PM 1 0 Objective - w hat it m eans for Local Authorities Beth - - PDF document

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PM 1 0 Objective - w hat it m eans for Local Authorities Beth Conlan, John R Stedm an Current National Objectives

The current national objective is Annual average 4 0 µg m - 3 by 2 0 0 4 2 4 hour objective of 5 0 µg m - 3, not to be exceeded m ore than 3 5 tim es, by 2 0 0 4

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DEFRA & Devolved Adm inistrations: AQS consultation

An analysis of the costs and benefits of a m ore stringent AQS objective

• The contributions to current

ambient PM10 concentrations from different sources

• How these are likely to change

in the future as a result of current policies (baseline)

• The costs and benefits

resulting from an illustrative package of possible additional policy measures

Proposed Objectives

To be achieved by the end of 2 0 1 0 :

• UK except London and Scotland: 24-hour mean of

50 µgm -3 not to be exceeded more than 7 times per year and an annual mean of 20 µgm -3

• for London: 24-hour mean of 50 µgm -3not to be

exceeded m ore than 10-14 times per year and an annual mean of 23-25 µgm -3

• for Scotland, a 24-hour mean of 50 µgm -3not to

be exceeded more than 7 times per year and an annual mean of 18 µgm -3

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• Predicting PM10 concentrations in 2010:

comparison with EU indicative Stage 2 limit value of 20 µgm -3 – Site specific receptor m odelling and projections of current, historical and future concentrations – Maps of current and future concentrations

• Costs of measures
• Analysis of the health and wider

environm ental benefits of reductions in concentrations

• Implications for Local Authorities

Today’s Presentation: Pow er Stations

Primary: 63% Traffic 37% Stationary Primary: 42% Traffic 58% Stationary

Contributions to PM10 at London Bloomsbury: 1999 Primary 33% Secondary_UK 16% Secondary_European 16% Other 35% Contributions to PM10 at London Bloomsbury: 2010

Primary 22% Secondary_UK 16% Secondary_European 16% Other 46%

APEG: recap

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• Traffic activity:

– NRTF 10 year plan ‘plan scenario’ for England and Wales, Transport Delivery Plan for Scotland, NRTF (1997) for Northern Ireland

• Traffic technology assumptions:

– Diesel car sales, Cleaner fuels, Early Euro IV, Particulate traps

• Stationary sources from EP68 (DTI, 2000)
• Secondary from a com bination of rural

measurements (sulphate and nitrate) and models (1997 and 2010 NECD)

Baseline scenario ( current policies)

• Traffic measures:

– Particulate traps (2006) – ‘Zero S’ fuels (2005) – Retrofits (2001-2004, illustrated for London)

• Stationary source measures

– Industry (filters, ESP, fuel switch) – Domestic (fuel switch) – Commercial and Public Buildings (filters)

I llustrative package of possible additional m easures

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PM10 = primary + secondary + ‘other’ regression analysis:

PM10 = A.NOx + B.Sulphate + C

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primary combustion PM10 from NOx measurements

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secondary PM10 from sulphate measurements

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‘other’ is the residual

Site specific projections

APEG Receptor Model:

Enable us to m ake a rapid assessm ent of the im pact a range of policies on concentrations in all years

London Bloom sbury 1 9 9 6

20 40 60 80 100 120

01/01/96 09/02/96 18/03/96 22/04/96 27/05/96 04/07/96 08/08/96 12/09/96 17/10/96 21/11/96 ugm-3 secondary contribution primary contribution coarse contribution

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Baseline Projections

• Primary particles:

– NAEI 1 km emissions maps to determine the sectors contributing to local primary PM10 using an ADMS based dispersion matrix, then project each sector both forwards and backwards in time

• Secondary particles
• No change in coarse particle

concentrations

With a 1.3 factor applied to TEOM measurements

Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations

at London Bloomsbury

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

year Annual mean concentration (ugm-3, gravimetric)

PM10_1999_projection Measured_PM10

PM 1 0 LONDON

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With a 1.3 factor applied to TEOM measurements

Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at London Bloomsbury 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

year

PM10_1996_projection PM10_1997_projection PM10_1998_projection PM10_1999_projection Measured_PM10

PM 1 0 LONDON

Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at Belfast Centre 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

year

PM10_1996_projection PM10_1997_projection PM10_1998_projection PM10_1999_projection Measured_PM10

PM 1 0 BELFAST

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Site-specific projections of annual mean PM10 concentrations at Sutton Roadside 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 year

PM10_1997_projection PM10_1998_projection PM10_1999_projection Measured_PM10

PM 1 0 SUTTON Maps of estim ated background concentrations

Built up from components, each

• f which can then be projected

forwards to 2010:

• primary: empirical dispersion

coefficient derived from measurement data, ADMS and NAEI

• secondary: maps of measured

rural sulphate

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Annual m ean sulphate ( µ µ µ µgSO4m -3) Annual m ean sulphate ( µ µ µ µgSO4m -3)

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Maps of estim ated background concentrations

Built up from components, each of which can then be projected forwards to 2010:

• primary: empirical dispersion

coefficient derived from measurement data, ADMS and NAEI

• secondary: maps of measured

rural sulphate

• regional coarse: constant (about

10 µgm -3, gravimetric) Base year m aps

Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2

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2 0 1 0 Baseline m aps

Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2

2 0 1 0 Baseline m aps: Roadside concentrations

Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2

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2 0 1 0 Baseline m aps: London ( 1 9 9 9 base year)

Magenta = Stage 1 Lim it Value, Green = Stage 2

• Total annualised cost: £785m - £1,115m
• Range reflects particular uncertainty in

cost of particulate traps for cars

• Stationary source measures only: £219m
• Stationary measures more effective at

reducing background concentrations, traffic measures more effective at the roadside

Cost of m easures in I llustrative scenario in 2 0 1 0

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Relative to baseline (current policies)

• Change in population weighted

annual mean background concentration: 0.751 µgm -3

• Reduction in the number of urban

major road links exceeding an annual mean of 20 µgm -3 from 34% to 19% of the total number of road links (16% to 3% outside London)

Reductions in PM 1 0 concentrations in 2 0 1 0

UK population 2010 to 2110:

• Gain of 278,000 to 508,000 life years.

81,000 to 212,000 after discounting (range reflects uncertainty in lagtime between exposure and effect)

• Considerable uncertainty, therefore

sensitivity analyses: – zero chronic effects (acute only) – range of coefficients – different cohorts

Health benefits: Chronic ( Long term )

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UK population 2010 to 2110:

• 25,200 fewer respiratory hospital

admissions (additional or brought forward)

• 4,820 fewer deaths brought

forward and 3,690 fewer respiratory hospital admissions (additional or brought forward) due to reductions in SO2

Health benefits: Acute ( Short term )

UK 2010:

• £52.3m reduction in building

soiling

• £0.9m reduction in material

corrosion caused by SO2

• loss of £0.9m due to decrease

in SO2 inputs to crops

• Potential health benefits much

greater

Non-Health benefits

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• Next round of Review and

Assessment may focus on 2010.

• Planning Applications will need

to follow.

• Technical Guidance is being

updated to facilitate

• National policy work does NOT include local road

junctions

I m plications for Local Authorities