NEEDHAM PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTION FY21-FY35 JANUARY 7, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NEEDHAM PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTION FY21-FY35 JANUARY 7, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 16, 2022 285 likes •443 views

NEEDHAM PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTION FY21-FY35 JANUARY 7, 2020 SUMMARY BEST RESULTS FY21-FY35 PreK-12 enrollment is projected to Needham Public Schools PreK-12 Total Enrollment by Level: remain relatively flat, declining

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NEEDHAM PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTION

FY21-FY35 JANUARY 7, 2020

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SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY21-FY35

  • PreK-12 enrollment is projected to

remain relatively flat, declining only slightly, at a rate of about (0.01%)/year (or 0.12% overall), to approximately 5,700 pupils by September 2034.

McKibben Cum Cum Cum Demographics Change Change Change Dec-19 Best Series 2019-20 2024-25 2034-35 FY20-35 FY20-25 FY25-35 Enrollment PreK 72 72 72

  • Gr K-5

2,586 2,584 2,428 (158) (2) (156) Gr 6-8 1,391 1,399 1,364 (27) 8 (35) Gr 9-12 1,658 1,838 1,836 178 180 (2) PreK-Total 5,707 5,893 5,700 (7) 186 (193)

Needham Public Schools PreK-12 Total Enrollment by Level: FY20-35

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SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY21-FY35

  • Although the long-term trend

continues to be for 'level enrollment,' the short term will continue to be characterized by a rapid increase in the school population, followed by a rapid decrease in population.

McKibben Cum Cum Cum Demographics Change Change Change Dec-19 Best Series 2019-20 2024-25 2034-35 FY20-35 FY20-25 FY25-35 Enrollment PreK 72 72 72

  • Gr K-5

2,586 2,584 2,428 (158) (2) (156) Gr 6-8 1,391 1,399 1,364 (27) 8 (35) Gr 9-12 1,658 1,838 1,836 178 180 (2) PreK-Total 5,707 5,893 5,700 (7) 186 (193)

Needham Public Schools PreK-12 Total Enrollment by Level: FY20-35

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SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY21-FY35

  • Over the next fifteen years,

elementary enrollment is projected to decline, driven by the Town’s declining birth rate, albeit more rapidly than previously predicted. Middle and high school enrollment will remain strong, as the existing classes of 400+ students cycle through the system.

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections by Level Dec '19 (Current) vs Prior Year Projections

Current Gr K-5 Current Gr 6-8 Current Gr 9-12 Prior Gr K-5 Prior Gr 6-8 Prior Gr 9-12
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SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY 2020/21

  • The enrollment projection for FY21 is

for an additional 64 students:

Level Inc/(Dec)

  • Elementary

48

  • Middle

(6)

  • High

22

Projected Enrollment 11/2019 11/2019 Inc/(Dec)

  • Vs. Current & Prior Projection

FY20 FY21 Ovr Prior Preschool 72 72

  • Broadmeadow

548 557 9 Eliot 412 425 13 Williams 518 533 15 Mitchell 484 481 (3) Newman 624 638 14 High Rock 499 430 (69) Pollard 892 955 63 NHS 1,658 1,680 22 Totals 5,707 5,771 64

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SUMMARY “HIGH” RESULTS FY21-FY35

  • Separate ‘high’ enrollment projections take possible future development into account.
  • The high projection includes a prospective 250-unit ‘overlay’ development, which could

generate 82 new students between FY26-31.

5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections Dec '19 (Current) Low - Best - High

Low Best High

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BROADMEADOW

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Broadmeadow

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ELIOT

200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Eliot

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WILLIAMS

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Sunita Williams

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MITCHELL

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Mitchell

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SLIDE 11

NEWMAN

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Newman

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SLIDE 12

HIGH ROCK

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: High Rock

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SLIDE 13

POLLARD

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Pollard

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NEEDHAM HIGH

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35

FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: NHS