Presentation to the City of Los Angeles Treasurer on the City's - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation to the City of Los Angeles Treasurer on the City's General Pool Investments May 31, 2017

May 31, 2017 Data Source: Bloomberg Economic Update: Overall Economy * Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted) Percent -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Q3 2009 1.3 Q4 2009 3.9 Q1 2010 1.7 Q2 2010 3.9 U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)* Q3 2010 2.7 Q4 2010 2.5 Q1 2011 -1.5 Q2 2011 2.9 Q3 2011 0.8 Q4 2011 4.6 Q1 2012 2.7 Q2 2012 1.9 Q3 2012 0.5 Q4 2012 0.1 Q1 2013 2.8 Q2 2013 0.8 Q3 2013 3.1 Q4 2013 4.0 Q1 2014 -1.2 Q2 2014 4.0 Q3 2014 5.0 Q4 2014 2.3 Q1 2015 2.0 Q2 2015 2.6 Q3 2015 2.0 Q4 2015 0.9 Q1 2016 0.8 Q2 2016 1.4 Q3 2016 3.5 Q4 2016 2.1 Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists Q1 2017 1.2 Q2 2017 3.0 Q3 2017 2.4 Q4 2017 2.3 As of: 5/31/17 Q1 2018 2.2 2

Economic Update: Employment Unemployment Rates Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls California 11 400 LA Area 10 U.S.A 350 9 300 8 250 Thousands Percent 200 7 150 6 100 5 50 4 0 3 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 *Los Angeles area unemployment is not seasonally adjusted. 12 Month Average Monthly Job Change: 188,833 Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 3

Economic Update: Consumer Activity U.S. Retail Sales* YOY % Change Total Monthly U.S. Retail Sales $480 4.5 $470 4 $460 3.5 $450 3 Percent $440 2.5 Billions $430 2 1.5 $420 1 $410 0.5 $400 0 $390 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 *Inflation Adjusted Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 4

Economic Update: Inflation Sector YOY % Price Changes CPI and CPIX* YOY % Change 3.0 5.6 Energy 2.5 3.4 Shelter 2.6 2.0 Services 2.5 Wages 1.5 Percent 2.2 Education 1.0 1.9 CPI CPI 0.5 0.8 Food CPIX 0.0 -1.3 Apparel -6.6 Communication -0.5 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent *CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 5

Economic Update: Dollar and Commodities Gold and Oil Dollar Index 106 $2,000 $120 104 Gold $1,800 102 100 $100 Oil $1,600 98 96 $1,400 94 Gold-Per Ounce $80 Oil-Per Barrel 92 $1,200 Index Value 90 88 $1,000 $60 86 $800 84 82 $40 $600 80 78 $400 76 $20 74 $200 72 70 $0 $0 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 6

Economic Update: Sector Returns YTD 5/31/17 As of: 20 17.8 17.1 16.9 14.1 14.1 15 12.5 11.1 10 8.5 6.3 Percent 5.3 5 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0 -1.5 -3.0 -5 -6.4 -10 Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 7

Economic Update: S&P 500 Returns 5/31/17 As of: YTD S&P 500 Major Sector Returns 20 17.3 15 12.2 11.7 10.8 10.1 9.0 10 7.1 5 Percent 2.5 0.4 0 -5 -10 -12.6 -15 Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 8

Economic Update: Yield Curve FYTD U.S. Treasury Yield Curve 3.5 Maturity 6/30/16 5/31/17 Change 3M 0.26 0.97 0.71 3.0 6/30/16 6M 0.35 1.07 0.72 5/31/17 2.5 1Y 0.44 1.15 0.72 2.0 Percent 2Y 0.58 1.28 0.70 1.5 3Y 0.69 1.43 0.74 1.0 5Y 1.00 1.75 0.75 10Y 1.47 2.20 0.73 0.5 30Y 2.29 2.86 0.58 0.0 3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Data Source: Bloomberg Figures may not total due to rounding May 31, 2017 9

Economic Update: Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y 1.40 1Y 2.25 3M 2.00 1.20 1.75 1.00 1.50 0.80 Percent Percent 1.25 0.60 1.00 0.40 0.75 0.20 0.50 5Y 0.00 0.25 2Y -0.20 0.00 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 May-17 Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 10

Economic Update: Agency and Corporate Spreads Spread*: 1-5 Yr Corporate vs Treasury Spread*: 1-5 Yr Agency vs Treasury 30 250 25 200 20 Basis Point Spread Basis Point Spread 150 15 100 10 10 63 50 5 0 0 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 *BofA/Merrill Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *BofA/Merrill Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) Agency (GVP0) Corporate A-AAA (CV10) Data Source: Bloomberg May 31, 2017 11

Summary Portfolio Characteristics Core Los Angeles Reserve Total General Los Angeles Core Benchmark * Reserve Benchmark # Portfolio Market Value $2,814,395,693 -- $6,510,167,655 -- $9,324,563,348 Par Value $2,816,121,041 -- $6,489,935,000 -- $9,306,056,041 Variance ($1,725,348) -- $20,232,655 -- $18,507,307 Mkt Value % of Total 30.2% -- 69.8% -- 100% Average Maturity (Yrs)** 0.09 0.23 2.80 2.82 1.98 Effective Duration** 0.19 0.23 2.69 2.70 1.94 Weighted Purchase Yield## 0.94% -- 1.56% -- 1.38% *Core Benchmark: 3 Month T-Bill (G0O1 BofA/Merrill Index) #Reserve Benchmark: 1-5 Year Govt/Corp A-AAA (BU10 BofA Merrill Index) **Average Maturity after rebalancing for the indexes--Portfolios based upon trade date holdings, Core Average Maturity includes checking ## Weighted Purchase Yield for Core does not include checking May 31, 2017 12

Total General Portfolio: Maturity Distribution 35% 30% 25% 20% 5/31/17 15% 4/30/17 10% 5% 0% 0-.25 .25 to .5 .5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5+ Years 0-.25 .25 to .5 .5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5+ 5/31/17 28.8% 0.3% 1.1% 22.8% 17.7% 16.5% 12.7% 4/30/17 23.7% 0.1% 1.3% 24.1% 20.6% 17.4% 12.8% Variance 5.2% 0.2% -0.2% -1.2% -2.9% -0.9% 0.0% May 31, 2017 13

Sector Allocations: Total General Portfolio May 31, 2017 Sector 5/31/2017 4/30/2017 Variance Bank Dep 1.0% Bank Deposits 1.0% 1.2% -0.2% CDARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commercial Paper 24.9% 22.0% 3.0% CP Corporate Notes 15.4% 15.7% -0.4% 24.9% ABS 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Tsy 47.7% MMFs 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% CORP Negotiable CDs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% Agencies* 10.5% 8.4% 2.1% Agy 10.5% Treasuries 47.7% 52.3% -4.7% MMF 0.1% ABS Total 100.0% 100.0% 0.5% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding May 31, 2017 14

Sector Allocations: Core Portfolio Core Portfolio May 31, 2017 Sector 5/31/2017 4/30/2017 Variance MMF Agy 9.5% Bank Deposits 3.3% 4.7% -1.5% 0.3% Corp Bank Dep 4.4% 3.3% CDARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commercial Paper 82.6% 87.5% -5.0% Corporate Notes 4.4% 6.1% -1.7% MMFs 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Negotiable CDs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Agencies* 9.5% 1.6% 7.9% CP 82.6% Treasuries 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding May 31, 2017 15

Sector Allocations: Purchase Yield vs. Weighted Average Maturity Core Portfolio 1.8% Bubble size = Sector's % of Portfolio 1.6% Corp 1.4% Sector WAM (Yrs.) Purchase Yield % of Portfolio* 1.2% Negotiable CDs 0.00 0.00 0.0% Purchase Yield Corporate Notes 0.62 1.51% 4.6% 1.0% CP Commercial Paper 0.07 0.92% 85.4% 0.8% Money Market 0.00 0.21% 0.3% 0.6% Agy Agencies** 0.08 0.83% 9.8% 0.4% Treasuries 0.00 0.00 0.0% MMF 0.2% Total 0.10 0.94% 100.0% 0.0% -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 *Based on Market Value WAM Years **Includes Supranational Securities Figures may not total due to rounding Does not include Checking and BNYM Sweep, CDARS included with CP May 31, 2017 16

Sector Allocations: Reserve Portfolio Reserve Portfolio May 31, 2017 Sector 5/31/2017 4/30/2017 Variance Treasuries 68.3% 69.9% -1.6% Corp ABS 20.1% 0.8% Agencies* 10.9% 10.6% 0.3% Corporate Notes 20.1% 18.9% 1.2% Agy ABS 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% Tsy 10.9% 68.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding May 31, 2017 17