Polling Latinos in 2016: A Look at National and Swing State Polls - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Polling Latinos in 2016: A Look at National and Swing State Polls

Alan Abramowitz, Ph.D. Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science Emory University

Problems with Latino Polling in 2016

• Many national and state polls, including polls in

swing states with sizeable Latino populations, do not provide separate estimates for the Latino vote—instead Latinos are frequently included in a general category of “nonwhites”

• Many national and swing state polls do not

provide information on the racial composition of their likely voter samples

• Many national and swing state polls ask only a 4-

way candidate choice question which is difficult to compare with the results of the Latino Decisions 2-way candidate choice question

Underestimates of Latino Share of Electorate

• Some polls in potential swing states such as

Colorado, Nevada and Arizona have estimated that Latinos are a smaller share of the electorate in 2016 than in 2012 based on exit polls

• Most national polls are estimating that Latinos

will make up approx. 10% of voters. However,

• ne recent national poll, the new

ABC/Washington Post poll, estimated that Latinos would comprise only 7% of voters in 2016 which would be a substantial decline from estimates that Latinos were 9%-10% of voters in 2012

The Most Glaring Problem: Overestimates of Trump Vote

• A. National Polls
• LA Times/USC Dornsife Poll currently estimates

Clinton leads among Latinos by only 50%-39%

• Rasmussen Poll currently estimates that Trump

actually leads among “other nonwhites,” a category that includes Latinos as well as Asian- American and mixed race voters

• YouGov Poll of Oct.7-8 gave Clinton a 59%-29%

lead among Latinos

• GWU/Battleground poll of Oct. 8-13 gave Clinton

a lead of 59%-26% among Latinos

• Washington Post/ABC poll of Sept. 19-22 gave

Clinton a lead of 73%-23% among all nonwhites— a result that implies well over 30% Latino support for Trump

• CNN/ORC poll of Sept. 28-Oct. 2 gave Clinton a

lead of 69%-23% among all nonwhites—a result that implies well over 30% Latino support for Trump

• Reality Check: Latino Decisions National Tracking

Poll of Oct. 10 has Clinton leading Trump by 74%- 16% and new NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll has Clinton leading Trump by 70%-17%

• B. Swing State Polls
• Arizona: NBC/WSJ/Marist poll gave Clinton a

55%-30% lead among Latino voters. Latino Decisions Arizona poll gave Clinton a 70%-18% lead

• Nevada: NBC/WSJ/Marist poll gave Clinton a

65%-30% lead among Latino Voters. Latino Decisions Nevada poll gave Clinton a 70%-14% lead

Why It Matters

• Underestimates of size and/or Clinton margin among

Latino voters give a misleading impression of the way Latino voters are reacting to Trump’s extreme racist and anti-immigrant message

• In addition, such errors can result in underestimating

the overall Clinton margin in the nation or a key swing state

• Example: The difference between a 30 point Clinton

margin among Latinos and a 58 point Clinton margin among Latinos would be approximately 3 points of national vote margin—the difference between a 2-3 point national margin and a 5-6 point national margin