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Predi edicti ctions f ons for or Hyd Hydrolog rology, y, Eco Ecology, logy, an and W d Water ater Res Resour ources M ces Mana anagem gement ent Sess Session C on C: How How can w an we qu e quant antify/ ify/pred predict

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Co Comp mparat ativ ive si simu mulati tion

  • n of

f th the ef effe fects s

  • f
  • f l

land d us use ch chan ange, , ri river r tr traini ning ng and nd al alte tered d cl climat ate e on f flo loods s of

  • f the

he R Rhine ne

Ax Axel Bronste el Bronstert rt

Chair air fo for Hyd r Hydrol rology

  • gy and

and Cli Climat matology

  • logy

In Insti titut ute for for Ea Earth th and and Env nviro ronment mental l Sci ciences nces Unive iversi rsity of ty of Po Potsd tsdam, G am, Germ ermany any

.

Predi edicti ctions f

  • ns for
  • r Hyd

Hydrolog rology, y, Eco Ecology, logy, an and W d Water ater Res Resour

  • urces M

ces Mana anagem gement ent

Sess Session C

  • n C: How

How can w an we qu e quant antify/ ify/pred predict ict cha changes nges in in wat water er-rela elated ted haza hazards rds

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SLIDE 2

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Motivation

Incre crease ase in n in numb umber er of fl

  • f flood
  • od ev

events ents (le (left) ft) and and rel relate ated dam d damage ages ( s (right right)

Munich Re, 2010 Munich Re, 2010

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Motivation

What is What is the impa the impact of en ct of environmen vironmental chan tal changes ges

  • n flood
  • n flooding cond

ing conditions ? itions ?

?

Land use Land use change change

?

Climate Climate change change

?

River tr River training m aining measures easures

?

Anything Anything else else

?

Nothing Nothing at all at all

?

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SLIDE 4

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Motivation Th The Rhi e Rhine ne:

  • 3rd biggest European river
  • Most important European river

Rh Rhine action ine action p pla lan for n for fl flood defenc

  • od defence

e (I (ICPR,1998): CPR,1998):

  • Reduce damage risks by 25%
  • Reduce flood stages downstream

impounded reaches up to 70cm

  • Increase flood risk awareness
  • Improve flood forecasting

Qu Quantificati antification

  • n n

needed !! eeded !!

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SLIDE 5
  • doubling of urban areas (housing, industry, traffic

doubling of urban areas (housing, industry, traffic etc.) during the last 60 years etc.) during the last 60 years

  • Reduction of farm land

Reduction of farm land

  • Examples:

Examples: Körsch-Catchment Catchment 1850 50  199 990 Mann annheim / Ludw udwigshafen 1850 850  1980 980

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Major environmental changes in the Rhine basin during the last century

1) Urbanisati Urbanisation

  • n
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SLIDE 6

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Major environmental changes in the Rhine basin during the last century

2) 2) dece decent ntralis ralised ed stor storm m water water m manage anageme ment nt

  • retention on roofs etc.

retention on roofs etc.

  • Small scale retention

Small scale retention in the landscape in the landscape

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SLIDE 7

3) 3) Changed m Changed man anag agement prac ement practi tice ce of farm l

  • f farm lan

and

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Major environmental changes in the Rhine basin during the last century

  • conventional tillage vs.

conventional tillage vs. ecological oriented ecological oriented tillage tillage

  • rationalisation of farm

rationalisation of farm land land

slide-8
SLIDE 8

4) 4) river tra river train inin ing and rive g and river r ch channelling annelling

  • faster flood wave propagation

faster flood wave propagation

  • reduced retention in flood plains

reduced retention in flood plains

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Major environmental changes in the Rhine basin during the last century

  • ca. 1800

today 1820 1870 1990

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SLIDE 9

5) 5) Climate c Climate cha hang nge

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Major environmental changes in the Rhine basin during the last century

Persistence of weather type „Western-Zonal“, 1900 - 1990. (Bárdossy, 1995) Annual precipitation over the Rhine Area upstream Köln. (Engel, 1995)

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SLIDE 10

5) 5) Climate c Climate cha hang nge

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Major environmental changes in the Rhine basin during the last century

Timing of spring flood peak flood at gauge Maxau 1920 - 2000 (Bürger, 2002) Months / 50 years with frozen river surface at Köln. (Krahe, 1997)

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SLIDE 11

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

The modelling concept

1) 1) Sto Storm rm ru runoff g noff gene eneration ration in influenc fluenced ed by lan by land u d use se  process process-or

  • riente

ented d modelling ing in some sub-catch atchme ments ts 2) 2) Regional egionalizat izatio ion of

  • f runoff

runoff gene genera ration ion  macro scale hydrol. . modelling ling in all sub-catchmen atchments ts 3) 3) Flood ro lood routin uting g and r nd retentio etention in n in f flood

  • od plains

plains  hy hydr drod

  • dynam

ynamic ic ro rout uting ing in in th the e ma main in ri rive ver r sy syst stem em 4) 4) Modellin

  • delling of

g of t the wh e whole hyd

  • le hydrolo

rologi gical al-hydrauli ydraulic sy c syst stem m  meteorologica

  • logical

l perturb rbation tions s / climate e scenari rios

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SLIDE 12

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

The modelling approach: nested and scale-specific models

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SLIDE 13

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

I process-oriented modelling The Lein The Lein Sub Sub-Ca Catchm tchmen ent:

Area: Area: 115 km² Location: Location: Kraichgau (SW- Germany); land use: land use: intensive agriculture soils: soils: deep loess soils

Lenne

( = 455 km²) AE

Lein ( = 115 km²) A

E Körsch

( = 127 km²) AE

Mainz Basel Karlsruhe Strasbourg Köln Rotterdam Arnhem Wiesbaden

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SLIDE 14

Process-oriented hydrological Model: extended WASIM-ETH Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

WASIM-ETH (Schulla, 1979)

  • grid based (fully distributed)
  • process oriented:
  • interception,
  • evapotranspiration,
  • quick runoff (‘Hortonian overland flow’;

saturation overland flow)

  • inter flow
  • ground water response

extended version (Niehoff, 2002):

  • agricultural areas (macropore flow; sealing)
  • urbanized areas (sealed vs. non-sealed;

decentralized storm water infiltration)

  • water retention in the landscape

(Niehoff, 2002)

slide-15
SLIDE 15
slide-16
SLIDE 16
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SLIDE 17

Pa Paramet rameter ers for s for t the ex he exte tended nded WA WASIM SIM-ETH ETH-mo mode del l

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SLIDE 18

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Results I: The Lein sub-catchment

Si Simul ulate ted sto storm m run unoff a ff afte ter ( (a) a ) a con

  • nvec

ective ive rai ain e event ent (b) b) an an advec vectiv tive rai e rain e n even vent; pr t; prese esent nt land land use use an and urb d urbani anisat sation s ion scen cenari arios

  • s

Niehoff et al. 2002

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SLIDE 19

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods Results I: The Lein sub-catchment

Lein Lein-sub sub-catchment: runoff generation processes for catchment: runoff generation processes for different rainfall event types different rainfall event types Convective rainfall events Advective rainfall events

Saturation excess Saturation excess infiltration excess infiltration excess Slow groundwater flow

Slow ground- water flow

Subsurface storm flow Subsurface storm flow Sewage channel excess

Sewage channel excess

xxx

Niehoff et al. 2002

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SLIDE 20

Increase in runoff volume and peak due to a 50 % growth of settlement and industrial areas in the Lein catchment. The events are sorted by the urbanisation impact on runoff volume

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Results I: The Lein sub-catchment

Increase in runoff compared to present conditions Simulated baseflow contribution to volume [%] Duration [h] Return period

  • approx. [a]

Year, month Maximum [%] Volume [%] 1990, February 3,4 3,7 19 150 2 1993, December 5,9 2,7 17 250 8 1997, February 3,9 2,7 19 150 7 1982, December 1,7 1,5 27 225 3 1983, May 0,6 0,9 39 300 4 1988, March 0,0 0,0 52 650 3 Mean 2,6 1,8 29 290 4,5

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SLIDE 21

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods Results II: The Lenne sub-catchment

The Lenn The Lenne sub e sub-catc catchm hmen ent

Area: Area: 455 km² Location: Location: Sauerland (W-Germany); Land Use Land Use: mainly forest and pasture; few settlement soils: soils: shallow, permeable

hydro drolog logical ical mod model: el: extended WASIM-ETH

Lenne ( = 455 km²) A

E Lein

( = 115 km²) A

E

Körsch

( = 127 km²) AE

Mainz Basel Karlsruhe Strasbourg Köln Rotterdam Arnhem Wiesbaden

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SLIDE 22

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods Results II: The Lenne sub-catchment Simulate storm runoff after (a) a convective rain event (b) an advective rain event; present land use and urbanisation scenarios

Niehoff et al. 2002

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SLIDE 23

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods III Regionalization of runoff generation

Rhine basin Maxau Rhine basin Maxau - Lobith Lobith: Area: Area: 110 600 km² Catchment sub Catchment sub-division: division: 95 sub-catchments 12 major sub-catchments Hydro Hydro-meteorological data: meteorological data: 1514 precipitation stations 313 climate stations

Land-cover map of the Upper Neckar Catchment in 1984, based on a LANDSAT TM image

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SLIDE 24

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

III Regionalization of runoff generation Hydrological Model: Hydrological Model: extended HBV extended HBV-IWS IWS (extended for urban areas, specific parameterization

  • f storage processes for

different land-use)

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SLIDE 25

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Regionalization of runoff generation

Model parameters of HBV-IWS, their potential relations to land-use characteristics and basic data sources for regionalisation (after Hundecha & Bárdossy, 2004)

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SLIDE 26

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Results III: Regionalization of runoff generation

Simulations for 3 land-use scenarios at sub-catchment Neckar, gauge Rockenau (12676 km²); Intense summer rainfall of shorter duration (left); Winter precipitation of lower intensity and longer duration (right). Present land use (green) and 2 urbanization scenarios (red; dashed)

Bronstert et al., 2003

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SLIDE 27

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods Results V: Effects of land-use changes on the macro-scale River ver ne network twork fr from

  • m Maxau

Maxau to to Lo Lobith: bith:

to total tal l leng ength th of s f sim imula ulated ted riv river er st stret retches hes:

~ 1100 km

routi uting ng model model:

SOBEK (1D-fully hydro-dynamic) SYNHP (hydrological routing)

42 si simul mulated ated sce scenar narios: ios:

 land-use change  extreme precipitation scenarios  retention in polders and flood plains

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SLIDE 28

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods Land-use change scenarios

Bronstert et al., 2003

  • LN1: Current land use conditions and a 10% increase of

urban area

  • LN2: Current land use and increase of urban area (D1)

plus controlled infiltration of urban storm runoff

  • LN100: Current land use and a 50% increase of urban area

("extreme urbanisation scenario")

  • LNW: All area covered with forest (hypothetical scenario)

Note: The scenarios LN1, LN2, and LN100 also account for the river training measures along the Rhine

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Hydro-meteorological scenarios

Bronstert et al., 2003

  • M95: Meteorological forcing (in its observed spatial and

temporal distribution) of January/February 1995

  • M95+: Meteorological forcing of January/February 1995

plus a linear increase of precipitation of 20%

  • M95++: Meteorological forcing of January/February 1995

plus 20% increase of precipitation plus an additional pre-event snow water equivalent of 20 mm

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods Results V: Effects of land-use changes on the macro-scale

Rhine catchment: gauge Andernach (~ 100 000 km²):

simulation of the 1993 flood with present and scenario land-use conditions

Bronstert et al., 2003

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Results V: macro scale simulation of environmental change scenarios

Simul mulate ated cha d change nges i s in wat n water er lev level [c el [cm] m] at at five five Rhi Rhine ne gauge gauges

LN1 LN2 LN100 LN1 LN2 LN100 LN1 LN2 LN100 LN1 LN2 LN100 LN1 LN2 LN100

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods

Conclusions

 The nest

he nested a ed and nd scal scale-sp specifi cific model c modelling ling a approa proach ch applied pplied here here i is an an adequat adequate me e meth thodolo dology gy

 Lan

Land-use use chang changes es may si may signi gnificant ficantly ly influe influence nce flood floods s in small n small cat catch chment ent (in cas (in case of e of c convec nvective ra tive rainfa infall ll)

 In large

n large cat catch chments ents the im the impact pact i is (ve (very) sma ry) small, ll, e.g. abo .g. about 5 ut 5-15 c 15 cm (r m (ris ising l ng limb), 0 imb), 0-5 cm (pe cm (peak) ak)

 controll

  • ntrolled r

ed ret etentio ntion in po n in polder lders s reduc educes peak es peaks ne s near ar the the r rete etention ntion but but very very lit little fa tle far d r downstr

  • wnstream

eam

 Effects

ffects of c

  • f cha

hanging ging meteor meteorolog

  • logic

ical / l / climati climatic c conditio

  • nditions r

ns req equire ire further further res resea earch ch

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Comparative Simulation of the effects of environmental change on Rhine floods More Information ?

Bronstert et al. (2003): Quantifizierung des Einflusses der Landoberfläche und der Ausbaumaßnahmen am Gewässer auf die Hochwasserbedingungen im Rheingebiet. Reports of the Commission for Hydrology of the River Rhine (CHR), Series II, No. 18, 85pp.

Bronstert et al. (2007): Multi-scale modelling of land-use change and river training effects on floods in the Rhine basin. River Research and Applications, 23(10), 1102-1125.

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Comparative simulation of the effects of land use change, river training, and altered climate on floods of the Rhine

András Bárdossy1, Hendrik Buiteveld2, Markus Disse3, Heinz Engel4, Uta Fritsch5, Yeshewatesfa Hundecha6, Rita Lammersen2, Daniel Niehoff5,7, Nicole Ritter8

1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Stuttgart, D - 70550 Stuttgart, Germany 2Institute for Inland Water Management, RIZA, Postbus 9072, NL - 6800 ED Arnhem, The Netherlands 3Institute for Water Science, Bundeswehr Univ. Munich, Heisenberg-Weg 39, D - 85577 Neubiberg, Germany 4German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) P.O. Box 200253, D - 56002 Koblenz, Germany 5Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D - 14412 Potsdam, Germany 6GFZ Potsdam, Section hydrology, Germany 7 now at: SAP AG, Dietmar-Hopp-Allee 16, D-69190 Walldorf, Germany 8Water and Navigation Office, Heidelberg, P.O. Box 10 59 46, D - 69049 Heidelberg, Germany

. IWS RIZA

Thank you !! Thank you !!