Presented by: Len Steiner
Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612
supporting and promoting imported meat
2018 Annual General Meeting & Conference
Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood, FL
October 8 - 11, 2018
Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2018 Annual General Meeting & Conference Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood, FL October 8 - 11, 2018 supporting and promoting imported meat Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612 Main Discussion Points
Presented by: Len Steiner
Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612
supporting and promoting imported meat
2018 Annual General Meeting & Conference
Diplomat Beach Resort, Hollywood, FL
October 8 - 11, 2018
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1: Economic Situation in US and World #2: Currency Markets #3: Feed Input Costs #4: Cattle Supplies in USA, Canada and Mexico #5: Product Availability from Importing Partners
#6: Demand in US Domestic Market #7: Demand in Other Markets (Competition)
Trade War, African Swine Fever #8: Supplies of Competing Proteins #9: US Lamb Business #10: Price Forecasts
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Canada: robust growth in Q1. Export growth remains a weak point USA: job market recovery continues. Growth rebounded in Q2 and expansion remains on track EU Impact of Brexit starting to be felt in
expanding and even South is recovering Brazil: Two consecutive quarters of positive growth. Argentina: Continued improvement in business conditions and higher commodity prices bolstering growth
India: Growth has slowed but expansion remains on track
New Zealand: Low unemployment, higher inflation, more growth Japan: Modest inflation and weaker Yen is supportive China: Growth has recovered. Consumer spending accelerated in last two quarters, which is key as economy relies less on heavy industry Russia: Finally out of recession economy slowly recovering. GDP +0.3%, inflation down to 4%
Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner
Mexico: GDP growth was 2.8% in Q1, up from 2.3% in previous quarter
Australia: Q2 growth was up 0.8%, a much faster pace than the previous quarter.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
3
Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner
India:
Economy has recovered as impact from demonetization has faded.
Canada: Q2 growth accelerated to 2.9% from 1.3% in Q1. Negotiations with USA continue over a revised NAFTA. That remains a key risk USA: US GDP revised higher in Q2 and low unemployment should continue to bolster wages/spending. Mexico: GDP improved to 2.6% in Q2 compared to 1.3% in Q1. Unemployment rate increased to 3.5% but remains below year ago levels Argentina: GDP growth declined a stunning 4.2% in Q2 compared to +3.6% in
index continues to head lower and unemployment is now 9.1% compared to 7% at the end of last year Brazil: Growth estimates have been revised lower following the trucker strike and election uncertainty. Unemployment rate has been trending lower, however. EU Brexit negotiations are approaching some key deadlines and no deal appears imminent. Russia: The Russian economy has recovered from the impact of sanctions and expanded 1.3% in Q1 compared to 0.9% in late 2017. Japan: Q2 growth was higher than expected and surprised the
private investment supported growth China: Exports remain resilient despite trade war with USA but risks are heavily weighted to the
markets are down 20% YTD New Zealand: Q2 growth numbers have yet to be released by expectations are for more robust growth as export pace accelerated
Australia: GDP growth in Q2 was +0.9% compared to +1% in the previous quarter but still much faster than in 2016 and 2017.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Global Economic Growth Expected to Further Expand in 2019
Source: Moody's Economy.com
World
Euro Asia Oceania
2015 2.7 2.7
2.0 4.5 2.5 2016 2.4 1.6
1.9 4.7 2.8 2017 3.1 2.3 0.4 2.5 5.0 2.3 2018 Fcst previous 3.1 2.9 1.1 2.2 4.7 2.7 revised 3.2 2.8 0.8 2.1 4.9 3.2 2019 Fcst previous 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.9 4.5 2.7 revised 3.0 2.6 1.7 2.0 4.7 2.7 Last update: September 12, 2018
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
World
Euro Asia Oceania
REAL GDP GROWTH %
GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK
2015 2016 2017 2018 Fcst 2019 Fcst
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Positives
Negatives
volatility
* Forecast: Moody’s
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 % ch.
ANNUAL USA GROWTH RATE OF GDP
Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate
forecast
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Florence impacted growth.
million jobs since the start of the year.
200 400 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
THOUSAND JOBS
NEW JOB CREATION: NON AGRICULTURAL, 000's
Data Updated through September 2018
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
percent
USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %
September 2018 3.7% Dec 2019 Forecast 3.6%
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Foodservice dollar sales have increased sharply this year, a sign of the booming economy but also rising price inflation in the segment. Grocery dollar sales were also higher this year
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
GROCERY STORE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.
Latest Data is for August 2018
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.
Latest Data is for August 2018
Source: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Foodservice, US Census Bureau
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.
Latest Data is for August 2018
Same Store Sales - August 2018 vs. August 2017, Tracking Survey Responses by Industry Segment Source: National Restaurant Association Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Limited Service Quick Casual Higher Sales 50% 52% 77% 63% 58% Lower Sales 25% 24% 10% 31% 0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% SAME STORE SALES
Source: US Census Source: National Restaurant Association
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Foodservice inflation reflects higher labor/operational costs
Data updated through: August 2018
Food CPI Comparisons. Jan 2008 = 100
Source: BLS. Analysis by Steiner.
95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Food at Limited Service Restaurants Food away from home Food at Home
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Dollar vs. Currencies of Top Meat Trading Partners
% change in the last 12 months (Oct. 2017 - Sep. 2018)
90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 135%
Oct '17 Nov '17 Dec '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 Jul '18 Aug '18 Sep '18 Oct '18
USD/BRL
USD/EURO
USD/NZD USD/AUD USD/CAD USD/Peso
Positive for US imports Negative for US exports Negative for US imports Positive for US exports
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US $200 cwt US $190/cwt
100 150 200 250 300 350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF)
Prices in US$/cwt
USD/cwt
Pricein USD
Oct 2012 Current
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
$265/cwt $190/cwt
100 150 200 250 300 350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF East Coast).
Prices in US$/cwt and AUD/cwt
USD/cwt
Pricein USD and AUD
AUD/cwt
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Corn yields: 2012 – 123.1 bu. 2018 – 181.3 bu. =
CORN YIELDS SINCE 1990 AND 2018-19 USDA FORECASTED YIELDS
Corn Yields Since 1990. Latest USDA Forecast is from September 2018 WASDE
2018 USDA Est.
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180
2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 not included in trend 1990 - 2017 Linear Trend 2017
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
93.5 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 million acres
US CORN PLANTED ACRES
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Record Yield Higher feed use Lower s/u ratio implies modest price increase
2016/17 2017/18 USDA Actual USDA Est USDA Aug Est USDA Sep Est vs. 2016/17 vs. 2017/18 . Planted 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.1
Harvested 86.7 82.7 81.8 81.8
Yield per harvested acre 174.6 176.6 178.4 181.3 3.8% 2.7% Beginning stocks 1,737 2,293 2,027 2,002 15.3%
Production 15,148 14,604 14,586 14,827
1.5% Imports 57 40 50 50
25.0% Supply, total 16,942 16,937 16,664 16,879
Feed and residual 5,470 5,450 5,525 5,575 1.9% 2.3% Ethanol for fuel 5,432 5,600 5,625 5,625 3.6% 0.4% Food, seed and residual 1,453 1,460 1,480 1,505 3.6% 3.1% Domestic use, total 12,355 12,510 12,630 12,705 2.8% 1.6% Exports 2,294 2,425 2,350 2,400 4.6%
Use, total 14,649 14,935 14,980 15,105 3.1% 1.1% Ending stocks 2,293 2,002 1,684
1,774
3.36 3.40 3.10-4.10 3.00-4.00 4.2% 2.9% Ending Stocks/Use 15.7% 13.4% 11.2%
11.7%
Source: USDA Monthly WASDE Report.
** Corn crop marketing year starts September 1. % Change 2018/19
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 MIL BU.
CORN USED FOR ETHANOL PRODUCTION IN USA
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% % OF TOAL USE
CORN USED FOR ETHANOL AS % OF TOTAL USE
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
The difference between 123.1 bu/acre and 181.3 bu/acre = more than double the price
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Amount of corn going into livestock/poultry consumption is at highest point in 10 years
5,128 4,309 5,575 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 million bu.
US CORN GOING INTO LIVESTOCK & POULTRY FEED (+ residual)
2018-19 2008-09
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Combined USA Beef, Pork, Broiler and Turkey Production
Million Pounds. Carcass Wt. Basis. USDA Actual + Steiner Forecasts 90,929 104,597 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000
+16%
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2016 2017 2018 % CH. 2019 % CH. 2020 % CH.
BEEF 25,221 26,187 27,265 4.1% 27,785 1.9% 27,971 0.7% PORK 24,941 25,584 26,596 4.0% 27,252 2.5% 27,657 1.5% BROILERS 40,260 41,217 42,147 2.3% 42,619 1.1% 42,870 0.6% TURKEYS 5,905 5,905 5,850
5,973 2.1% 6,099 2.1% LAMB 150 145 149 2.8% 148
149 0.7% VEAL 76 74 76 2.6% 79 3.5% 81 2.0% TOTAL 96,553 99,113 102,083 3.0% 103,856 1.7% 104,826 0.9%
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
INVENTORY (000 OMITTED) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Ch. vs. 2016 2018 Estimate % Ch. vs. 2017 ALL CATTLE AND CALVES 95,018 96,342 96,573 96,035 94,721 94,081 92,887 91,160 90,095 88,526 89,143 91,918 93,705 94,399 0.7% 94,882 0.5% COW AND HEIFERS THAT HAVE CALVED 41,678 41,806 41,789 41,692 41,127 40,526 40,068 39,517 38,853 38,293 38,609 39,476 40,559 41,123 1.4% 41,305 0.4% BEEF COWS 32,674 32,703 32,644 32,435 31,794 31,440 30,913 30,282 29,631 29,085 29,302 30,166 31,213 31,723 1.6% 31,910 0.6% DAIRY COWS 9,004 9,104 9,145 9,257 9,333 9,087 9,156 9,236 9,221 9,208 9,307 9,310 9,346 9,400 0.6% 9,395 0.0% HEIFERS 500LBS. AND OVER 19,445 19,950 20,074 19,855 19,604 19,778 19,650 19,445 19,256 18,969 19,261 19,907 20,132 20,245 0.6% 20,297 0.3% BEEF COW REPLACEMENT 5,638 5,864 5,835 5,647 5,550 5,443 5,135 5,281 5,429 5,551 6,086 6,340 6,368 6,131
5,967
DAIRY COW REPALCEMENT 4,117 4,298 4,325 4,415 4,410 4,551 4,577 4,618 4,546 4,549 4,710 4,814 4,754 4,781 0.6% 4,750
OTHER HEIFERS 9,690 9,788 9,914 9,793 9,644 9,784 9,938 9,546 9,281 8,869 8,464 8,753 9,010 9,332 3.6% 9,580 2.7% STEERS 500 LBS. AND OVER 16,466 16,988 17,185 17,163 16,809 16,568 16,394 15,957 15,931 15,668 15,630 16,315 16,384 16,352
16,450 0.6% BULLS 500 LBS. AND OVER 2,214 2,258 2,214 2,207 2,188 2,190 2,165 2,100 2,074 2,038 2,109 2,142 2,244 2,252 0.4% 2,250
HFRS, STRS AND BULLS UNDER 500 LBS 15,215 15,339 15,311 15,118 14,994 15,019 14,610 14,141 13,983 13,558 13,534 14,077 14,386 14,427 0.3% 14,580 1.1% ANNUAL CALF CROP 37,106 37,016 36,759 36,158 35,939 35,740 35,357 34,469 33,730 33,522 34,087 35,093 35,808 36,350 1.5%
JANUARY 1st U. S. CATTLE INVENTORY
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Comparing US Cattle Cycles of the Last +50 Years
Y/Y Change in Cattle Inventories.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14
1958 - 1967 1967 - 1979 1979 - 1990 1990 - 2004 2014 - Current # of years from the start of the cycle
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Cattle Inventories were +0.7% in 2018 and Forecast +0.5% in 2019
1958 = 91,176 1975 = 132,028 1990 = 95,816 1996 = 103,548 2004 = 94,403 2007 = 96,573
40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000
TOTAL INVENTORIES, 000 OMITTED
CATTLE INVENTORIES, 000 HEAD, 1920 - 2018 + 2019 Forecast
Jan 1, 2019 94.9 mil head
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Daily Cow and Bull Slaughter in the US: 2000 - 2018
Source: USDA-AMS.
25,906
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
daily slaughter
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Highest daily cow/bull slaughter in 2018 was ~26,000 head
5.5day week = 26,000 x 5.5 = 143,000
Average slaughter during Oct/Nov/early Dec 2017 = 128,000 head or 89% of capacity
WEEKLY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER. '000 HEAD
Source: USDA 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr Avg. 2016 2017 2018
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Steer Weights Have Been Trending Lower on Lighter Calves / Higher Turnover
650 680 710 740 770 800 830 860 DRESSED WEIGHTS, POUNDS
FI CATTLE AVERAGE DRESSED WEIGHTS: 1990 - 2018
Dressed Carcass Weights. Weekly. USDA
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Productivity (feedlot based) vs. Other Key Producers/Exporters
BEEF KILOGRAM PRODUCED (DRESSED WT.) PER ANIMAL IN THE HERD. ANNUAL
SOURCE: USDA
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
USA Australia Brazil
Uruguay Argentina
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Lower Feed Costs, Higher Feeder Values Could Result in Modest Profit in 2019
100 200 300 400 500 600
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW-CALF RETURNS
Returns over cash costs (includes pasture rent), Annual, US$/cow
forecast
Source: LMIC
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Female Slaughter Ratio Indicates Expansion is Slowing Down But Not Over Yet
Liquidation Rebuilding
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Total cow slaughter
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Cattle Population Human Population Cattle/ Person Cattle Slaughter Cattle Sltr./ Cattle Inv. Beef Production
Cattle Sltr. Beef Exports Beef Exports / Beef Prod.
000 head
000 head MT, CWE KG, CWE
USA 93,705 326 0.29 35,808 0.38 11,938 333 1,298 11% CANADA 11,520 37 0.31 4,411 0.38 1,175 266 469 40% MEXICO 16,490 124 0.13 7,485 0.45 1,925 257 280 15% AUSTRALIA 24,971 25 1.01 9,050 0.36 2,149 237 1,486 69%
10,152 5 2.10 4,714 0.46 654 139 593 91% BRAZIL 226,045 208 1.09 48,735 0.22 9,550 196 1,856 19% URUGUAY 11,864 3 3.40 2,850 0.24 593 208 435 73% ARGENTINA 53,515 44 1.21 14,200 0.27 2,830 199 293 10% INDIA 303,600 1317 0.23 68,200 0.22 4,250 62 1,849 44%
Data source: USDA
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
BEEF
QUARTERLY SLAUGHTER, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND DISAPPEARANCE
=A x B A B C D E F G =C+D-E+F+G
Year & Quarter Commercial Slaughter Percent Change From Year Ago Average Carcass Weights Percent Change From Year Ago Commercial Meat Production Percent Change From Year Ago Imports Percent Change From Year Ago Exports Percent Change From Year Ago Farm Production Adjustments to Ending Stocks to Balance Total Disappearance Percent Change From Year Ago
(1,000 Head) Lbs. (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.) (Million Lbs.)
2014 1st Qtr. 7,374
796 0.3% 5,868
597 1.2% 583 4.7% 37
5,872
2nd Qtr. 7,837
789 0.9% 6,184
767 22.0% 667 4.9% 17
6,237
3rd Qtr. 7,632
810 1.9% 6,179
765 48.5% 680
17 27 6,308
4th Qtr. 7,326
822 2.8% 6,021
818 58.5% 644
37 91 6,323 0.5% Year 30,170
804 1.5% 24,252
2,947 31.0% 2,574
108 7 24,740
2015 1st Qtr. 6,969
813 2.2% 5,665
877 46.9% 524
36 49 6,103 3.9% 2nd Qtr. 7,229
810 2.7% 5,856
989 28.9% 607
17
6,246 0.2% 3rd Qtr. 7,291
832 2.8% 6,068
889 16.3% 542
17 25 6,458 2.4% 4th Qtr. 7,263
841 2.3% 6,109 1.5% 613
595
37 27 6,190
Year 28,752
824 2.5% 23,698
3,368 14.3% 2,267
107 92 24,998 1.0% 2016 1st Qtr. 7,184 3.1% 826 1.7% 5,938 4.8% 792
535 2.2% 37 35 6,266 2.7% 2nd Qtr. 7,631 5.6% 811 0.1% 6,187 5.7% 831
621 2.4% 17
6,384 2.2% 3rd Qtr. 7,845 7.6% 825
6,472 6.6% 751
660 21.9% 17
6,539 1.3% 4th Qtr. 7,919 9.0% 837
6,625 8.4% 638 4.1% 740 24.3% 37 35 6,595 6.5% Year 30,578 6.4% 825 0.1% 25,221 6.4% 3,012
2,557 12.8% 108 25,784 3.1% 2017 1st Qtr. 7,714 7.4% 817
6,303 6.2% 700
653 21.9% 37 35 6,422 2.5% 2nd Qtr. 8,076 5.8% 793
6,407 3.5% 812
680 9.5% 17
6,526 2.2% 3rd Qtr. 8,254 5.2% 816
6,736 4.1% 814 8.4% 746 12.9% 17
6,781 3.7% 4th Qtr. 8,145 2.9% 828
6,742 1.8% 668 4.7% 781 5.5% 17 35 6,681 1.3% Year 32,189 5.3% 814
26,187 3.8% 2,993
2,860 11.8% 88 26,409 2.4% 2018 1st Qtr. 7,877 2.1% 821 0.5% 6,465 2.6% 722 3.2% 730 11.9% 37 35 6,529 1.7% 2nd Qtr. 8,424 4.3% 798 0.6% 6,724 4.9% 805
799 17.5% 17
6,717 2.9% * 3rd Qtr. 8,585 4.0% 823 0.9% 7,065 4.9% 780
790 5.9% 17
7,032 3.7% * 4th Qtr. 8,397 3.1% 835 0.9% 7,011 4.0% 670 0.4% 850 8.8% 38 35 6,904 3.4% * Year 33,282 3.4% 819 0.7% 27,265 4.1% 2,977
3,169 10.8% 109 27,182 2.9% 2019 * 1st Qtr. 7,892 0.2% 826 0.6% 6,519 0.8% 730 1.1% 745 2.0% 37 35 6,576 0.7% * 2nd Qtr. 8,517 1.1% 808 1.2% 6,882 2.3% 760
805 0.8% 17
6,824 1.6% * 3rd Qtr. 8,765 2.1% 830 0.9% 7,275 3.0% 770
835 5.7% 17
7,187 2.2% * 4th Qtr. 8,464 0.8% 840 0.6% 7,110 1.4% 670 0.0% 865 1.8% 38 35 6,988 1.2% * Year 33,638 1.1% 826 0.8% 27,785 1.9% 2,930
3,250 2.6% 109 27,574 1.4% 2020 * 1st Qtr. 7,853
829 0.4% 6,510
725
755 1.3% 37 35 6,552
* 2nd Qtr. 8,602 1.0% 815 0.9% 7,011 1.9% 750
815 1.2% 17
6,933 1.6% * 3rd Qtr. 8,782 0.2% 837 0.8% 7,351 1.0% 745
865 3.6% 17
7,208 0.3% * 4th Qtr. 8,422
843 0.4% 7,100
670 0.0% 890 2.9% 38 35 6,953
* Year 33,659 0.1% 831 0.6% 27,971 0.7% 2,890
3,325 2.3% 109 27,645 0.3%
* Estimates
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
January Inventory trends in Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay & Brazil
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
NEW ZEALAND CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 1.8%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
AUSTRALIA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
000 head2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
URUGUAY CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
000 head 1.3%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
BRAZIL CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 51,545 52,565 53,515 53,715 54,215 54,215 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 55,0002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
ARGENTINA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% 17,120 16,615 16,490 16,584 16,809 17,156 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,0002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
MEXICO CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKS
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 000 head2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
AUSTRALIAN MONTHLY BEEF SHIPMENTS TO THE US % OF AUSTRALIAN MONTHLY BEEF EXPORTS GOING TO USA
1998 - 2018, metric ton, shipped wt. Source: Australian Department of Water and Agricultural Resources 1998 - 2018, metric ton, shipped wt. Source: Australian Department of Water and Agricultural Resources
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 metric ton, shipped wt.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % of all shipments
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Maybe things will change
after the election
At this point no public
announcements but MICA indicates that USDA will audit Brazil again before making a decision
With resurgent China
demand, Brazil has expanded exports rapidly despite lack
Brazilian Exports of Fresh/Frozen Beef to China/Hong Kong and Rest of World (ROW)
Data Source: Comex 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ROW China/HK
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
USDA has completed review
Likely no determination until
after the election
Current political climate
makes it difficult to grant access
MICA also suggests that US is
waiting for Argentina to approve US beef
No knowledge when/if
Argentina will be able to ship fresh beef to US in 2019
Argentine Exports of Fresh/Frozen Beef
Monthly Shipments. Data Source: Indec. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
China ROW YTD 51.2% Share
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Shipments to the US market
remain limited
It is our understanding that
manufacturing beef can be shipped to the US but we are not sure all suppliers have put in place lotting procedures that satisfy USDA requirements
Imports of Irish Beef into the US
Shipped Weight, MT. USDA 50 100 150 200 250 300
Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov Jan MarMay Jul Sep Nov 2015 2016 2017
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
All-Transactions House Price Index
Index 1980: Q1 = 100. Quarterly. Not Seasonally Adjusted 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
S&P 500 Index
Data updated through: September 19, 2018
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
40
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
percent
USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %
September 2018 3.7% Dec 2019 Forecast 3.6%
95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.0 102.0 103.0 104.0
180 360 540 720 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NRA Restaurant Performance Index vs. Monthly Job Gains/Losses
Rest. index Job Gains
monthlyjob gains/losses (L) restaurant index (R)
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
43,819
30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 '16 '17 '18
Real Per Capita Disposable Income, US$
Latest data is for: August 2018 recession
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR
TOTAL BEEF, PORK, POULTRY PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass Wt. Basis)
2018 2019 2020
Forecast
273.9 272.3 273.6
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR
BEEF PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass wt. Basis)
2018 2019 2020
Forecast
82.8 83.4 83.0
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 POUNDS PER PERSON PER YEAR
LAMB, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (Carcass wt. Basis)
1.18 1.18 1.18
2018 2019 2020
Forecast
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
+252k MT
+263k MT
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
TOP GLOBAL BEEF BUYERS. USDA. 000 METRIC TON. CWE
000 mt
China/ Hong Kong USA
RUSSIA JAPAN
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China/Hong Kong Share of Key Suppliers
Brazil:
Argentina:
Uruguay:
Australia:
New Zealand:
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2005-12 Russia/Soviet Republics/Africa 2012-2018 Eastern Europe/Baltics/China/Belgium
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2017 Global Pork Consumption. Selected Countries. Billion Lb. (cwe)
Data Source: USDA-FAS
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.3 21.0 45.9 120.8 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
El Salvador Bosnia and Herzegovina Cote d'Ivoire Macedonia Montenegro Macau Haiti Congo (Kinshasa) Honduras Panama Uruguay Guatemala Kazakhstan New Zealand Dominican Republic Singapore Norway Cuba Angola Ecuador South Africa Belarus Serbia Chile Colombia Australia Hong Kong Argentina Ukraine Canada Taiwan Philippines Korea, South Mexico Vietnam Japan Brazil Russia United States European Union China
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
China Consumption of Beef, Pork, Poultry & Sheep Meat USA Consumption of Beef, Pork, Poultry & Sheep Meat
Source: OECD & FAO. Pounds per Capita. Retail wt. equiv. Source: OECD & FAO. Pounds per Capita. Retail wt. equiv. *** Other includes ducks, geese, lamb, veal, etc.
Beef 8% Pork 61% Poultry Meat 25% Sheep Meat 6% Beef 26% Pork 23% Broiler 42% Turkey 8% Other *** 1%
lb./pp
lb./pp
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Pork Situation and Outlook
Supplies Supplies ( Y/Y Y/Y % change % change)
Pr Producti
+4.0% in 2018 +2.5% in 2019 +1.5% in 2020 Ex Expor ports: +5.2% in 2018 +2.7% in 2019 +2.4% in 2020 Pe Per C Capita: +2.4% in 2018 +1.4% in 2019 +0.4% in 2020
23,347 23,000 22,436 22,785 23,253 23,187 22,843 24,501 24,941 25,584 26,596 27,252 27,657
15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PORK PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS
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Ratio of Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout
Wholesale Beef Prices Have Returned to More "Normal" Levels Relative to Pork
Ratio of Weekly Choice Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout Value
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.40 1.50
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio
Ratio: 78CL Meat Block / 1/4" Pork Loins, USDA Wt Avg
52wk Mo. Avg. 2009-10 Avg = 1.22
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
60 110 160 210 260 310
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LONG TERM PRICE CHART: 1990 -2017
$/cwt
Price History and Forecast for B/S Chicken Breast Price. USDA-AMS. $/cwt
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Broiler Situation and Outlook
36,511 35,131 36,523 36,803 36,641 37,425 38,154 39,636 40,260 41,217 42,147 42,619 42,870
30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MILLION POUNDS
BROILER PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS
Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group
Supplies Supplies ( Y/Y Y/Y % change % change)
Pr Producti
+2.3% in 2018 +1.1% in 2019 +0.6% in 2020 Ex Expor ports: +3.1% in 2018 +3.4% in 2019 +2.3% in 2020 Pe Per C Capita: +1.4% in 2018 +0.0% in 2019
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Ground Beef vs. Chicken Breasts
Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group
78CL Meat Block = 70% 90CL Boneless Beef, Central, Fresh, USDA, Wt. Avg. + 30% 50CL Beef Trim, Fresh, National, USDA, Wt. Avg. Chicken Breast = USDA N.E. Broiler Breast Boneless, Skinless, Wt. Avg.
1.59
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio
Ratio: 78CL Meat Block / Bnls Skinless Chicken Breast
52wk Mo. Avg.
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50,000 51,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 55,000 56,000 57,000 58,000 59,000 60,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
LAYERS ON 1ST OF MONTH: BROILER TYPE HATCHING
'000
2016 2017 2015 5-Yr. Avg.
Source: USDA/NASSChicken and Eggs Monthly Report
2018
US WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS
Source: USDA Broiler Hatchery Report
185,000 195,000 205,000 215,000 225,000 235,000 245,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5 Yr. Avg (2012-16) 2017 2018
1000 eggs
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Lamb Inventories Remain Flat
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
US LAMB INVENTORY
mil head
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD Basis
Monthly Average Prices, 90-115 lb., $ per 100 lb.
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr. Avg. 2017 2018
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Domestic Lamb Production + Imports
mil lb.
US domestic production Imports
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Australia New Zealand Canada Chile Uruguay United Kingdom Ireland Brazil Other
USA LAMB IMPORTS, USDA, MT, PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS
19%
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
2013 Forecast 2013 Actual 2014 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2014 Actual Y/Y ch. 2015 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2015 Actual Y/Y ch. 2016 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2016 Actual Y/Y ch. 2017 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2017 Actual Y/Y ch. 2018 Forecast Y/Y ch. 2018 Actual Y/Y ch. Domestic 90CL Q1 243 214 225 5% 239 11% 321 34% 296 24% 250
210
200
209 0% 225 8% 215 3% Q2 248 203 229 13% 248 22% 311 25% 295 19% 245
218
196
224 3% 225 1% 219
Q3 241 203 218 8% 295 45% 297 1% 281
233
212
189
230 9% 225
213
Q4 224 195 204 5% 296 52% 286
214
219 2% 192
178
213 10% 216 2% 208
Annual 239 204 219 8% 269 32% 304 13% 272 1% 237
208
191
219 5% 223 2% 214
Imported 90CL Q1 210 214 212
213
319 50% 245 15% 250 2% 201
200 0% 213 6% 225 5% 217 2% Q2 225 197 221 12% 217 10% 302 39% 237 9% 245 4% 206
196
226 10% 225 0% 210
Q3 225 193 215 12% 281 46% 293 4% 244
233
211
189
221 5% 225 2% 203
Q4 217 203 213 5% 284 40% 303 7% 207
219 6% 208 0% 178
217 4% 216 0% 207
Annual 219 202 215 7% 249 23% 304 22% 233
237 2% 206
191
219 6% 223 2% 209
2017 Presentation 2013 Presentation 2012 Presentation 2014 Presentation 2015 Presentation 2016 Presentation
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Sep 28, 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
LIVE STEERS FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 137.69 138.40 130.31 128.89 133.82 2017 HISTORY 121.88 131.32 112.62 116.42 120.56 2018 HISTORY 110.47 125.42 116.36 110.11 2018 FORECAST 116.33 117.05 % CHANGE FROM 2017 2.9%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 122.00 120.67 114.00 118.33 118.75 % CHANGE FROM 2018
3.7% 3.5% 1.7% 1.4% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 233.64 237.58 243.95 221.96 234.28 2017 HISTORY 208.98 223.54 229.71 212.66 218.72 2018 HISTORY 192.92 215.22 219.22 209.94 2018 FORECAST 195.33 209.93 % CHANGE FROM 2017 3.0%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 214.00 214.00 218.00 212.00 214.50 % CHANGE FROM 2018
3.8% 8.5% 2.2% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Sep 28, 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 88.33 104.41 84.98 71.44 87.29 2017 HISTORY 78.14 138.04 68.84 60.12 86.28 2018 HISTORY 43.65 82.38 82.29 67.61 2018 FORECAST 54.00 71.57 % CHANGE FROM 2017 5.4%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 78.33 92.33 76.00 68.00 78.67 % CHANGE FROM 2018
12.2% 12.4% 25.9% 9.9% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 217.26 216.74 229.91 223.73 221.91 2017 HISTORY 213.44 226.38 221.09 216.64 219.39 2018 HISTORY 193.00 217.42 209.69 200.68 2018 FORECAST 193.67 205.36 % CHANGE FROM 2017 1.9%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 0.1%
2019 FORECAST 199.33 203.00 212.00 216.33 207.67 % CHANGE FROM 2018
5.6% 11.7% 1.1% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Sep 28, 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
NATIONAL WHOLE BIRD PRICE, USDA, WTD AVG 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 94.36 104.86 91.78 87.46 94.61 2017 HISTORY 88.41 104.66 95.09 86.06 93.56 2018 HISTORY 82.59 95.62 115.08 93.72 2018 FORECAST 84.33 97.19 % CHANGE FROM 2017 8.2% 10.0%
3.9% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 1.3% 9.7% 2.1%
2.7% 2019 FORECAST 90.00 99.67 90.67 87.33 91.92 % CHANGE FROM 2018
3.6%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 126.87 158.39 155.37 119.16 139.95 2017 HISTORY 111.38 148.96 145.10 108.96 128.60 2018 HISTORY 95.41 114.28 127.09 112.57 2018 FORECAST 90.00 110.99 % CHANGE FROM 2017 2.6%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 106.33 136.00 137.33 105.67 121.33 % CHANGE FROM 2018
7.0% 22.0% 17.4% 9.3% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Sep 28, 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
USDA, Carcass Cutout, FOB Plant 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 83.71 92.14 94.96 84.14 88.74 2017 HISTORY 81.49 85.15 90.94 78.53 84.03 2018 HISTORY 80.08 77.45 74.83 74.89 2018 FORECAST 76.00 75.79 % CHANGE FROM 2017
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 78.00 83.67 88.00 78.67 82.08 % CHANGE FROM 2018 0.7% 11.8% 17.5% 3.5% 8.3% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
IA/MN, Base Market Hog 185 lb Carcass Basis, Plant Dlv., WT. AVG, 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 73.19 84.14 83.11 66.61 76.76 2017 HISTORY 66.23 69.41 71.01 58.72 66.34 2018 HISTORY 62.98 64.02 64.72 55.15 2018 FORECAST 55.67 59.89 % CHANGE FROM 2017
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 66.33 75.00 74.33 59.33 68.75 % CHANGE FROM 2018 3.6% 15.9% 34.8% 6.6% 14.8% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Sep 28, 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
TOM TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 16-22LBS, TOP, 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 107.15 110.91 116.40 116.51 112.74 2017 HISTORY 106.33 107.00 107.00 97.62 104.49 2018 HISTORY 89.00 86.00 87.67 89.00 2018 FORECAST 91.67 88.58 % CHANGE FROM 2017
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 90.33 96.00 102.00 105.33 98.42 % CHANGE FROM 2018 5.0% 9.5% 14.6% 14.9% 11.1% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
UB BONELESS-SKINLESS TURKEY BREAST, TOM, FRESH, TOP, 5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 257.26 253.30 303.10 307.74 280.35 2017 HISTORY 160.08 153.17 153.00 155.00 155.31 2018 HISTORY 211.00 155.83 182.50 198.25 2018 FORECAST 215.00 187.90 % CHANGE FROM 2017
19.2% 29.6% 38.7% 21.0% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 FORECAST 196.67 208.67 254.00 262.33 230.42 % CHANGE FROM 2018 26.2% 14.3% 28.1% 22.0% 22.6% % CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg.
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER
5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
170.00 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00 250.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET
5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
DOMESTIC 90CL FRESH, FOB CENTRAL US MINUS 90CL IMPORTED, FROZEN, FOB US EAST COAST
5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST
US$/CWT
2019 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00 160.00 170.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2013-17 2017 HISTORY 2018 HISTORY 2018 FORECAST 2019 FORECAST
US$/CWT