ONCLIMATECHANGEANDGLOBAL WARMING:POPULATIONLEFTOUT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ON

CLIMATE
CHANGE
AND
GLOBAL
 WARMING:
POPULATION
LEFT
OUT
 IN
THE
COLD?


Louise
Carver
 Popula;on
and
Sustainability
Network
 The
Manchester
Report



Outline
for
this
talk: 


1.
Current
trends
in
global
popula5on
 2.
Climate
change
and
popula5on:
 










Popula5on
and
GHG
emissions
 










Popula5on
and
vulnerability/
adapta5on
 3.
Recommenda5ons
for
ac5on?


Global
popula5on
growth
paEerns 


World
Popula;on
Growth
to
2050









Distribu;on
of
Growth
to
2150


United
Na5ons
World
Popula5on
Prospects
2008
Revision





































United
Na5ons
World
Popula5on
Prospects
1998
Revision


• Projec5ons
in
2050
are
built
on
assump5ons

• Over
95%
of
popula5on
growth
from
today
will
take
place


in
urban
centers
in
the
global
south.


Popula5on
Ac5on
Interna5onal 



Global
Distribu;on
of
 Consump;on
PaPerns: 


GHG
Emissions
Per
Person
2004



• Sds


Na;onal
GHG
Emissions
2005


Unconscionable to claim that the poor countries in the South, that are largely the engine of population growth are responsible for climate change today

The
KAYA
Iden;ty
shows
that
 popula;on
is
an
important
driver


• f
climate
change
from
energy


use: 


Popula5on
features
in
the
models
 by
IPCC: 









Special
Report
on
Emissions
Scenarios
(SRES) 
 


A1
 A2
 B1
 B2
 Popula5on
 growth
 Low
 High
 Low
 Medium
 GDP
growth
 
Very
High
 Medium
 High
 Medium
 Technological
 change
 Rapid
 Slow
 Medium
 Medium
 Energy
use
 Very
High
 High
 Low
 Medium
 Land
use
 Low/ Medium
 Medium /High
 High
 Medium
 Emissions
in
 2100
 MEDIUM
 HIGH
 LOW
 MEDIUM


Stones
leX
unturned
in
the
 models… 


• Other
demographic


variables
will
impact


• n
emissions
for


example:
 – Aging
 – Urbaniza;on
 – Household
size









Impacts
of
aging
and
urbanisa;on
on
carbon


emissions
in
China 
























































Popula5on
Ac5on
Interna5onal
2009


There
is
an
opportunity… 


If
there
is
a
fixed
long‐term
policy
goal
for
 climate
change,

how
much
less
costly
would
it 
 be,
how
much
less
would
you
have
to
spend


• n
changing
the
energy
system,
for
example,


to
reach
that
goal,
if
there
was
a
lower
 popula5on
path
rather
than
a
medium
one?

 



Brian
O’Neill,
Earth
Scien5st,
Na5onal
Center
for
Atmospheric
Research,
USA.


Popula;on
should
be
included
in
 discussions: 


• We
can
associate
a
lower
popula5on
with
a


lower
emission
pathway,
but
it
won’t
 guarantee
it
on
its
own...


• Addressing
rapid
popula5on
increase
has


many
other
important
benefits.


• It
needs
to
be
beEer
framed
in
climate
change


discussion,
since
currently
it
is
simply
omiEed.


Popula;on
and
Adapta;on
to
 Climate
Change 


Climate
Change
Impacts
on
People
and
 Popula;ons: 


Temperature
Rise
 Unpredictable
precipita;on
 Sea
level
rise
 Flood
 Increase
in
storm
severity
 Glacial
mel;ng
 Half
of
world’s
popula;on
to
 suffer
food
shortages
by
2050
 1‐2
billion
to
suffer
water
 shortages
by
2050
 Third
of
global
popula;on
 lives
within
60
miles
of
a
 Shoreline
 Increase
in
diseases:
 Diarrhea,
malaria
and
 malnutri;on


“The
degree
to
which
a
system
is
suscep5ble
to,


• r
unable
to
cope
with,
adverse
effects
of


climate
change,
including
climate
variability
and
 extremes.
 Vulnerability
is
a
func5on
of
the
character,
 magnitude,
and
rate
of
climate
varia5on
to
 which
a
system
is
exposed,
its
sensi5vity,
and
its
 adap5ve
capacity.”
(IPCC,
2001,
p.
995)


Vulnerability is defined as:

Poor
countries
will
be
hit
earliest
 and
hardest: 


• Most
vulnerable
to


impacts


• Have
less
capacity
to


adapt


• Rapid
popula;on


growth
and
high
 fer;lity
underscores
 both



Popula;on
growth
undermines

 development
efforts
and
can
sustain
 poverty:


• Maternal
health
(one
in
five
deaths
for
women


is
due
to
pregnancy
related
causes)


• Educa5on
(primary
school
enrolment
is
lower


amongst
women
with
large
families)


• Hinders
economic
growth

• Environmental
degrada5on



Guiding
principle: 






Individuals
cannot
exercise
adequate
 stewardship
over
natural
resources
unless
 their
basic
needs
for
health,
nutri;on
and
 economic
well‐being
are
addressed.
(PAI
2009)



Climate
Change
adds
an
extra
 dimension
to
pop‐
environment
model







Rapid
popula5on


growth
can
make
 adapta5on
to
the
 changes
and
impacts
 much
harder


Na;onal
Adapta;on
Programmes


• f
Ac;on
(NAPA)

• SubmiEed
by
Least
Developed
Countries
to
the
UNFCCC
to

• utline
urgent
vulnerabili5es:
important
resource
from


perspec5ve
of
developing
countries
themselves


• 41
countries
have
submiEed
a
NAPA
so
far

• Over
90%
men;on
rapid
popula;on
growth
as
something


that
either
exacerbates
vulnerability
or
impedes
ability
to
 adapt


• More
than
half
of
the
countries
will
at
least
double
in


popula5on
by
2050


Some
areas
of
vulnerability
shown
 in
NAPA
reports: 


Flooding
 Drought
 Soil
Degrada;on/
Over
farming
 Water
Shortages
 Biodiversity
Loss
 Deser;fica;on
 Deforesta;on
 Coastal
Erosion
and
Sea
Level
Rise


Popula;on
growth
underwrites
these
 vulnerabili;es
in
three
major
ways: 


1)
Popula5on
growth
and
climate
change
act
cumula5vely
to


deplete
the
source
of
key
natural
resources,
for
example
 through
soil
erosion
and
deforesta5on,
‐

(


availability)
 2)
Popula5on
growth
is
projected
to
cause
a
significant
 escala5on
in
demand
for
resources
that
climate
change
 diminish,
including
fresh
water
and
food,

(




demand)
 3)
Rapid
popula5on
growth
heightens
human
vulnerability
to
 natural
disasters
caused
by
climate
change,
including
by
 forcing
more
people
to
migrate
and
seEle
in
areas
at
risk
of
 floods,
storms
and
drought.


Popula;on
growth
and
specific
 vulnerabili;es: 


• On
water
resources:



Na$onal
studies
have
shown
that
soil
moisture
would


 decline
under
future
climate
change.
When
coupled
 with
high
consump$on,
increased
popula$on
growth, 
 high
varia$on
in
rainfall
and
high
rate
of
 evapora$on,
a
looming
water
crisis
appears
likely.

 Sudan
NAPA.
p.19
2007


Popula;on
growth
on
specific
 vulnerabili;es
con;nued… 


• On
shortage
of
land
per
capita:



Vulnerable
regions
receive
more
and
more
migra$ng


popula$ons
from
regions
with
high
density
of
 popula$on
and
where
natural
resources
have
 reached
a
cri$cal
level
of
degrada$on.”
 



Rwanda
NAPA,
P.
37.
2006



On
Health 






“The
high
popula5on
and
growth
rate
of
 Uganda
is
not
matched
with
growth
in
health
 services
and
wealth…
the
high
popula5on
puts 
 addi5onal
stress
on
the
natural
resources
and
 weak
health
infrastructure”

 Uganda
NAPA,
p.
11


Picture:
Marie
Stopes
Interna5onal


Recommenda;ons
for
Ac;on: 


• Renew
and
honor
commitments
made
to
reproduc;ve


health,
including
importantly
family
planning


• Invest
in
female
educa;on

• Streamline
climate
change
adapta;on
with
all


development
efforts‐
bePer
integra;on
across
sectors


• Improve
data
collec;on
and
research
materials


Birth
and
contracep;on
rates: 


• Global
fer5lity
is
2.7
children
per
woman
but
is
s5ll


very
high
in
some
countries
above
4.5
across
most
of
 SS
Africa
and
some
of
South
Asia.



• 200
million
women
worldwide
have
an
“unmet


need”
for
family
planning


• Unmet
need
for
contracep5on
is
defined
as:


“
A
woman
who
would
like
to
delay
or
prevent
her
 next
pregnancy
and
is
not
using
modern
 contracep;on”


Family
Planning
Funding
Con;nues
to
Decline: 














All
Party
Parliamentary
Group
on
Popula$on,
Development
and
Reproduc$ve
Health
Report
Update:
The
Return
of
the
Popula$on
Growth
 Factor;



Its
Impact
on
the
MDGs.


Global levels of investment at an all time low, declined by 30% in real terms since the mid 1990s.

Simultaneously
demand
is
increasing: 


Projected
Increase
in
Contracep;ve
Users
2000‐
2015
in

 Developing
Countries
















































United
Na$ons
Popula$on
Division,
World
Popula$on
Prospects
1998
Revision


Wider
benefits
of
family
planning
as
part
of
 sexual
and
reproduc;ve
health
services:


• Maternal
and
infant
health


– 76
million
unintended
pregnancies
in
the
developing
world
 in
2003
resulted
in
184,000
pregnancy
related
deaths
and
 1.8
million
infant
deaths.


• Expanded
opportuni5es
for
women’s
educa5on,


employment
and
social
par5cipa5on


• Lowering
popula5on
pressure


WIN/WIN
opportunity
for
family
planning 


• Rela5vely
easy
to
implement

• Rela5vely
inexpensive
(unique
interven5on
in


the
breadth
of
benefits
it
brings)


• Demand
for
it
already
exists
and
is
growing

• Can
bolster
capacity
to
cope
with


environmental
changes
at
household
and
 na5onal
level
through
easing
popula5on
 pressure


Summary: 


• Popula5on
growth
will
act
as
an
important
source

• f
GHG
emissions
in
the
future,
most
effec5ve


response
will
address
high
energy
consump5on
 today,
but
popula5on
must
not
be
ignored


• IPCC
scenarios
may
underes5mate
role
of


popula5on
growth


• Popula5on
growth
can
act
to
sustain
poverty
and


environmental
degrada5on


• Popula5on
growth
will
make
adapta5on
much


harder


• There
are
WIN/WIN
policies
currently
being

• verlooked


Conclusion 


• Reaching
popula5on
stabiliza5on
on
its
own


would
not
be
the
silver
bullet
for
development
 challenges,
environmental
sustainability
or
 climate
change…
 BUT 


• It
would
make
ac5on
much
more
feasible.


Thank
you
for
listening 


www.popula5onandsustainability.org