Personnel Recovery Enterprise Addressing the #1 challenge to US - - PDF document

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United States Africa Command

Personnel Recovery Enterprise

Addressing the #1 challenge to US operations in Africa

Don Brody | Soham Trivedi | TURTLE Wilson | Harry Yoo The ROCKSTAR Group SYST 699 – System Engineering Capstone Project Spring 2017 George Mason University

Final Presentation

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The United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM) Personnel Recovery (PR) capability and capacity has exceeded its ability to consistently ensure the survivability and recovery of injured US personnel on the continent of Africa. Resources are required to improve, expand and sustain USAFRICOM PR capability and capacity.

Problem Statement

Image Source: hKps://www.airforce.com/careers/detail/pararescue

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UNITED STATES AFRICA COMMAND

(USAFRICOM)

USAFRICOM is one of six of the US Defense Department’s geographic combatant commands and is responsible to the Secretary of Defense for military relations with African nations.

Mission

USAFRICOM, with partners, disrupts and neutralizes transnational threats, protects US personnel and facilities, prevents and mitigates conflict, and builds African partner defense capability and capacity in

• rder to promote regional security, stability and prosperity.

Located in StuKgart, Germany

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Germany Africa

Personnel Recovery CONOPS

The United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM) is headquartered in StuKgart, Germany Both military and contract-owned/ contract-operated (CO/CO) civilian assets are utilized in Personnel Recovery (PR) operations.

Image Sources: Wikipedia; Can Stock Photo

• 2. Command & Control Node contacted
• 1. US person sustains injury
• 3. Higher Headquarters notified
• 4. Long-range transport deployed
• 5. Personnel Recovery team contacted
• 6. Personnel Recovery team deployed
• 7. Injured US person transported to

major airfield and transferred to long- range transport to hospital in Germany

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How big is Africa anyway?

(That’s the US laid over Africa…)

(Alaska and Hawaii not included) Image Source: thetruesize.com Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Agenda

Overview

Background, problem, objectives, and need on USAFRICOM’s PR enterprise

Scope

Focus of this project for the Master’s capstone

Approach

Technical approach to the problem including assumptions/limitation and concepts utilized for modeling and analysis

Model & Analysis

Simulation architecture, model validation, value hierarchy with weights, alternatives, and sensitivity analysis

Results

Results of simulating alternatives including cost versus utility graph

Conclusion

Evaluation, recommendations, future work, and acknowledgements

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Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Key Terms for this Presentation

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DoD

Department of Defense

US government branch coordinating/supervising agencies and functions concerned with national security and US armed forces

USAFRICOM

United States Africa Command

US military command responsible for military operations and relations in Africa; headquarters based out of Germany

COHSASA Council of Health Service Accreditation of South Africa

Accreditation body for healthcare facilities based in Africa

CO/CO Contract Owned / Contract Operated

DoD contractor assets utilized by USAFRICOM

C2 Command and Control

Authority giving direction to aKach forces to accomplish mission

PR

Personnel Recovery

Recovery of military, DoD civilian, DoD contractor personnel, or other personnel who are isolated, missing, detained, or captured in an operational environment

N+ Time N+ time describes the time it takes for an aircrew to go from standby to deploying

as soon as they are notified of a PR event they must respond to

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Role Definitions for Medical Capabilities

Role 1

Point of injury care (first response)

Role 2

Basic primary care w/ surgical capabilities when augmented by a Forward Surgical Team (FST)

Role 3

Facility with secondary care staff and equipment to treat all categories of patients to include resuscitation, damage control surgery, and postoperative treatment.

Role 4

Medical care found in CONUS-based hospitals and other safe havens.

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Objectives

§ Provide recommendations to improve PR Capability and Capacity § Increase Command resource allocations; guide investment decisions

§ Improve the survivability of US personnel in Africa

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

The ROCKSTAR Group’s approach to this project

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Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Simulation Model Random PR Events Generator Probability

• f Success

Sensitivity Analysis Alternatives Development Cost/Utility Analysis Bi-weekly Stakeholder Tag-ups

Evaluate Results

Weight Elicitation Value Hierarchy

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Only DoD-approved Hospital (Kenya) CO/CO Aircraft Bell 412 Casa 212 Image Sources:

Africa SilhoueKe: hKp://www.africaprogresspanel.org/en/ Casa 212: hKp://www.forumavia.ru/ Bell 412: hKps://www.aviationsmilitaires.net/v2/base/view/Model/71.html

USAFRICOM has invested in Contract Owned/Contract Operated (CO/CO) PR capabilities to mitigate some of the military’s shortfall. The ROCKSTAR Group will focus on CO/CO PR capabilities as such data is

publicly available. Local national medical facilities and infrastructure are also in scope for this project.

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Scope

Out of Scope:

The location and allocation of military assets is, and will remain, unknown to team due to the sensitive nature of

• verseas military operations.

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§ Report, locate, support, and recover process has a desired timeline of 6 hours or less. § Clock starts when an injury occurs. § Location of injured personnel is known; no search required. § Local Command and Control (C2) node present to facilitate reporting and airspace requests. § CO/CO airborne PR capabilities operated from major international airport in country of deployment (Burkino Faso, Uganda, Niger). § One aircraft refueling available per mission. § Ground transportation available for US person (e.g., vehicle to drive to nearby airfield or clearing) § Long-range air transport available and ready on continent to support transport to nearest US medical facility (Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, Germany)

Assumptions

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Simulation

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Data Layer Model Layer View Layer Analysis Module Sim Module Database Module Sim View Database View Analysis View Mainframe SQLite Database Sim Properties KML Text File

Simulation Architecture

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Data Layer Model Layer View Layer Analysis Module Sim Module Database Module Sim View Database View Analysis View Mainframe SQLite Database Sim Properties KML Text File

Simulation Architecture

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Analysis Module Sim Module Sim Properties KML Text File Coordinate data in database view of simulation

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Data Layer Model Layer View Layer Analysis Module Sim Module Database Module Sim View Database View Analysis View Mainframe SQLite Database Sim Properties KML Text File

Simulation Architecture

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

User input for simulation parameters

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Data Layer Model Layer View Layer Analysis Module Sim Module Database Module Sim View Database View Analysis View Mainframe SQLite Database Sim Properties KML Text File

Simulation Architecture

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Sim Module Database Module SQLite Database Sim Properties Text File Analysis view with helicopter rescue scenario loaded

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Data Layer Model Layer View Layer Analysis Module Sim Module Database Module Sim View Database View Analysis View Mainframe SQLite Database Sim Properties KML Text File

Simulation Architecture

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

KML output file generated by simulation for a PR event

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Geo-fencing is used by software to define the

boundaries of an area on a map based a list of coordinates Distance between grid coordinates are calculated using the haversine formula

hav(c) = hav(a - b) + sin(a) sin(b) hav(C)

a = length from u to v b = length from u to w c = length form v to w C = angle of corner opposite c

Shortest flight paths between locations are calculated using Dijkstra’s algorithm

Concepts used for modeling

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Model Validation

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Due to the sensitive nature of the details regarding specific PR cases, the model could not be validated with a real-world case. However, the model has been validated in pieces.

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Validating Haversine Formula

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Haversine formula in simulation validated by comparing simulation’s

• utput of distance calculation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration’s (NOAA) latitude/longitude distance calculator

hKp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml

Lat/Long 1 Lat/Long 2 Model Output (mi) NOAA Output (mi) Variance (mi) Variance (%) 10.1234, 10.1234 12.789, 12.789 257.8841 258

• 0.1159
• 0.04%
• 10.1234, -10.1234

12.789, 12.789 2,231.1428 2230 1.1428 0.05%

• 10.1234, -10.1234
• 12.789, -12.789

257.8841 258

• 0.1159
• 0.04%

NOAA calculator rounds

• utputs to nearest whole unit

Validating Geo-fences

Geo-fence coordinates validated through visual inspection of borders shown by Google Maps

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Validating Dijkstra’s Algorithm

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Dijkstra’s’ algorithm in model Hand calculation

Dijkstra’s’ algorithm validated by comparing result computed by model with hand calculation of same case

✔

National neighbors visually verified based on geo-fences for use in shortest path algorithm (Dijkstra’s algorithm)

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Random Number Generator (RNG) Coordinator

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

RNG coordinator allows the use of any of three levels of confidence in simulation. Normal distribution can be set to a confidence of 1-3 σ. Each thread has its own RNG with its own unique seed to ensure reproducibility, yet different data between threads.

Lower Bound Upper Bound Mean Min Max % in Expected Range Normal Distribution

1 million iterations at 1σ (68.27% confidence) 1.0 6.0 3.5

• 8.0

15.6 68.3% 1 million iterations at 2σ (95.45% confidence) 1.0 6.0 3.5

• 2.3

9.6 95.5% 1 million iterations at 3σ (99.73% confidence) 1.0 6.0 3.5

• 0.3

7.5 99.7%

Uniform Distribution

1 million iterations

• 17.0

37.0 10.0

• 17.0

37.0 100.0% 1 million iterations 11.0 28.0 19.5 11.0 28.0 100.0% 1 million iterations

• 28.0
• 11.0
• 19.5
• 28.0
• 11.0

100.0%

Validating the RNG coordinator

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Scenarios in the Simulation

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

In this example scenario, the following occurs:

• 1. PR event takes place.
• 2. Vehicle transports asset closer to CO/CO helicopter.
• 3. Helicopter relocates to new asset location.
• 4. Helicopter requires refueling.
• 5. Helicopter transports asset to airport where fixed-

wing has relocated to.

• 6. Fixed wing takes asset to airport nearest hospital.
• 7. Vehicle transports asset to hospital.

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Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Sensitivity Analysis

The effect of airfield availability to success/failure map All airfields in sim database turned on Subset of airfields in sim database turned on

(Based on 1,000 years of simulated PR events)

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Sensitivity Analysis

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview P R O B A B I L I T Y Value Analyzed Value (Mean N+ Time) Hospital Hosp w/ in Six Pickup w/in Six COHSASA DOD Hosp DOD Approve d Surgical Team Helo Fixed- Wing Mil Trans Vehicle Mean Pickup Time Mean Hosp Time Mean Distance N+ Time 6.0 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.62 0.12 0.26 0.00 0.22 0.81 0.12 0.99 7.4 11.6 1098 w/ Role 2,3 5.0 0.67 0.03 0.20 0.64 0.11 0.26 0.00 0.26 0.83 0.11 0.99 7.0 11.1 1079 (min 0.5 @ <= 3) 4.0 0.67 0.05 0.25 0.65 0.10 0.25 0.00 0.31 0.85 0.10 0.99 6.5 10.5 1068 (min 1.0 @ >= 3) 3.0 0.67 0.07 0.29 0.68 0.09 0.23 0.00 0.32 0.85 0.09 0.99 6.1 10.1 1054 iteraVons = 50 2.0 0.67 0.10 0.38 0.71 0.07 0.22 0.00 0.33 0.87 0.07 0.99 5.7 9.6 1038 1.0 0.67 0.11 0.44 0.72 0.07 0.21 0.00 0.36 0.87 0.07 0.99 5.2 9.2 965 N+ Time 6.0 0.67 0.02 0.11 0.00 0.44 0.56 0.00 0.28 0.53 0.44 1.00 8.2 14.1 1915 w/ Role 3 5.0 0.67 0.02 0.13 0.00 0.43 0.57 0.00 0.29 0.54 0.43 1.00 7.8 13.7 1906 (min 0.5 @ <= 3) 4.0 0.67 0.03 0.17 0.00 0.42 0.58 0.00 0.30 0.55 0.42 1.00 7.4 13.2 1904 (min 1.0 @ >= 3) 3.0 0.67 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.41 0.59 0.00 0.30 0.57 0.41 1.00 7.1 12.8 1892 iteraVons = 50 2.0 0.67 0.06 0.24 0.00 0.39 0.62 0.00 0.31 0.59 0.39 1.00 6.7 12.4 1878 1.0 0.67 0.06 0.32 0.00 0.38 0.62 0.00 0.32 0.59 0.38 1.00 6.3 12.1 1878 (Time in hours; distance in miles) 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Probability of Success N+ Time (hours)

Probability of Success vs. N+ Time

Hospital within 6 hrs (Role 2,3) Hospital within 6 hrs (Role 3) Pickup within 6 hrs (Role 2,3) Pickup within 6 hrs (Role 3)

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Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Alternatives

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Alternatives

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Short Name SoluVon AlternaVve DescripVon

Deploy Role 2's Strategically deploy Role 2 medical treatment faciliVes in areas with a high probability of injury; focus on dense populaVon of US service members Improve COHSASA Partner with Republic of South Africa to expand COHSASA accreditaVon program to meet US standards for Role 2 treatment (THRESHOLD) / Role 3 (OBJECTIVE) Develop Role 2's Develop Role 2 medical treatment capability AND capacity within key African NaVons within the Trans Sahel Increase Aircrew Increase aircrew to reduce N+ Vme Increase African PR C&C Develop African NaVon airborne Personnel Recovery capability and capacity; source for recovery missions Increase CO/CO Expand current US CO/CO Personnel Recovery capabiliVes Airdrop Supplies Develop air drop deployable Mobile Field Surgical Team (MFST)-like capability; deliver blood and medical supplies to stabilize injured for transport Blood Drops Forward deploy Role 2 medical equipment supplies in strategic locaVons; includes packed red blood cells Improve COHSASA + Increase Aircrew Improve COHSASA + Increase Aircrew

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Cost Research

Costs derived and estimated from combinations of medical training, supplies, facilities, and flight hours Medical care baseline cost extracted from Role level and four-tier care break down

§ Role 1 point of incident care; sunk operating cost $0.0 § Role 2 / Primary care $0.4M § Role 2 / Primary care with light surgical augmentation $1.5M § Role 3 / Secondary care ($350K/bed) $35.0M

Training baseline derived from medical school costs

§ Medical School and Residency $0.8M

Equipment baseline derived from US Air Force Expeditionary Medical Support (EMEDS)+

§ ~10 beds (EMEDS+10) @ $350/bed $3.5M

African PR capability and capacity includes pilot and aircraft cost

§ Aircraft, aircrew, medical team, DoD contract $6.5M

Airdrop medical supplies from C-130J extracted from US Air Force Mobile Field Surgical Team (MFST) equipment

§ Includes C-130J per hour operating cost estimated at 6 hrs $100K

Forward deployed equipment based on MFST; requires blood refrigeration

§ 5 backpacks (350-lb gear) @ $14K and solar refrigeration @ $2K $16K Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview 30 Personnel Recovery Capability & Capacity Personnel Survivability 0.87 Accessibility 0.35 Medical Assistance 0.33 Medical Equipment 0.32 International Relationship 0.13 Capability 0.35 Capacity 0.28 Willingness 0.37

Value Hierarchy with Weights

Value hierarchy approved by USAFRICOM. Weights were elicited during an interview session with USAFRICOM utilizing the swing weight method.

Weights elicited via interview with sponsor

Overall PR capability and capacity value broken down into survivability of personnel and relationship with African host nations

Survivability assessed based on accessibility via vehicle/aircraft, availability of trained medical personnel, and availability of medical equipment Int’l relationship assessed based on capability

• f level of training host nation (HN) personnel

possess, capacity of HN personnel based on equipment, and willingness of HN personnel to provide support

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

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Cost vs. Utility Graph

Deploy Role 2's Improve COHSASA Develop Role 2's Increase Aircrew Increase African PR C&C Increase CO/CO Air Drop Supplies Blood Drops Improve COHSASA + Increase Aircrew $- $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Cost Utility

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview The “obvious solution” as noted by

• USAFRICOM. But what else could be done?

Improving COHSASA hospitals offers win-win to both USAFRICOM and Africans. However, utility analysis did not yield significant results Sensitivity analysis highlighted significance of lowering N+ time, which can be accomplished by increasing aircrew size Combining COHSASA improvement and increased aircrew size yielded greater utility while keeping cost down Air dropping supplies for immediate tactical field care yielded relatively high utility while being one of the lowest cost options 32 Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Conclusion

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Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Final Recommendations

Based on cost/utility analysis and sensitivity analysis, The ROCKSTAR Group recommends considering 3 alternatives:

• Increasing aircrew size to reduce N+ time
• Increasing aircrew size while also partnering with South Africa to expand the COHSASA

accreditation program to meet US standards

• Develop air drop deployable Mobile Field Surgical Team (MFST)-like capability in
• rder to deliver blood and medical supplies to stabilize the injured for transport

Alternative Cost * Utility Increase Aircrew $7,000,000 87.0 Improve COHSASA + Increase Aircrew $7,385,000 93.4 Air Drop Supplies $14,000 68.4 During sensitivity analysis, it was noted that reducing N+ time has a significant impact on the probability of success to a PR mission. In addition to reducing N+ time, improving COHSASA standards gives USAFRICOM more hospitals within Africa to work with while also improving health care for local African citizens, thus improving international relationships. Air dropping supplies for stabilizing injured personnel increases survivability by offering a quicker solution for tactical field care without requiring the step of geKing the injured personnel on an aircraft

* Costs are estimated based on research. More precise cost modeling desired for future work.

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Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Future Work

² Improving simulation to allow for the testing of more parameters ² More precise cost modeling of alternatives ² Evaluating additional airfields for potential use by USAFRICOM to expand PR capability and capacity ² Assessing how drones could potentially provide air drops of blood and medical supplies for immediate tactical field care

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Acknowledgements

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Lt Col John Graver, USAF

Directorate of Operations and Cyber (J3) United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM)

LTC Marvin King, USA

Directorate of Resources and Assessment (J8) United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM)

• Dr. Kathryn Laskey

Professor Systems Engineering and Operations Research (SEOR) George Mason University (GMU)

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview

Questions

We are The ROCKSTAR Group and we approve this message! Don Brody | Soham Trivedi | TURTLE Wilson | Harry Yoo

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Backups

Value Functions

38 Survivability = 1.00 DescripTons Value FuncTons Weights Accessibility How accessible is the soluVon? 0.35

Not Accessible No soluVon accessible 0.00 % of max value 1.00 Accessible by Vehicle 50 SoluVon accessible by vehicle 1 0.50 Accessible by Aircraf 95 SoluVon accessible by aircraf 2 0.95 Accessible by Vehicle and Aircraf 100 SoluVon accessible by a vehicle and aircraf 3 1.00

Medical Assistance What type of medical assistance? 0.33

No care No medical services required or given 0.00 % of max value 0.95 Assistance from local African Hospital 5 Nearest medical "facility" to point of injury/incident 1 0.05 Assistance from African COHSASA-cerVfied Hospital 10 African medical facility meeVng a set of established and regulated set of rules that ensure safety of pracVce 2 0.10 Assistance from TacVcal Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) 70 Point of injury/incident care from aiached or assigned medical staff 3 0.70 Assistance from Field Surgical Team 80 Mobile surgical teams deployed to or adjacent to major airfields or hubs 4 0.80 Assistance from DoD Approved Hospital / Allied NaVon 90 African conVnental medical facility or European Ally medical facility meeVng DoD standards for treatment 5 0.90 Assistance from DoD Operated Hospital 100 DoD regional medical facility 6 1.00

Medical Equipment What type of equipment is available? 0.32

No Equipment No medical equipment or supplies available to treat injury 0.00 % of max value 0.90 Local Accessible Equipment 5 Local medical equipment used; African naVon 1 0.05 US Operated Field Accessible Equipment 70 US operated and maintained equipment 2 0.70 COHSASA Hospital Equipment 80 Medical equipment from or in hospital that is COHSASA cerVfied and regulated for operaVons 3 0.80 DoD Approved/Allied Hospital Equipment 95 Medical equipment from or in a DoD approved or Allied hospital 4 0.95 DoD Operated Hospital Equipment 100 DoD maintained and cerVfied equipment 5 1.00

InternaTonal RelaTonship = 0.15 DescripTons Value FuncTons Weights Capability What capability is available? 0.35

No Medical Training No medical capability to support soluVon exsists 0.00 % of max value 0.95 Basic Medical Training 10 Basic medical skill; First Aid 1 0.10 Intermediate Medical Training 70 Intermediate medical skill; TacVcal Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) or First Person on Scene Intermediate Training 2 0.70 Advanced Medical Training and ability to transport 100 Surgical experVse; Field Surgical Team; ground and air transportaVon 3 1.00

Capacity How much capacity is present? 0.28

No Medical Care No medical capacity to support or execut a soluVon 0.00 % of max value 0.75 Primary Care 20 General medical capacity 1 0.20 Secondary Care 40 Specified experVse 2 0.40 TerVary Care 90 Specialized equipment combined with experVse 3 0.90 Quaternary Care 100 Highly specialized and injury specific for over 10 personnel 4 1.00

Willingness How willing is an enVty to assist? 0.37

No Willingness No willingness to execute or support soluVon 0.00 % of max value 1.00 Limited Willingness 25 Willing to entertain discussion of but not support soluVon 1 0.25 Willing 100 Full willingness to support soluVon 2 1.00

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Utility Calculations

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SoluTon AlternaTve DescripTon Short Name Personnel Survivability InternaVonal RelaVonship UTlity Accessibility Med Assistance Med Equipment Capability Capacity Willingness Baseline alternaVve; no changes (one DoD-approved hospital in Kenya, current CO/CO assets) Baseline 100 100 100 87.0 Strategically deploy "Role 2" medical treatment faciliVes in areas with a high probability of injury; focus on dense populaVon of US service members Deploy Role 2's 80 95 49.8 Partner with Republic of South Africa to expand COHSASA accreditaVon program to meet US standards for "Role 2" treatment (THRESHOLD) / "Role 3 " (OBJECTIVE) Improve COHSASA 80 95 70 40 25 56.2 Develop "Role 2"medical treatment capability AND capacity within key African NaVons within the Trans Sahel Develop Role 2's 80 95 70 40 25 56.2 Increase aircrew to reduce N+ Vme Increase Aircrew 100 100 100 87.0 Develop African NaVon airborne Personnel Recovery capability and capacity; source for recovery missions Increase African PR C&C 100 5 5 10 20 25 35.4 Expand current US CO/CO Personnel Recovery capabiliVes Increase CO/CO 100 100 100 87.0 Develop air drop deployable Mobile Field Surgical Team (MFST)-like capability; deliver blood and medical supplies to stablize injured for transport Air Drop Supplies 95 70 70 68.4 Forward deploy Role 2 medial equipment supplies in strategic locaVons; includes packed red blood cells Blood Drops 50 70 70 54.9 Deliver Role 2 medical supplies by drone; dependency on medical support staff present to use provided supplies Drone Drop Supplies 95 70 70 68.4 Improve COHSASA + Increase Aircrew COHSASA+Aircrew 100 100 100 70 40 25 93.4

Project Schedule

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Earned Value Management (EVM) Roles and Responsibilities

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Don Brody Technical Lead

Responsible for leading modeling, simulation, and analysis

Soham Trivedi Lead Systems Engineer

Responsible for requirements development, data gathering, and documentation

TURTLE Wilson Subject MaKer Expert & USAFRICOM Liaison

Responsible for identifying and advising on stakeholder needs and facilitating communications with primary stakeholder

Harry Yoo Project Manager

Overall responsibility of planning, design, execution, controlling, and closure of project

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Work Breakdown Structure

43 USAFRICOM PR Capability and Capacity Research 1.0

Background 1.1 Problem & Scope 1.2 Project Proposal 1.3

Model 2.0

Analysis Approach 2.1 Data Gathering 2.2 Model Development 2.3

Recommendations 3.0

Analysis of Results 3.1

Deliverable Development 4.0

Preliminary Problem Definition Presentation 4.1 Problem Definition and Scope Presentation 4.2 Project Proposal Document 4.3 Progress Report Presentations 4.4 Final Report 4.5 Final Presentation 4.6 Website 4.7

Stakeholder Interaction 5.0

Class AKendance 5.1 Sponsor Tag-ups 5.2

Project Management 6.0

Activity Tracker 6.1 Project Plan 6.2 Earned Value Management 6.3

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Background

Image Source: Google Earth

§ 80+ PR missions occurred over the past three years (PR data shown based on 2014 and 2015 data) § Over 90% of those PR events occurred along the central belt of Africa § Approximately 90% of PR events are non-combat related

The USAFRICOM PR enterprise is a complex and coordinated system of people,

processes, and capabilities essential to the proper care of US personnel in Africa.

For the Department of Defense, PR is a critical enabler of the US National Military Strategy to foster stability, build peacekeeping capacity, and counter transregional and violent extremism

Personnel Recovery (PR) Event

Data Source: USAFRICOM Subject MaKer Experts

Approach Scope Model & Analysis Results Conclusion Overview