Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2018 Annual General Meeting & Conference Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood, FL October 8 - 11, 2018 supporting and promoting imported meat Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 Main Discussion Points


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SLIDE 1

 

Presented by: Len Steiner

Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612

supporting and promoting imported meat

2018 Annual General Meeting & Conference

Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood, FL

October 8 - 11, 2018

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Main Discussion Points Today

 #1: Economic Situation in US and World  #2: Currency Markets  #3: Feed Input Costs  #4: Cattle Supplies in USA, Canada and Mexico  #5: Product Availability from Importing Partners

  • Special Update on: Brazil, Argentina and Ireland

 #6: Demand in US Domestic Market  #7: Demand in Other Markets (Competition)

  • Special Discussion about China and Impact on World Protein Market:

Trade War, African Swine Fever  #8: Supplies of Competing Proteins  #9: US Lamb Business  #10: Price Forecasts

  • 1 -
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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Global Situation – Last Year

  • 2 -

Canada: robust growth in Q1. Export growth remains a weak point USA: job market recovery continues. Growth rebounded in Q2 and expansion remains on track EU Impact of Brexit starting to be felt in

  • UK. North/East

expanding and even South is recovering Brazil: Two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Argentina: Continued improvement in business conditions and higher commodity prices bolstering growth

India: Growth has slowed but expansion remains on track

New Zealand: Low unemployment, higher inflation, more growth Japan: Modest inflation and weaker Yen is supportive China: Growth has recovered. Consumer spending accelerated in last two quarters, which is key as economy relies less on heavy industry Russia: Finally out of recession economy slowly recovering. GDP +0.3%, inflation down to 4%

Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner

Mexico: GDP growth was 2.8% in Q1, up from 2.3% in previous quarter

Australia: Q2 growth was up 0.8%, a much faster pace than the previous quarter.

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Global Situation – Current

3

Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner

India:

Economy has recovered as impact from demonetization has faded.

Canada: Q2 growth accelerated to 2.9% from 1.3% in Q1. Negotiations with USA continue over a revised NAFTA. That remains a key risk USA: US GDP revised higher in Q2 and low unemployment should continue to bolster wages/spending. Mexico: GDP improved to 2.6% in Q2 compared to 1.3% in Q1. Unemployment rate increased to 3.5% but remains below year ago levels Argentina: GDP growth declined a stunning 4.2% in Q2 compared to +3.6% in

  • Q1. The economic activity

index continues to head lower and unemployment is now 9.1% compared to 7% at the end of last year Brazil: Growth estimates have been revised lower following the trucker strike and election uncertainty. Unemployment rate has been trending lower, however. EU Brexit negotiations are approaching some key deadlines and no deal appears imminent. Russia: The Russian economy has recovered from the impact of sanctions and expanded 1.3% in Q1 compared to 0.9% in late 2017. Japan: Q2 growth was higher than expected and surprised the

  • market. Robust

private investment supported growth China: Exports remain resilient despite trade war with USA but risks are heavily weighted to the

  • downside. Equity

markets are down 20% YTD New Zealand: Q2 growth numbers have yet to be released by expectations are for more robust growth as export pace accelerated

Australia: GDP growth in Q2 was +0.9% compared to +1% in the previous quarter but still much faster than in 2016 and 2017.

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Global Economic Growth Expected to Further Expand in 2019

  • 4 -

Source: Moody's Economy.com

World

  • N. Am.
  • S. Am.

Euro Asia Oceania

2015 2.7 2.7

  • 1.9

2.0 4.5 2.5 2016 2.4 1.6

  • 3.0

1.9 4.7 2.8 2017 3.1 2.3 0.4 2.5 5.0 2.3 2018 Fcst previous 3.1 2.9 1.1 2.2 4.7 2.7 revised 3.2 2.8 0.8 2.1 4.9 3.2 2019 Fcst previous 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.9 4.5 2.7 revised 3.0 2.6 1.7 2.0 4.7 2.7 Last update: September 12, 2018

  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

World

  • N. Am.
  • S. Am.

Euro Asia Oceania

REAL GDP GROWTH %

GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK

2015 2016 2017 2018 Fcst 2019 Fcst

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Robust growth but more risks in the horizon

Positives

  • Financial system more robust
  • Full employment
  • Rising consumer wealth
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Strong corporate balance sheets
  • Banks in good shape
  • Export demand

Negatives

  • Trade war with China
  • Emerging market financial crisis
  • Brexit
  • Geopolitical risks and oil price

volatility

  • 5 -

* Forecast: Moody’s

  • 10.00
  • 8.00
  • 6.00
  • 4.00
  • 2.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 % ch.

ANNUAL USA GROWTH RATE OF GDP

Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate

forecast

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

US economy has added jobs consistently since 2011

  • 6 -
  • Payrolls in September were up 134k, lower than in previous months as Hurricane

Florence impacted growth.

  • Job gains for July and August were revised higher, however. Economy has added 1.875

million jobs since the start of the year.

  • 1000
  • 800
  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

THOUSAND JOBS

NEW JOB CREATION: NON AGRICULTURAL, 000's

Data Updated through September 2018

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

percent

USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %

September 2018 3.7% Dec 2019 Forecast 3.6%

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Foodservice sales jumped in 2018, a sign of a booming economy

Foodservice dollar sales have increased sharply this year, a sign of the booming economy but also rising price inflation in the segment. Grocery dollar sales were also higher this year

  • 7 -
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

GROCERY STORE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.

Latest Data is for August 2018

  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.

Latest Data is for August 2018

Source: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Foodservice, US Census Bureau

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Fast Food Outperformed Other Sectors In August

  • 8 -
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.

Latest Data is for August 2018

Same Store Sales - August 2018 vs. August 2017, Tracking Survey Responses by Industry Segment Source: National Restaurant Association Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Limited Service Quick Casual Higher Sales 50% 52% 77% 63% 58% Lower Sales 25% 24% 10% 31% 0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SAME STORE SALES

Source: US Census Source: National Restaurant Association

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#1 Economic Situation in US and World

Foodservice inflation reflects higher labor/operational costs

  • 9 -

Data updated through: August 2018

Food CPI Comparisons. Jan 2008 = 100

Source: BLS. Analysis by Steiner.

95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Food at Limited Service Restaurants Food away from home Food at Home

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# 2 Currency Markets

Performance of US$ vs. Imported Beef Currencies in last 12 months

  • 10 -

US Dollar vs. Currencies of Top Meat Trading Partners

% change in the last 12 months (Oct. 2017 - Sep. 2018)

90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 135%

Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 Jul '18 Aug '18 Sep '18 Oct '18

USD/BRL

USD/EURO

USD/NZD USD/AUD USD/CAD USD/Peso

Positive for US imports Negative for US exports Negative for US imports Positive for US exports

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# 2 Currency Markets

Price of Imported 90CL Beef in US$ Has Been Trending Lower

  • 11 -

US $200 cwt US $190/cwt

100 150 200 250 300 350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF)

Prices in US$/cwt

USD/cwt

Pricein USD

Oct 2012 Current

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# 2 Currency Markets

Price of Imported 90CL Beef in US$ Terms & AUD Terms

  • 12 -

$265/cwt $190/cwt

100 150 200 250 300 350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF East Coast).

Prices in US$/cwt and AUD/cwt

USD/cwt

Pricein USD and AUD

AUD/cwt

+40% gain from currency shift

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

Four Consecutive Years of Above Trend Yields = A lot of Corn

  • 13 -

Corn yields: 2012 – 123.1 bu. 2018 – 181.3 bu. =

+47% increase

CORN YIELDS SINCE 1990 AND 2018-19 USDA FORECASTED YIELDS

Corn Yields Since 1990. Latest USDA Forecast is from September 2018 WASDE

2018 USDA Est.

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 not included in trend 1990 - 2017 Linear Trend 2017

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

Corn Acres Lower in 2018 But Expected at 93M next Year Since 2007 planted acres have averaged 91 million. + Above average yields = Corn production

  • utpacing

consumption

  • 14 -

93.5 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 million acres

US CORN PLANTED ACRES

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

Corn supplies will be plentiful for another 12 months

  • 15 -

Record Yield Higher feed use Lower s/u ratio implies modest price increase

2016/17 2017/18 USDA Actual USDA Est USDA Aug Est USDA Sep Est vs. 2016/17 vs. 2017/18 . Planted 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.1

  • 5.2%
  • 1.2%

Harvested 86.7 82.7 81.8 81.8

  • 5.7%
  • 1.1%

Yield per harvested acre 174.6 176.6 178.4 181.3 3.8% 2.7% Beginning stocks 1,737 2,293 2,027 2,002 15.3%

  • 12.7%

Production 15,148 14,604 14,586 14,827

  • 2.1%

1.5% Imports 57 40 50 50

  • 12.3%

25.0% Supply, total 16,942 16,937 16,664 16,879

  • 0.4%
  • 0.3%

Feed and residual 5,470 5,450 5,525 5,575 1.9% 2.3% Ethanol for fuel 5,432 5,600 5,625 5,625 3.6% 0.4% Food, seed and residual 1,453 1,460 1,480 1,505 3.6% 3.1% Domestic use, total 12,355 12,510 12,630 12,705 2.8% 1.6% Exports 2,294 2,425 2,350 2,400 4.6%

  • 1.0%

Use, total 14,649 14,935 14,980 15,105 3.1% 1.1% Ending stocks 2,293 2,002 1,684

1,774

  • 22.6%
  • 11.4%
  • Avg. farm price ($/bu)

3.36 3.40 3.10-4.10 3.00-4.00 4.2% 2.9% Ending Stocks/Use 15.7% 13.4% 11.2%

11.7%

Source: USDA Monthly WASDE Report.

** Corn crop marketing year starts September 1. % Change 2018/19

U.S. Corn Supply and Use

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

Ethanol Demand Is Flat, Limiting Demand for Corn in Domestic Market

  • 16 -

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 MIL BU.

CORN USED FOR ETHANOL PRODUCTION IN USA

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% % OF TOAL USE

CORN USED FOR ETHANOL AS % OF TOTAL USE

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

  • 17 -

The difference between 123.1 bu/acre and 181.3 bu/acre = more than double the price

Nearby corn futures

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Feed Input Costs

Filling the gap - feed use highest in a decade

  • 18 -

Amount of corn going into livestock/poultry consumption is at highest point in 10 years

5,128 4,309 5,575 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 million bu.

US CORN GOING INTO LIVESTOCK & POULTRY FEED (+ residual)

2018-19 2008-09

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 All time record meat protein production in 2018 and expected to continue in 2019 and 2020

  • 19 -

Combined USA Beef, Pork, Broiler and Turkey Production

Million Pounds. Carcass Wt. Basis. USDA Actual + Steiner Forecasts 90,929 104,597 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000

+16%

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#3 Protein Growth Expected to Remain Broad based through 2019

  • 20 -

2016 2017 2018 % CH. 2019 % CH. 2020 % CH.

BEEF 25,221 26,187 27,265 4.1% 27,785 1.9% 27,971 0.7% PORK 24,941 25,584 26,596 4.0% 27,252 2.5% 27,657 1.5% BROILERS 40,260 41,217 42,147 2.3% 42,619 1.1% 42,870 0.6% TURKEYS 5,905 5,905 5,850

  • 0.9%

5,973 2.1% 6,099 2.1% LAMB 150 145 149 2.8% 148

  • 0.8%

149 0.7% VEAL 76 74 76 2.6% 79 3.5% 81 2.0% TOTAL 96,553 99,113 102,083 3.0% 103,856 1.7% 104,826 0.9%

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 USA Cattle/Beef Supplies

Cattle Inventory Growth Has Slowed Down

  • 21 -

INVENTORY (000 OMITTED) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Ch. vs. 2016 2018 Estimate % Ch. vs. 2017 ALL CATTLE AND CALVES 95,018 96,342 96,573 96,035 94,721 94,081 92,887 91,160 90,095 88,526 89,143 91,918 93,705 94,399 0.7% 94,882 0.5% COW AND HEIFERS THAT HAVE CALVED 41,678 41,806 41,789 41,692 41,127 40,526 40,068 39,517 38,853 38,293 38,609 39,476 40,559 41,123 1.4% 41,305 0.4% BEEF COWS 32,674 32,703 32,644 32,435 31,794 31,440 30,913 30,282 29,631 29,085 29,302 30,166 31,213 31,723 1.6% 31,910 0.6% DAIRY COWS 9,004 9,104 9,145 9,257 9,333 9,087 9,156 9,236 9,221 9,208 9,307 9,310 9,346 9,400 0.6% 9,395 0.0% HEIFERS 500LBS. AND OVER 19,445 19,950 20,074 19,855 19,604 19,778 19,650 19,445 19,256 18,969 19,261 19,907 20,132 20,245 0.6% 20,297 0.3% BEEF COW REPLACEMENT 5,638 5,864 5,835 5,647 5,550 5,443 5,135 5,281 5,429 5,551 6,086 6,340 6,368 6,131

  • 3.7%

5,967

  • 2.7%

DAIRY COW REPALCEMENT 4,117 4,298 4,325 4,415 4,410 4,551 4,577 4,618 4,546 4,549 4,710 4,814 4,754 4,781 0.6% 4,750

  • 0.6%

OTHER HEIFERS 9,690 9,788 9,914 9,793 9,644 9,784 9,938 9,546 9,281 8,869 8,464 8,753 9,010 9,332 3.6% 9,580 2.7% STEERS 500 LBS. AND OVER 16,466 16,988 17,185 17,163 16,809 16,568 16,394 15,957 15,931 15,668 15,630 16,315 16,384 16,352

  • 0.2%

16,450 0.6% BULLS 500 LBS. AND OVER 2,214 2,258 2,214 2,207 2,188 2,190 2,165 2,100 2,074 2,038 2,109 2,142 2,244 2,252 0.4% 2,250

  • 0.1%

HFRS, STRS AND BULLS UNDER 500 LBS 15,215 15,339 15,311 15,118 14,994 15,019 14,610 14,141 13,983 13,558 13,534 14,077 14,386 14,427 0.3% 14,580 1.1% ANNUAL CALF CROP 37,106 37,016 36,759 36,158 35,939 35,740 35,357 34,469 33,730 33,522 34,087 35,093 35,808 36,350 1.5%

JANUARY 1st U. S. CATTLE INVENTORY

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 USA Cattle/Beef Supplies

Four Years into the Current Cycle

  • 22 -

Comparing US Cattle Cycles of the Last +50 Years

Y/Y Change in Cattle Inventories.

  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14

1958 - 1967 1967 - 1979 1979 - 1990 1990 - 2004 2014 - Current # of years from the start of the cycle

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

US Cattle Inventories were +0.7% in 2018 and Forecast +0.5% in 2019

  • 23 -

1958 = 91,176 1975 = 132,028 1990 = 95,816 1996 = 103,548 2004 = 94,403 2007 = 96,573

40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000

TOTAL INVENTORIES, 000 OMITTED

CATTLE INVENTORIES, 000 HEAD, 1920 - 2018 + 2019 Forecast

Jan 1, 2019 94.9 mil head

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cow/Bull Slaughter Capacity

  • 24 -

Daily Cow and Bull Slaughter in the US: 2000 - 2018

Source: USDA-AMS.

25,906

  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

daily slaughter

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cow/Bull Slaughter Capacity

Highest daily cow/bull slaughter in 2018 was ~26,000 head

5.5day week = 26,000 x 5.5 = 143,000

Average slaughter during Oct/Nov/early Dec 2017 = 128,000 head or 89% of capacity

  • 25 -

WEEKLY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER. '000 HEAD

Source: USDA 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5-Yr Avg. 2016 2017 2018

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Steer Weights Have Been Trending Lower on Lighter Calves / Higher Turnover

  • 26 -

650 680 710 740 770 800 830 860 DRESSED WEIGHTS, POUNDS

FI CATTLE AVERAGE DRESSED WEIGHTS: 1990 - 2018

Dressed Carcass Weights. Weekly. USDA

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

US Productivity (feedlot based) vs. Other Key Producers/Exporters

  • 27 -

BEEF KILOGRAM PRODUCED (DRESSED WT.) PER ANIMAL IN THE HERD. ANNUAL

SOURCE: USDA

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0

USA Australia Brazil

  • N. Zealand

Uruguay Argentina

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

US Cattle Volatile But No Longer in Down Trend

  • 28 -
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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Lower Feed Costs, Higher Feeder Values Could Result in Modest Profit in 2019

  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 400 500 600

ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW-CALF RETURNS

Returns over cash costs (includes pasture rent), Annual, US$/cow

forecast

Source: LMIC

  • 29 -
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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Female Slaughter Ratio Indicates Expansion is Slowing Down But Not Over Yet

  • 30 -

Liquidation Rebuilding

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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#4 Cattle/Beef Supplies

Cow Slaughter Outlook for rest of 2017 & in 2018

 Total cow slaughter

for Jan – Aug = 4.108MM head, +8.2% higher than a year ago. Forecast for cow slaughter in 2018 = +7.6% Forecast for cow slaughter in 2019 = +5.8%

  • 31 -
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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Imported Beef

Key Metrics for Major Global Beef Importers

Cattle Population Human Population Cattle/ Person Cattle Slaughter Cattle Sltr./ Cattle Inv. Beef Production

  • Prod. KG /

Cattle Sltr. Beef Exports Beef Exports / Beef Prod.

000 head

  • mil. People

000 head MT, CWE KG, CWE

USA 93,705 326 0.29 35,808 0.38 11,938 333 1,298 11% CANADA 11,520 37 0.31 4,411 0.38 1,175 266 469 40% MEXICO 16,490 124 0.13 7,485 0.45 1,925 257 280 15% AUSTRALIA 24,971 25 1.01 9,050 0.36 2,149 237 1,486 69%

  • N. ZEALAND

10,152 5 2.10 4,714 0.46 654 139 593 91% BRAZIL 226,045 208 1.09 48,735 0.22 9,550 196 1,856 19% URUGUAY 11,864 3 3.40 2,850 0.24 593 208 435 73% ARGENTINA 53,515 44 1.21 14,200 0.27 2,830 199 293 10% INDIA 303,600 1317 0.23 68,200 0.22 4,250 62 1,849 44%

Data source: USDA

  • 32 -
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2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 33 -

BEEF

QUARTERLY SLAUGHTER, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND DISAPPEARANCE

=A x B A B C D E F G =C+D-E+F+G

Year & Quarter Commercial Slaughter Percent Change From Year Ago Average Carcass Weights Percent Change From Year Ago Commercial Meat Production Percent Change From Year Ago Imports Percent Change From Year Ago Exports Percent Change From Year Ago Farm Production Adjustments to Ending Stocks to Balance Total Disappearance Percent Change From Year Ago

(1,000 Head) Lbs. (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.)

2014 1st Qtr. 7,374

  • 5.2%

796 0.3% 5,868

  • 5.0%

597 1.2% 583 4.7% 37

  • 47

5,872

  • 7.0%

2nd Qtr. 7,837

  • 5.9%

789 0.9% 6,184

  • 5.1%

767 22.0% 667 4.9% 17

  • 64

6,237

  • 3.8%

3rd Qtr. 7,632

  • 8.3%

810 1.9% 6,179

  • 6.5%

765 48.5% 680

  • 5.1%

17 27 6,308

  • 1.1%

4th Qtr. 7,326

  • 8.8%

822 2.8% 6,021

  • 6.3%

818 58.5% 644

  • 5.3%

37 91 6,323 0.5% Year 30,170

  • 7.1%

804 1.5% 24,252

  • 5.7%

2,947 31.0% 2,574

  • 0.6%

108 7 24,740

  • 2.9%

2015 1st Qtr. 6,969

  • 5.5%

813 2.2% 5,665

  • 3.5%

877 46.9% 524

  • 10.2%

36 49 6,103 3.9% 2nd Qtr. 7,229

  • 7.8%

810 2.7% 5,856

  • 5.3%

989 28.9% 607

  • 9.1%

17

  • 9

6,246 0.2% 3rd Qtr. 7,291

  • 4.5%

832 2.8% 6,068

  • 1.8%

889 16.3% 542

  • 20.3%

17 25 6,458 2.4% 4th Qtr. 7,263

  • 0.9%

841 2.3% 6,109 1.5% 613

  • 25.1%

595

  • 7.5%

37 27 6,190

  • 2.1%

Year 28,752

  • 4.7%

824 2.5% 23,698

  • 2.3%

3,368 14.3% 2,267

  • 11.9%

107 92 24,998 1.0% 2016 1st Qtr. 7,184 3.1% 826 1.7% 5,938 4.8% 792

  • 9.7%

535 2.2% 37 35 6,266 2.7% 2nd Qtr. 7,631 5.6% 811 0.1% 6,187 5.7% 831

  • 16.0%

621 2.4% 17

  • 30

6,384 2.2% 3rd Qtr. 7,845 7.6% 825

  • 0.9%

6,472 6.6% 751

  • 15.6%

660 21.9% 17

  • 40

6,539 1.3% 4th Qtr. 7,919 9.0% 837

  • 0.5%

6,625 8.4% 638 4.1% 740 24.3% 37 35 6,595 6.5% Year 30,578 6.4% 825 0.1% 25,221 6.4% 3,012

  • 10.6%

2,557 12.8% 108 25,784 3.1% 2017 1st Qtr. 7,714 7.4% 817

  • 1.1%

6,303 6.2% 700

  • 11.7%

653 21.9% 37 35 6,422 2.5% 2nd Qtr. 8,076 5.8% 793

  • 2.2%

6,407 3.5% 812

  • 2.2%

680 9.5% 17

  • 30

6,526 2.2% 3rd Qtr. 8,254 5.2% 816

  • 1.1%

6,736 4.1% 814 8.4% 746 12.9% 17

  • 40

6,781 3.7% 4th Qtr. 8,145 2.9% 828

  • 1.1%

6,742 1.8% 668 4.7% 781 5.5% 17 35 6,681 1.3% Year 32,189 5.3% 814

  • 1.4%

26,187 3.8% 2,993

  • 0.6%

2,860 11.8% 88 26,409 2.4% 2018 1st Qtr. 7,877 2.1% 821 0.5% 6,465 2.6% 722 3.2% 730 11.9% 37 35 6,529 1.7% 2nd Qtr. 8,424 4.3% 798 0.6% 6,724 4.9% 805

  • 0.9%

799 17.5% 17

  • 30

6,717 2.9% * 3rd Qtr. 8,585 4.0% 823 0.9% 7,065 4.9% 780

  • 4.1%

790 5.9% 17

  • 40

7,032 3.7% * 4th Qtr. 8,397 3.1% 835 0.9% 7,011 4.0% 670 0.4% 850 8.8% 38 35 6,904 3.4% * Year 33,282 3.4% 819 0.7% 27,265 4.1% 2,977

  • 0.5%

3,169 10.8% 109 27,182 2.9% 2019 * 1st Qtr. 7,892 0.2% 826 0.6% 6,519 0.8% 730 1.1% 745 2.0% 37 35 6,576 0.7% * 2nd Qtr. 8,517 1.1% 808 1.2% 6,882 2.3% 760

  • 5.6%

805 0.8% 17

  • 30

6,824 1.6% * 3rd Qtr. 8,765 2.1% 830 0.9% 7,275 3.0% 770

  • 1.3%

835 5.7% 17

  • 40

7,187 2.2% * 4th Qtr. 8,464 0.8% 840 0.6% 7,110 1.4% 670 0.0% 865 1.8% 38 35 6,988 1.2% * Year 33,638 1.1% 826 0.8% 27,785 1.9% 2,930

  • 1.6%

3,250 2.6% 109 27,574 1.4% 2020 * 1st Qtr. 7,853

  • 0.5%

829 0.4% 6,510

  • 0.1%

725

  • 0.7%

755 1.3% 37 35 6,552

  • 0.4%

* 2nd Qtr. 8,602 1.0% 815 0.9% 7,011 1.9% 750

  • 1.3%

815 1.2% 17

  • 30

6,933 1.6% * 3rd Qtr. 8,782 0.2% 837 0.8% 7,351 1.0% 745

  • 3.2%

865 3.6% 17

  • 40

7,208 0.3% * 4th Qtr. 8,422

  • 0.5%

843 0.4% 7,100

  • 0.1%

670 0.0% 890 2.9% 38 35 6,953

  • 0.5%

* Year 33,659 0.1% 831 0.6% 27,971 0.7% 2,890

  • 1.4%

3,325 2.3% 109 27,645 0.3%

* Estimates

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SLIDE 35

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Imported Beef Availability

January Inventory trends in Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay & Brazil

  • 34 -
10,368 10,033 10,152 10,146 10,206 10,187 9,600 9,700 9,800 9,900 10,000 10,100 10,200 10,300 10,400 10,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F

NEW ZEALAND CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 1.8%
  • 3.2%
1.2%
  • 0.1%
0.6% 29,102 27,413 24,971 25,500 25,300 25,950 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 30,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F

AUSTRALIA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

000 head
  • 0.6%
  • 5.8%
  • 8.9%
2.1%
  • 0.8%
11,903 12,053 11,950 11,864 11,804 11,934 10,800 11,000 11,200 11,400 11,600 11,800 12,000 12,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

URUGUAY CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

000 head 1.3%
  • 0.9%
  • 0.7%
  • 0.5%
1.1% 213,035 219,180 226,045 232,350 238,145 243,910 150,000 160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000 200,000 210,000 220,000 230,000 240,000 250,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F

BRAZIL CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 51,545 52,565 53,515 53,715 54,215 54,215 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 55,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F

ARGENTINA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% 17,120 16,615 16,490 16,584 16,809 17,156 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F

MEXICO CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head
  • 2.9%
  • 0.8%
0.6% 1.4%
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SLIDE 36

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Imported Beef Availability

Australia Beef Exports to the US & US Market Share

  • 35 -

AUSTRALIAN MONTHLY BEEF SHIPMENTS TO THE US % OF AUSTRALIAN MONTHLY BEEF EXPORTS GOING TO USA

1998 - 2018, metric ton, shipped wt. Source: Australian Department of Water and Agricultural Resources 1998 - 2018, metric ton, shipped wt. Source: Australian Department of Water and Agricultural Resources

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 metric ton, shipped wt.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % of all shipments

slide-37
SLIDE 37

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Brazil Access Status

 Maybe things will change

after the election

 At this point no public

announcements but MICA indicates that USDA will audit Brazil again before making a decision

 With resurgent China

demand, Brazil has expanded exports rapidly despite lack

  • f access to USA market
  • 36 -

Brazilian Exports of Fresh/Frozen Beef to China/Hong Kong and Rest of World (ROW)

Data Source: Comex 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

ROW China/HK

slide-38
SLIDE 38

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Argentina

 USDA has completed review

  • f Argentine system

 Likely no determination until

after the election

 Current political climate

makes it difficult to grant access

 MICA also suggests that US is

waiting for Argentina to approve US beef

 No knowledge when/if

Argentina will be able to ship fresh beef to US in 2019

  • 37 -

Argentine Exports of Fresh/Frozen Beef

Monthly Shipments. Data Source: Indec. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting

  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

China ROW YTD 51.2% Share

slide-39
SLIDE 39

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#5 Ireland

 Shipments to the US market

remain limited

 It is our understanding that

manufacturing beef can be shipped to the US but we are not sure all suppliers have put in place lotting procedures that satisfy USDA requirements

  • 38 -

Imports of Irish Beef into the US

Shipped Weight, MT. USDA 50 100 150 200 250 300

Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov 2015 2016 2017

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SLIDE 40

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 Demand in US Domestic Market

Wealth Effect: Post Recession Recovery

All-Transactions House Price Index

Index 1980: Q1 = 100. Quarterly. Not Seasonally Adjusted 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

  • 39 -

S&P 500 Index

Data updated through: September 19, 2018

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

slide-41
SLIDE 41

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 Demand in US Domestic Market

Willingness to Spend: Depends if you have a job

40

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

percent

USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %

September 2018 3.7% Dec 2019 Forecast 3.6%

95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.0 102.0 103.0 104.0

  • 900
  • 720
  • 540
  • 360
  • 180

180 360 540 720 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

NRA Restaurant Performance Index vs. Monthly Job Gains/Losses

Rest. index Job Gains

monthlyjob gains/losses (L) restaurant index (R)

slide-42
SLIDE 42

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 Demand in US Domestic Market Demand Drivers: Income

  • 41 -

43,819

30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000

2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 '16 '17 '18

Real Per Capita Disposable Income, US$

Latest data is for: August 2018 recession

slide-43
SLIDE 43

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 Demand in US Domestic Market

USA Per Capita Meat Protein Consumption

  • 42 -

200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR

TOTAL BEEF, PORK, POULTRY PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass Wt. Basis)

2018 2019 2020

Forecast

273.9 272.3 273.6

slide-44
SLIDE 44

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 Demand in US Domestic Market

USA Per Capita Beef Consumption

  • 43 -

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR

BEEF PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass wt. Basis)

2018 2019 2020

Forecast

82.8 83.4 83.0

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SLIDE 45

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#6 Demand in US Domestic Market

USA Per Capita Lamb Consumption

  • 44 -

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR

LAMB, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (Carcass wt. Basis)

1.18 1.18 1.18

2018 2019 2020

Forecast

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SLIDE 46

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in Other Markets

China/Hong Kong Are Now the Top Beef Markets in the World 2017 China Imports:

+19.9%

+252k MT

2018 China Imports

+17.3%

+263k MT

  • 45 -

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

TOP GLOBAL BEEF BUYERS. USDA. 000 METRIC TON. CWE

000 mt

China/ Hong Kong USA

RUSSIA JAPAN

slide-47
SLIDE 47

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#7 Demand in Other Markets

China/Hong Kong Share of Key Suppliers

 Brazil:

45% (Jan-Aug)

 Argentina:

52% (Jan-Jul)

 Uruguay:

53% (Jan-Aug)

 Australia:

14% (Jan-Aug)

 New Zealand:

24% (Jan-Aug)

  • 46 -
slide-48
SLIDE 48

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 African Swine Fever

  • 47 -

2005-12 Russia/Soviet Republics/Africa 2012-2018 Eastern Europe/Baltics/China/Belgium

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SLIDE 49

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 African Swine Fever

  • 48 -

Dangerous for people – NO Dangerous for hogs – YES, deadly Easily transmitted - Extremely Is there a vaccine – NO

slide-50
SLIDE 50

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 African Swine Fever World Pork Consumption

  • 49 -

2017 Global Pork Consumption. Selected Countries. Billion Lb. (cwe)

Data Source: USDA-FAS

0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.3 21.0 45.9 120.8 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

El Salvador Bosnia and Herzegovina Cote d'Ivoire Macedonia Montenegro Macau Haiti Congo (Kinshasa) Honduras Panama Uruguay Guatemala Kazakhstan New Zealand Dominican Republic Singapore Norway Cuba Angola Ecuador South Africa Belarus Serbia Chile Colombia Australia Hong Kong Argentina Ukraine Canada Taiwan Philippines Korea, South Mexico Vietnam Japan Brazil Russia United States European Union China

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SLIDE 51

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 African Swine Fever

Global Pork Exporters

  • 50 -
slide-52
SLIDE 52

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 African Swine Fever Exports as % of National Production

  • 51 -
slide-53
SLIDE 53

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Per Capita Consumption of Meat in China & USA

  • 52 -

China Consumption of Beef, Pork, Poultry & Sheep Meat USA Consumption of Beef, Pork, Poultry & Sheep Meat

Source: OECD & FAO. Pounds per Capita. Retail wt. equiv. Source: OECD & FAO. Pounds per Capita. Retail wt. equiv. *** Other includes ducks, geese, lamb, veal, etc.

Beef 8% Pork 61% Poultry Meat 25% Sheep Meat 6% Beef 26% Pork 23% Broiler 42% Turkey 8% Other *** 1%

111

lb./pp

217

lb./pp

slide-54
SLIDE 54

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 53 -

#9 Competing Proteins

Pork Situation and Outlook

Supplies Supplies ( Y/Y Y/Y % change % change)

Pr Producti

  • duction:
  • n:

+4.0% in 2018 +2.5% in 2019 +1.5% in 2020 Ex Expor ports: +5.2% in 2018 +2.7% in 2019 +2.4% in 2020 Pe Per C Capita: +2.4% in 2018 +1.4% in 2019 +0.4% in 2020

23,347 23,000 22,436 22,785 23,253 23,187 22,843 24,501 24,941 25,584 26,596 27,252 27,657

15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PORK PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS

slide-55
SLIDE 55

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 54 -

#9 Competing Proteins

Ratio of Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout

Wholesale Beef Prices Have Returned to More "Normal" Levels Relative to Pork

Ratio of Weekly Choice Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout Value

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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SLIDE 56

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 Competing Proteins

Price Ratio of Ground Beef vs. Pork Chops

  • 55 -

0.40 1.50

  • 0.50

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio

Ratio: 78CL Meat Block / 1/4" Pork Loins, USDA Wt Avg

52wk Mo. Avg. 2009-10 Avg = 1.22

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SLIDE 57

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins Long Run Price of B/S Chicken Breasts

  • 56 -

60 110 160 210 260 310

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LONG TERM PRICE CHART: 1990 -2017

$/cwt

Price History and Forecast for B/S Chicken Breast Price. USDA-AMS. $/cwt

slide-58
SLIDE 58

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 Competing Proteins

Broiler Situation and Outlook

36,511 35,131 36,523 36,803 36,641 37,425 38,154 39,636 40,260 41,217 42,147 42,619 42,870

30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MILLION POUNDS

BROILER PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS

  • 57 -

Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group

Supplies Supplies ( Y/Y Y/Y % change % change)

Pr Producti

  • duction:
  • n:

+2.3% in 2018 +1.1% in 2019 +0.6% in 2020 Ex Expor ports: +3.1% in 2018 +3.4% in 2019 +2.3% in 2020 Pe Per C Capita: +1.4% in 2018 +0.0% in 2019

  • 0.5% in 2020
slide-59
SLIDE 59

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#8 Competing Proteins

Ground Beef vs. Chicken Breasts

  • 58 -

Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group

78CL Meat Block = 70% 90CL Boneless Beef, Central, Fresh, USDA, Wt. Avg. + 30% 50CL Beef Trim, Fresh, National, USDA, Wt. Avg. Chicken Breast = USDA N.E. Broiler Breast Boneless, Skinless, Wt. Avg.

1.59

  • 0.50

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio

Ratio: 78CL Meat Block / Bnls Skinless Chicken Breast

52wk Mo. Avg.

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SLIDE 60

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

# Competing Proteins Broiler Supplies

  • 59 -

50,000 51,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 55,000 56,000 57,000 58,000 59,000 60,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

LAYERS ON 1ST OF MONTH: BROILER TYPE HATCHING

'000

2016 2017 2015 5-Yr. Avg.

Source: USDA/NASSChicken and Eggs Monthly Report

2018

US WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS

Source: USDA Broiler Hatchery Report

185,000 195,000 205,000 215,000 225,000 235,000 245,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5 Yr. Avg (2012-16) 2017 2018

1000 eggs

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SLIDE 61

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#10 USA Lamb Market Situation

US Lamb Inventories Remain Flat

  • 60 -

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

US LAMB INVENTORY

mil head

slide-62
SLIDE 62

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#10 US Lamb Market Situation

Sheep and Lamb Slaughter Higher in July and August

  • 61 -

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center

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SLIDE 63

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 62 -

#10 US Lamb Market Situation Domestic Lamb Prices Down 15% in August

Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD Basis

Monthly Average Prices, 90-115 lb., $ per 100 lb.

100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr. Avg. 2017 2018

slide-64
SLIDE 64

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#10 USA Lamb Market Situation

Imports Share at All Time Record High: 63.4% of Supply

  • 63 -

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Domestic Lamb Production + Imports

mil lb.

US domestic production Imports

slide-65
SLIDE 65

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

#9 USA Lamb Market Situation Lamb Trade Flows so Far in 2018

  • 64 -

YTD Imports = 69,554 MT Jan-Jul, +9%

  • 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Australia New Zealand Canada Chile Uruguay United Kingdom Ireland Brazil Other

USA LAMB IMPORTS, USDA, MT, PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS

  • 64%
  • 40%
  • 0.2

19%

  • 11%
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SLIDE 66

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

  • 65 -

CURRENT FORECAST

slide-67
SLIDE 67

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Forecast Performance for 90CL Dom/Imp

  • 66 -

2013 Forecast 2013 Actual 2014 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2014 Actual Y/Y ch. 2015 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2015 Actual Y/Y ch. 2016 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2016 Actual Y/Y ch. 2017 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2017 Actual Y/Y ch. 2018 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2018 Actual Y/Y ch. Domestic 90CL Q1 243 214 225 5% 239 11% 321 34% 296 24% 250

  • 16%

210

  • 29%

200

  • 4%

209 0% 225 8% 215 3% Q2 248 203 229 13% 248 22% 311 25% 295 19% 245

  • 17%

218

  • 26%

196

  • 10%

224 3% 225 1% 219

  • 2%

Q3 241 203 218 8% 295 45% 297 1% 281

  • 5%

233

  • 17%

212

  • 25%

189

  • 11%

230 9% 225

  • 2%

213

  • 7%

Q4 224 195 204 5% 296 52% 286

  • 3%

214

  • 28%

219 2% 192

  • 10%

178

  • 8%

213 10% 216 2% 208

  • 2%

Annual 239 204 219 8% 269 32% 304 13% 272 1% 237

  • 13%

208

  • 24%

191

  • 8%

219 5% 223 2% 214

  • 2%

Imported 90CL Q1 210 214 212

  • 1%

213

  • 1%

319 50% 245 15% 250 2% 201

  • 18%

200 0% 213 6% 225 5% 217 2% Q2 225 197 221 12% 217 10% 302 39% 237 9% 245 4% 206

  • 13%

196

  • 5%

226 10% 225 0% 210

  • 7%

Q3 225 193 215 12% 281 46% 293 4% 244

  • 13%

233

  • 5%

211

  • 14%

189

  • 10%

221 5% 225 2% 203

  • 8%

Q4 217 203 213 5% 284 40% 303 7% 207

  • 27%

219 6% 208 0% 178

  • 14%

217 4% 216 0% 207

  • 4%

Annual 219 202 215 7% 249 23% 304 22% 233

  • 6%

237 2% 206

  • 11%

191

  • 8%

219 6% 223 2% 209

  • 5%

2017 Presentation 2013 Presentation 2012 Presentation 2014 Presentation 2015 Presentation 2016 Presentation

slide-68
SLIDE 68

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2018 and 2019

  • 67 -

Sep 28, 2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

LIVE STEERS FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 137.69 138.40 130.31 128.89 133.82 2017 HISTORY 121.88 131.32 112.62 116.42 120.56 2018 HISTORY 110.47 125.42 116.36 110.11 2018 FORECAST 116.33 117.05 % CHANGE FROM 2017 2.9%

  • 11.4%
  • 2.2%
  • 0.1%
  • 2.9%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 8.9%
  • 15.9%
  • 15.5%
  • 9.7%
  • 12.5%

2019 FORECAST 122.00 120.67 114.00 118.33 118.75 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 2.7%

3.7% 3.5% 1.7% 1.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 11.4%
  • 12.8%
  • 12.5%
  • 8.2%
  • 11.3%

90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 233.64 237.58 243.95 221.96 234.28 2017 HISTORY 208.98 223.54 229.71 212.66 218.72 2018 HISTORY 192.92 215.22 219.22 209.94 2018 FORECAST 195.33 209.93 % CHANGE FROM 2017 3.0%

  • 1.9%
  • 8.6%
  • 8.1%
  • 4.0%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 7.9%
  • 7.7%
  • 13.9%
  • 12.0%
  • 10.4%

2019 FORECAST 214.00 214.00 218.00 212.00 214.50 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 0.6%
  • 2.4%

3.8% 8.5% 2.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 8.4%
  • 9.9%
  • 10.6%
  • 4.5%
  • 8.4%
slide-69
SLIDE 69

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2018 and 2019

Sep 28, 2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 88.33 104.41 84.98 71.44 87.29 2017 HISTORY 78.14 138.04 68.84 60.12 86.28 2018 HISTORY 43.65 82.38 82.29 67.61 2018 FORECAST 54.00 71.57 % CHANGE FROM 2017 5.4%

  • 40.4%
  • 1.8%
  • 10.2%
  • 17.1%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 6.7%
  • 21.2%
  • 20.4%
  • 24.4%
  • 18.0%

2019 FORECAST 78.33 92.33 76.00 68.00 78.67 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 4.9%

12.2% 12.4% 25.9% 9.9% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 11.3%
  • 11.6%
  • 10.6%
  • 4.8%
  • 9.9%

7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 217.26 216.74 229.91 223.73 221.91 2017 HISTORY 213.44 226.38 221.09 216.64 219.39 2018 HISTORY 193.00 217.42 209.69 200.68 2018 FORECAST 193.67 205.36 % CHANGE FROM 2017 1.9%

  • 7.4%
  • 9.2%
  • 10.6%
  • 6.4%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 0.1%

  • 3.3%
  • 12.7%
  • 13.4%
  • 7.5%

2019 FORECAST 199.33 203.00 212.00 216.33 207.67 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 8.3%
  • 3.2%

5.6% 11.7% 1.1% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 8.3%
  • 6.3%
  • 7.8%
  • 3.3%
  • 6.4%
  • 68 -
slide-70
SLIDE 70

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2018 and 2019

  • 69 -

Sep 28, 2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

NATIONAL WHOLE BIRD PRICE, USDA, WTD AVG 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 94.36 104.86 91.78 87.46 94.61 2017 HISTORY 88.41 104.66 95.09 86.06 93.56 2018 HISTORY 82.59 95.62 115.08 93.72 2018 FORECAST 84.33 97.19 % CHANGE FROM 2017 8.2% 10.0%

  • 1.4%
  • 2.0%

3.9% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 1.3% 9.7% 2.1%

  • 3.6%

2.7% 2019 FORECAST 90.00 99.67 90.67 87.33 91.92 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 5.9%
  • 13.4%
  • 3.3%

3.6%

  • 5.4%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 4.6%
  • 5.0%
  • 1.2%
  • 0.1%
  • 2.9%

N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 126.87 158.39 155.37 119.16 139.95 2017 HISTORY 111.38 148.96 145.10 108.96 128.60 2018 HISTORY 95.41 114.28 127.09 112.57 2018 FORECAST 90.00 110.99 % CHANGE FROM 2017 2.6%

  • 14.7%
  • 22.4%
  • 17.4%
  • 13.7%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 9.9%
  • 19.8%
  • 27.6%
  • 24.5%
  • 20.7%

2019 FORECAST 106.33 136.00 137.33 105.67 121.33 % CHANGE FROM 2018

  • 7.0%

7.0% 22.0% 17.4% 9.3% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 16.2%
  • 14.1%
  • 11.6%
  • 11.3%
  • 13.3%
slide-71
SLIDE 71

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2018 and 2019

  • 70 -

Sep 28, 2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

USDA, Carcass Cutout, FOB Plant 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 83.71 92.14 94.96 84.14 88.74 2017 HISTORY 81.49 85.15 90.94 78.53 84.03 2018 HISTORY 80.08 77.45 74.83 74.89 2018 FORECAST 76.00 75.79 % CHANGE FROM 2017

  • 5.0%
  • 12.1%
  • 17.6%
  • 3.2%
  • 9.8%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 7.5%
  • 18.8%
  • 21.1%
  • 9.7%
  • 14.6%

2019 FORECAST 78.00 83.67 88.00 78.67 82.08 % CHANGE FROM 2018 0.7% 11.8% 17.5% 3.5% 8.3% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 6.8%
  • 9.2%
  • 7.3%
  • 6.5%
  • 7.5%

IA/MN, Base Market Hog 185 lb Carcass Basis, Plant Dlv., WT. AVG, 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 73.19 84.14 83.11 66.61 76.76 2017 HISTORY 66.23 69.41 71.01 58.72 66.34 2018 HISTORY 62.98 64.02 64.72 55.15 2018 FORECAST 55.67 59.89 % CHANGE FROM 2017

  • 3.3%
  • 6.8%
  • 22.3%
  • 5.2%
  • 9.7%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 12.5%
  • 23.1%
  • 33.6%
  • 16.4%
  • 22.0%

2019 FORECAST 66.33 75.00 74.33 59.33 68.75 % CHANGE FROM 2018 3.6% 15.9% 34.8% 6.6% 14.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 9.4%
  • 10.9%
  • 10.6%
  • 10.9%
  • 10.4%
slide-72
SLIDE 72

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Price Forecasts: 2018 and 2019

  • 71 -

Sep 28, 2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual

TOM TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 16-22LBS, TOP, 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 107.15 110.91 116.40 116.51 112.74 2017 HISTORY 106.33 107.00 107.00 97.62 104.49 2018 HISTORY 89.00 86.00 87.67 89.00 2018 FORECAST 91.67 88.58 % CHANGE FROM 2017

  • 19.1%
  • 18.1%
  • 16.8%
  • 6.1%
  • 15.2%

% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 19.7%
  • 21.0%
  • 23.5%
  • 21.3%
  • 21.4%

2019 FORECAST 90.33 96.00 102.00 105.33 98.42 % CHANGE FROM 2018 5.0% 9.5% 14.6% 14.9% 11.1% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 15.7%
  • 13.4%
  • 12.4%
  • 9.6%
  • 12.7%

UB BONELESS-SKINLESS TURKEY BREAST, TOM, FRESH, TOP, 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 257.26 253.30 303.10 307.74 280.35 2017 HISTORY 160.08 153.17 153.00 155.00 155.31 2018 HISTORY 211.00 155.83 182.50 198.25 2018 FORECAST 215.00 187.90 % CHANGE FROM 2017

  • 2.7%

19.2% 29.6% 38.7% 21.0% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 39.4%
  • 28.0%
  • 34.6%
  • 30.1%
  • 33.0%

2019 FORECAST 196.67 208.67 254.00 262.33 230.42 % CHANGE FROM 2018 26.2% 14.3% 28.1% 22.0% 22.6% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.

  • 23.6%
  • 17.6%
  • 16.2%
  • 14.8%
  • 17.8%
slide-73
SLIDE 73

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Live Cattle Prices

70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER

5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 72 -
slide-74
SLIDE 74

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

US Domestic 90CL Boneless Beef Prices

170.00 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00 250.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA

5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 73 -
slide-75
SLIDE 75

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

US Domestic 50CL Beef Trim

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA

5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 74 -
slide-76
SLIDE 76

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Imported 90CL Australian Beef

180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET

5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 75 -
slide-77
SLIDE 77

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Spread, Domestic - Imported

  • 10.00
  • 5.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

DOMESTIC 90CL FRESH, FOB CENTRAL US MINUS 90CL IMPORTED, FROZEN, FOB US EAST COAST

5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 76 -
slide-78
SLIDE 78

2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612

Whole Broiler Prices

70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00 160.00 170.00

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA

5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST

US$/CWT

  • 77 -