 15% 221,566 200,624 (20,942)
Uruguay 19,096 23,747 4,650 24% 160,701 193,148 32,448 20% Argentina 20,969 35,445 14,477 69% 119,053 217,778 98,725 83% Australia 15,657 33,451 17,794 114% 126,719 181,051 54,333 43% New Zealand 9,198 16,059 6,861 75% 87,821 149,011 61,190 70% Canada 649
4,650 9,948 5,298 114% South Africa 769
4,058 1,872 (2,186)
Costa Rica 517 832 315 61% 3,667 6,525 2,858 78% United States 471 1,045 573 122% 5,194 5,284 90 2% Other 773 4,466 3,694 478% 4,612 14,456 9,844 213% Total 99,752 151,339 51,588 52% 738,040 979,698 241,658 33%
China Pork Import Update: Latest Data is for September 2019
Source: China Customs Statistics. Data is in Metric Ton, Product Wt. 9/1/2018 9/1/2019 Jan-Sep 2018 Jan-Sep 2019 European Union 59,828 100,974 41,146 69% 572,991 810,437 237,446 41% Spain 19,366 31,459 12,093 62% 173,425 247,070 73,645 42% Germany 16,579 26,720 10,140 61% 173,702 221,539 47,837 28% Netherlands 6,957 12,768 5,812 84% 62,755 98,610 35,855 57% Denmark 5,328 9,826 4,498 84% 55,887 88,728 32,842 59% France 3,675 8,539 4,864 132% 36,476 56,337 19,861 54% United Kingdom 4,300 6,502 2,201 51% 35,236 52,553 17,317 49% Ireland 3,057 4,051 994 33% 24,803 36,765 11,962 48% Austria 71 1,060 989 71 7,513 7,443 Portugal
51
1,321 Belgium 494
3,628
Hungary
Romania
1
5
Lithuania
Estonia
15,554 22,438 6,884 44% 108,423 143,984 35,560 33% Canada 10,749 2,896 (7,853)
124,153 171,565 47,412 38% United States 3,623 26,248 22,625 625% 80,466 139,428 58,962 73% Chile 4,243 7,773 3,530 83% 34,239 50,904 16,665 49% Finland 251 249 (2)
1,381 2,967 1,586 115% Mexico 70 1,258 1,188 1698% 1,398 6,417 5,019 359% New Zealand
94,317 161,836 67,519 72% 923,053 1,325,701 402,649 44%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
EU hog price: $90/cwt
+12% tariff: $108/cwt
USA hog price:
$58/cwt +62% tariff: $94/cwt *** addl. 10% tariff was suspended
Hog Carcass Prices in USA and EU
Source: USDA and European Comission. Prices Converted to USD/cwt.
58.5 88.2 95.0 90.5 89.8 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2018 2019
USA France Germany Spain Denmark
As of 10/18
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Shortfall in China pork production vs. Global Supply
Source: USDA-FAS 2017 Pork Production & Steiner Calculations 5 10 15 20 25 30
China Shortfall USA Production EU Production ROW
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Change in China Production of Pork, Chicken and Beef
Source: USDA-FAS and Steiner Consulting
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
2017 2020 Pork Chicken Beef
21.8 MM reduction in pork supply
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
USA Consumption of Red Meat & Poultry. Lb./PP China Consumption of Red Meat, Poultry and Fish. Lb./PP
Source: OECD Dataset for 2017. Red Meat Data in CWE. Poultry in RTC. Source: OECD Dataset for 2017. Red Meat Data in CWE. Poultry in RTC.
Beef 57 26% Pork 51 24% Poultry 108 50% Sheep Meat, 1, 0%
pounds per person
Beef 9 8% Pork 67 62% Poultry 26 24% Sheep Meat 7 6%
pounds per person
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China now accounts for:
exports
exports
(incl. HK)
exports
exports
China Annual Beef Imports: 2000 - 2020
Source: USDA-FAS, Actual + Estimates
1,467 2,400 2,900
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China Annual Pork Imports: 2000 - 2020
Source: USDA-FAS, Actual + Estimates
1,561 2,600 3,500
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 '000 MT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China Annual Chicken Imports: 2000 - 2020
Source: USDA-FAS, Actual + Estimates
342 625 750
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 '000 MT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China Share of Global Exports of Beef, Pork and Chicken China Share of Global Exports of Beef, Pork and Chicken
Source: USDA-FAS Source: USDA-FAS
7% 14% 3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Beef Pork Chicken
2015
25% 34% 6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Beef Pork Chicken
2020
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Recently the Chinese government has pushed for more domestic pork production
Also, the current high price for hogs in China has given an economic incentive for people to enter the pork business. However, past government programs, which failed to pay famers for hogs that died from ASF gives many pause because of risks.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
A female pig becomes sexually active at about 190 – 230 days The gestation period for hogs is about 114 days. In the US, the growout
time from birth is about 182 days.
So for a female pig born today and added to the breeding herd, the pigs
from her first litter will go to market in about 526 days. In China grow out time varies much more than in the US and on average it is longer than 182 days. So if the push for more production in China started hard in August 2019, the effect would not be expected to show up in the market until January 2021, at the earliest.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China will be critically short of their preferred animal protein in 2020 There is not enough tradeable pork in the world for China to realistically
supplement 100% of the shortfall.
The question will be:
Do the Chinese do without? Do the Chinese increase imports of pork as much as they can ???? Do the Chinese change their diet to replace pork with other animal proteins and is so which one?
Certainly it appears the Chinese second preference for animal protein is poultry
and the Chinese poultry mix is probably 90% chicken and 10% duck.
World protein production of chicken, pork and beef in major countries in 2020
will be 7% below pre-ASF levels and because of biological constraints this shortfall is largely a fixed number.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
All-Transactions House Price Index
Index 1980: Q1 = 100. Quarterly. Not Seasonally Adjusted 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450 470 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
S&P 500 Index
Data updated through: October 10, 2019
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
55
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
p e r c e n t
USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %
Sep 2019 3.5% Dec 2020 Forecast 3.8%
95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.0 102.0 103.0 104.0
180 360 540 720 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
NRA Restaurant Performance Index vs. Monthly Job Gains/Losses
Rest. index Job Gains
monthlyjob gains/losses (L) restaurant index (R)
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45721
30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 '16 '17 '18 '19
Real Per Capita Disposable Income, US$
Latest data is for: August 2019 recession
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR
TOTAL BEEF, PORK, POULTRY PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass Wt. Basis)
2019 2020 2021
Forecast
270.4 273.2 269.9
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR
BEEF PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass wt. Basis)
2018 2019 2020
Forecast
82.3 80.8 79.3
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR
LAMB, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (Carcass wt. Basis)
1.18 1.18 1.18
2019 2020 2021
Forecast
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239.71 87.01
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Pork Situation and Outlook
Supplies lies ( Y Y/Y Y % chan ange) e)
Producti uction: n: +5.1% in 2019 +3.0% in 2020 +1.5% in 2021 Exports ts: +8.9% in 2019 +16.2% in 2020 +3.4% in 2021 Per Capita: +2.6% in 2019
+0.7% in 2021
22,843 26,315 27,653 28,478 28,912
15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000
2008 2009 20102011201220132014 2015 20162017201820192020 2021
PORK PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS
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Ratio of Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout
Beef Price Continues to Gain on Pork
Ratio of Weekly Choice Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout Value
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.50 2.00
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio
Ratio: 78CL Meat Block / 1/4" Pork Loins, USDA Wt Avg
52wk Mo. Avg. 2009-10 Avg = 1.22
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60 110 160 210 260 310
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
LONG TERM PRICE CHART: 1990 -2019
$/cwt
Price History and Forecast for B/S Chicken Breast Price. USDA-AMS. $/cwt
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Broiler Situation and Outlook
42,964 43,59443,939
30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000
20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
MILLION POUNDS
BROILER PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS
Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group
Supplies lies ( Y Y/Y Y % chan ange) e)
Producti uction: n: +1.9% in 2019 +1.5% in 2020 +0.8% in 2021 Exports ts: +2.4% in 2019 +6.4% in 2020 +2.2% in 2021 Per Capita: +1.2% in 2019 +0.2% in 2020 +0.1% in 2021
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Ground Beef vs. Chicken Breasts
Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group
78CL Meat Block = 70% 90CL Boneless Beef, Central, Fresh, USDA, Wt. Avg. + 30% 50CL Beef Trim, Fresh, National, USDA, Wt. Avg. Chicken Breast = USDA N.E. Broiler Breast Boneless, Skinless, Wt. Avg.
1.68
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio
Ratio: 78CL Meat Block (Using Dom 90LC and 50CL) / Bnls Skinless Chicken Breast
52wk Mo. Avg.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
55,063 57,403 59,717 59,892
50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 58,000 60,000 62,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
LAYERS ON 1ST OF MONTH: BROILER TYPE HATCHING
'000
2017 2018 2016 5-Yr. Avg.
Source: USDA/NASS Chicken and Eggs Monthly Report
2019
US WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS
Source: USDA Broiler Hatchery Report 185,000 195,000 205,000 215,000 225,000 235,000 245,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5 Yr. Avg (2012-16) 2018 2019
1000 eggs
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US Lamb Inventories Remain Flat
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
US LAMB INVENTORY
mil head
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Weekly USA Lamb & Sheep Slaughter
'000 Head/Week. Source: USDA. Compiled and Analysis by Steiner Consulting
26.0 31.0 36.0 41.0 46.0 51.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr 2018 2019
Weekly USA Lamb Dressed Weights
'000 Head/Week. Source: USDA. Compiled and Analysis by Steiner Consulting
59.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 75.0 77.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr 2018 2019
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD Basis
Monthly Average Prices, 90-115 lb., $ per 100 lb.
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr. Avg. 2018 2019
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Australian Lamb Racks, Fresh, Cap-off, 28 oz/up. 4-WK Moving Avg.
Weekly Prices. Source: USDA 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2018 2017 2016
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Lamb Imports Share Continues to Expand. 2019 Share @63.4%
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Domestic Lamb Production + Imports
mil lb.
US domestic production Imports
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World Total
Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 5-Yr Avg 2017 2018 2019
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Close on Oct 25, 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
LIVE STEERS FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 137.69 136.57 127.90 125.68 131.96 2018 HISTORY 125.42 116.36 110.11 114.41 116.57 2019 HISTORY 109.75 125.33 119.99 108.26 2019 FORECAST 114.76 117.08 % CHANGE FROM 2017
3.1%
0.3% 0.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2020 FORECAST 125.67 124.00 120.67 126.67 124.25 % CHANGE FROM 2018 0.3% 3.3% 11.5% 10.4% 6.1% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
0.8%
90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 233.80 240.87 245.38 221.50 235.38 2018 HISTORY 215.22 219.22 209.84 192.20 209.12 2019 HISTORY 219.93 209.65 221.77 223.06 2019 FORECAST 227.57 220.51 % CHANGE FROM 2018
1.2% 6.3% 18.4% 5.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2.7%
2020 FORECAST 246.33 251.33 255.00 243.33 249.00 % CHANGE FROM 2019 17.5% 13.3% 14.3% 6.9% 12.9% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 5.4% 4.3% 3.9% 9.9% 5.8%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Close on Oct 25, 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 89.89 102.19 77.82 62.79 83.17 2018 HISTORY 82.38 82.29 67.32 59.22 72.80 2019 HISTORY 65.17 68.14 88.29 82.53 2019 FORECAST 63.38 75.58 % CHANGE FROM 2018
7.3% 22.6% 7.0% 3.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
6.0% 1.0%
2020 FORECAST 90.33 101.67 80.00 71.00 85.75 % CHANGE FROM 2019 32.6% 15.2%
12.0% 13.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 0.5%
2.8% 13.1% 3.1% 7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 217.86 219.19 231.47 219.91 222.11 2018 HISTORY 217.42 209.69 200.61 183.61 202.83 2019 HISTORY 254.50 213.02 226.93 228.89 2019 FORECAST 256.45 231.32 % CHANGE FROM 2018
8.2% 14.1% 39.7% 14.0% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
3.5%
16.6% 4.1% 2020 FORECAST 263.67 271.33 274.00 262.67 267.92 % CHANGE FROM 2019 23.8% 19.6% 19.7% 2.4% 15.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 21.0% 23.8% 18.4% 19.4% 20.6%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Close on Oct 25, 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
CME 1-DAY Cash Hog Index 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 72.88 81.62 80.54 66.41 75.36 2018 HISTORY 69.09 67.80 62.66 60.66 65.05 2019 HISTORY 65.49 57.06 80.94 70.69 2019 FORECAST 66.53 68.81 % CHANGE FROM 2018
19.4% 12.8% 9.7% 5.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
0.2%
2020 FORECAST 77.33 89.67 87.33 79.33 83.42 % CHANGE FROM 2019 35.5% 10.8% 23.5% 19.3% 21.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 6.1% 9.9% 8.4% 19.5% 10.7% NEW YORK BROILER WEIGHTED AVERAGE, WTD AVG, USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 93.12 105.69 93.15 86.35 94.58 2018 HISTORY 94.16 114.42 97.52 88.25 98.59 2019 HISTORY 78.46 95.54 96.46 82.82 2019 FORECAST 80.30 88.78 % CHANGE FROM 2018 1.5%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 2.6%
2020 FORECAST 91.33 105.67 93.00 87.67 94.42 % CHANGE FROM 2019
9.5% 12.3% 9.2% 6.3% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
0.0%
1.5%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Close on Oct 25, 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
USDA, Carcass Pork Cutout, FOB Plant 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 82.07 88.56 90.11 80.54 85.32 2018 HISTORY 77.45 74.83 75.00 73.50 75.19 2019 HISTORY 76.15 67.98 83.30 77.34 2019 FORECAST 80.81 77.36 % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
11.3% 3.1% 9.9% 2.9% 2020 FORECAST
0.3%
% CHANGE FROM 2019 87.00 97.33 95.00 96.67 94.00 % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 28.0% 16.8% 22.8% 19.6% 21.5% 2021 FORECAST 6.0% 9.9% 5.4% 20.0% 10.2% CME 1-DAY Cash Hog Index 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 72.88 81.62 80.54 66.41 75.36 2018 HISTORY 69.09 67.80 62.66 60.66 65.05 2019 HISTORY 65.49 57.06 80.94 70.69 2019 FORECAST 66.53 68.81 % CHANGE FROM 2017
19.4% 12.8% 9.7% 5.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
0.2%
2020 FORECAST 77.33 89.67 87.33 79.33 83.42 % CHANGE FROM 2018 35.5% 10.8% 23.5% 19.3% 21.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 6.1% 9.9% 8.4% 19.5% 10.7%
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Close on Oct 25, 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
USDA HEN TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 8-16LBS, WTD. AVG. 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 98.98 102.93 108.17 105.99 104.01 2018 HISTORY 79.20 80.07 82.88 81.17 80.83 2019 HISTORY 96.00 83.23 86.12 91.52 2019 FORECAST 100.32 90.30 % CHANGE FROM 2018 5.1% 7.6% 10.4% 23.6% 11.7% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2020 FORECAST 94.00 94.00 97.00 102.33 96.83 % CHANGE FROM 2019 12.9% 9.2% 6.0% 2.0% 7.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
USDA TOM TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 16-24LBS, WTD. AVG. 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 99.27 103.87 107.40 105.58 104.03 2018 HISTORY 81.69 78.46 81.60 79.61 80.34 2019 HISTORY 96.00 82.63 84.55 90.49 2019 FORECAST 97.33 88.75 % CHANGE FROM 2018 1.1% 7.8% 10.9% 22.3% 10.5% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2020 FORECAST 93.00 93.00 96.00 101.33 95.83 % CHANGE FROM 2019 12.6% 10.0% 6.1% 4.1% 8.0% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER
5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
170.00 190.00 210.00 230.00 250.00 270.00 290.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
160.00 180.00 200.00 220.00 240.00 260.00 280.00 300.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET
5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
DOMESTIC 90CL FRESH, FOB CENTRAL US MINUS 90CL IMPORTED, FROZEN, FOB US EAST COAST
5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST
US$/CWT