1
Preliminary Results
18 March 2020
52 weeks to 2 February 2020
Preliminary Results 18 March 2020 52 weeks to 2 February 2020 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Preliminary Results 18 March 2020 52 weeks to 2 February 2020 1 David Potts CEO Fix, Rebuild, Grow, Sustain , S Sust ustain GROW A broader business creating value REBUILD Six priorities to improve the shopping trip Gain consistency
1
18 March 2020
52 weeks to 2 February 2020
3
GROW A broader business creating value REBUILD Six priorities to improve the shopping trip Gain consistency and confidence FIX Stable LFL Improve capability Operate at lower cost
, S Sust ustain
Fix, Rebuild, Grow, Sustain
SUSTAIN Shopping trip improvements Carbon and plastic Local integration
4
Own Brand
5
Colleagues
6
Consumer confidence weaker
Source: GfK Consumer Confidence monthly year-on-year change
7
Be more competitive – own brand customer favourites
8
Be more competitive
9
Serve customers better
10
Find local solutions
Over 1,000 local items Over 200 local suppliers 37 local foodmaker events Local sales up
11
Make core supermarkets strong again
12
Naturally digital
Evolution not revolution Organise people and processes Work at pace to create value Small team to identify opportunities
13
Wholesale
14
Wholesale & online
Rontec, Gateway Leeds Interior - Rontec, Gateway Leeds Online Home Delivery Morrisons Daily Conversion
15
17
2019/20 2018/191 Ex-fuel like-for-like sales growth (0.8)% 4.8% Profit before tax and exceptionals2
408 396 Return on capital employed 7.0% 6.9% Net debt : EBITDA3 2.4x 2.4x Ordinary dividend
6.77p 6.60p Special dividend
2.00p 6.00p Total dividend
8.77p 12.60p
Overview
1 Restated for IFRS 16 - lease accounting 2 Profit before tax, exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest 3 EBITDA before exceptional items3.0%
18
2018/19 2019/20 Like-for-like (ex-VAT) H1 H2 FY H1 H2 FY Group Sales ex-fuel % 4.9 4.6 4.8 0.2 (1.7) (0.8) Sales inc-fuel % 4.2 4.5 4.3 0.2 (2.5) (1.1)
Sales
17,735 17,536 (105) (94)
2018/19 Net new space Like-for-like Fuel 2019/20
Sales £m
19
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Impairment and provision for onerous contracts 2 (10) Profit/(loss) on disposal and exit of properties 66
(51)
Retirement benefit exceptional items
Other exceptional items (9) (42) Net retirement benefit interest 19 18 Total exceptional credit/(charge) 27 (93)
Exceptional items
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting20
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Reported operating profit 521 432 Reported profit before tax 435 303 £m 2019/20 2018/191 Operating profit before exceptionals 513 510 EBITDA margin before exceptionals 5.9% 5.7% Profit before tax and exceptionals2 408 396
Profit
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting 2 Profit before tax, exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest3.0% 22 bps
21
–
Productivity
–
Shrink / availability
–
COGS
–
Naturally digital
Cost saving opportunities
22
A broader, stronger business
£75m - £125m incremental profit target:
–
Lower interest
–
Morrisons.com
–
Wholesale
–
Popular and useful services Cumulative £68m
23
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Cash flow from operations 1,017 977 Capital expenditure (511) (461) Tax and interest (190) (195) Proceeds from disposals 34 22 Other 11 (19) Non cash movements on lease liabilities (66) (53) 295 271 Other non cash movements (57) 10 238 281 Dividends paid (302) (289) Movement in net debt (64) (8) Opening net debt (2,394) (2,386) Closing net debt (2,458) (2,394)
Statement of cash flow
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting24
Balance sheet
186 272 594 688 944
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Net Pension Surplus £m
1,020 520 365 419 500 461 511
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Cash Capex £m
2,817 2,340 1,746 1,194 973 997 1,082
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Net Debt (pre-IFRS 16) £m
8.2% 5.6% 5.3% 6.3% 6.7% 6.9% 7.0%
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
ROCE
Post-IFRS 16 Basis Lease adjusted on a 14x multiplier
25
2020/21 Financial calendar
2020/21 Date Q1 trading statement 12 May 2020 AGM 11 June 2020 Half year end 2 August 2020 Interim results announcement 10 September 2020 Financial year end 31 January 2021
26
Net new space sales 0.3% Depreciation c.£550m Net finance costs before exceptionals c.£105m Capital expenditure c.£525m Normalised tax rate 23% - 23.5% Cash tax paid To include c.£50m cash impact Onerous capital payments Less than £10m Wholesale supply sales £1bn in due course
2020/21 guidance
27
Capital allocation framework
Invest in maintaining estate and reducing cost Maintain debt ratios to support investment grade rating Invest for profitable growth Pay dividends in line with stated policy Return surplus capital to shareholders
28
29
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Revenue 17,536 17,735 Statutory operating profit 521 432 Net finance costs (87) (130) Share of profit from joint venture 1 1 Statutory profit before tax 435 303 Profit before tax and exceptionals2 408 396 Basic earnings per share before exceptionals3 13.18p 12.85p Net debt 2,458 2,394 Total dividend4 8.77p 12.60p
Financial summary
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting 2 Profit before tax, exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest 3 Profit before exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest, adjusted for a normalised tax charge divided by weighted average number of shares 4 Includes special dividends of 2.00p in 2019/20 and 6.00p in 2018/193.0% 20.6 %
30
Earnings per share (EPS) before exceptionals
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Profit before tax and exceptionals2 408 396 Normalised tax charge at 23.1% (2018/19: 23.5%) (94) (93) Profit before exceptionals and after tax3 314 303 Weighted average number of shares (m) 2,383 2,357 Basic EPS before exceptionals4 13.18p 12.85p Total dividend5 8.77p 12.60p
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting 2 Profit before tax, exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest 3 Profit before exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest, adjusted for a normalised tax charge 4 Profit before exceptional items and net retirement benefit interest, adjusted for a normalised tax charge divided by weighted average number of shares 5 Includes special dividends of 2.00p in 2019/20 and 6.00p in 2018/1931
Finance costs
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Interest payable (47) (51) Interest capitalised 2 1 Provisions: unwinding of discount (2) (3) Interest on lease liabilities (63) (66) Other finance costs (1) (1) Finance costs before exceptionals (111) (120) Other finance income 4 4 Finance lease income 1 1 Net finance costs before exceptionals (106) (115) Costs associated with repayment of borrowings
Net retirement benefit interest 19 18 Net finance costs (87) (130)
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting32
Statement of financial position
£m 2019/20 2018/191 Property, plant and equipment and investments2 8,641 8,581 Working capital3 (2,038) (2,013) Provisions and tax (548) (537) Net retirement benefit surplus 944 688 Net debt (2,458) (2,394) Net assets 4,541 4,325 Key metrics: Interest cover 4.8x 4.4x Net debt : EBITDA 2.4x 2.4x Gearing 54% 55% ROCE 7.0% 6.9%
1 Restated for IFRS 16 – lease accounting 2 Including goodwill and intangibles, property, plant and equipment, right-of-use assets, investment property, assets held-for-sale, investments in joint venture, andnon-current trade and other receivables
3 Inventories, receivables and payables < 1 year33
Our priorities
To be more competitive To serve customers better Find local solutions Develop popular and useful services To simplify and speed up the organisation To make the core supermarkets strong again Naturally digital
34
The plan
Dividend yield Operational levers to enhance returns Capital structure levers to enhance returns Profit growth Optimise total shareholder return on basis of robust balance sheet Asset intensity Optimise assets Capital return Volume growth Margin
35
2 February 2020 3 February 2019 Number of shareholders 36,349 39,090 Number of shares in issue (m) 2,405 2,368 Dividend (p) 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 Interim ordinary 1.93 1.85 1.66 Interim special 2.00 2.00
4.84 4.75 4.43 Final special
4.00 Total 8.77 12.60 10.09 Dividend dates Ex dividend 21 May 2020 Record 22 May 2020 Payment 29 June 2020
Shareholder information
36