Operational Conditions of the National I nterconnected System Joo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Operational Conditions of the National I nterconnected System Joo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 06, 2024 220 likes •411 views

Operational Conditions of the National I nterconnected System Joo Jos Cascaes Dias Rio de Janeiro, February 6, 2015 Average Rainfall Anomaly in the River Basin of SI N Paranaba So Francisco Alto Paraguai Tocantins Paranapanema

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Operational Conditions of the National I nterconnected System João José Cascaes Dias

Rio de Janeiro, February 6, 2015

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Average Rainfall Anomaly in the River Basin of SI N

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Grande Tietê Paranapanema Iguaçu Uruguai Alto Paraguai Tocantins São Francisco Paranaíba

SOURCE: CPTEC/INPE

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Anomalies Monthly Rainfall

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Anomaly in Soil Moisture - Monthly

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Moisture in the soil anomaly, Dec-14 with a deficit compared to average about 140 mm in the main river basins of Southeast. This means that, in theory, to recover the average flow condition of the river basins, it would be necessary at least 140mm of rain above average. Note: Evaporation rate in dry conditions tends to be higher than the average.

SOURCE: CPC/NOA

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Daily Forecast – Feb 4, 2015

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The conversion of atmospheric humidity into rain has been occurred, but offshore (precipitation shifted to the ocean). SOURCES: CPTEC/INPE and ONS

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Pacific Conditions

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SOURCE: CPC/NOA

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Hydro Energy Conditions of the River Basins

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Baixo Paraná Tocantins São Francisco Paranaíba Grande Tietê Paranapanema Iguaçu Uruguai

SOURCE: ONS

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I nflow Energy

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6th worst worst

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Storage and Spot Price (PLD)

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Sudeste Sul Nordeste Norte

Southeast South Northeast North

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Consumption Progress

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Behaviour of Annual Progress of Consumption

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Progress of Demand (2014-2015)

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SOURCES: ONS/ABRAGE

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Progress of Demand (January 2014-2015)

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SOURCES: ONS/ABRAGE

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Hydrothermal Progress * – ONS/ PMO (2014)

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* HPP (Power) + TPP (Availability - discounting Maintenance and Forced Outage Rate)

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Storage (SI N)

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ENA min Ano*: ~ 80% MLT * Minimum Energy Inflow in 2015 to reach 10% of storage in Nov-15. Variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainflow may alter the estimated values for the evolution of storage due to transmission limitations, and possible loss of producibility and spillage, particularly in Northern and Southern

  • subsystem. The same note applies to the demand and availability of SIN power plants (PMO Feb-15).

ENA minima: ~ 85% MLT ONS prediction SIN Storage Average 10 Years Storage Range

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Minimum Energy I nflow* (SI N)

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* Minimum Energy Inflow in 2015 to reach 10% of storage in Nov-15. Variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainflow may alter the estimated values for the evolution of storage due to transmission limitations, and possible loss of producibility and spillage, particularly in Northern and Southern

  • subsystem. The same note applies to the demand and availability of SIN power plants (PMO Feb-15).
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Critical Energy I nflows with Similarity in History

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Critical Energy I nflows with Similarity in History

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