World Climate: Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement Agenda 1. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

World Climate:

Negotiating a Global Climate Agreement

Agenda

• 1. Introduction and schedule
• 2. Assign Roles
• 3. The World Climate

Negotiation

• 4. Debrief and your feedback

Climate Change: Carbon Cycle

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Climate Change: Greenhouse Gases

4

Emissions exceed IPCC Worst-case Scenario:

CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels (GtC/year)

Actual CO2 Emissions vs. IPCC Assumptions

US Global Change Research Program: downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf 2008-2009 data: Manning et al. (2010), Nature Geoscience. Vol. 3; June, 376-377. 2010: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/perlim_2009_2010_estimates.html

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 6 7 8 9

IPCC Emissions Scenarios IPCC Worst Case (A1FI) Actual Emissions

2010: 9.14 GtC

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Atmospheric CO2 2011: 392 ppm 40% above pre-industrial

Ramifications of Increased Atmospheric CO2

 Rising atmospheric temperatures  Rising sea levels (more H2O, warm H2O expands  Shoreline destabilization  More extreme weather patterns/fluctuations  Feedback loops – i.e sea ice, permafrost  Ocean acidification and current changes  Biological changes – ranges, timing

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What can we do??

 Mitigation: efforts to reduce and/or prevent Greenhouse

Gas Emissions

 Adaptation: Adjustments that society/environment

makes to limit negative effects of climate change UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change COP: Conference of the Parties

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What is the UNFCCC/COP?

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 UNFCCC Conference of the Parties – the decision

making body of the Convention

 COP Conference – Annual, formal meeting of the

Convention to assess progress and make decisions

What is a World Climate Simulation?

 https:/www.climateinteractive.org/world-climate-project/

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Purpose of World Climate Simulation

 To improve understanding of important climate dynamics  To help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-

reviewed science

Process

 Introduce yourselves to members of your delegation  Read Briefing Memo for your nation or bloc  15 minutes—Speed Research! Look up participating

countries, involvement in climate change mitigation, role in global policy

Are these terms familiar?

 2 Degrees  350.org/350 ppm

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0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C 1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F 0 °F IPCC AR4

1.8 °F 3.6 °F 5.4 °F 7.2 °F 9.0 °F 0 °F 0 °C 1.0 °C 2.0 °C 3.0 °C 4.0 °C 5.0 °C

3.5 °C 6.3 ° F 5.3 °C 9.5 °F 7.4 °C 13.3 °F

MIT Joint Program

• n Global Change

(Sokolov et al. 2009, Journal of Climate) Projected mean temp increase by 2100 under BAU

10.8 °F 6.0 °C

Welcome Delegates UN Climate Summit

Our Global Task

Manage the Unavoidable and Avoid the Unmanageable

Consider this:

 Achieve emissions reduction commitments to stabilize

GHG levels by 2100 at a level that limits global warming to no more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels.

 Agree on a deal to share costs of mitigation and adaptation

fund to aid less developed nations.

Process: Part II

Begin to formulate your negotiating strategy

 What are your vital interests? What is politically

feasible in your nation/bloc?

 What do you need from the other nations/blocs?

What can you offer them?

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Task 1: Emissions

 Each delegation will set its own fossil fuel emissions

• targets. You will set:

– In what year will GHG emissions in your bloc stop

growing (if any)?

– In what year (if desired), will your GHG emissions

begin to fall?

– If emissions will fall, at what rate (% per year)?  REDD policies:



Deforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 1 continues BAU deforestation path, 0 gradually eliminates deforestation over coming decades.



Afforestation: 0 – 1 scale. 0 = no new area set aside for afforestation; 1 = maximum feasible afforestation area.

Task 2: Burden Sharing

 We are creating the “UN Global Fund for

Mitigation and Adaptation” for

 Disaster relief  Food and water  Immigration and refugees  Mitigation — Investing in any necessary non-cost-saving

mitigation to achieve Task 1 goals

 Total cost is $100 Billion per year (ramping up to

that level by 2020)

 How much will you contribute?  How much should others contribute?  Terms?

Proposal Form

 Region: ____________  CO2 Emissions growth stop year:

_______

 CO2 Emissions decline start year:

_______

 Fractional rate of decline (%/year):

______

 REDD+ (Reduction in Emissions from Deforestation

and land Degradation)_______

India, Other Developed, Other Developing only: (1 = no reduction from BAU; 0 = max reduction)

 Afforestation (net new forest area) _______

All nations/regions: (0 = no new afforestation area; 1 = maximum feasible)

 Your region’s contribution to fund for

mitigation and adaptation ($B/year): _______

After you prepare your proposal

2 minute plenary presentation by representative of each delegation describing their emissions proposal, their Fund commitment and why. Designate a representative to give your Bloc’s speech.

Proposal Summary

Emissions Growth Stop Year Emissions Reduction Start Year Annual Emissions Reduction

(%/year)

REDD

(1 = BAU; 0 = zero emissions)

New Afforestation Area

(0-1 [max feasible])

Contribution to (or Draw

• n) Fund

($ Billion/yr)

Developed Countries

NA

Developing Countries Less Developed Example 2075 2085 1.0%/year 0.8 0.1 $10 B/yr

Debrief Round 1

Lobbying Session

 Take 15 minutes outside the plenary hall – mingling

among groups

 Discuss ways to meet needs/fulfill global obligations

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Round 2 Debrief Round 2

Policymaker Mental Models

“Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties.”

– Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator

for Costa Rica, Sept 2008 (Named to lead UNFCCC, May 2010)

Impact of 1 Meter SLR

1 Meter

Head of State Meeting, Copenhagen, Dec 2009

“Let us suppose 100 percent reduction, that is, no CO2 in the developed countries

• anymore. Even then, with the [target of]

two degrees, you have to reduce carbon emissions in the developing countries. That is the truth.” — Chancellor Angela Merkel. “People tend to forget where it is from. In the past 200 years of industrialization developed countries contributed more than 80 percent of emissions. Whoever created this problem is responsible for the catastrophe we are facing.” — Chinese deputy foreign minister He Yafei “If there is no sense of mutuality in this process, it is going to be difficult for us to ever move forward in a significant way.” —President Barack Obama

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,692861,00.html

A Sense of Urgency…

 UNFCCC timeline  Future of COP/UNFCCC  COP21

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UNFCC C Created

Kyoto Protocol adopted; Annex I vs. Non-Annex I put into practice Copenhagen fails to replace Kyoto Protocol New mandate to write agreement by 2015 for 2020 (ADP) Parties decide to submit their

• wn

contributions during 2015 (INDCs)

Rio 1992 COP3 1997 COP15 2009

HOW WE GOT HERE

COP17 2011 COP19 2013

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Debrief

 Now that you have experienced this level of global

negotiation, what do you feel called to do?

 What were your assumptions at the beginning and how

were they changed as the simulation went on?

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Role of World Climate Simulation in the Classroom:

What potential benefits/downsides do you see with this classroom activity?

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Thank you!

For more information:

climateinteractive.org