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Implications of the Paris Agreement on Japans climate policy Brookings event: Ensuring the success of the post-Paris climate agenda: U.S.- Japan relations on the global stage Takeshi Kuramochi Washington DC, 20 December 2016 About

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Brookings event: “Ensuring the success of the post-Paris climate agenda: U.S.-Japan relations on the global stage”

Implications of the Paris Agreement on Japan’s climate policy

Takeshi Kuramochi Washington DC, 20 December 2016

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About NewClimate Institute

Non-profit research institute, founded Nov. 2014 Offices: Cologne and Berlin, Germany Areas of expertise

  • Climate negotiations
  • Tracking climate action
  • Climate and development
  • Climate finance
  • Carbon market mechanisms
  • Sustainable energy

Funders

  • Governments: German, Dutch, Swedish, Finnish
  • Foundations: CIFF, ClimateWorks, ECF, Mercator
  • NGOs: Greenpeace, Climate Action Network, CDP
  • Business: We Mean Business, Allianz

20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 2

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Overview of Japan’s current climate mitigation policies

2030 target (NDC): -26% vs. 2013 level

  • Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (2016)

Recent energy and climate policy developments

  • 2014 Basic Energy Plan (+ 2015 long-term demand and supply outlook)
  • Act on Rational Use and Proper Management of Fluorocarbons (2015)
  • Feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme for renewables
  • Global Warming Countermeasures Tax
  • Low-Carbon City Promotion Act

Long-term decarbonization strategy under the Paris Agreement currently in preparation

  • Advisory councils set up under both METI and MOE
  • (Current target: 80% reduction by 2050)

20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 3

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Japan’s power sector: before and after Fukushima

Since Fukushima: Demand continues to decrease “Nuclear gap” mostly filled by fossils

  • 18 GW of coal power

construction plans*

  • 32% share in 2030 if all built*

25 nuclear reactors applied for restart**

  • 3 in operation
  • 16-17% share in 2030 if all 25

restarted***

Strong RE growth due to FIT

Source: Historical values based on IEA (2016) 20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 4 *: As of November 2015 (Kuriyama and Kuramochi, 2015) **: As of December 2016, incl. those under periodical examination (JAIF, 2016) ***: Extended 60-year lifetime assumed

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1990 2005 2010 2015 2030 (INDC)

TWh/yr Year

Renewables Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal

10.6%

16.4% 34.2%

27.2% 25.4% 28.0%

39.4%

Post-Fukushima Pre-Fukushima

22-24% 20-22% 27% 26%

Plan

(provisional)

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Assessment of Japan’s climate policy ambition and effort

20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 5

Climate Action Tracker:

  • NDC target sufficiently ambitious (vs. 2 °C)?  No
  • Current policies enough to meet the target?  No

Source: Climate Action Tracker (2016)

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NDCs are not enough for 2 °C, let alone 1.5 °C…

20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 6 Source: UNEP (2016)

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Implications of “well below 2 °C”

  • n developed countries

For OECD countries:

  • Net-zero energy- & industry-

CO2 emissions by 2050

  • Decarbonized electricity even

earlier

  • Large-scale deployment of

negative emission technologies

Need for strong policies beyond energy efficiency and “low-hanging fruit”

  • Resource efficiency
  • Energy service demand

reduction

Source: Adapted from Sterl et al. (2016). 20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 7

Region Emissions type

With negative emission technologies1 < 1.5°C (50% chance) “well below 2°C” < 2°C (66% chance) Compatible with the Paris Agreement Worldwide Energy- and industry- related CO2 emissions

2055 2060

2065 OECD average Energy- and industry- related CO2 emissions

2045 2050

2055 Electricity- related CO2 emissions

2035 2040

2045 CO2 emissions from coal

2030 2035

2040

Years (median) for reaching zero

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Example of sector transformation: Adoption of electric vehicles

All new passenger vehicle sales to be (PH)EVs before 2040 Requires diffusion at unprecedented speed

  • Current shares <1% in

Japan & US*

  • Japan’s current target:

50-70% “next-generation vehicles”** by 2030

20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 8

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Percemtage of (PH)EVs in new cars sold Year

Total new sales of EVs

NL current policies (NEV) NL planned policies (NEV) NL ECN Scenario electrification NL aspirational target Paris Agreement (with negative emissions) Paris Agreement (w/o negative emissions)

*: EVObsession (2016) **: Government of Japan (2015). Also includes hybrids, clean diesel and natural gas vehicles) Source: Sterl et al. (2016)

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Changes already happening? Norway: 28% (PH)EV share in new car registrations for Jan-Jul 2016* The Netherlands “Energy Agenda” (Dec. 2016):

  • nly “zero-emission” cars sold from 2035**

Germany (Oct. 2016): Federal Council (Bundesrat) passed a non-binding resolution calling for a ban on combustion engine cars by 2030*** Japan: Toyota to mass-produce EVs (Nov. 2016)****

Example of sector transformation: Adoption of electric vehicles

*: The Government of the Netherlands (2016); **: EVObsession (2016); ***: The Independent (2016); ****: Nikkei (2016). www.newclimate.org 9 20/12/2016

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Summary

Developed countries may need to achieve net zero energy- and industry CO2 emissions by 2050 to achieve the Paris Agreement goals; All sectors need to develop long-term strategies toward net-zero emissions and implement them, regardless of current efficiency and emission levels; In some sectors, changes are already happening. As a high-tech powerhouse, Japan can potentially lead the change.

20/12/2016 www.newclimate.org 10

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Contact details:

Thank you for your attention!

www.newclimate.org Takeshi Kuramochi t.kuramochi@newclimate.org

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References

Climate Action Tracker, 2016. Country assessment: Japan. Climate Action Tracker (Climate Analytics, Ecofys, NewClimate Institute). www.climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan.html [accessed 18 December, 2016] EVObsession, 2016. Electric vehicle sales estimates: July 2016. http://evobsession.com/norwegian-electric-vehicle-sales- estimates-july-2016/ [accessed 18 December, 2016] Government of Japan, 2015. Japan’s Second Biennial Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Government of Japan. Government of the Netherlands, 2016. Energieagenda. Rapport. https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/rapporten/2016/12/07/ea [accessed 18 December, 2016] IEA, 2016. Energy Balances of OECD Countries: 2016 Edition. Paris, France. International Energy Agency. Kuriyama, A. & Kuramochi, T., 2015. Impact Of The Increasing Number Of Coal-Fired Power Plants On Japan’s Mid- And Long-Term Reduction Targets – Towards Developing A Framework For Global Warming Mitigation Measures For The Entire Power Sector. IGES Working Paper No.WP1503. Hayama, Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES). Nikkei, 2016. Toyota to mass-produce electric vehicles. 7 November. http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Toyota-to- mass-produce-electric-vehicles [accessed 18 December, 2016] Sterl, S., Höhne, N. & Kuramochi, T., 2016. What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands? NewClimate Institute. The Independent, 2016. Germany pushes to ban petrol-fuelled cars within next 20 years. 10 October. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-petrol-car-ban-no-combustion-diesel-vehicles-2030-a7354281.html [accessed 18 December, 2016] UNEP, 2016. UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2016. UN Environment Programme. Nairobi. www.newclimate.org