Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2019 Annual General Meeting & Conference JW Marriott, Austin, TX supporting and promoting imported meat November 4 - 6, 2019 Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 Main Discussion Points Today #1:


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SLIDE 1

 

Presented by: Len Steiner

Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612

supporting and promoting imported meat

2019 Annual General Meeting & Conference

JW Marriott, Austin, TX

November 4 - 6, 2019

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SLIDE 2

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Main Discussion Points Today

❖ #1: Economic Situation in US and World ❖ #2: Currency Markets ❖ #3: Feed Input Costs ❖ #4: Cattle Supplies in USA, Canada and Mexico ❖ #5: Demand /Supplies in Other Markets ❖ #6: Special Discussion on African Swine Fever and Impact on

Protein Markets

❖ #7: Demand in US Domestic Market ❖ #8: Alternative Protein Supplies ❖ #9: US Lamb Business ❖ #10: Price Forecasts

  • 1 -
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Global Situation – Last Year

2

Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner

India:

Economy has recovered as impact from demonetization has faded.

Canada: Q2 growth accelerated to 2.9% from 1.3% in Q1. Negotiations with USA continue over a revised NAFTA. That remains a key risk USA: US GDP revised higher in Q2 and low unemployment should continue to bolster wages/spending. Mexico: GDP improved to 2.6% in Q2 compared to 1.3% in Q1. Unemployment rate increased to 3.5% but remains below year ago levels Argentina: GDP growth declined a stunning 4.2% in Q2 compared to +3.6% in

  • Q1. The economic activity

index continues to head lower and unemployment is now 9.1% compared to 7% at the end of last year Brazil: Growth estimates have been revised lower following the trucker strike and election uncertainty. Unemployment rate has been trending lower, however. EU Brexit negotiations are approaching some key deadlines and no deal appears imminent. Russia: The Russian economy has recovered from the impact of sanctions and expanded 1.3% in Q1 compared to 0.9% in late 2017. Japan: Q2 growth was higher than expected and surprised the

  • market. Robust

private investment supported growth China: Exports remain resilient despite trade war with USA but risks are heavily weighted to the

  • downside. Equity

markets are down 20% YTD New Zealand: Q2 growth numbers have yet to be released by expectations are for more robust growth as export pace accelerated

Australia: GDP growth in Q2 was +0.9% compared to +1% in the previous quarter but still much faster than in 2016 and 2017.

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Global Situation – Current

  • 3 -

Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner

Canada: Economic growth

stalled at the end of 2018 and in Q1. A sharp correction in exports caused GDP to jump 3.7% in Q2, however, supported in part by normalization of trade relationship with US.

USA: The US economy has

slowed down considerably and recent estimates is for growth in 2019 to be at 2.6%, down from almost 3% expected earlier this year. 2020 growth has been revised down to 2%. Odds of recession for 2020 now at highest point since 2008

Brazil: The economy has

been very cautiously

  • expanding. Growth so

far has fallen well short

  • f expectations, in part

due to the global slowdown but also the inability of current government to implement fiscal reforms.

EU

Germany and UK remain problem spots for the European

  • Union. Consumer

demand remains in good shape but a slowdown in exports has negatively impacted overall growth

Russia:

The economy has decelerated significantly in the last two

  • quarters. Q2 growth was up
  • nly 0.7% compared to 2.3% for

all of 2018. Lower oil output, low

  • il prices and weak gas demand

have negatively impacted growth

Japan:

Growth slowed down in Q2 and it appears Q3 output growth was even weaker, dragged down by weak exports to US, China and

  • EU. PMI manufacturing

index in September pointed to sector contraction.

China:

Exports to the US were sharply lower in September and GDP growth expected to slow down again. Other indicators, from industrial production to retail trade to fixed asset investment all pointed to a significant deceleration India: Growth has slowed down at a much faster pace than

  • expected. Q2 GDP

was up 5% y/y, the slowest pace in six years.

Mexico: Conditions have

deteriorated and Q2 growth was down 0.8% y/y. A slowdown in global demand and fiscal reforms have all contributed to the recent slowdown.

Australia:

While the economy has been affected by the global slowdown, growth remains on track, supported by robust domestic demand and an accommodating monetary policy.

New Zealand: Q2 growth

slowed down from the previous quarter and economy expanded at the slowest pace in over three

  • years. A broad slowdown in

global economic activity has negatively impacted NZ

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Slowdown across all regions

  • 4 -

Source: Moody's Economy.com

World

  • N. Am.
  • S. Am.

Euro Asia Oceania

2015 2.7 2.7

  • 1.9

2.0 4.5 2.5 2016 3.1 2.3 0.5 2.5 5.1 2.4 2017 3.2 2.4 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.4 2018 3.0 2.8

  • 0.1

1.9 4.7 2.8 2019 Fcst previous 2.5 2.1 0.3 1.3 4.4 2.0 revised 2.5 2.1

  • 0.1

1.2 4.2 2.1 2020 Fcst previous 2.8 1.7 2.7 1.7 4.3 2.9 revised 2.8 1.7 2.0 1.3 4.0 2.3 Last update: October 14, 2019

  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

World

  • N. Am.
  • S. Am.

Euro Asia Oceania

REAL GDP GROWTH %

GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK

2015 2016 2017 2019 Fcst 2020 Fcst

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Growth but more risks in the horizon

Positives

  • Dovish central banks
  • Low unemployment in key

markets

  • Low unemployment in key

markets

Negatives

  • US-China trade wars weighing
  • n demand
  • Conflicts in the Middle East
  • Brexit
  • Populism…it’s not just South

America any more

  • 5 -

* Forecast: Moody’s

  • 10.00
  • 8.00
  • 6.00
  • 4.00
  • 2.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 % ch.

ANNUAL USA GROWTH RATE OF GDP

Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate

fcast

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

US job growth is positive…but pace of growth has slowed

  • 6 -
  • Payrolls in September were up 136k, the lowest rate in four months and below the 12

month average.

  • Tight job market remains a challenge for the economy at this stage.
  • 1000
  • 800
  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

THOUSAND JOBS

NEW JOB CREATION: NON AGRICULTURAL, 000's

Data Updated through September 2019

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

percent

USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %

Sep 2019 3.5% Dec 2020 Forecast 3.8%

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Foodservice sales have been slowing down but still strong

Foodservice sales have slowed down but growth remains in line with the long term trend. Grocery store sales are firm.

  • 7 -
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

GROCERY STORE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.

Latest Data is for September 2019

  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.

Latest Data is for September 2019

Source: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Foodservice, US Census Bureau

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Fast Food Continues to Outperform Other Sectors

  • 8 -
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.

Latest Data is for September 2019

Same Store Sales - Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2018, Tracking Survey Responses by Industry Segment Source: National Restaurant Association Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Limited Service Quick Casual Higher Sales 43% 56% 14% 62% 50% Lower Sales 50% 39% 43% 23% 25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SAME STORE SALES

Source: US Census Source: National Restaurant Association

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Foodservice inflation reflects higher labor/operational costs

  • 9 -

Data updated through: September 2019

Food CPI Comparisons. Jan 2008 = 100

Source: BLS. Analysis by Steiner Consulting

95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Food at Limited Service Restaurants Food away from home Food at Home

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# 2 Currency Markets

Performance of US$ vs. Imported Beef Currencies in last 12 months

  • 10 -

US Dollar vs. Currencies of Top Meat Trading Partners

% change in the last 12 months (Oct. 2018 - Oct. 2019)

90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120%

Oct '18 Nov '18 Dec '18 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar '19 Apr '19 May '19 Jun '19 Jul '19 Aug '19 Sep '19 Oct '19

USD/BRL USD/EUR USD/NZD USD/AUD USD/CAD USD/Peso

Positive for US imports Negative for US exports Negative for US imports Positive for US exports

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# 2 Currency Markets

Price of Imported 90CL Beef in US$ Trending Higher

  • 11 -

US $214 cwt

11/28/2012

US $255/cwt

10/26/2019

100 150 200 250 300 350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF)

Prices in US$/cwt

USD/cwt

Pricein USD

Current

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# 2 Currency Markets

Price of Imported 90CL Beef in US$ Terms & AUD Terms

  • 12 -

$375/cwt $255/cwt

100 150 200 250 300 350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF East Coast).

Prices in US$/cwt and AUD/cwt

USD/cwt

Pricein USD and AUD

AUD/cwt

+55% gain from currency shift

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

Corn supply did not decline as much as first feared

  • 13 -

Lower Yield Sharply lower exports Lower S/U but still comfortable carryout

2017/18 2018/19 USDA Actual USDA Est USDA Sep Est USDA Oct Est vs. 2017/18 . Planted 90.2 89.1 90.0 89.9

  • 0.3%

Harvested 82.7 81.7 82.0 81.8

  • 1.1%

Yield per harvested acre 176.6 176.4 168.2 168.4

  • 4.6%

Beginning stocks 2,293 2,140 2,445 2,114

  • 7.8%

Production 14,609 14,420 13,799 13,779

  • 5.7%

Imports 36 28 50 50 38.9% Supply, total 16,939 16,588 16,295 15,944

  • 5.9%

Feed and residual 5,304 5,618 5,175 5,300

  • 0.1%

Ethanol for fuel 5,605 5,376 5,450 5,400

  • 3.7%

Food, seed and residual 1,452 1,415 1,430 1,415

  • 2.5%

Domestic use, total 12,361 12,409 12,055 12,115

  • 2.0%

Exports 2,438 2,065 2,050 1,900

  • 22.1%

Use, total 14,798 14,474 14,105 14,015

  • 5.3%

Ending stocks 2,140 2,114 2,190

1,929

  • 9.9%
  • Avg. farm price ($/bu)

3.36 3.61 3.60 3.80 13.1% Ending Stocks/Use 14.5% 14.6% 15.5%

13.8%

Source: USDA Monthly WASDE Report.

** Corn crop marketing year starts September 1. % Cha 2019/20

U.S. Corn Supply and Use

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

  • 14 -

Corn prices have been stable in the last five years and mostly under $4/bu.

Nearby corn futures

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 All time record meat protein production in 2018 and expected to continue in 2020 and 2021

  • 15 -

Combined USA Beef, Pork, Broiler and Turkey Production

Million Pounds. Carcass Wt. Basis. USDA Actual + Steiner Forecasts

90,929 105,932

40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000

+16.3%

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Protein Growth Expected to Slow Down Even as it Hits All Time Record Highs

  • 16 -

2017 2018 % CH. 2019 % CH. 2020 % CH. 2021 % CH.

BEEF 26,187 26,872 2.6% 27,342 1.7% 27,446 0.4% 27,235

  • 0.8%

PORK 25,584 26,315 2.9% 27,653 5.1% 28,478 3.0% 28,912 1.5% BROILERS 41,217 42,146 2.3% 42,964 1.9% 43,594 1.5% 43,939 0.8% TURKEYS 5,905 5,802

  • 1.7%

5,746

  • 1.0%

5,772 0.4% 5,846 1.3% LAMB 145 153 5.4% 150

  • 2.0%

149

  • 0.4%

153 2.5% VEAL 74 76 2.0% 74

  • 2.0%

71

  • 4.3%

73 3.0% TOTAL 99,113 101,365 2.3% 103,929 2.5% 105,510 1.5% 106,159 0.6%

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 USA Cattle/Beef Supplies

Cattle Inventory Near Its Cyclical Peak

  • 17 -

INVENTORY (000 OMITTED) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % Ch. vs. 2018 2020 Estimate % Ch. vs. 2019 ALL CATTLE AND CALVES 94,081 92,887 91,160 90,095 88,243 89,173 91,888 93,625 94,298 94,760 0.5% 94,919 0.2% COW AND HEIFERS THAT HAVE CALVED 40,526 40,068 39,517 38,853 38,165 38,644 39,476 40,539 40,898 41,119 0.5% 41,004

  • 0.3%

BEEF COWS 31,440 30,913 30,282 29,631 28,956 29,332 30,164 31,171 31,466 31,766 1.0% 31,714

  • 0.2%

DAIRY COWS 9,087 9,156 9,236 9,221 9,209 9,312 9,312 9,369 9,432 9,353

  • 0.8%

9,290

  • 0.7%

HEIFERS 500LBS. AND OVER 19,778 19,650 19,445 19,256 18,919 19,266 19,902 20,112 20,218 20,230 0.1% 20,220 0.0% BEEF COW REPLACEMENT 5,443 5,135 5,281 5,429 5,556 6,086 6,335 6,363 6,108 5,925

  • 3.0%

5,850

  • 1.3%

DAIRY COW REPALCEMENT 4,551 4,577 4,618 4,546 4,539 4,710 4,814 4,754 4,768 4,702

  • 1.4%

4,650

  • 1.1%

OTHER HEIFERS 9,784 9,938 9,546 9,281 8,824 8,469 8,753 8,995 9,341 9,604 2.8% 9,720 1.2% STEERS 500 LBS. AND OVER 16,568 16,394 15,957 15,931 15,623 15,630 16,305 16,374 16,528 16,633 0.6% 16,785 0.9% BULLS 500 LBS. AND OVER 2,190 2,165 2,100 2,074 2,038 2,109 2,137 2,244 2,252 2,263 0.5% 2,260

  • 0.1%

HFRS, STRS AND BULLS UNDER 500 LBS. 15,019 14,610 14,141 13,983 13,498 13,524 14,067 14,356 14,401 14,515 0.8% 14,650 0.9% ANNUAL CALF CROP 35,740 35,357 34,469 33,630 33,522 34,087 35,063 35,758 36,403 36,300

  • 0.3%

Note: Shaded numbers represent Steiner estimates

JANUARY 1st U. S. CATTLE INVENTORY

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 USA Cattle/Beef Supplies

Next Year Will Be The 6th Year of Current Cycle

  • 18 -

Comparing US Cattle Cycles of the Last +50 Years

Y/Y Change in Cattle Inventories.

  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14

1958 - 1967 1967 - 1979 1979 - 1990 1990 - 2004 2004 - 2014 2014 - Current # of years from the start of the cycle

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

US Cattle Inventories were +0.7% in 2018 and Forecast +0.5% in 2019

  • 19 -

1958 = 91,176 1975 = 132,028 1990 = 95,816 1996 = 103,548 2004 = 94,403 2007 = 96,573

40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000

TOTAL INVENTORIES, 000 OMITTED

CATTLE INVENTORIES, 000 HEAD, 1920 - 2019 + 2020 Forecast

Jan 1, 2020 94.9 mil head

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cow/Bull Slaughter Capacity

  • 20 -

WEEKLY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER. '000 HEAD

Source: USDA-AMS

90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5-Yr Avg. 2017 2018 2019

Dairy liquidation forced kills up in March and early April. Slaughter is currently near seasonal highs.

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Steer Weights Continue to Drift Lower, Limiting Supply of Beef Coming to Market

  • 21 -

650 680 710 740 770 800 830 860 DRESSED WEIGHTS, POUNDS

FI CATTLE AVERAGE DRESSED WEIGHTS: 1990 - 2019

Dressed Carcass Weights. Weekly. USDA

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

US Productivity (feedlot based) vs. Other Key Producers/Exporters

  • 22 -

BEEF KILOGRAM PRODUCED (DRESSED WT.) PER ANIMAL IN THE HERD. ANNUAL

SOURCE: USDA

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0

USA Australia Brazil

  • N. Zealand

Uruguay Argentina

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

US Cattle Prices Have Been Extremely Volatile in Last 3 Years

  • 23 -
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Lack of profitability driving liquidation of the beef cow herd in 2018/19

  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 400 500 600

ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW-CALF RETURNS

Returns over cash costs (includes pasture rent), Annual, US$/cow

forecast

Source: LMIC

  • 24 -
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Female Slaughter Ratio Indicates Expansion Cycle Has Come to an End

  • 25 -

0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ratio of Female Slaughter (Heifers + Cows) To Total US Cattle Slaughter

Weekly Data and 52wk Moving Average. Last Reported Week is October 12, 2019

52-wk MA weekly ratio

Liquidation Rebuilding

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Cow Slaughter Outlook for rest of 2019 & in 2020

  • 26 -

2019 cow slaughter for Jan – Aug = 4.211MM head, +2.5% higher than a year ago Forecast for cow slaughter in 2019 = +2.2% Forecast for cow slaughter in 2020 = +0.7% Robust dairy prices could cause slaughter to actually decline y/y in 2020

Ratio of Cow Slaughter vs. January 1 All Cow Inventory

Annual Data. Source: USDA

10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Est

1990 - 2018 Avg.

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 27 -

BEEF

QUARTERLY SLAUGHTER, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND DISAPPEARANCE

=A x B A B C D E F G =C+D-E+F+G

Year & Quarter Commercial Slaughter Percent Change From Year Ago Average Carcass Weights Percent Change From Year Ago Commercial Meat Production Percent Change From Year Ago Imports Percent Change From Year Ago Exports Percent Change From Year Ago Farm Production Adjustments to Ending Stocks to Balance Total Disappearance Percent Change From Year Ago

(1,000 Head) Lbs. (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.)

2015 1st Qtr. 6,969

  • 5.5%

813 2.2% 5,665

  • 3.5%

877 46.9% 524

  • 10.2%

24 49 6,091 3.7% 2nd Qtr. 7,229

  • 7.8%

810 2.7% 5,856

  • 5.3%

989 28.9% 607

  • 9.1%

8

  • 8

6,238 0.0% 3rd Qtr. 7,291

  • 4.5%

832 2.8% 6,068

  • 1.8%

889 16.3% 542

  • 20.3%

8 32 6,456 2.3% 4th Qtr. 7,263

  • 0.9%

841 2.3% 6,109 1.5% 613

  • 25.1%

595

  • 7.5%

24 19 6,169

  • 2.4%

Year 28,752

  • 4.7%

824 2.5% 23,698

  • 2.3%

3,368 14.3% 2,267

  • 11.9%

63 92 24,953 0.9% 2016 1st Qtr. 7,184 3.1% 826 1.7% 5,938 4.8% 792

  • 9.7%

535 2.2% 25

  • 41

6,179 1.4% 2nd Qtr. 7,631 5.6% 811 0.1% 6,187 5.7% 831

  • 16.0%

621 2.4% 8

  • 24

6,381 2.3% 3rd Qtr. 7,845 7.6% 825

  • 0.9%

6,472 6.6% 751

  • 15.6%

660 21.9% 8 73 6,643 2.9% 4th Qtr. 7,919 9.0% 837

  • 0.5%

6,625 8.4% 638 4.1% 740 24.3% 25 66 6,614 7.2% Year 30,578 6.4% 825 0.1% 25,221 6.4% 3,012

  • 10.6%

2,557 12.8% 67 74 25,817 3.5% 2017 1st Qtr. 7,714 7.4% 817

  • 1.1%

6,303 6.2% 700

  • 11.7%

653 21.9% 26

  • 141

6,234 0.9% 2nd Qtr. 8,076 5.8% 793

  • 2.2%

6,407 3.5% 812

  • 2.3%

680 9.5% 9

  • 63

6,484 1.6% 3rd Qtr. 8,254 5.2% 816

  • 1.1%

6,736 4.1% 814 8.4% 746 12.9% 9 107 6,919 4.2% 4th Qtr. 8,145 2.9% 828

  • 1.1%

6,742 1.8% 668 4.7% 781 5.5% 26

  • 11

6,643 0.4% Year 32,189 5.3% 814

  • 1.4%

26,187 3.8% 2,993

  • 0.6%

2,859 11.8% 68

  • 108

26,281 1.8% 2018 1st Qtr. 7,878 2.1% 821 0.5% 6,466 2.6% 721 3.1% 731 12.0% 26

  • 32

6,451 3.5% 2nd Qtr. 8,426 4.3% 798 0.6% 6,726 5.0% 805

  • 0.9%

801 17.8% 9

  • 22

6,717 3.6% 3rd Qtr. 8,361 1.3% 816

  • 0.1%

6,819 1.2% 807

  • 0.8%

828 11.0% 9 85 6,892

  • 0.4%

4th Qtr. 8,341 2.4% 823

  • 0.6%

6,862 1.8% 664

  • 0.5%

800 2.5% 26 110 6,861 3.3% Year 33,005 2.5% 814 0.1% 26,872 2.6% 2,998 0.2% 3,161 10.5% 70 141 26,921 2.4% 2019 1st Qtr. 7,934 0.7% 808

  • 1.5%

6,414

  • 0.8%

738 2.4% 696

  • 4.8%

27

  • 25

6,458 0.1% 2nd Qtr. 8,573 1.7% 795

  • 0.4%

6,814 1.3% 836 3.9% 790

  • 1.4%

9

  • 35

6,835 1.8% * 3rd Qtr. 8,545 2.2% 815

  • 0.1%

6,964 2.1% 780

  • 3.4%

830 0.2% 9 160 7,083 2.8% * 4th Qtr. 8,357 0.2% 825 0.3% 6,895 0.5% 645

  • 2.9%

820 2.4% 27 20 6,766

  • 1.4%

* Year 33,410 1.2% 811

  • 0.4%

27,087 0.8% 3,000 0.1% 3,136

  • 0.8%

71 95 27,117 0.7% 2020 * 1st Qtr. 7,980 0.6% 815 0.8% 6,503 1.4% 710

  • 3.9%

750 7.8% 27

  • 40

6,450

  • 0.1%

* 2nd Qtr. 8,547

  • 0.3%

800 0.7% 6,838 0.4% 760

  • 9.1%

825 4.5% 9

  • 50

6,732

  • 1.5%

* 3rd Qtr. 8,570 0.3% 821 0.7% 7,036 1.0% 745

  • 4.5%

895 7.8% 9 50 6,945

  • 1.9%

* 4th Qtr. 8,282

  • 0.9%

829 0.5% 6,866

  • 0.4%

610

  • 5.4%

885 7.9% 27

  • 10

6,607

  • 2.3%

* Year 33,380

  • 0.1%

816 0.7% 27,244 0.6% 2,825

  • 5.8%

3,355 7.0% 71 10 26,795

  • 1.2%

2021 * 1st Qtr. 7,839

  • 1.8%

820 0.6% 6,428

  • 1.2%

710 0.0% 770 2.7% 27

  • 75

6,320

  • 2.0%

* 2nd Qtr. 8,419

  • 1.5%

805 0.6% 6,777

  • 0.9%

770 1.3% 845 2.4% 9

  • 50

6,661

  • 1.0%

* 3rd Qtr. 8,468

  • 1.2%

826 0.6% 6,994

  • 0.6%

790 6.0% 910 1.7% 9 50 6,933

  • 0.2%

* 4th Qtr. 8,112

  • 2.1%

835 0.7% 6,773

  • 1.3%

620 1.6% 890 0.6% 27

  • 10

6,520

  • 1.3%

* Year 32,838

  • 1.6%

822 0.6% 26,973

  • 1.0%

2,890 2.3% 3,415 1.8% 71

  • 25

26,494

  • 1.1%

* Estimates

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Demand/Supplies in Other Markets

Key Metrics for Major Global Beef Importers

Cattle Population Human Population Cattle/ Person Cattle Slaughter Cattle Sltr./ Cattle Inv. Beef Production

  • Prod. KG /

Cattle Sltr. Beef Exports Beef Exports / Beef Prod.

000 head

  • mil. People

000 head MT, CWE KG, CWE

USA 94,760 331 0.29 34,018 0.36 12,289 361 1,418 12% CANADA 11,440 37 0.31 3,675 0.32 1,330 362 570 43% MEXICO 16,699 126 0.13 6,250 0.37 2,030 325 355 17% AUSTRALIA 25,734 26 1.01 8,500 0.33 2,300 271 1,657 72%

  • N. ZEALAND

10,107 5 2.00 4,375 0.43 686 157 650 95% BRAZIL 238,158 211 1.13 40,575 0.17 10,210 252 2,250 22% URUGUAY 11,396 4 3.24 2,255 0.20 568 252 470 83% ARGENTINA 53,805 45 1.19 13,500 0.25 3,040 225 700 23% INDIA 306,700 1352 0.23 38,800 0.13 4,287 110 1,600 37%

Data source: USDA

  • 28 -
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Demand/Supplies in Other Markets

January Inventory trends in Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay & Brazil

  • 29 -
10,183 10,368 10,033 10,152 10,146 10,107 10,128 10,096 9,600 9,700 9,800 9,900 10,000 10,100 10,200 10,300 10,400 10,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

NEW ZEALAND CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head
  • 3.2%
1.2%
  • 0.1%
  • 0.4%
0.2%
  • 0.3%
29,291 29,102 27,413 24,971 26,176 25,734 24,484 24,434 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 30,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

AUSTRALIA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

000 head
  • 5.8%
  • 8.9%
4.8%
  • 1.7%
  • 4.9%
  • 0.2%
11,903 12,053 12,016 11,864 11,744 11,396 11,441 11,631 10,800 11,000 11,200 11,400 11,600 11,800 12,000 12,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

URUGUAY CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

000 head
  • 0.3%
  • 1.3%
  • 1.0%
  • 3.0%
0.4% 1.7% 219,180 226,045 232,350 238,158 244,143 249,000 150,000 170,000 190,000 210,000 230,000 250,000 270,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

BRAZIL CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 51,545 52,565 53,515 53,715 53,805 54,085 54,185 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 55,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

ARGENTINA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16,615 16,490 16,584 16,699 16,900 17,150 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F

MEXICO CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head
  • 0.8%
0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5%
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Demand/Supplies in Other Markets

Australia Beef Exports Diversifying Away from the US

  • 30 -

Key Markets for Australian Beef: 2012 - 2019

Metric Ton. Shipped Weight Basis

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

China USA ROW Japan

  • S. Korea
slide-32
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Demand/Supplies in Other MarketsNew

Zealand Beef Diverts to China in 2019

  • 31 -

Share of New Zealand Beef Exports to USA and China Share of New Zealand Beef Exports During Jan-Sep 2019

Data Source: Stats NZ. Analysis by Steiner Consulting

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

USA 30% China 46%

Japan 4%

  • S. Korea

2% Canada 3% ROW 15%

365,209

metricton s.w.

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SLIDE 33

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China Pork in Context of Global Meat Protein Supply

  • 32 -

 China breeding herd by end of the

year could be down 50% from 2017.

 China’s pork production next year

could be down as much as 40% from 2017 levels.

 This would represent a shortfall of

21.8 million MT. (48.1 billion lb.)

 It would represent a decline of 7%

in global meat supplies of the three main animal proteins.

2017 Meat Protein Supply for Top Global Meat Markets

Source: USDA-FAS & Steiner Consulting

Pork Row 19% Pork China 18%

Chicken 32% Beef (incl. buffalo) 20%

Other 11%

298,353

metric ton Pork 37.5%

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SLIDE 34

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Meat Consumption Patterns Across the World

  • 33 -

Meat Protein Consumption. Kilogram per Person

Source: OECD Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Combined Beef Pork Poultry Sheep South America Argentina 39.6 10.6 40.0 1.2 91.4 43% 12% 44% 1% Brazil 25.9 11.4 37.4 0.5 75.2 34% 15% 50% 1% Colombia 11.5 7.1 28.6 0.2 47.4 24% 15% 60% 0% EU-28 10.9 32.1 24.2 1.8 69.0 16% 47% 35% 3% Asia Japan 7.2 15.5 16.9 0.1 39.7 18% 39% 43% 0%

  • S. Korea

10.3 29.8 17.2 0.3 57.5 18% 52% 30% 0% Malaysia 4.8 6.0 46.5 1.0 58.3 8% 10% 80% 2% China 3.9 30.3 11.9 3.1 49.2 8% 62% 24% 6% Oceania Australia 21.1 21.3 44.0 8.6 94.9 22% 22% 46% 9%

  • N. Zealand

12.9 17.7 37.0 4.5 72.2 18% 25% 51% 6% North America USA 25.9 23.1 48.9 0.4 98.4 26% 23% 50% 0% Canada 17.3 16.5 35.1 0.9 69.9 25% 24% 50% 1% Mexico 8.8 12.3 27.7 0.5 49.3 18% 25% 56% 1% Middle East/India India 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.5 3.3 15% 6% 64% 14%

  • S. Arabia

3.5 0.2 39.7 5.1 48.5 7% 0% 82% 10% Egypt 8.8 0.0 11.4 1.2 21.3 41% 0% 53% 5%

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

What we know of African Swine Fever

  • 34 -

 Deadly to hogs  Highly contagious  Various transmission vectors  No cure and no vaccine  Not dangerous to humans

This is a very hardy virus. It can live for a long time in the freezer. It is only killed with heat at high temperatures for long periods of time. It can be easily transmitted from animal to animal. It can be passed to hogs by feeding scraps, by coming in contact with wild boards, by feeding them infected feed or through employees bringing the disease into farms via trucks, boots, etc.

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SLIDE 36

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Spread of African Swine Fever

  • 35 -

2007 Spread to Georgia, Russia 2010 – 2018 Eastern Europe 2018 – Current Southeast Asia

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SLIDE 37

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Pre-ASF Consumption Patterns

  • 36 -

Pork Consumption in Selected Countries and Rest of the World (ROW)

Source: USDA-FAS. Billion Pounds. Carcass Weight Equivalent.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

China EU USA Russia Brazil Vietnam Japan Mexico

  • S. Korea

ROW

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Russia’s Experience with ASF

  • 37 -

Russia Pork Production + Imports

000 MT. Source: USDA-FAS. Analysis by Steiner Consulting

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Lesson from Russian producers:

“Get bigger and cleaner or get out”

Source: Miratorg quoted in South China Morning Post

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SLIDE 39

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Current Hog Situation in China

  • 38 -

Sows: -16M head

  • 39% Y/Y

All Hogs: -156M head

  • 41% Y/Y

China Sow Inventory M/M % Change

Source: Ministry of Agriculture of China

  • 9.10%
  • 2.80%
  • 10.00%
  • 8.00%
  • 6.00%
  • 4.00%
  • 2.00%

0.00% 2.00% 2017 2018 2019

  • 38.9%

China Live Hog Inventory M/M % Change

Source: Ministry of Agriculture of China

  • 9.40%
  • 9.80%
  • 3.00%
  • 12.00%
  • 10.00%
  • 8.00%
  • 6.00%
  • 4.00%
  • 2.00%

0.00% 2.00% 2017 2018 2019

  • 41.1%
slide-40
SLIDE 40

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China Prices Skyrocket

  • 39 -

▪ Piglet:

+174%

▪ Hog:

+136%

▪ Retail Pork: +112%

Y/Y Price Change

as of Oct 23, 2019

China Price of Baby Pigs, Live Hogs and Retail Pork, Yuan per KG.

Source: China Ministry of Agriculture. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Piglet Price Live Hog Price Pork Price

slide-41
SLIDE 41

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Historical China Pork Consumption

  • 40 -

Per Capita Pork Consumption in China. Assumption: Production down 40% vs. 2017. Imports up 150%.

Source: USDA-FAS. Converted to Pounds per Person. Carcass Weight Equivalent.

25 77 72 95 88 77 57 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1980 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Blue Ear Disease (PRRS) African Swine Fever

???

lb./pp (carcass wt. basis)

35% decline How much of this will be replaced by pork imports and other meat proteins, including chicken

slide-42
SLIDE 42

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China beef and pork imports YTD

  • 41 -

Sep: +72% YTD: +44% Sep: +52% YTD: +33%

Pork Beef

China Beef Imports in Jan - Sep 2019. Metric Ton.

Source: China Customs Import Partners 9/1/2018 9/1/2019 Y/Y MT Y/Y % Jan - Sep 2018 Jan - Sep 2019 Y/Y MT Y/Y % Brazil 31,652 36,294 4,642 15% 221,566 200,624 (20,942)

  • 9%

Uruguay 19,096 23,747 4,650 24% 160,701 193,148 32,448 20% Argentina 20,969 35,445 14,477 69% 119,053 217,778 98,725 83% Australia 15,657 33,451 17,794 114% 126,719 181,051 54,333 43% New Zealand 9,198 16,059 6,861 75% 87,821 149,011 61,190 70% Canada 649

  • (649)
  • 100%

4,650 9,948 5,298 114% South Africa 769

  • (769)
  • 100%

4,058 1,872 (2,186)

  • 54%

Costa Rica 517 832 315 61% 3,667 6,525 2,858 78% United States 471 1,045 573 122% 5,194 5,284 90 2% Other 773 4,466 3,694 478% 4,612 14,456 9,844 213% Total 99,752 151,339 51,588 52% 738,040 979,698 241,658 33%

China Pork Import Update: Latest Data is for September 2019

Source: China Customs Statistics. Data is in Metric Ton, Product Wt. 9/1/2018 9/1/2019 Jan-Sep 2018 Jan-Sep 2019 European Union 59,828 100,974 41,146 69% 572,991 810,437 237,446 41% Spain 19,366 31,459 12,093 62% 173,425 247,070 73,645 42% Germany 16,579 26,720 10,140 61% 173,702 221,539 47,837 28% Netherlands 6,957 12,768 5,812 84% 62,755 98,610 35,855 57% Denmark 5,328 9,826 4,498 84% 55,887 88,728 32,842 59% France 3,675 8,539 4,864 132% 36,476 56,337 19,861 54% United Kingdom 4,300 6,502 2,201 51% 35,236 52,553 17,317 49% Ireland 3,057 4,051 994 33% 24,803 36,765 11,962 48% Austria 71 1,060 989 71 7,513 7,443 Portugal

  • 51

51

  • 1,321

1,321 Belgium 494

  • (494)

3,628

  • (3,628)

Hungary

  • 7,003
  • (7,003)

Romania

  • Italy

1

  • (1)

5

  • (5)

Lithuania

  • 1
  • (1)

Estonia

  • 1
  • (1)
  • Brazil

15,554 22,438 6,884 44% 108,423 143,984 35,560 33% Canada 10,749 2,896 (7,853)

  • 73%

124,153 171,565 47,412 38% United States 3,623 26,248 22,625 625% 80,466 139,428 58,962 73% Chile 4,243 7,773 3,530 83% 34,239 50,904 16,665 49% Finland 251 249 (2)

  • 1%

1,381 2,967 1,586 115% Mexico 70 1,258 1,188 1698% 1,398 6,417 5,019 359% New Zealand

  • Total

94,317 161,836 67,519 72% 923,053 1,325,701 402,649 44%

slide-43
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

USA and EU hog price comparison

  • 42 -

 EU hog price: $90/cwt

+12% tariff: $108/cwt

 USA hog price:

$58/cwt +62% tariff: $94/cwt *** addl. 10% tariff was suspended

Hog Carcass Prices in USA and EU

Source: USDA and European Comission. Prices Converted to USD/cwt.

58.5 88.2 95.0 90.5 89.8 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2018 2019

USA France Germany Spain Denmark

As of 10/18

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SLIDE 44

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Shortfall in China Pork Production in Global Context

  • 43 -

Shortfall in China pork production vs. Global Supply

Source: USDA-FAS 2017 Pork Production & Steiner Calculations 5 10 15 20 25 30

China Shortfall USA Production EU Production ROW

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Pork Consumption Preferences in China

  • 44 -
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SLIDE 46

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Decline in China Meat Protein Supply Availability

  • 45 -

Change in China Production of Pork, Chicken and Beef

Source: USDA-FAS and Steiner Consulting

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

2017 2020 Pork Chicken Beef

21.8 MM reduction in pork supply

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SLIDE 47

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

USA and China Meat Consumption Comparison

  • 46 -

USA Consumption of Red Meat & Poultry. Lb./PP China Consumption of Red Meat, Poultry and Fish. Lb./PP

Source: OECD Dataset for 2017. Red Meat Data in CWE. Poultry in RTC. Source: OECD Dataset for 2017. Red Meat Data in CWE. Poultry in RTC.

Beef 57 26% Pork 51 24% Poultry 108 50% Sheep Meat, 1, 0%

217

pounds per person

Beef 9 8% Pork 67 62% Poultry 26 24% Sheep Meat 7 6%

108

pounds per person

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SLIDE 48

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China Beef Imports, Metric Ton, Carcass wt. basis

  • 47 -

China now accounts for:

  • +70% of Argentina

exports

  • +65% of Uruguay

exports

  • +40% of Brazil exports

(incl. HK)

  • +50% of New Zealand

exports

  • +20% of Australia

exports

China Annual Beef Imports: 2000 - 2020

Source: USDA-FAS, Actual + Estimates

1,467 2,400 2,900

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

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SLIDE 49

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China Pork Imports, ‘000 Metric Ton, Carcass wt. basis

  • 48 -

China Annual Pork Imports: 2000 - 2020

Source: USDA-FAS, Actual + Estimates

1,561 2,600 3,500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 '000 MT

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China Chicken Imports, ‘000 Metric Ton, Carcass wt. basis

  • 49 -

China Annual Chicken Imports: 2000 - 2020

Source: USDA-FAS, Actual + Estimates

342 625 750

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 '000 MT

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China Accounts for a Larger Share of Global Exports

  • 50 -

China Share of Global Exports of Beef, Pork and Chicken China Share of Global Exports of Beef, Pork and Chicken

Source: USDA-FAS Source: USDA-FAS

7% 14% 3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Beef Pork Chicken

2015

25% 34% 6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Beef Pork Chicken

2020

slide-52
SLIDE 52

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

China production response

  • 51 -

Recently the Chinese government has pushed for more domestic pork production

  • By easing environmental constraints
  • By encouraging new and larger hog farms be built

Also, the current high price for hogs in China has given an economic incentive for people to enter the pork business. However, past government programs, which failed to pay famers for hogs that died from ASF gives many pause because of risks.

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SLIDE 53

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Biological Constraints to Immediate Ramp up

  • 52 -

 A female pig becomes sexually active at about 190 – 230 days  The gestation period for hogs is about 114 days. In the US, the growout

time from birth is about 182 days.

 So for a female pig born today and added to the breeding herd, the pigs

from her first litter will go to market in about 526 days. In China grow out time varies much more than in the US and on average it is longer than 182 days. So if the push for more production in China started hard in August 2019, the effect would not be expected to show up in the market until January 2021, at the earliest.

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SLIDE 54

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 African Swine Fever

Conclusions

  • 53 -

 China will be critically short of their preferred animal protein in 2020  There is not enough tradeable pork in the world for China to realistically

supplement 100% of the shortfall.

 The question will be:

Do the Chinese do without? Do the Chinese increase imports of pork as much as they can ???? Do the Chinese change their diet to replace pork with other animal proteins and is so which one?

 Certainly it appears the Chinese second preference for animal protein is poultry

and the Chinese poultry mix is probably 90% chicken and 10% duck.

 World protein production of chicken, pork and beef in major countries in 2020

will be 7% below pre-ASF levels and because of biological constraints this shortfall is largely a fixed number.

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in US Domestic Market

Consumer Confidence Bolstered by Strong Balance Sheets

All-Transactions House Price Index

Index 1980: Q1 = 100. Quarterly. Not Seasonally Adjusted 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450 470 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

  • 54 -

S&P 500 Index

Data updated through: October 10, 2019

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in US Domestic Market

Robust job market underpins beef demand

55

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

p e r c e n t

USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %

Sep 2019 3.5% Dec 2020 Forecast 3.8%

95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.0 102.0 103.0 104.0

  • 900
  • 720
  • 540
  • 360
  • 180

180 360 540 720 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NRA Restaurant Performance Index vs. Monthly Job Gains/Losses

Rest. index Job Gains

monthlyjob gains/losses (L) restaurant index (R)

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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in US Domestic Market Demand Drivers: Income

  • 56 -

45721

30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000

2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 '16 '17 '18 '19

Real Per Capita Disposable Income, US$

Latest data is for: August 2019 recession

slide-58
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2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in US Domestic Market

USA Per Capita Meat Protein Consumption

  • 57 -

200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR

TOTAL BEEF, PORK, POULTRY PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass Wt. Basis)

2019 2020 2021

Forecast

270.4 273.2 269.9

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SLIDE 59

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in US Domestic Market

USA Per Capita Beef Consumption

  • 58 -

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR

BEEF PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass wt. Basis)

2018 2019 2020

Forecast

82.3 80.8 79.3

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SLIDE 60

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in US Domestic Market

USA Per Capita Lamb Consumption

  • 59 -

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR

LAMB, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (Carcass wt. Basis)

1.18 1.18 1.18

2019 2020 2021

Forecast

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SLIDE 61

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins – Plant Based Protein

  • 60 -

239.71 87.01

  • 64%
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SLIDE 62

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 61 -

#8 Competing Proteins

Pork Situation and Outlook

Supplies lies ( Y Y/Y Y % chan ange) e)

Producti uction: n: +5.1% in 2019 +3.0% in 2020 +1.5% in 2021 Exports ts: +8.9% in 2019 +16.2% in 2020 +3.4% in 2021 Per Capita: +2.6% in 2019

  • 1.5% in 2020

+0.7% in 2021

22,843 26,315 27,653 28,478 28,912

15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000

2008 2009 20102011201220132014 2015 20162017201820192020 2021

PORK PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS

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SLIDE 63

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 62 -

#8 Competing Proteins

Ratio of Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout

Beef Price Continues to Gain on Pork

Ratio of Weekly Choice Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout Value

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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SLIDE 64

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins

Price Ratio of Ground Beef vs. Pork Chops

  • 63 -

0.50 2.00

  • 0.50

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio

Ratio: 78CL Meat Block / 1/4" Pork Loins, USDA Wt Avg

52wk Mo. Avg. 2009-10 Avg = 1.22

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SLIDE 65

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins Long Run Price of B/S Chicken Breasts

  • 64 -

60 110 160 210 260 310

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LONG TERM PRICE CHART: 1990 -2019

$/cwt

Price History and Forecast for B/S Chicken Breast Price. USDA-AMS. $/cwt

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SLIDE 66

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins

Broiler Situation and Outlook

42,964 43,59443,939

30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000

20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

MILLION POUNDS

BROILER PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS

  • 65 -

Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group

Supplies lies ( Y Y/Y Y % chan ange) e)

Producti uction: n: +1.9% in 2019 +1.5% in 2020 +0.8% in 2021 Exports ts: +2.4% in 2019 +6.4% in 2020 +2.2% in 2021 Per Capita: +1.2% in 2019 +0.2% in 2020 +0.1% in 2021

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SLIDE 67

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins

Ground Beef vs. Chicken Breasts

  • 66 -

Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group

78CL Meat Block = 70% 90CL Boneless Beef, Central, Fresh, USDA, Wt. Avg. + 30% 50CL Beef Trim, Fresh, National, USDA, Wt. Avg. Chicken Breast = USDA N.E. Broiler Breast Boneless, Skinless, Wt. Avg.

1.68

  • 0.50

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio

Ratio: 78CL Meat Block (Using Dom 90LC and 50CL) / Bnls Skinless Chicken Breast

52wk Mo. Avg.

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SLIDE 68

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins Broiler Supplies

  • 67 -

55,063 57,403 59,717 59,892

50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 58,000 60,000 62,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

LAYERS ON 1ST OF MONTH: BROILER TYPE HATCHING

'000

2017 2018 2016 5-Yr. Avg.

Source: USDA/NASS Chicken and Eggs Monthly Report

2019

US WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS

Source: USDA Broiler Hatchery Report 185,000 195,000 205,000 215,000 225,000 235,000 245,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5 Yr. Avg (2012-16) 2018 2019

1000 eggs

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SLIDE 69

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 USA Lamb/Mutton/Goat Market Situation

US Lamb Inventories Remain Flat

  • 68 -

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

US LAMB INVENTORY

mil head

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SLIDE 70

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 USA Lamb/Mutton/Goat Market Situation

Lower Weights Have Limited US Domestic Supplies

  • 69 -

Weekly USA Lamb & Sheep Slaughter

'000 Head/Week. Source: USDA. Compiled and Analysis by Steiner Consulting

26.0 31.0 36.0 41.0 46.0 51.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5-Yr 2018 2019

Weekly USA Lamb Dressed Weights

'000 Head/Week. Source: USDA. Compiled and Analysis by Steiner Consulting

59.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 75.0 77.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5-Yr 2018 2019

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SLIDE 71

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 70 -

#9 USA Lamb/Mutton/Goat Market Situation

Domestic Lamb Prices Above Year Ago This Fall

Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD Basis

Monthly Average Prices, 90-115 lb., $ per 100 lb.

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5-Yr. Avg. 2018 2019

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SLIDE 72

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 USA Lamb/Mutton/Goat Market Situation Imported Racks Remain Very Firm

  • 71 -

Australian Lamb Racks, Fresh, Cap-off, 28 oz/up. 4-WK Moving Avg.

Weekly Prices. Source: USDA 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2018 2017 2016

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SLIDE 73

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 USA Lamb/Mutton/Goat Market Situation

Lamb Imports Share Continues to Expand. 2019 Share @63.4%

  • 72 -

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Domestic Lamb Production + Imports

mil lb.

US domestic production Imports

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SLIDE 74

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 USA Lamb/Mutton/Goat Market Situation Trade Flows so Far in 2019

  • 73 -

Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World Total

Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

  • 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 5-Yr Avg 2017 2018 2019

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SLIDE 75

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 74 -

CURRENT FORECAST

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SLIDE 76

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2019 and 2020

  • 75 -

Close on Oct 25, 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

LIVE STEERS FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 137.69 136.57 127.90 125.68 131.96 2018 HISTORY 125.42 116.36 110.11 114.41 116.57 2019 HISTORY 109.75 125.33 119.99 108.26 2019 FORECAST 114.76 117.08 % CHANGE FROM 2017

  • 0.1%

3.1%

  • 1.7%

0.3% 0.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 9.0%
  • 12.1%
  • 15.4%
  • 8.7%
  • 11.3%

2020 FORECAST 125.67 124.00 120.67 126.67 124.25 % CHANGE FROM 2018 0.3% 3.3% 11.5% 10.4% 6.1% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 8.7%
  • 9.2%
  • 5.7%

0.8%

  • 5.8%

90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 233.80 240.87 245.38 221.50 235.38 2018 HISTORY 215.22 219.22 209.84 192.20 209.12 2019 HISTORY 219.93 209.65 221.77 223.06 2019 FORECAST 227.57 220.51 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 2.6%

1.2% 6.3% 18.4% 5.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 10.3%
  • 7.9%
  • 9.1%

2.7%

  • 6.3%

2020 FORECAST 246.33 251.33 255.00 243.33 249.00 % CHANGE FROM 2019 17.5% 13.3% 14.3% 6.9% 12.9% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 5.4% 4.3% 3.9% 9.9% 5.8%

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SLIDE 77

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2019 and 2020

Close on Oct 25, 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 89.89 102.19 77.82 62.79 83.17 2018 HISTORY 82.38 82.29 67.32 59.22 72.80 2019 HISTORY 65.17 68.14 88.29 82.53 2019 FORECAST 63.38 75.58 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 17.3%

7.3% 22.6% 7.0% 3.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 24.2%
  • 13.6%

6.0% 1.0%

  • 9.1%

2020 FORECAST 90.33 101.67 80.00 71.00 85.75 % CHANGE FROM 2019 32.6% 15.2%

  • 3.1%

12.0% 13.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 0.5%

  • 0.5%

2.8% 13.1% 3.1% 7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 217.86 219.19 231.47 219.91 222.11 2018 HISTORY 217.42 209.69 200.61 183.61 202.83 2019 HISTORY 254.50 213.02 226.93 228.89 2019 FORECAST 256.45 231.32 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 2.0%

8.2% 14.1% 39.7% 14.0% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 2.2%

3.5%

  • 1.1%

16.6% 4.1% 2020 FORECAST 263.67 271.33 274.00 262.67 267.92 % CHANGE FROM 2019 23.8% 19.6% 19.7% 2.4% 15.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 21.0% 23.8% 18.4% 19.4% 20.6%

  • 76 -
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SLIDE 78

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2019 and 2020

  • 77 -

Close on Oct 25, 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

CME 1-DAY Cash Hog Index 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 72.88 81.62 80.54 66.41 75.36 2018 HISTORY 69.09 67.80 62.66 60.66 65.05 2019 HISTORY 65.49 57.06 80.94 70.69 2019 FORECAST 66.53 68.81 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 17.4%

19.4% 12.8% 9.7% 5.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 21.7%
  • 0.8%
  • 12.2%

0.2%

  • 8.7%

2020 FORECAST 77.33 89.67 87.33 79.33 83.42 % CHANGE FROM 2019 35.5% 10.8% 23.5% 19.3% 21.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 6.1% 9.9% 8.4% 19.5% 10.7% NEW YORK BROILER WEIGHTED AVERAGE, WTD AVG, USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 93.12 105.69 93.15 86.35 94.58 2018 HISTORY 94.16 114.42 97.52 88.25 98.59 2019 HISTORY 78.46 95.54 96.46 82.82 2019 FORECAST 80.30 88.78 % CHANGE FROM 2018 1.5%

  • 15.7%
  • 15.1%
  • 9.0%
  • 9.9%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 2.6%

  • 8.7%
  • 11.1%
  • 7.0%
  • 6.1%

2020 FORECAST 91.33 105.67 93.00 87.67 94.42 % CHANGE FROM 2019

  • 4.4%

9.5% 12.3% 9.2% 6.3% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 1.9%

0.0%

  • 0.2%

1.5%

  • 0.2%
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SLIDE 79

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2019 and 2020

  • 78 -

Close on Oct 25, 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

USDA, Carcass Pork Cutout, FOB Plant 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 82.07 88.56 90.11 80.54 85.32 2018 HISTORY 77.45 74.83 75.00 73.50 75.19 2019 HISTORY 76.15 67.98 83.30 77.34 2019 FORECAST 80.81 77.36 % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 12.2%

11.3% 3.1% 9.9% 2.9% 2020 FORECAST

  • 17.2%
  • 5.9%
  • 14.2%

0.3%

  • 9.3%

% CHANGE FROM 2019 87.00 97.33 95.00 96.67 94.00 % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 28.0% 16.8% 22.8% 19.6% 21.5% 2021 FORECAST 6.0% 9.9% 5.4% 20.0% 10.2% CME 1-DAY Cash Hog Index 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 72.88 81.62 80.54 66.41 75.36 2018 HISTORY 69.09 67.80 62.66 60.66 65.05 2019 HISTORY 65.49 57.06 80.94 70.69 2019 FORECAST 66.53 68.81 % CHANGE FROM 2017

  • 17.4%

19.4% 12.8% 9.7% 5.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 21.7%
  • 0.8%
  • 12.2%

0.2%

  • 8.7%

2020 FORECAST 77.33 89.67 87.33 79.33 83.42 % CHANGE FROM 2018 35.5% 10.8% 23.5% 19.3% 21.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 6.1% 9.9% 8.4% 19.5% 10.7%

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SLIDE 80

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2019 and 2020

  • 79 -

Close on Oct 25, 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

USDA HEN TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 8-16LBS, WTD. AVG. 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 98.98 102.93 108.17 105.99 104.01 2018 HISTORY 79.20 80.07 82.88 81.17 80.83 2019 HISTORY 96.00 83.23 86.12 91.52 2019 FORECAST 100.32 90.30 % CHANGE FROM 2018 5.1% 7.6% 10.4% 23.6% 11.7% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 15.9%
  • 16.3%
  • 15.4%
  • 5.4%
  • 13.2%

2020 FORECAST 94.00 94.00 97.00 102.33 96.83 % CHANGE FROM 2019 12.9% 9.2% 6.0% 2.0% 7.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 5.0%
  • 8.7%
  • 10.3%
  • 3.4%
  • 6.9%

USDA TOM TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 16-24LBS, WTD. AVG. 5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 99.27 103.87 107.40 105.58 104.03 2018 HISTORY 81.69 78.46 81.60 79.61 80.34 2019 HISTORY 96.00 82.63 84.55 90.49 2019 FORECAST 97.33 88.75 % CHANGE FROM 2018 1.1% 7.8% 10.9% 22.3% 10.5% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 16.8%
  • 18.6%
  • 15.7%
  • 7.8%
  • 14.7%

2020 FORECAST 93.00 93.00 96.00 101.33 95.83 % CHANGE FROM 2019 12.6% 10.0% 6.1% 4.1% 8.0% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 6.3%
  • 10.5%
  • 10.6%
  • 4.0%
  • 7.9%
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SLIDE 81

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Live Cattle Prices

70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER

5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 80 -
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SLIDE 82

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

US Domestic 90CL Boneless Beef Prices

170.00 190.00 210.00 230.00 250.00 270.00 290.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA

5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 81 -
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SLIDE 83

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

US Domestic 50CL Beef Trim

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA

5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 82 -
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SLIDE 84

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Imported 90CL Australian Beef

160.00 180.00 200.00 220.00 240.00 260.00 280.00 300.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET

5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 83 -
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SLIDE 85

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Spread, Domestic - Imported

  • 40.00
  • 30.00
  • 20.00
  • 10.00

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

DOMESTIC 90CL FRESH, FOB CENTRAL US MINUS 90CL IMPORTED, FROZEN, FOB US EAST COAST

5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 84 -
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SLIDE 86

2020 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Whole Broiler Prices

70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA

5-YR AVERAGE 2014-18 2018 HISTORY 2019 HISTORY 2019 FORECAST 2020 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 85 -