Paris Climate Agreement Opportunities for Agriculture and land use - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

JOHN MULDOWNEY

J O H N . M U L D O W N E Y @ A G R I C U L T U R E . G O V . I E

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND THE MARINE FEBRUARY 2016

Paris Climate Agreement – Opportunities for Agriculture and land use

Presentation Overview

• IPCC 5th Assessment report
• UNFCCC
• Paris agreement
• EU Developments
• Conclusions

Climate change proven by science : IPCC (2013)

 Warming of the climate

systems is unequivocal and

• bserved changes are

unprecedented on scales of decades to millennia.

 Human influence on the

climate system is clear.

 Continued emissions of

greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes to the atmosphere, land and

• ceans in all regions of the

globe.

 Limit climate change to 2°C

compared to pre-industrial level

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Agriculture and climate nexus in a world wide context:

 Agriculture and forestry serve multiple objectives; food

production, bioenergy, materials

• Agriculture will have to feed a growing and wealthier global population of nine

billion people by 2050 will require a 60% increase in global food production (2013).

 Agriculture and Forestry face many challenges

• Degrading soils, extreme weather events..
• Changes in yields and productivity leading to reduced GDP from agriculture

and fluctuations of world market prices, increased risk of hunger…

• Competition for land between activities
• Competition for scarce water resources

By 2050, the planet will need to produce 70% more food, with less land, water and energy while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions

UNFCCC

 Climate Change is recognised at Rio Convention  Objective is to stabilise atmospheric GHG

concentrations

 Adopted in 1992, entered into force in 1994

 195 Parties

 Bodies of the UNFCCC

 SBI  SBSTA  Other temporary bodies

 1997 – Kyoto Protocol

 Entered into force in 2005  Divide developed / developing countries  Covered only +/- 12% of global emissions

 2015 – Paris Agreement

 Recognition that the world has changed  A changed UN approach : balance between 'top down' and

'bottom up'

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UNFCCC - Agreements

CCAFS Info note

The Paris Agreement

 Legally binding, Universal Agreement  Long-term goal  5-year ambition cycle  Transparency and accountability  Support for developing countries

11

Impact of the INDC on global emissions

(GtC02e, total excluding sinks) and percent change in emission intensity per unit of GDP

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Source: POLES – JRC Model

Agriculture in the Paris Agreement

Food Security, ending Hunger and Food Production

 Preamble - ‘Recognizing the fundamental priority of safeguarding food

security and ending hunger, and the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate change,’

 Article 2, 1c – ‘Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of

climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;’ Ambition

 Article 2, 1a – ‘Holding the increase in the global average temperature

to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;’

Agriculture in SBSTA?

9 submissions made :

• New Zealand
• Brazil
• Uruguay
• Africa Group (Sudan)
• Republic of Korea
• South Africa
• USA
• Chile
• EU
• => Highlighting

mainly food production 4 Workshops in 2015 / 2016

A.

Development of early warning systems and contingency plans in relation to extreme weather events and its effects such as desertification, drought, floods, landslides, storm surge, soil erosion, and saline water intrusion;

B.

Assessment of risk and vulnerability of agricultural systems to different climate change scenarios at regional, national and local levels, including but not limited to pests and diseases;

C.

Identification of adaptation measures, taking into account the diversity of the agricultural systems, indigenous knowledge systems and the differences in scale as well as possible co-benefits and sharing experiences in research and development and on the ground activities, including socioeconomic, environmental and gender aspects;

D.

Identification and assessment of agricultural practices and technologies to enhance productivity in a sustainable manner, food security and resilience, considering the differences in agro-ecological zones and farming systems, such as different grassland and cropland practices and systems

The EU INDC

 Submitted on the 6th March 2015  An absolute emission reduction target of at least

40% versus 1990

 The land use sector is included yet "How" still to be

decided

EU Climate Policy medium term:

key policy instruments

GHG Target for 2030: -40% compared to 1990

EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)

• 43% compared to 2005

Non ETS sectors (transport, buildings, waste, agriculture)

• 30% compared to 2005

28 Member State targets stretching from 0% to -40% Question

• ver how

to include CO2 from LULUCF CH4 and N2O from agriculture included

EU Council Conclusions – Oct 2014

Paragraph 2.14

 the multiple objectives of the agriculture and land use

sector, with their lower mitigation potential....

 .....to ensure coherence between the EU's food security and

climate change objectives.

 .....to examine the best means of encouraging the

sustainable intensification of food production, while

• ptimising the sector's contribution to greenhouse gas

mitigation and sequestration, including through afforestation.

 Policy on how to include.....

EU consultations on non-ETS sectors in the 2030 CEF

 Launched 25/03/2015 for 12 weeks  Consultation on Effort Sharing proposal in a 2030

perspective.

 Consultation on the integration of agriculture,

forestry and other land use into the 2030 EU CEF.

 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2015

032501_en.htm

 Workshop held 14&15th Sept 2015

Forestry

 Significant potential as a carbon sink  Forest sinks NOT included in the 2013-2020

accounting period for the NETS

 ARD included in Kyoto CP1 (2008-2012)  Estimated that between 2.5-3MtCO2e sequestered per annum

• ver this period

 New National Forestry Programme 2014 - 2020

 €482m new investment; target 44,oooha afforestation by 2020  3.4 – 4.4 MtCO2e sequestered per annum over this period ARD  Gross demand to increase to 3.3 M m3 by 2020 on an all island

basis

Policy framework must do three things:

 Promote sustainable intensification of food

production to reduce the carbon intensity of food production and to contribute to both food security and greenhouse gas mitigation objectives;

 Encourage sustainable land management and forest

product uses that contribute to climate change mitigation and retain and enhance soil and forest carbon stocks;

 Seek to move as far along the road to carbon

neutrality as is possible in cost-effective terms, while not compromising our capacity for sustainable food production.

Conclusions

 Agriculture is a contributor to Climate Change  Agriculture is impacted by Climate Change  Demand for food is increasing  The unique role of agriculture & forestry in the global

climate change response is increasingly recognized

 EU Council, Paris agreement  Synergies between mitigation and adaptation  Links with Food security, Social issues  There is a need for a more integrated strategy on the use of

land

 Agriculture and Land use in Climate pledges

Conclusions

 Ireland is at a Good starting point

 Emissions per unit of output and absolute emissions  Climate action & Low carbon development bill  Soil and land management  Existing Science & Experiences  Knowledge sharing & Transfer to farmers

 Foodwise 2025

 Need to demonstrate credentials & show focus on improvement

 Acting now can help create point of difference..........  UNFCCC provides ideal discussion forum