Presentation to the City of Los Angeles Treasurer on the City's - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation to the City of Los Angeles Treasurer on the City's General Pool Investments February 28, 2018

February 28, 2018 Data Source: Bloomberg Economic Update: Overall Economy * Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted) Percent -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Q2 2010 3.9 Q3 2010 2.7 Q4 2010 2.5 Q1 2011 -1.5 U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)* Q2 2011 2.9 Q3 2011 0.8 Q4 2011 4.6 Q1 2012 2.7 Q2 2012 1.9 Q3 2012 0.5 Q4 2012 0.1 Q1 2013 2.8 Q2 2013 0.8 Q3 2013 3.1 Q4 2013 4.0 Q1 2014 -0.9 Q2 2014 4.6 Q3 2014 5.2 Q4 2014 2.0 Q1 2015 3.2 Q2 2015 2.7 Q3 2015 1.6 Q4 2015 0.5 Q1 2016 0.6 Q2 2016 2.2 Q3 2016 2.8 Q4 2016 1.8 Q1 2017 1.2 Q2 2017 3.1 Q3 2017 3.2 Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists Q4 2017 2.5 Q1 2018 2.7 Q2 2018 2.7 Q3 2018 2.7 As of: 2/28/2018 Q4 2018 2.5 2

Economic Update: Employment Unemployment Rates Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls California 10 400 LA Area U.S.A 350 9 300 8 250 Thousands 7 Percent 200 6 150 5 100 4 50 0 3 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 *Los Angeles area unemployment is not seasonally adjusted. 12 Month Average Monthly Job Change: 190,083 Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 3

Economic Update: Consumer Activity U.S. Retail Sales* YOY % Change Total Monthly U.S. Retail Sales $500 4.5 $490 4 $480 3.5 $470 3 $460 Percent 2.5 Billions $450 2 $440 1.5 $430 1 $420 0.5 $410 0 $400 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 *Inflation Adjusted Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 4

Economic Update: Inflation Sector YOY % Price Changes CPI and CPIX* YOY % Change 3.0 7.9 Energy 3.1 2.5 Shelter 2.6 Wages 2.0 2.4 Services 1.5 Percent 2.2 CPI 1.0 2.0 Education CPI 0.5 1.3 Food CPIX 0.0 0.2 Apparel -5.5 Communication -0.5 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 Percent *CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 5

Economic Update: Dollar and Commodities Gold and Oil Dollar Index 106 $2,000 $120 104 Gold $110 102 $1,800 100 Oil $100 98 96 $1,600 $90 94 Gold-Per Ounce Oil-Per Barrel 92 $80 Index Value $1,400 90 88 $70 86 $1,200 $60 84 82 $50 $1,000 80 78 $40 76 $800 74 $30 72 70 $600 $20 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 6

Economic Update: Sector Returns YTD 2/28/18 As of: 6 4.2 3.7 4 2.7 1.8 2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -2 -1.2 -1.9 -2.1 Percent -3.1 -4 -3.8 -6 -6.2 -8 -10 -12 -11.6 -14 Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 7

Economic Update: S&P 500 Returns 2/28/18 As of: YTD S&P 500 Major Sector Returns 8 6.6 5.5 6 3.4 4 1.8 2 1.3 1.0 0 Percent -2 -1.5 -4 -6 -6.1 -6.9 -8 -7.6 -10 Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 8

Economic Update: Yield Curve FYTD U.S. Treasury Yield Curve 3.3 Maturity 6/30/17 2/28/18 Change 3.1 3M 1.01 1.66 0.64 2.9 2.7 6M 1.13 1.85 0.72 2.5 1Y 1.23 2.06 0.83 2.3 Percent 2Y 1.38 2.25 0.87 2.1 1.9 3Y 1.55 2.41 0.86 1.7 6/30/17 5Y 1.89 2.64 0.75 1.5 2/28/18 1.3 10Y 2.31 2.86 0.56 1.1 30Y 2.84 3.13 0.29 0.9 3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Data Source: Bloomberg Figures may not total due to rounding February 28, 2018 9

Economic Update: Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y 2.50 1Y 3.00 2.75 3M 2.00 2.50 2.25 1.50 2.00 1.75 Percent Percent 1.00 1.50 1.25 0.50 1.00 0.75 5Y 0.00 0.50 2Y 0.25 -0.50 0.00 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 10

Economic Update: Agency and Corporate Spreads Spread*: 1-5 Yr Corporate vs Treasury Spread*: 1-5 Yr Agency vs Treasury 30 225 200 25 175 20 Basis Point Spread Basis Point Spread 150 15 125 100 10 75 56 5 6 50 25 0 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 *BofA/Merrill Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *BofA/Merrill Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) Agency (GVP0) Corporate A-AAA (CV10) Data Source: Bloomberg February 28, 2018 11

Summary Portfolio Characteristics Core Los Angeles Reserve Total General Los Angeles Core Benchmark * Reserve Benchmark # Portfolio Market Value $2,784,006,349 -- $6,885,401,583 -- $9,669,407,932 Book Value $2,784,084,924 -- $7,026,688,414 -- $9,810,773,338 Variance ($78,575) -- ($141,286,831) -- ($141,365,406) Mkt Value % of Total 28.8% -- 71.2% -- 100% Average Maturity (Yrs)** 0.24 0.23 2.78 2.78 2.05 Effective Duration** 0.22 0.23 2.66 2.66 1.96 Weighted Purchase Yield## 1.62% -- 1.72% -- 1.69% *Core Benchmark: 3 Month T-Bill (G0O1 ICE BofAML Index) #Reserve Benchmark: 1-5 Year Govt/Corp A-AAA (BU10 ICE BofAML Index) **Average Maturity after rebalancing for the indexes--Portfolios based upon trade date holdings, Core Average Maturity includes checking ## Weighted Purchase Yield for Core does not include checking February 28, 2018 12

Total General Portfolio: Maturity Distribution 25% 20% 15% 2/28/18 1/31/18 10% 5% 0% 0-.25 .25 to .5 .5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5+ Years 0-.25 .25 to .5 .5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5+ 2/28/18 22.6% 0.8% 5.4% 21.9% 21.5% 15.8% 12.0% 1/31/18 21.3% 0.8% 3.6% 23.6% 21.5% 16.8% 12.4% Variance 1.4% 0.0% 1.8% -1.7% 0.0% -1.1% -0.4% February 28, 2018 13

Sector Allocations: Total General Portfolio February 28, 2018 Sector 2/28/2018 1/31/2018 Variance Bank Dep 1.5% Bank Deposits 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% CDARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Commercial Paper 19.6% 19.4% 0.2% CP 19.6% Corporate Notes 14.7% 15.3% -0.6% ABS 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% MMFs 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% CORP Tsy 14.7% 55.1% Negotiable CDs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Agy Agencies* 7.1% 7.8% -0.7% MMF 7.1% 1.1% Treasuries 55.1% 55.5% -0.4% ABS 1.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding February 28, 2018 14

Sector Allocations: Core Portfolio Core Portfolio February 28, 2018 Sector 2/28/2018 1/31/2018 Variance Tsy 12.3% Agy Bank Deposits 5.2% 4.1% 1.1% MMF 3.4% 3.9% Bank Dep CDARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% Corp Commercial Paper 67.9% 75.5% -7.5% 7.2% Corporate Notes 7.2% 7.9% -0.7% MMFs 3.9% 0.3% 3.5% Negotiable CDs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Agencies* 3.4% 4.7% -1.3% CP 67.9% Treasuries 12.3% 7.6% 4.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding February 28, 2018 15

Sector Allocations: Purchase Yield vs. Weighted Average Maturity Core Portfolio 1.9% Corp 1.8% CP 1.7% Sector WAM (Yrs.) Purchase Yield % of Portfolio* Agy 1.6% Negotiable CDs 0.00 0.00 0.0% Purchase Yield Corporate Notes 0.53 1.76% 7.6% 1.5% Commercial Paper 0.11 1.71% 71.7% 1.4% Money Market 0.00 1.22% 4.1% 1.3% MMF Agencies** 0.54 1.55% 3.6% 1.2% Tsy Treasuries 0.90 1.17% 13.0% 1.1% Total 0.26 1.62% 100.0% Bubble size = Sector's % of Portfolio 1.0% -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 *Based on Market Value WAM Years **Includes Supranational Securities Figures may not total due to rounding Does not include Checking and BNYM Sweep, CDARS included with CP February 28, 2018 16

Sector Allocations: Reserve Portfolio Reserve Portfolio February 28, 2018 Sector 2/28/2018 1/31/2018 Variance ABS Treasuries 72.4% 72.1% 0.3% Corp 1.4% 17.7% Agencies* 8.5% 8.8% -0.3% Corporate Notes 17.7% 17.8% -0.2% Agy 8.5% ABS 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% Tsy Total 100.0% 100.0% 72.4% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding February 28, 2018 17