Present Status and Physics Prospects of PINGU Joshua Hignight for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Present Status and Physics Prospects of PINGU Joshua Hignight for the IceCube-Gen2 Collaboration May 30 th , 2018 May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 1 / 22

IceCube IceCube Lab IceTop 81 Stations 50 m 324 optical sensors Instrument 1 Gton of ice Optimized for TeV-PeV neutrinos IceCube Array ◮ Astrophysical ν discovered! 86 strings including 8 DeepCore strings 5160 optical sensors DeepCore 1450 m DeepCore ◮ ∼ 10 Mton region with 8 strings-spacing optimized for lower energies denser instrumentation 480 optical sensors ◮ Pushes thresholds down to ≈ 5 GeV Eiffel Tower 324 m ◮ Surrounding detector used as 2450 m active veto against atmospheric µ 2820 m Bedrock May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 2 / 22

IceCube-DeepCore 25 GeV ν µ CC color → hit time size → hit charge IceCube DOM ❅ ■ ❅ 10” PMT May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 3 / 22

IceCube Upgrade 2.4m Upgrade May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 4 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: Hardware Seven new strings in DeepCore with inter-string space of ∼ 22m Two planned PMT designs: ◮ multi-PMTs mDOMs ◮ Dual optical sensor in an Ellipsoid Glass for Gen2 (D-Egg) Both include new calibration devices to help better understand the ice ◮ Onboard LEDs with wider range of angles accessible, including vertically ◮ New camera for local ice calibration May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 5 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: Hardware multi-PMTs mDOMs D-Egg ◮ 24 × 3 ” PMTs housed in a 14 ” DOM ◮ Two 8 ” PMTs facing back-to-back ◮ Double the photocathode area of ◮ Ellipsoid glass, optimal shape for glass IceCube DOMs transparency ◮ Provides extra directional information ◮ Single ADC with wide dynamic range of photons May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 6 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: Science Goals ν τ appearance analysis ◮ PMNS unitarity tests Precision measurements of sin 2 ( θ 23 ) and ∆ m 2 32 ◮ Octant/Maximal mixing ◮ Complementary to LBL experiments Neutrino mass ordering at 1.5-2 σ in 3 years Improvement on eV sterile ν searches, NSI, solar WIMP searches, and other BSM searches Better neutrino astronomy at high energies ◮ Improved angular resolution and veto performance ◮ ν τ identification ◮ Multi-messenger astronomy May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 7 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: Oscillation Physics ORCA KM3NeT-ARCA 10 23 L � L atm 10 7 Solar Potential 10 22 PINGU IceCube 
 DUNE (High Energy) 10 6 NO ν A MINOS/OPERA/ICARUS T2K KamLAND L [GeV –1 ] 10 21 K2K L [m] 10 5 JUNO Super-Kamiokande RENO-50 10 20 10 4 tau production 
 DAE δ ALUS threshold Daya Bay 10 19 10 3 Double CHOOZ 
 RENO 10 18 10 -3 10 -2 10 -1 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 E ν [GeV] IceCube probes oscillation physics at baselines and energies inaccessible to LBL or reactor neutrino experiments. May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 8 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: ν τ Appearance 2.00 IceCube Upgrade Preliminary 95% range ν τ Appearance < 7% precision on the ν τ 1.75 68% range normalization after 3 years 1.50 of data. ν τ normalization 1.25 ∼ 10% precision needed SuperK (68%) 1.00 for real tests of the IC Upgrade 3y (68%) unitarity of the PMNS DeepCore 10y (68%) 0.75 Opera (90%) mixing matrix. 0.50 Very few experiments can 0.25 do this measurement! 0.00 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 livetime (years) May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 9 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: ν µ Disappearance Upgrade Upgrade Upgrade Projected limits on sin 2 ( θ 23 ) and ∆ m 2 32 competitive with dedicated LBL experiments. May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 10 / 22

IceCube Upgrade: Sterile Neutrinos IceCube Upgrade (3y), 90% C.L. Higher precision event reconstructions increase sensitivity considerably. Upgrade should produce similar improvements in searches for non-standard neutrino interactions (NSI), WIMPs, and other BSM physics - under current investigation. May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 11 / 22

IceCube Upgrade Timeline Project timeline: ◮ 2019-Q1: Preliminary Design Review; drill recon season at Pole ◮ 2019: Preparation for final design; long lead procurement ◮ 2020-Q1: Final Design Review ◮ 2020-2021: Drill generators ship to Pole; refurbish drill structures at Pole ◮ 2021-2022: Firn drilling ◮ 2022-2023: Deploy 7 strings May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 12 / 22

IceCube-Gen2 IceCube-Gen2 is a versitile facility for future South Pole physics Radio Array Surface Array High Energy Array ◮ 120 strings × 90 sensors/string ◮ ∼ 8 km 2 area with wider string spacing PINGU ◮ Low energy infill ◮ 17 strings × 125 sensors + Upgrade strings ◮ 24m inter-string spacing May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 13 / 22

PINGU 2.4m 2.4m May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 14 / 22

PINGU: Science Goals Augmenting the low-energy program of the upgrade. ◮ ∼ 70k up-going atmospheric neutrinos per year Neutrino mass ordering ν τ appearance sin 2 ( θ 23 ) octant sensitivity Wide breadth of other science: ◮ Dark matter searches ◮ Earth tomography ◮ SN ◮ ... May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 15 / 22

PINGU: Neutrino Mass Ordering Neutrinos Anti-Neutrinos Normal hierarchy (NH) Inverted hierarchy (IH) May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 16 / 22

PINGU: Neutrino Mass Ordering PINGU cannot differentiate ν and ¯ ν : rely on difference in flux and cross-section ◮ Large statistical samples: ∼ 33k ν µ + ¯ ν µ CC per year, ∼ 25k ν e + ¯ ν e CC per year Distinct ordering dependent signatures for tracks (mostly ν µ CC) and cascades ◮ Intensity is statistical significance of each bin with 1 year data ◮ Particular expected “distortion pattern” helps mitigate impact of systematics May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 17 / 22

PINGU: Neutrino Mass Ordering 12 7 IO median sensitivity 68% CL (stat.) 95% CL (stat.) 11 NO median sensitivity 68% CL (stat.) 10 6 95% CL (stat.) 9 5 8 n σ (4 yr) n σ (4 yr) 7 4 6 5 3 4 2 3 2 1 1 NuFit v2.0 IO best NuFit v2.0 NO best 0 0 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 sin 2 θ 23 sin 2 θ 23 Sensitivities calculated with 2 different methods (LLR and ∆ χ 2 ) in agreement NMO sensitivity strongly depends on true sin 2 ( θ 23 ) Median sensitivity of ∼ 3 σ with 4 years of data for current best-fit values ◮ Current global best fit close to sensitivity minimum for both orderings! May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 18 / 22

PINGU: ν τ Appearance Expected to reach 5 σ exclusion of no ν τ appearance with a month of data ◮ Can even reach 5 σ exclusion of no ν τ appearance within a year if ν τ normalization is 0.6. normalization SK (90%CL) expected ± σ 3 1 OPERA (90% CL) ± σ 2 Can reach Upgrade precision with less than 1 2 τ ν year of data. Precision on 1 σ 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Livetime (months) May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 19 / 22

PINGU: ν µ Disappearance 2.10 PINGU 4 year, maximal mixing PINGU 4 year, Fogli 2012 θ 23 input 2.15 PINGU 4 year, NuFit 2014 inputs Inverted mass ordering assumed, 90% CL contours 2.20 2.25 32 [10 − 3 eV 2 ] 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 ∆ m 2 Precision of sin 2 ( θ 32 ) and ∆ m 2 2.50 32 2.55 measurement is as good as LBL 2.60 2.65 experiments 2.70 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 sin 2 θ 23 10 NO 4 year octant sensitivity � 3 σ if: Years until exclusion of wrong octant 9 IO 8 ◮ NO: sin 2 ( θ 32 ) � 0.38 or � 0.62 7 ◮ IO: sin 2 ( θ 32 ) � 0.38 or � 0.58 6 (90% CL) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 sin 2 θ 23 May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 20 / 22

Conclusion IceCube Upgrade proposal is under review ◮ Stepping stone towards full IceCube-Gen2 program ◮ Anticipated world leading sensitivity to ν τ appearance ⋆ expected precision better than 7% after 3 years ◮ Improvement to wide range of measurements expected ⋆ inparticularly improvements to neutrino astronomy! PINGU goes beyond IceCube Upgrade ◮ Potential low-energy extension to IceCube-Gen2 ◮ Rich physics reach May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 21 / 22

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Backup May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 23 / 22

Methods for estimating sensitivity to the NMH χ 2 (pull) method Likelihood Ratio Preliminary Currently two methods used: the χ 2 method and Likelihood Ratio ◮ Output of full simulation and reconstruction parametrized and used ◮ Analysis done in E ν × cos( zenith ) space in 2 PID bins ◮ χ 2 method: Relatively fast evaluation by scanning nonlinear parameters and propagating error for linear parameters and minimizing the ∆ χ 2 ◮ Likelihood Ratio: Full analysis from pseudo data sets. While method is slower it does not pre-suppose any shapes May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 24 / 22

LLR method May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 25 / 22

LLR method May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 26 / 22

Systematics for PINGU Studies May 30 th , 2018 Joshua Hignight PINGU 27 / 22