Opportunity Day Presentation | 1Q/15 The Stock Exchange of Thailand - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Opportunity Day Presentation | 1Q/15 The Stock Exchange of Thailand - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Opportunity Day Presentation | 1Q/15 The Stock Exchange of Thailand May 25, 2015 DISCLAIMER This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated
This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. PTTGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTTGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
DISCLAIMER
2
3
- Overview
- Strategic Actions Progress
- Financial Performance
- Market Outlook
AGENDA
4
Crude Oil Price : Continue being cautious
Feedstock Management Expense Budgeting Hedging Morning War Room
Crude Oil price has rebounded, while extraordinarily high net long
Production Optimization and Inventory Management
Crack Spread and Stock Gain/Loss: Engaged 1/3 of target volume
ACTIVELY ONGOING MONITORING
Uncertain Economies
5
- Overview
- Strategic Actions Progress
- Financial Performance
- Market Outlook
AGENDA
6
MORE CLARITY ON STRATEGIES WITH PRUDENT ROADMAP
REFINERY AROMATICS Ethylene Propylene Mixed C4 Benzene
mLLDPE
Pygas
SM PS ABS PO/Polyol PC Phenol/ Acetone PP SBR PU PMMA
880-1,320 KTA Potential Products Excess volume available for asset reconfiguration
* 425 KTA of which 230 KTA contract expiring in 2016
425 KTA* 180 KTA 70 KTA 70 KTA
3Q/15 4Q/15 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Phenol II TOCGC Improvement PO/Polyol US Petrochemical Complex 2015
Short Term Mid Term Long Term
2022
Asset Reconfiguration
PTTGC Project Timeline
DOWNSTREAM OPPORTUNITIES
Upstream Product Available
Indonesia Petrochemical Complex Aromatics II Debott. HDI Monomer France mLLDPE HDI Derivative Thailand
OLEFINS
Reformate 970 KTA
Naphtha 7
CORE UPLIFTS
2015 COMPLETING PROJECTS
SYNERGY PROJECT PROGRESS Off Gas Upgrading at Olefins
Delay to 2Q/15
99%
DEBOTTLENECKING & EXPANSION CAPACITY/ CAPEX PROGRESS Phenol 2 Project Target COD: 4Q/15
Phenol +250 KTA Acetone +155 KTA
97% CAPEX 345 M$
TOCGC Plant Improvement Project Target COD: 3Q/15
EOE +90 KTA
85% CAPEX 94.2 M$
Aromatics 2 Debottlenecking Project Target COD: 4Q/15
PX +115 KTA BZ +35 KTA OX +20 KTA
76% CAPEX 128.8 M$
* *
19 45 68 83 86 86
156 129 86 74 14 13 35 38 149 149 149 149 21
0.3 75 108 108 108 231 211 378 414 357 356
2013A 2014A 2015 2016 2017 2018
Operational Excellence Marketing Excellence Synergy Excellence Additional Synergy Debottleneck Total
Core Uplift Programs 2015 Target
(MUSD)
1Q/15 Actual
(MUSD)
FY2015 Estimate
(MUSD)
Synergy Excellence 149 11 35 Marketing Excellence 86 26 112 Operational Excellence 68 18 76 Total 303 55 223 8
*Updated as of March 2015
World Scale Ethane Cracker
- Utilize ethane from shale gas as feedstock
- Capacity : 1 MTA Ethylene
- Derivatives
- HDPE : 700 KTA
- MEG : 500 KTA
- EO : 100 KTA
- Location : Dilles Bottom, Ohio
- Capex: Approx. US$ 5.7 Billion
9
Petrochemical Complex
1-STEP ADJACENCIES: US Petrochemical Complex
Timeline
- Investment cost justify investment return
- Enough ethane capacity with capped price
- Partner can distribute products in N. America
Key Criteria for FID
FEED Selection Dual-FEED Contractor Selection
FID 3Q/16 COD 4Q/20 BOD approved FEED Study Mar, 2015
CHECK POINTS
Construction
Site Location: Ohio’s Key Advantages
1-STEP ADJACENCIES: US Petrochemical Complex
Close to feedstock supply
- Site location is in the center of ethane
network with nearby fractionation units
- Allowing the project to utilize existing
pipelines and provide flexibility for ethane delivery
- Pipelines in this region are mostly newly
built with less than 2 years of use. Availability and Quality of Workforce
- 90,000 local skilled workers in Ohio
- JobsOhio with the construction trades and
educational system will deliver the required workforce. : organization promoting job creation and economic development of Ohio
- JobsOhio offers an aggressive incentive package
for the Project i.e. state job creation tax credits, workforce training grants, infrastructure improvement grants, and local tax credits Accessible by railway/ highway/ waterway Readiness of infrastructure and utility Close to demand: (% of total US & Canada)
- HDPE: 55% (4,500 KTA)
- MEG: 65% (1,400 KTA)
10
1-STEP ADJACENCIES: US Petrochemical Complex
Feedstock
- Discussed with 9 potential upstream and midstream
suppliers with volume of 2.3-3.4 MTA of ethane which exceeds required volume of 1.25 MTA
- Expected ethane supply contract tenor of 10-20
years.
- Aim to cap ethane price with ceiling
Partner
Partner Selection Criteria
- Trader / Marketing Expertize
- Product Offtaker
- Local connection & Practice
PTTGC is working with 6 selected potential partners
Funding
PTTGC is talking to potential lenders in Thailand and study funding scheme in the US in parallel
Technology
Cracker : Stone & Webster
- Stone & Webster has the highest number of
projects and capacity share for the new project in US. HDPE : INEOS Group Limited (INEOS)
- INEOS technology can produce products that
fit to US market and has market share in N.America. EOEG : Scientific Design (SD)
- PTTGC has long experience in SD technology
in Thailand. As a result of 73 customer visits in 2014, all customers are willing to buy from us.
- PE visits covered > 30% of US demand
(42 visits)
- EOEG visits covered > 80% of US demand
(31 visits) Product suppliers in NE America
Marketing
HDPE MEG PTTGC, Shell, Braskem Combined Capacity 2,450 KTA (60% of NE demand) PTTGC
11
1-STEP ADJACENCIES:
Petrochemical Complex in Indonesia
Refinery Upgrading Project Petrochemical Complex Project
Potential Partner
Feedstock from Balongan Refinery Updates PERTAMINA and partner is determining size and configuration of Refinery upgrade/expansion
- Availability of petrochemical feedstock from
refinery expansion
- Configuration and product yield of the expansion
- Domestic demand of refined product
HDPE LDPE EO/EG PP BD
MTBE
300 KTA 400 KTA 460 KTA 544 KTA 125 KTA 116 KTA
Preliminary Configuration
Pygas
373 KTA
Naphtha based cracker 1.5 MTA Existing Capacity Expanding Capacity
Feedstock Required
Naphtha : 2.25 MTA LPG : 0.6 MTA Refinery Capacity 125 KBD Balongan Refinery Expansion + Petrochemical Complex
- Consider collaboration to integrate Balongan Refinery with
petrochemical complex
- PERTAMINA and a partner is looking to upgrade/expand its
Balongan refinery 12 2015 2016 PID by end
- f 2015
2022 COD 2017 FID by 2Q/17
PO / POLYOL Project
- Location : Rayong, Thailand
- Capacities
- PO : 200 KTA
- Polyols & System house : 100-150 KTA
- CAPEX ~ 1 billion USD
- Target COD : 4Q/19
Update:
- Finalizing HOA agreement with partner
- Feasibility study
2015 2016
Set up JV company
2019
End 2016 Approve for Construction COD 4Q/19
PO/Polyol
TDI HDI
PO
(Propylene Oxide)
System House Formulation
Polyols
(Polyether Polyols)
1-STEP ADJACENCIES PU Chain: PO/Polyols
EO
(Ethylene Oxide)
TDI Major Applications HDI Major Applications 13
1-STEP ADJACENCIES PU Chain: Vencorex
VENCOREX Thailand HDI derivatives plant in Thailand
- Capacity: 12 KTA
- CAPEX : 40 M.Euro
- Target COD : 4Q/15
- Construction Status : 71.6%
Marketing
- Existing customers of Vencorex France in Asia approx. 8% of Asia Pacific Market
- Seek new customers through premarketing by increasing direct sales especially with key accounts
- HDI in Asia growth at 6% per annum
VENCOREX France
- TDI conversion to world-scale HDI monomer
- Capacity: 70 KTA
- CAPEX : 17 M.Euro
- Target COD : 2Q/16
2015 2016
COD 2Q/16 End 1Q/16 S/D to tie in
Update:
- Ordered long lead item
HDI Derivatives
HDI Monomer
TDI
Sustaining strong TDI customer base in Europe
- Maximize special grade TDI (raffinate)
- Application development i.e. TDI for Coating/ Adhesives/ Sealants/ Elastomers market
- Target on direct customers while keeping good connection with worldwide traders
Continue R&D for TDI Process Improvement VENCOREX USA : Exploring the possibility of HDI derivatives expansion in the US 14
Waste water Waste water Electrical, Steam Biomass Fertilizer Electrical, Steam
Bio Diesel Glycerine Plantation Cogeneration Palm Oil Crushing mill
Bioplastics Biochemicals Biofuels
Biogas Utility Utility and Waste System
Palm Oil Palm Kernel Methyl Ester Fatty Alcohol Plant Palm Oil Fatty Alcohols
Palm-Base B i o h u b C o n c e p t
GREEN: Bio-Hub Concept
15
Cane Juice / Molasses Waste water Electrical, Steam Baggases Fertilizer Electrical, Steam
Bioplastics/ Biochemicals Biopower Plantation Cogeneration Crushing Mill
Bioplastics Biochemicals Biofuels
Utility Electrical Steam Utility & Waste
Biofuels
Sugar-Base B i o h u b C o n c e p t
GREEN: Bio-Hub Concept
16
17
Agricultural Feedstock Fermentation (Lactic Acid) Monomer/Polymer (Lactide/PLA) Polymer (PLA) Application
- Thailand Plant : Integration with Cargill’s Lactic Acid Technology will enable
NatureWorks to invest in second fully integrated PLA Plant located in Thailand, supporting Thai National BIO-HUB Policy 2nd PLA Plant in Thailand HLA Backward Integration
GREEN: NatureWorks
Local Feedstock
PLA Value Chain
- US Plant : Lactic Acid contributes 50-70% of PLA cost, moving upstream to
integrate Lactic Acid supply will increase competitive position; driving PLA business in a sustainable model
18
- Overview
- Strategic Actions Progress
- Financial Performance
- Market Outlook
AGENDA
Changes in Accounting Standards - PACK 5
TFRS 10 & TFRS 11 : Material effect to PTTGC
TAS 27
% of share holding De facto Control
TFRS 10
Equity Method Consolidate
PTTGC is under control of PTT and need to be consolidated
TFRS 10 : Consolidated Financial Statements
TAS 31
Joint Venture Joint Venture
TFRS 11
Proportionate Consolidated
- r
Equity Method Equity Method
TFRS 11 : Joint Arrangements
To use equity method for all joint venture entities
Impact of TFRS 10
Effect to PTTGC
- All business combination
between the companies under PTT’s control need to realize at cost Previous Common Control Transaction
- 2006 : BPE, PTTPE
- 2011 : PTTCH + PTTAR
- 2013 : GPSC
Effect to PTTGC
- Joint Venture : to apply
equity method instead of previously used proportionate consolidation method Joint Venture Entities
- TEX (50%)
- Emery (50%)
- ESC (50%)
- NatureWorks (50%)
Effect to Statement of Income
- Reduction in depreciation
expense (of PPA value) Effect to Statement of Financial Position
- Reduction in total assets
(PPA & Goodwill)
- Reduction in total equity
(deficit in equity) Effect to Statement of Income
- Reduction in revenue and
expense
- Increment in share of profit
from investments
- No effect to the Company’s
net profit Effect to Statement of Financial Position
- Reduction in total assets &
liabilities
- Increment in investment in
joint ventures
Impact of TFRS 11 19
20
Surplus crude pressured Dubai price to decline from average at 74.4 USD/BBL in 4Q/14 to 51.9 USD/BBL in 1Q/15. As a result, PTTGC reported Stock Loss & NRV totaling 1,133 M.THB in 1Q/15.
FX Gain amounting to 526 M.THB, resulting from slight appreciation in THB against USD from 33.11 THB/USD at the end of 4Q/14 to 32.70 THB/USD at the end of 1Q/15
Average and Ending Dubai Crude Price: USD/BBL Average and Closing FX : THB/USD
105.5 96.6
104.4 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 104.8 109.2 94.6 52.9 53.4 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Average Price Closing Price
30.73 32.48
32.66 32.45 32.10 32.71 32.65 32.58 32.60 32.52 33.11 32.70 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Average FX Closing FX
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND OPERATIONS RECAP
1Q/15 QoQ YoY CDU Utilization Rate 102% 1% 1% Jet - Dubai
17.08
- 4%
0%
Diesel - Dubai
16.29 2%
- 8%
Fuel Oil - Dubai
- 1.86
67% 78%
GRM on CDU ($/bbl) 7.97 27% 44% BTX Utilization Rate 89% 26%
- 2%
PX- Condensate 333
- 17%
- 14%
BZ- Condensate 217
- 32%
- 43%
Market P2F ($/Ton) 219 34% 32% Olefins Utilization Rate 96%
- 5%
18% Polyethylene Utilization Rate 107%
- 3%
8% MEG Utilization Rate 108% 5% 44%
HDPE Price 1188
- 18%
- 24%
MEG Price 903
- 13%
- 24%
% Adj. EBITDA Margin 19%
- 5%
- 5%
1Q/15 INCOME STATEMENT – CONSOLIDATED
***
1Q/14R** 4Q/14R** 1Q/15 YoY QoQ MB % MB % MB % MB % MB % Sales Revenue 141,455 100 121,085 100 99,251 100 (42,204)
- 30%
(21,834)
- 18%
Feedstock Cost (117,581) (83) (95,112) (79) (75,721) (76) (41,860)
- 36%
(19,391)
- 20%
Product to Feed Margin 23,874 17 25,973 21 23,530 24 (344)
- 1%
(2,443)
- 9%
1 Variable Cost (7,062) (5) (7,358) (6) (6,809) (7) (253)
- 4%
(549)
- 7%
2 Fixed Cost (4,075) (3) (4,039) (3) (3,514) (4) (561)
- 14%
(525)
- 13%
3 Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV (567) (0) (13,676) (11) (1,133) (1) (566)
- 100%
12,543 92% 4 Gain/(Loss) Commodity Hedging 184 1,229 1 (188) (0) (372)
- 202%
(1,417) -115% 5 Other Income 990 1 1,421 1 926 1 (64)
- 6%
(495)
- 35%
6 SG&A (2,413) (2) (3,278) (3) (2,339) (2) (74)
- 3%
(939)
- 29%
EBITDA 10,931 8 272 10,473 11 (458)
- 4%
10,201 3750% 7 Depreciation & Amortization (3,857) (3) (4,040) (3) (3,979) (4) 122 3% (61)
- 2%
EBIT 7,074 5 (3,768) (3) 6,494 7 (580)
- 8%
10,262 272% Finance Cost (1,176) (1) (1,117) (1) (1,076) (1) (100)
- 9%
(41)
- 4%
8 FX Gain/(Loss) 617 (451) (0) 526 1 (91)
- 15%
977 217% 9 Shares of profit/(loss) from investments 36 (312) (0) 237 201 558% 549 176% 10 Income Tax Expense (402) (0) 923 1 (499) (1) 97 24% 1,422 154% Net Profit 6,149 4 (4,725) (4) 5,682 6 (467)
- 8%
10,407 220% Profit/(loss) attributable to: Owners of the Company 6,320 4 (4,780) (4) 5,631 6 (689)
- 11%
10,411 218% Non-controlling interests (171) (0) 55 51 222 130% (4)
- 7%
Adjusted EBITDA * 11,498 8 13,948 12 11,606 12 108 1% (2,342)
- 17%
Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (excludes Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV) ** Restated 1Q/2014 and 4Q/2014 Income Statements from the implementation of new accounting standards (Pack 5)
21
OVERVIEW OF BUSINESS UNITS’ PERFORMANCE
49% 21% 22% 3% 6% Sales Revenue
1Q/15 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Structure
99,251 MB 11,606 MB
% Adjusted EBITDA Margin
(Unit: MB) 1Q/14R 4Q/14R 1Q/15 YoY % + /(-) QoQ % + /(-) Sales Revenue 141,455 121,085 99,251
- 30%
- 18%
EBITDA 10,931 272 10,473
- 4%
3750% EBITDA Margin (%) 8% 0% 11% 3% 10% Net Profit 6,320 (4,780) 5,631
- 11%
218% EPS (Baht/Share) 1.40 (1.06) 1.25
- 11%
218% Adjusted EBITDA* 11,498 13,948 11,606 1%
- 17%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) 8% 12% 12% 4% 0%
Note: * Adjusted EBITDA refers to EBITDA excluding impact of inventory value (Inventory gain/(loss) and NRV)
22
25% 16% 48% 1% 7% 3% Adjusted EBITDA 1Q/14R 4Q/14R 1Q/15 Business Unit : Refinery
3 6 6
Aromatics
3 1 13
Olefins and Derivative
24 25 19
Green
8 2 6
HVS
3 6 12
Average
8 12 12
132.4 147.5 146.5 148.6 148.2 146.6 147.8 54.7 56.2 52.4 59.4 61.0 52.0 60.3
187.1 203.7 198.9 208.0 209.2 198.6 208.1
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Crude Condenstate Residue & Others
REFINERY PERFORMANCE
1Q/15 GRM reached Historical High
13.7 14.3 14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 15.3 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 17.5 15.9 17.0 14.3 14.5 17.7 17.1 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 17.9 16.1 17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 16.3 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 (8.1) (8.3) (8.5) (10.7) (8.4) (5.6) (1.9) 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
8% 8% 5% 8% 9% 9% 9% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 14% 12% 51% 50% 52% 51% 54% 45% 46% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 15% 17% 14% 15% 16% 16% 10% 16% 16%
166 185 185 188 179 186 184
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Naphtha + Ref. Jet Diesel Fuel Oil Others
ULG 95 - DB
JET - DB Diesel - DB FO - DB
Petroleum Products - Dubai Spread (USD/BBL)
+5% YoY +14% QoQ 0% YoY
- 4% QoQ
- 8% YoY
+2% QoQ +78% YoY +67% QoQ
Gross Refinery Margin (USD/BBL) Total Intake (KBD) Sales Volume (KBD)
CDU U-Rate
- 1% YoY
- 1% QoQ
+ 5% YoY
- 9% YoY
- 10% YoY
91% 102% 101% 103% 102% 101% 102%
+11% YoY +5% YoY +5% QoQ
- 3% YoY
- 9% YoY
23
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Market GRM 3.52 4.41 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 GRM on CDU 4.37 5.61 5.52 5.74 4.81 6.30 7.97 GRM on CRS 2.87 2.77 2.85 2.76 2.82 2.57 2.58
3.52 4.41 4.48 4.44 3.83 4.91 5.98 0.84 (4.36) (0.69) 0.73 (2.92) (14.68) (1.50) 0.78 0.94 0.33 0.66 0.70 2.08 (0.31)
5.14 0.98 4.12 5.83 1.61 (7.69) 4.17
(15.00) (10.00) (5.00)- 5.00
- 5.00
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Market GRM Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting GRM
380 375 380 370 430 320 217
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
- 1% YoY
557 400 386 334 479 401 333
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
- 28% YoY
AROMATICS PERFORMANCE
Lower Breakeven Point from Low Crude Price
Prices
PX FECP - Cond
BZ Spot - Cond
Aromatics Products Prices and Spread (USD/Ton)
- 14% YoY
- 17% QoQ
- 43% YoY
- 32% QoQ
Products to Feed Margin (USD/Ton BTX) BTX U-Rate and Sales Volume (KTons)
BTX U-Rate
- 12% YoY
+6% QoQ
90% 81% 91% 89% 82% 63% 89%
- 6% YoY
922 836 917 922 872 634 453 1,479 1,236 1,303 1,256 1,350 1,035 785 1,301 1,211 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Condensate Erawan PX FECP BZ Spot Korea
24
10% 11% 12% 12% 9% 11% 2% 28% 30% 25% 28% 33% 35% 28% 38% 36% 38% 37% 36% 33% 45% 23% 23% 24% 23% 22% 21% 25%
3,346 3,156 806 860 822 668 707
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 BZ Group PX Group Naphtha Group Other By- Products
296 174 166 86 290 164 219 17.47 (85.91) (7.90) 40.44 (68.54) (398.22) (27.63) (0.19) (0.08) (0.02) (0.37)
313 88 158 127 222 (235) 191
(400) (300) (200) (100)- 100
- 100
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Market P2F Stock Gain/(Loss) Net NRV Hedging Gain/(Loss) Accounting P2F
Naphtha - Cond
25 18 29 42 13 41
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 2013 2014 +131% YoY +229% QoQ +31568% YoY
OLEFINS AND DERIVATIVES PERFORMANCE
Softer HDPE price led to lower adjusted EBITDA margin
25
Prices
MEG ACP – 0.65Ethylene HDPE - Naphtha
Olefins Derivatives Prices and Spread (USD/Ton)
- 4% YoY
- 4% QoQ
+12% YoY
- 13% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA Margin U-Rate (%) GAS : NAPHTHA Intake %
HDPE Price
- 24% YoY
- 18% QoQ
Sales Volume (KTons)
KTons
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Olefins 90% 91% 77% 91% 94% 101% 96%
HDPE 106% 107% 93% 107% 114% 115% 109% LLDPE 103% 100% 99% 112% 84% 105% 110% LDPE 76% 105% 115% 93% 104% 106% 99%
Total PE 99% 105% 99% 106% 104% 111% 107% MEG 94% 95% 65% 99% 112% 104% 108% 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Olefins 756 708 134 168 182 224 196
HDPE 834 873 202 218 210 243 219 LLDPE 397 407 98 105 85 120 108 LDPE 218 323 72 92 75 83 80
Total PE 1,449 1,603 373 415 369 446 407 MEG 372 382 71 95 110 107 102
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 HDPE (FILM) SEA 1,488 1,544 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 LLDPE CFR SEA 1,487 1,543 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 LDPE CFR SE Asia 1,534 1,571 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 MEG ACP 1,202 1,113 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 Naphtha MOPJ 921 861 935 951 913 647 494
566 682 620 618 691 802 694
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 +21% YoY
323 206 245 152 182 246 236
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
- 36% YoY
27% 26% 24% 25% 28% 25% 19%
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
25
56% 56% 60% 54% 55% 58% 56% 34% 35% 27% 35% 40% 36% 37% 10% 8% 13% 11% 4% 6% 7% 3,709 3,727 799 932 965 1,032 991
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Ethane Other Gas Naphtha 1,488 1,544 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,487 1,543 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,534 1,571 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,202 1,113 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 921 861 935 951 913 647 494
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
HDPE (FILM) SEA LLDPE CFR SEA LDPE CFR SE Asia MEG ACP Naphtha MOPJ
241 236 240 256 240 1,380 1,488 1,544 1,188 1,373 27% 27% 26% 19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
- 200
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
2012 2013 2014 1Q-15 QTD (10-May-15) Ethane Flow (Ton/Hr) EBITDA Margin (%) HDPE Price ($/Ton) 1Q/15 EBITDA Margin 19%
- HDPE price @ 1,188 $/Ton decreased
23% from avg. 2014 price
- Variable cost (mainly consist of utility
and chemical cost) per ton decreased 10% from avg. 2014 2Q/15 Expects EBITDA Margin to increase
- HDPE price is expected to be in the
higher level than 2012
- Ethane flow is expected to remain the
same level as 2012
Olefins and Derivatives
EBITDA Margin increase
26
PHENOL AND BPA PERFORMANCE
Improved from Better Sales Volume and BPA Product Margin
Prices
BPA-Phenol Phenol-BZ
Phenol/ BPA Prices and Spread (USD/Ton) U-Rate and Sales Volume (KTons)
Sales Volume (KTons)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
+55% YoY +6% QoQ +90% YoY
- 15% QoQ
+112% YoY +26% QoQ
- 7% YoY
1,301 1,211 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 1,416 1,427 1,424 1,456 1,592 1,235 909 1,708 1,695 1,638 1,653 1,894 1,595 1,364
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
Benzene Phenol BPA
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Phenol (CMP) 1,416 1,427 1,424 1,456 1,592 1,235 909 BPA (CMP) 1,708 1,695 1,638 1,653 1,894 1,595 1,364 Benzene 1,301 1,211 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670
U-Rate 2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Phenol 126% 118% 78% 131% 132% 132% 131% BPA 100% 99% 70% 107% 104% 116% 114% 54% 58% 60% 58% 52% 60% 59% 46% 42% 40% 42% 48% 40% 41% 277 258 48 66 73 70 74
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 Phenol BPA
4% 11% 4% 7% 16% 13% 19%
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
115 216 126 164 291 282 240
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15 +88% YoY
292 268 214 197 302 360 454
2013 2014 1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 1Q/15
- 8% YoY
27
STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION
Maturity of Financial Debt* as at Mar. 31, 2015
Interest Rate Currencies 63 % Fixed 55 % THB 37 % Float 45 % USD & Others
Loan Type
- Cost of long term debts ~ 4.59% (Include W/H Tax)
- Average loan life after refinancing - 5.11Years
Treasury policy
Net IBD to Equity ratio of ≤ 0.7x Net IBD to EBITDA ratio of ≤ 2.4x
THB Bn
* After Refinance
Key Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position
As of Dec. 31, 2014 As of Mar. 31, 2015
THB 385 Bn THB 380 Bn
Cash +ST Investment CA Non CA PPE Liab. IBD Share Holder’s Equity
6.2 9.9 15.7 10.7 8.9 12.7 10.8 34.6 0.7 0.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 PTTGC PPCL Others
1.30 1.40 1.47 1.97 1.59 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.23
31 Mar. 14 30 Jun. 14 30 Sep. 14 31 Dec. 14 31 Mar. 15 Net IBD/EBITDA NET IBD/Equity
12.14% 13.09% 12.16% 6.86% 6.40% 8.49% 9.01% 8.36% 5.05% 4.91%
31 Mar. 14 30 Jun. 14 30 Sep. 14 31 Dec. 14 31 Mar. 15 ROE ROA
28
CAPEX TO SUPPORT GROWTH
193 226 251 252 228 242 251 175 32 38 24 325 280 262 47 36 19 36 58 66 6 1 26 39 7 738 614 616 389 263 248 251
545 387 365 138 36 6 1
2013A 2014A 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Green 1-step Core uplift Phenol Annual Maintenance Total Total Growth Project
Approved CAPEX Plan 2015 -2019*
Unit: USD mn
Uncommitted 5 Years Investment CAPEX
$1 Bn secured from USD Bond issued in Sep’12
Green 5% 64%
1-Step Adjacencies
31% Core Uplift
$ 4.5 Bn
$ 2.5 Bn Cash Flow From Operation $ 2 Bn Debt Financing
29
*FX = 30 THB/USD
30
- Overview
- Strategic Actions Progress
- Financial Performance
- Market Outlook
AGENDA
2015 Market Outlook Crude price in improve in short term with high volatility
– Crude demand/supply will be more balanced from growing demand during low oil price with slower U.S. crude output, however, record high of crude net long position – Expect Dubai crude to increase in 2H/15 to 64 $/bbl at the end of the year.
Aromatics margins slightly improve
– Paraxylene still in oversupply however, start up of new capacity maybe delayed. Chinese regulators are more stringent after Dragon Aromatics’ incident. – Benzene demand improved from low crude oil price, however, higher naphtha crackers
- perating rate may increase benzene supply from additional pygas volume.
Polyethylene strong prices from firm demand
– Polyethylene market is quite balanced with more demand from emerging market
MEG margin recovers from polyester demand growth
– MEG market is more balanced from growing demand from polyester. Low inventory level of MEG in China.
CONCLUSION & MARKET OUTLOOK
31
32 For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at IR@pttgcgroup.com
Thank You
1 Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP - Corporate Finance & IR Thitipong.j@pttgcgroup.com +662-265-8574 2 Puvadol Vasudhara IR Manager Puvadol.v@pttgcgroup.com +662-140-8712 3 Prang Chudasring IR Analyst Prang.c@pttgcgroup.com +662-265-8327 4 Supika Charudhanes IR Analyst Supika.c@pttgcgroup.com +662-265-8533 5 Chutima Jarikasem IR Coordinator Chitima.j@pttgcgroup.com +662-1408713