Presented by ; Doug Flohr, Vic Tolomeo, Jennifer Van Court USDA, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presented by ; Doug Flohr, Vic Tolomeo, Jennifer Van Court USDA, NASS, Pacific Region Office (PRO)

Almond Acreage � 2014 Bearing acreage 870,000 � 2015 Bearing acreage 890,000 � 20,000 acres * 2000 lbs/acre = 40,000,000 lbs of production

Almond Acreage � Peak Maturity for trees: age 7 to 25 years � Trees aging past maturity � Bearing acreage change 1990 – 1995: 7,000 acres (411,000 to 418,000 bearing acres) � Trees coming into maturity � Bearing acreage change 2010 – 2015: 120,000 acres (770,000 to 890,000 bearing acres)

Almond Subjective Forecast vs Final Production 1990-2015 2.10 1.95 Final 1.80 Subjective 1.65 1.50 1.35 Billion Pounds 1.20 1.05 0.90 0.75 0.60 0.45 0.30 0.15 0.00

Almond Objective Forecast � Sample: 862 Orchard Blocks � 2 trees per orchard � Sample represents the population � Field Work: May 22 – June 19 � Use 50+ Enumerators � Random Path Method � Sample of Nuts taken and sent to lab � Measure kernel weight, length, width, thickness and grade

Almond Objective Survey Measure trunks & limbs

Count Nuts

Pick Nuts

Weigh At Sizing Station

Measure with Caliper

Sample & OM Models � Samples are very specific, taking into account variety, location, and age of planting � Models are designed to produce forecast of all almond production at the state level from the sample data � Models do not forecast production by variety. Since there is a large number of Nonpareil samples, PRO does use NP sample data to forecast this variety

ALMOND PRODUCTION - CALIFORNIA OM Forecast vs Final 2,200 2,100 2,030 2,010 2,000 1,890 1,870 1,900 1,800 1,640 1,700 1,630 Million Meat lbs. 1,600 1,500 1,410 1,390 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,115 1,090 1,0401,005 1,100 1,000 915 900 830 800 703 Final Forecast 700 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year

Almond set 2013 – 2015 State 2013 2014 2015 % Change 6,686 6,646 5,874 -12

8,157 2008 7,340 7,452 6,737 2009 5,400 5,589 6,783 2010 5,810 Sacramento Valley Nuts per Tree, by District CALIFORNIA ALMONDS 5,956 7,561 2011 7,322 7,353 San Joaquin Valley 7,100 2012 7,041 7,048 State 7,651 2013 6,538 6,686 5,536 2014 6,802 6,646 6,127 2015 5,829 5,874

All Nut Set vs. Yield 8,300 2,700 8,000 2,500 7,700 2,300 7,400 7,100 2,100 Nuts per Tree Lbs. per Acre 6,800 1,900 6,500 1,700 6,200 5,900 1,500 5,600 1,300 5,300 5,000 1,100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nut Set: All Yield (Lbs/Ac)

Almond Set per Tree by Variety, 2013-2015 and % Change % 2013 2014 2015 Change Butte 7,535 7,443 7,034 -5 California Types 6,744 6,718 5,737 -15 Carmel 6,571 6,962 5,714 -18 Monterey 6,311 5,910 5,333 -10 Nonpareil 6,141 6,121 5,239 -14 Padre 8,119 7,989 9,037 +13

NONPAREIL TYPE Nuts per Tree 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,482 7,079 6,571 7,000 6,141 6,121 5,583 6,000 5,239 5,136 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

N.P. Nut Set vs. Yield 2,700 8,000 2,500 7,500 7,000 2,300 6,500 2,100 Nuts per Tree Lbs. per Acre 6,000 1,900 5,500 1,700 5,000 1,500 4,500 1,300 4,000 3,500 1,100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nut Set: N.P. Yield (Lbs/Ac)

CALIFORNIA TYPE Nuts per Tree 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,458 6,718 6,845 6,744 7,000 6,535 6,023 5,737 6,000 5,302 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CALIFORNIA ALMONDS Nut Weight (Grams) 2.0 1.9 1.79 1.8 1.72 1.69 1.67 1.7 Grams 1.60 1.58 1.57 1.6 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.45 1.45 1.5 1.43 1.43 1.41 1.36 1.4 1.3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year CALIFORNIA ALMONDS Kernel Width 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.63 Millimeters 13.35 13.30 13.5 13.10 13.20 12.91 12.87 13.0 12.69 12.58 12.52 12.52 12.51 12.39 12.30 12.34 12.5 12.11 12.0 11.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

All Kernel Weight vs. Yield 2.00 2,700 1.80 2,500 1.60 2,300 1.40 2,100 1.20 Lbs. per Acre Grams 1,900 1.00 1,700 0.80 1,500 0.60 1,300 0.40 0.20 1,100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Kernel Weight: ALL Yield (Lbs/Ac)

CALIFORNIA ALMONDS Kernel Length 25.0 24.5 23.90 23.73 24.0 23.55 23.38 23.5 22.96 Millimeters 23.0 22.24 22.44 22.5 21.84 21.64 21.81 21.60 22.0 21.54 21.40 21.35 21.42 21.43 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year CALIFORNIA ALMONDS Kernel Thickness 11.0 10.47 10.45 10.5 10.31 10.30 10.24 Millimeters 10.06 9.96 9.94 9.93 9.92 9.89 9.89 9.86 10.0 9.76 9.72 9.66 9.5 9.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year

ALMONDS PERCENT SOUND NUTS 2000-2015 101.0 100.0 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.9 98.9 98.8 99.0 98.7 98.7 98.7 98.5 98.4 Percent 98.2 98.1 98.0 97.7 97.6 97.3 97.0 96.0 95.0 Year

Forecast and all Statistics Available On-line � PRO Web: www.nass.usda.gov/ca � NASS Web: www.nass.usda.gov � PRO Contact: (916) 498-5161

2015 Crop Condition � Almond bloom started early this year similar to last year � Crop is developing quickly and harvest is expected to be ahead of normal and possibly ahead of last year’s early start � First hull split around June 6th � Pest and disease pressure is currently low � Water allotments are severely low again this year, trees stressed last year are facing more stress this year.

2015 OM Almond Forecast 1.80 Billion Meat Pounds (-4 Percent) Bearing Acres: 890,000 (Trees Planted 2013 and earlier) Yield: 2,020 Pounds (- 6 Percent)

Presented by; Doug Flohr, Vic Tolomeo, Jennifer Van Court