POLLING POST MORTEM British Polling Council / NatCen 8th December - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
EU REFERENDUM POLLING POST MORTEM British Polling Council / NatCen 8th December 2016 FINAL POLLS Modal difference that hasnt been seen since online polls first started to show UKIP overtaking the Lib Dems in 2012/2013 Leave % minus Remain %
British Polling Council / NatCen 8th December 2016
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Modal difference that hasn’t been seen since online polls first started to show UKIP overtaking the Lib Dems in 2012/2013
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Populus ComRes ORB Ipsos MORI Survation YouGov TNS Opinium
Leave % minus Remain %
Telephone Online
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
UKIP Lib Dem Con Lab
Trend line smoothed to 4-poll moving average
Party propensity weighting European Parliament elections
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Leave Remain Party propensity weighting Actual question text used
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Stephen Bush: “Broadly, a moderately high turnout (say 60 per cent all the way up to 80 per cent) is good for Remain, and anything below 45 is good for Leave. On a low turnout, the preferences of the elderly and the devout are exaggerated – in this contest, both those groups aid Leave.”
61% 61% 59% 63% 59% 72.20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Political Studies Association turnout predictions
PSA Mean Academics Pollsters Journalists Other Actual turnout
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Ad Adam Dr Drummond (Opiniu ium): “Instinctively I’d expect turnout between 45% and 55%, with Remain’s chances of victory increasing in almost direct proportion. At risk of creating hostages to fortune I’m almost tempted to go with a rule of thumb that turnout below 50% means Brexit, and above 50% means we stay in.”
Damian Lyons Lowe – Surv Survation 60% Ben Page – Ip Ipso sos MORI 59% Luke Taylor – TNS 65% Martin Boon – ICM ICM 40-50% Andrew Hawkins – Com ComRes >60% Joe Twyman – You
“Closer to 60% than 30%” “but, like I say, I’m not unused to being horribly wrong”
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/how-britains-pollsters-think-eu-referendum-might-g?utm_term=.hppR119Mr5#.xwVz556GpY Published April 11th 2016
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47% 49% 53% 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Demographic weights with no GE adjustment + Party Propensity Demographic weights with GE adjustment + Party Propensity
Effects of retroactively applying GE turnout filters to EU Ref Polls
Remain Leave
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And if you were forced to choose, would you say you lean more towards the UK remaining part of the European Union or more towards the UK leaving the European Union? 1. Lean more towards the UK REMAINING in the EU 2. Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 3. Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 4. Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 5. No opinion
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Results of “nudge” question
% of sample Lean REMAIN Lean LEAVE Still no view
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And if you were forced to choose, would you say you lean more towards the UK remaining part of the European Union or more towards the UK leaving the European Union? 1. Lean more towards the UK REMAINING in the EU 2. Undecided but more likely to vote REMAIN than LEAVE 3. Undecided but more likely to vote LEAVE than REMAIN 4. Lean more towards the UK LEAVING the EU 5. No opinion
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Results of “nudge” question
Lean REMAIN Lean LEAVE
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BE BES Face ace to
ace Pho hone Onl Onlin ine Ra Racia ial l equ equali lity Not gone far enough 31.9% 40.0% 24.9% About right 42.9% 39.5% 39.3% Gone too far 18.7% 15.3% 26.4% Na Natio ional l ide dentit ity More British 20.9% 27.2% 19.2% Equally British and English 47.6% 42.7% 38.8% More English 23.8% 24.4% 31.7%
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Online samples were more socially conservative but OUR online samples even more so.
31.9% 42.9% 18.7% 40.0% 39.5% 15.3% 24.9% 39.3% 26.4% 20.5% 36.5% 35.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Not gone far enough About right Gone too far
“Have efforts to counter racial discrimination…
BES Face to face Populus Phone Populus Online Opinium (Online) 27th May 16
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Online samples were more socially conservative but OUR online samples even more so.
20.90% 47.60% 23.80% 27.20% 42.70% 24.40% 19.20% 38.80% 31.70% 14.30% 35.80% 40.40% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% More British Equally British and English More English
“Would you say that you feel…”
BES Face to face Populus Phone Populus Online Opinium (Online) 27th May 16
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Leave Remain
Introduction of attitudinal weighs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Leave Remain
Without attitudinal weights
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49% 51% 47% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Remain (with attitudinal weights) Leave (with attitudinal weights)
weights) Leave (no attitudinal weights) All who expressed a voting intention
WITH attitudinal weights WITHOUT attitudinal weights
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48% 52% 45% 55% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Remain (with attitudinal weights) Leave (with attitudinal weights)
weights) Leave (no attitudinal weights) 10 out of 10 likely to vote
WITH attitudinal weights WITHOUT attitudinal weights
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EU referendum was a sui sui generis event almost specifically designed to trip up pollsters. There is a limit to the extent to which we can apply lessons to general election polling
No adju justment we we would have made pre-referendum would have pushed our final poll into the sort of clear Remain lead territory that telephone polls had
would have made our 2015 GE result much more accurate
transcends party loyalties, particularly as we move on from the referendum and past vote weighting becomes less and less applicable
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The “Leave” vote is much more unified than the “Remain” vote.
85 85% 47 47% 74 74% 51 51% 66 66% 62 62% 34 34% 11 11% 3% 3% 39 39% 12 12% 31 31% 26 26% 32 32% 59 59% 80 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Democratic Socialists Community Progressives Swing Voters New Britain Free Liberals Common Sense Our Britain
EU Referendum vote by “tribe”
Remain Leave
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SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER