NYSE: GBX
September 2016 IR Presentation
Investor Contact: Investor.Relations@gbrx.com Website: www.gbrx.com
NYSE: GBX September 2016 IR Presentation Investor Contact: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
NYSE: GBX September 2016 IR Presentation Investor Contact: Investor.Relations@gbrx.com Website: www.gbrx.com Safe Harbor Statement UNDER THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995: This presentation may contain forward-looking
Investor Contact: Investor.Relations@gbrx.com Website: www.gbrx.com
UNDER THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995: This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding expected new railcar production volumes and schedules, expected customer demand for the Company’s products and services, plans to adjust manufacturing capacity, restructuring plans, new railcar delivery volumes and schedules, changes in demand for the Company’s railcar services and parts business, and the Company’s future financial
“intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “hopes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “strategy,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “likely,” “will,” “may,” “can,” “designed to,” “future,” “foreseeable future” and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from in the results contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, reported backlog and awards are not indicative of our financial results; inability to convert backlog of railcar orders and obtain and execute lease syndication commitments; uncertainty or changes in the credit markets and financial services industry; high levels of indebtedness and compliance with the terms of our indebtedness; write- downs of goodwill, intangibles and other assets in future periods; sufficient availability of borrowing capacity; fluctuations in demand for newly manufactured railcars or failure to obtain orders as anticipated in developing forecasts; loss of one or more significant customers; customer payment defaults or related issues; sovereign risk to contracts, exchange rates or property rights; actual future costs and the availability of materials and a trained workforce; failure to design or manufacture new products or technologies or to achieve certification or market acceptance of new products or technologies; steel or specialty component price fluctuations and availability and scrap surcharges; changes in product mix and the mix between segments; labor disputes, energy shortages or operating difficulties that might disrupt manufacturing operations or the flow of cargo; production difficulties and product delivery delays as a result of, among other matters, costs or inefficiencies associated with expansion, start-up or changing of production lines or changes in production rates, changing technologies, transfer of production between facilities or non-performance of alliance partners, subcontractors or suppliers; ability to obtain suitable contracts for the sale of leased equipment and risks related to car hire and residual values; integration of current or future acquisitions and establishment of joint ventures; succession planning; discovery of defects in railcars or services resulting in increased warranty costs or litigation; physical damage or product or service liability claims that exceed our insurance coverage; train derailments or other accidents or claims that could subject us to legal claims; actions or inactions by various regulatory agencies including potential environmental remediation obligations or changing tank car or other rail car or railroad regulation; and issues arising from investigations of whistleblower complaints; all as may be discussed in more detail under the headings "Risk Factors" and “Forward Looking Statements” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2015, and our other reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect management's opinions only as of the date hereof. Except as otherwise required by law, we do not assume any
Fleet Information
Three business units working together
Aftermarkets(1) Leasing & Services(1) Manufacturing(1) Wheels & Parts – nine wheel service locations and four railcar part reconditioning locations GBW Railcar Services - 50/50 JV provides repair services across 30 locations Leading manufacturer of railcars in North America and Europe Leading domestic manufacturer
New railcar backlog valued at nearly $3.6 billion Marine backlog of ~$120 million reflecting orders for two articulated ocean-going barges during Q3 ’16 and three ocean- going deck barges in June Minority investments in railcar manufacturer and component supplier in Brazil
322 2,605
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1994 2015 $ millions
Historical Revenue
IPO
(1)Data as of 5/31/2016
Leasing and Services Wheels, Repair and Parts
Manufacturing
Rail cycle driven by current business and industry trends Broadening product demand across cycles Changing tank car regulatory environment Market leader Provides customized solutions Transformational initiatives create growth platform
model
diversification
American aftermarket repair network
across diversified product mix
Diverse revenue and earnings stream Strong railcar backlog and track record over multiple cycles Positive financial trends Strategic initiatives to drive shareholder value and increased return on shareholder equity Seasoned management team
30 35 40 45
Car Loadings (in Millions)
N.A. Freight Traffic
Source: FTR Associates – Rail Equipment Outlook (June 2016)
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Units
North American Rail Car Deliveries
Shale oil and gas revolution drove demand in early stages of cycle; Lower natural gas & liquid natural gas prices driving expansion in chemical and plastics industries, which will create a second wave
Changing tank car regulatory environment Other areas of growth driven by grain and automotive traffic Aging fleet will drive replacement demand Strong railroad balance sheets and capital expenditure budgets
Long-term average: ~50,000 units
Source: FTR Associates – Rail Equipment Outlook (June 2016)
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Covered hopper Boxcar Tanks Intermodal Flat cars (auto) Coal Other hoppers / gondolas
Long-term average: ~50,000 units
Source: FTR Associates – Rail Equipment Outlook (June 2016)
1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 Millions
U.S. Rail Ton-miles
Source: FTR Associates – Rail Equipment Outlook (June 2016)
Wheel demand driven by rail ton-miles Ton-miles and equipment upgrades drive repair spending Approaching substantial tank car maintenance cycle Changing tank car regulatory environment
Users seek flexibility Financial institutions seek yield Trend of increasing private (“leasing/shipping companies”) railcar
Creates opportunity for partnering, service contracts and enhanced margins
Source: AAR – Railroad Equipment Outlook (August 2014)
52% 4% 44%
2005
Railroads TTX Private
39% 4% 57%
2014
Railroads TTX Private
Historical N.A. Railcar Fleet Ownership
10
Our diversified, flexible business model leaves Greenbrier well–positioned in an uncertain economic climate.
$749 $2,136 $102 $371 $92 $98
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
2006 2015
$ in millions (% of Total Revenue)
Leasing & Services W&P Manufacturing
$943 $2,605
(10%) (11%) (79%) (4%) (82%) (14%) GBX, 13% ARI, 21% RAIL, 14% TRN, 36% Others, 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
100% = 88,116 units
September 30, 2006*
GBX, 32% ARI, 6% RAIL, 7% TRN, 45% Others, 10%
100% = 89,155 units
June 30, 2016 Revenue
FY 2016
Guidance of approximately $2.8 billion
North American Industry Backlog
Source: RSI ARCI, public filings (June 2016)
* September 30, 2006 represents the prior industry backlog peak
Backlog Units
14,700 12,100 16,200 13,400 5,300 15,400 10,700 14,400 31,500 41,300 36,000 34,100 31,200
FY16 orders through May 31, 2016, total 5,200 units valued at ~$505 million.
$1,000 $830 $1,440 $1,160 $420 $1,230 $1,200 $1,520 $3,330 $4,710 $4,140 $3,960 $3,620
$68 $69 $89 $87 $79 $80 $112 $106 $106 $114 $115 $116 $116
$- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Average Sales Price/Unit ($ in thousands) Backlog Value ($ in millions)
Provides Earnings Visibility
Backlog value more than 3.5x higher than prior industry peak
$5.93 $(1.00) $- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Adjusted EPS(1)
21.1 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Deliveries (Units)
(1) Adjusted EPS & Adjusted EBITDA exclude Goodwill impairment, Restructuring charges and other Special Items. (2) Net debt is defined as Gross debt plus debt discount less Cash
FY 2016 Deliveries ~20,000-21,000 units FY 2016 Guidance $5.70-5.90 Positive trend expected to continue in FY 2016
5.5x 4.6x 2.7x 2.0x 1.1x 0.5x 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Debt(2) to Adj. EBITDA(1)
$2,605 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue
FY 2016 Revenue of ~$2.8 billion
Gross Margin Enhancement Aggregate gross margin of at least 20% by the second half of FY 2016 Capital Efficiency Return on Invested Capital (“ROIC”) of at least 25% for the second half of FY 2016
20.9% 22.8% 23.0% 17.9% 20.7% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
Aggregate Gross Margin
20.0%* 22.5%* 21.3% 23.7% 34.0% 31.0% 28.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
Return on Invested Capital
(*) Excludes the syndication of an acquired railcar portfolio, which had a 2.1% and 1.8% dilutive impact in Q2 and Q3, respectively.
$105 $192 $299 $304 $321 $268 $354 $99 $50 $54 $97 $185 $173 $214 $204 $242 $353 $401 $506 $441 $569
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5/31/16
Borrowing Availability Cash
5.5x 4.6x 2.7x 2.0x 1.1x 0.5x 0.2x 0.0x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 5/31/2016
Net Funded Debt(2) / Adjusted EBITDA(1) Liquidity Summary ($ in millions)
(1) Adjusted EBITDA exclude gain on contribution to GBW, restructuring charges, goodwill impairment and other special items (2) Net debt is defined as funded debt less cash
Strong balance sheet and positive free cash flow trend
Product and customer diversity provides visibility Unique model that enhances financial performance across the cycle, with powerful cross selling opportunities Initiatives to improve gross margins and capital efficiency
45,100 41,300 36,000 34,100 31,200 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Backlog
5,700 6,200 6,900 4,500 4,300 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Total Deliveries
1,000 2,200 1,700 700 800 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Syndicated Deliveries
Backlog 31,200 units valued at $3.6 billion
cartypes including boxcars, medium-cubed covered hoppers, non-energy tank cars, intermodal, gondola cars and automotive carrying railcars
for use in energy related transportation
Marine backlog to over $120 Million
barges during the quarter and three
Deliveries of 4,300 units including syndication activity of 800 units
$714.6 $765.5 $802.4 $669.1 $612.9 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Revenue ($ millions)
$116.3 $147.6 $161.8 $108.2 $99.5 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions)
$1.33 $2.02 $2.15 $1.41 $1.12 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Diluted EPS
Revenue to $612.9 million Gross margin to 22.5%
railcar portfolio, resulted in aggregate gross margin of 20.7%
Adjusted EBITDA to $99.5 million
Diluted EPS to $1.12 Results reflect:
$37.4 $162.7 $(63.5) $212.8 $45.4 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Operating Cash Flow ($ millions)
$44.6 $32.0 $(24.5) $(25.6) $16.8 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Net Capital Expenditure & Invest. In
$316.0 $204.4 $290.9 $114.0 $92.4 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Net Funded Debt ($ millions)
Positive Operating Cash Flow Quarterly dividend increased 5% to $0.21 per share Over $175 million of capital returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases since October 2013 Net Funded Debt reduced by over $21 million and is below $100 million on total assets of $1.8 billion ~$570 million of available liquidity
(1)Investment in Unconsolidated Affiliates included to reflect net
investments in unconsolidated joint ventures
Customer orders railcar to buy and use We build railcar and deliver it to customer Revenue recognized in Manufacturing segment
Customer orders railcar to lease We build railcar and lease it Railcars held temporarily on balance sheet generating interim lease income for GBX
Balance Sheet
Services segment
Railcars aggregated and sold (“syndicated”) to multiple third party investors (non-recourse to GBX)
lease
segment
Long term Management fees earned from investors on railcars after syndication
Fleet Information
Units
May 31, 2015
2015
2015
2016 May 31, 2016 Long term owned units (“Equipment on operating lease”) 6,200 6,300 6,300 5,900 5,900 Short term owned units (“Leased railcars for syndication”) 2,500 2,800 5,300 2,900 2,400 Total owned fleet 8,700 9,100 11,600 8,800 8,300 Managed fleet (units) 245,000 260,000 252,000 257,000 261,000
Owned & Managed Fleet
Owned Equipment on operating lease ‘right-sized’
with over $60 million of Deferred Taxes related to the Lease fleet
Managed fleet services include railcar remarketing, maintenance management, car hire accounting and various other services
as Syndication volume increased
Lease Syndication Model
Almost $700 million of Syndication volume in FY 2015 (reported in Manufacturing segment) One of two channels to market, expanding customer universe beyond traditional base Dwell time of rent producing railcars on balance sheet (“Leased railcars for syndication”) averages 3 months, as railcar leases are aggregated and sold in bundles to investors In addition to premium pricing above direct sales, creates stream of multi-year management fee income Able to source externally produced railcars to diversify offerings
Quarterly Trends Revenue and Gross Margin % FY 16 Outlook
partially offset by lower deliveries
mix and efficiencies
approximately $55 million, primarily related to maintenance and efficiency enhancements
$120 million
($ in millions)
3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Revenues $ 593.4 $ 657.5 $ 698.7 $ 454.5 $ 458.5 Gross Margin $127.7 $151.0 $165.6 $92.7 $105.7 Gross Margin % 21.5% 23.0% 23.7% 20.4% 23.1% Operating Margin % 19.5% 21.0% 22.0% 17.3% 20.2% Capital Expenditures $19.7 $23.7 $13.4 $9.3 $12.9 New Railcar Backlog $4,860 $4,710 $4,140 $3,960 $3,620 New Railcar Backlog (units) 45,100 41,300 36,000 34,100 31,200 Deliveries (units) 5,700 6,200 6,900 4,500 4,300
3Q Business Conditions
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% $- $0.4 $0.8 $1.2 $1.6 $2.0 $2.4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 5/31/16
$ in Millions Revenue Gross Margin
Quarterly Trends Revenue and Gross Margin %(1) FY 16 Outlook
wheel and component volumes
pricing and more favorable product mix
Corporation of Americas to establish a leading axle machining facility on the West Coast
approximately $9.0 million related to maintenance, enhancements of our existing facilities, and formation of GBSummit
3Q Business Conditions
($ in millions)
3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Revenues
$97.4 $84.6 $78.7 $90.5 $78.4
Gross Margin
$7.8 $9.2 $5.7 $9.1 $8.6
Gross Margin %
8.0% 10.8% 7.3% 10.0% 11.0%
Operating Margin %
5.2% 7.8% 4.3% 7.2% 7.4%
Capital Expenditures
$1.6 $4.3 $1.0 $1.4 $3.4
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 5/31/16
$ in Thousands Revenue Gross Margin
(1) Historical results include legacy Repair operations
which were contributed to GBW Railcar JV in July 2014
Quarterly Trends Revenue and Gross Margin % FY 16 Outlook
from the acquired railcar portfolio
percentage on leasing activities (excluding impact
gross margin is 51.2%)
manufactured railcars not yet on lease and the recent railcar portfolio acquisition
to be ~$30.0 million. Proceeds from sales of leased railcar equipment are expected to be ~$90.0 million(1)
railcar portfolio in 4Q16
3Q Business Conditions
($ in millions)
3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Revenues
$23.8 $23.4 $25.0 $124.1 $75.9
Gross Margin
$13.8 $14.5 $13.4 $18.1 $12.8
Gross Margin %
58.0% 62.0% 53.6% 14.6% 16.8%
Operating Margin %
45.4% 43.6% 39.8% 19.7% 10.9%
Net Capital Expenditures
($0.8) $1.3 ($40.2) ($37.6) ($0.8)
Lease Fleet Utilization
98.6% 98.6% 97.8% 95.4% 94.9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM 5/31/16
$ in Thousands Revenue Gross Margin
(1) Proceeds from sale of assets includes ~$37.6 million of equipment
transferred from Leased railcars for syndication to Equipment on
(1)
Quarterly Trends Revenue FY 16 Outlook
general repair operations
lower operating efficiencies
reflecting operating efficiencies and strong tank car recertification activity
3Q Business Conditions
($ in millions)
3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16
Revenues
$88.8 $95.2 $96.0 $97.7 $95.7
Earnings from
$0.2 $0.3 $2.4 $3.6 $3.0
Total assets
$230.1 $239.9 $245.7 $247.7 $255.4
$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
2015 LTM 5/31/16
$ in millions
(1)GBW Railcar Services reflected in the “Earnings from
Unconsolidated Affiliates” line on the income statement
All new tank cars carrying Class 3 flammables built after October 1, 2015 are required to meet DOT-117P (Performance) specification All tank cars built prior to October 1, 2015 are required to meet DOT-117R (Retrofit) specification (same as DOT-117P except 7/16” tank shell permitted) on prescribed 2-10 year schedule
Source: DOT PHMSA, GBX Internal
Greenbrier Annual Manufacturing Capacity = 7,000 – 8,000 tank cars GBW Annual Retrofit Capacity = 2,000 – 3,000 tank cars at 13 certified tank car shops, including at least 5 dedicated retrofit locations
Supplemental Disclosure Reconciliation of Net Earnings to Adjusted EBITDA
(In millions, unaudited)
Quarter Ending May 31, 2015
2015
2015
2016 May 31, 2016 Net earnings $70.3 $98.0 $98.7 $66.2 $59.5 Interest and foreign exchange 4.3 1.8 5.4 1.4 3.7 Income tax expense 30.8 35.9 44.7 25.7 22.5 Depreciation and amortization 10.9 11.9 13.0 14.9 13.8 Adjusted EBITDA $116.3 $147.6 $161.8 $108.2 $99.5
See slide 36 for definition of Adjusted EBITDA
Supplemental Disclosure Reconciliation of Net Earnings (loss) to Adjusted EBITDA
(In millions, unaudited)
Year Ending August 31, 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net earnings (loss) $8.3 $8.4 $61.2 ($5.4) $149.8 $265.3 Interest and foreign exchange 45.2 37.0 24.8 22.2 18.7 11.2 Income tax expense (benefit) (0.9) 3.5 32.4 25.1 72.4 112.2 Depreciation and amortization 37.5 38.3 42.4 41.4 40.4 45.1 Goodwill impairment
extinguishment (2.1) 15.7
(11.9)
1.5
$76.1 $102.9 $160.8 $162.9 $253.8 $433.8
See slide 36 for definition of Adjusted EBITDA
Year Ending August 31, 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net earnings (loss) attributable to Greenbrier $4.3 $6.5 $58.7 ($11.1) $111.9 $192.8 Goodwill impairment (after-tax)
(after-tax)
(after-tax) (1.3) 9.4
(11.9)
1.0
($8.9) $15.9 $58.7 $62.5 $99.3 $192.8 Weighted average diluted shares
20.2 26.5 33.7 34.2 34.2 33.3 Adjusted EPS ($0.44) $0.60 $1.91 $2.00 $3.07 $5.93 Supplemental Disclosure
Reconciliation of Net Earnings (loss) Attributable to Greenbrier to Adjusted Net Earnings (loss)
(In millions, except per share amounts, unaudited)
See slide 36 for definition of Adjusted EPS
Adjusted Net Earnings (loss), Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS are not financial measures under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). We define Adjusted Net Earnings (loss) as Net Earnings (loss) attributable to Greenbrier before goodwill impairment (after-tax), gain on contribution to GBW (after-tax), loss (gain) on debt extinguishment (after-tax) and special items (after-tax). We define Adjusted EBITDA as Net earnings (loss) before interest and foreign exchange, income tax expense (benefit), goodwill impairment, gain on contribution to GBW, loss (gain) on debt extinguishment, special items, depreciation and amortization. We define Adjusted EPS as Adjusted Net Earnings (loss) before interest and debt issuance costs (net of tax) on convertible notes divided by Weighted average diluted shares outstanding. We define Return on Invested Capital as Earnings from Operations less Cash paid for Income taxes, which is then annualized and divided by the sum of average Revolving notes plus Notes payable plus Total equity less Cash in excess of $40 million operating cash, which is averaged based on the quarterly ending balances. Adjusted Net Earnings (loss), Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS are performance measurement tools used by rail supply companies and Greenbrier. You should not consider Adjusted Net Earnings (loss), Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS in isolation or as a substitute for other financial statement data determined in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because Adjusted Net Earnings (loss), Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS are not measures of financial performance under GAAP and are susceptible to varying calculations, these measures presented may differ from and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
Investor Contact: Investor.Relations@gbrx.com Website: www.gbrx.com