Pilot River Basin Methodology and Action Plan Outlines - RBP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Pilot River Basin Methodology and Action Plan

Training Workshop and Inception Seminar, Bangkok, 3-8th Feb 2019

ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Outlines

• RBP introduction
• Disaster’s Profile
• Disaster Risk Management System and Challenge
• Objective of RBP
• Methodology
• Activities Plan
• Expected Outputs/ Outcomes
• Expectation for Capacity Building

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

RBP Introduction

10 20 30 50 100 200 500 1000 Elevation (m)

: River Basin Boundary : Canal and Drainage Channel : Embankment of Moe Yin Gyi Lake

<Legend>

Item Value

Main river length About 210 km Catchment area About 5,300 km2 Main river structures Bago-Sittaung Canal, Irrigation drainage channel system, Dams, Flood shortcut channel, Dikes

• Table. Characteristics of Bago River Basin

 Floods happen in downstream low-lying area not only by Bago river but also by rainfall accumulation in low-lying depression.  Tidal fluctuation affects the water level of Bago river up to the middle stream by backwater effect.

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Disasters’ profile

Mala, 2006 Akash, 2007 Nargis, 2008 Bijli, 2009 Giri, 2010 Mahasen, 2013

Natural Disasters in Myanmar

• 2006 Apr Cyclone Mala
• 2008 May Cyclone Nargis
• 2010 Oct Cyclone GIRI
• 2011 Mar Tarlay Strong Earthquake
• 2011 JJA Heavy Rain & Floods
• 2011 Oct Pakokku Flash Flood
• 2012 JJA Lower/NE Myanmar Floods
• 2012 Nov Shwebo Strong Earthquake
• 2013 May Cyclone Mahasen
• 2013 JJA Heavy rain triggered secondary hazards.
• 2015 July Komen Cyclone
• 2018 June Heavy rainfall (Mawlamyine)

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Disasters’ profile

• Table. Flood damage record in 2018 (as of Sep 2018)
• Fig. Flood by Bago River

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Disaster risk management system and challenges

Challenges

• How to spread the

disaster risk information to local people (community level)

• Communication

problem between about 135 ethnic groups in Myanmar

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

The objectives of RBP

 To set up methodology of flood hazard and risk assessment for the target river basin  To demonstrate the methodology for better understanding and to create a guideline incorporating examples and opinions from AMS  To disseminate the demonstrated methodology to apply the other river basins

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Methodology for disaster risk assessment and mapping

Runoff Model (with HEC-HMS) Inundation Analysis Model (with HEC-RAS) Flood Damage Analysis Model (with HEC-FDA)

Input Output

• Precipitation
• Catchment area
• Land use
• Soil type
• River discharge hydrograph

Input Output

• River cross section
• Manning’s N value
• Land use
• Discharge hydrograph
• Stage hydrograph
• Inundation depth
• Inundation duration

Input Output

• Population
• Property
• Inundation depth
• Inundation duration
• Affected people
• Damage

Data Storage System (with HEC-DSS) Impact of Climate Change

Flood Hazard Mapping Flood Risk Mapping etc. etc. etc.

• Figure. Flow chart of the methodology for

disaster risk assessment and mapping

• Flood hazards and risks will

be analyzed with series of HEC software combining runoff model, inundation model and damage model.

• Outputs will be succeeded

as input of the next model.

• The impact of climate

change will be incorporated to the increase of rainfall and also sea level rise.

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Activity plan

• Data collection for flood inundation modeling by the end of

April, 2019

• Case visits in the Philippines, Malaysia and Japan to learn

best practices in the countries (in March, July and November, 2019 respectively)

• Technical transfer on runoff modeling and flood hazard

modeling through collaborative work in the field study in May, 2019

• Guideline will be developed in this project through RBP

study, then the guideline will be shared with AMS. Finally, the guideline needs to be accepted by AMS incorporating their comments.

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Expected outputs/outcomes

• Flood hazard map and risk map for Bago river

basin

• Enhance the data based management system

through collaborative work for hydrological modeling

• Flood hazard map and risk map can produce

better planning for flood prevention and mitigation, and successively, save people, their livelihood, livestock, crops, etc. by implementing the plan.

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ASEAN PROJECT ON DISASTER RISK REDUCTION BY INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION INTO FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT

Expectations for Capacity Building

• Better understanding for the methodology of

flood risk assessment and for the process of hydrological modeling and for the importance of

• bservation data
• Mutual learning among AMS through the

activities in the project (field survey, case visit and workshops).