Ne w T ra nsmissio n, Ca rb o n, a nd F inding a Pa th F o rwa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ne w T ra nsmissio n, Ca rb o n, a nd F inding a Pa th F

• rwa rd

E L PC April 2010

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Who is Cle a n L ine E ne rg y Pa rtne rs?

Cle a n L

ine E ne rg y Pa rtne rs (Cle a n L ine ) is a pro je c t de ve lo pme nt c o mpa ny fo c use d o n d e ve lo ping lo ng ha ul, hig h vo lta g e dire c t c urre nt (HVDC) tra nsmissio n line s a c ro ss the US c o nne c ting the b e st re ne wa b le re so urc e s in the c o untry with lo a d

Cle a n L

ine E ne rg y Pa rtne rs ha s fina nc ia l b a c king fro m ZBI Ve nture s (a sub sidia ry o f Ziff Bro the rs I nve stme nts), the Zilkha fa mily, fo und e rs

• f Ho rizo n Wind E

ne rg y, a nd the Cle a n L ine ma na g e me nt te a m.

Cle a n L

ine is 100% inde pe nde nt with no o wne rship tie s to po we r g e ne ra tio n c o mpa nie s o r inc umb e nt utilitie s

Uppe r Midwe st: Curre ntly de ve lo ping 500-600kV DC line fro m So uth

Da ko ta / Ne b ra ska to Chic a g o , ~$2 b illio n, 3500 MW o f c a pa c ity utilizing ~4000+ MW o f wind

3

Wha t I s the E nviro nme nta l Go a l?

80% Re duc tio n in CO2 b y 2050 Co nsiste nt with the I

nte rg o ve rnme nta l Pa ne l o n Clima te Cha ng e

Co nsiste nt with Ste rn Re po rt Co nsiste nt with UN F

ra me wo rk Co nve ntio n o n Clima te Cha ng e

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Ho w do we g e t the re ?

One E

xa mple : I llino is Clima te Cha ng e Ac tio n Pla n

Se e king just to g e t b a c k to 1990 le ve ls b y 2020 re q uire s

16% re duc tio n fro m 2007 le ve ls a nd 26% re duc tio n b y 2020 b a se d o n a b usine ss a s usua l

Sta te pro c e ss to fig ure o ut ho w to g e t the re fo und tha t if

yo u thro w in e ve rything fro m 25% b y 2025 RPS to E E PS to no till fa rming to L CF S impro ve d c urb side re c yc ling to the kitc he n sink, yo u still do n’ t g e t the re unle ss yo u a lso a dd Ca p a nd T ra de . So we ’ ve g o t to do it a ll.

T

ha t me a ns we a c tua lly ne e d to g e t to 25% re ne wa b le s b y 2025, a nd a lo t mo re a fte r tha t…

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Do We Ne e d T ra nsmissio n fo r Re ne wa b le s Go a ls?

T

wo Appro a c he s

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E a ste rn I nte rc o nne c t Onsho re Wind Re so urc e F a lls Off Co nside ra b ly

Best Worst

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With Se rio us I mplic a tio ns fo r the Co mpe titive ne ss o f Wind Po we r

OH IN IL IA SD/ND/NE

NCF Approx. Range by State

Assumes Onshore $2000/kw installed cost for wind

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U.S. De pt. o f E

ne rg y: “20% Wind b y 2030” re po rt

Ne e d 305GW b y 2030

L

BNL : Curre ntly 90% o f Sta te RE S c o mplia nc e is Wind

T

ha t is like ly to de c line

AWE

A: c urre ntly ~35GW o f wind o pe ra ting in U.S.

Built 10 GW in 2009 Built 8.3 GW in 2008

Ho w Muc h Re ne wa b le E ne rg y Do We Ne e d? Ho w Muc h Re ne wa b le E ne rg y Do We Ne e d? Ho w Muc h Do We Ha ve ? Ho w Muc h Do We Ha ve ?

Bla c k & Ve a tc h T ra nsmissio n Ana lysis

Pla nne d lo ng dista nc e line s = 70 GW o f wind b y 2015;

L

ike ly c a pa c ity c lo se r to 35 GW

E

xisting T ra nsmissio n Ca pa c ity e stima te d 18 GW

“L

• c a l” Wind e stima te d a t 3 GW a nnua lly (60 GW b y

2030)

Re q uire s minima l o r no tra nsmissio n upg ra de s

Co a l re tire me nts sho uld fre e up 10 GW o f tra nsmissio n

Ba se d o n c a lc ula ting wind re so urc e within 25 mile s o f re tiring

pla nts

Mo st o f this c a pa c ity is in la te r ye a rs (po st 2020) Ca rb o n ma y a c c e le ra te re tire me nts

Ne t Ga p F

• r 20% Go a l ~163 GW

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Ca rb o n a nd T ra nsmissio n: E WI T S

NRE

L : E a ste rn Wind I nte g ra tio n Study, 2010, inc lude d 5 sc e na rio s fo r mo de ling :

Sc e na rio 1: 20% wind, c a pturing hig h o n-sho re

c a pa c ity fa c to rs in the Gre a t Pla ins

Sc e na rio 2: 20% wind, “hyb rid”, so me Gre a t

Pla ins, so me o ffsho re

Sc e na rio 3: 20% wind, lo c a l wind a nd a g g re ssive

• ffsho re

Sc e na rio 4: 30% wind, a g g re ssive e ve rything ,

b uild it a ll

Re fe re nc e : e no ug h to me e t sta te RE

S g o a ls b a se d o n wha t is c urre ntly in q ue ue s (6% b y 2024).

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E WI T S: All Sc e na rio s Ne e d Ne w T ra nsmissio n

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E WI T S: K e y F inding s

Ne w T

ra nsmissio n Re q uire d fo r All Sc e na rio s,

inc luding the Re fe re nc e T

ra nsmissio n re duc e s the impa c ts o f the va ria b ility

• f wind, e ffe c tive ly a dding c a pa c ity va lue , a s

wind is b lo wing so me whe re

“Ca rb o n re duc tio ns in the thre e 20% wind

sc e na rio s do no t va ry b y muc h, indic a ting tha t wind displa c e s c o a l in a ll sc e na rio s a nd tha t c o a l g e ne ra tio n is no t sig nific a ntly e xpo rte d fro m the Midwe st to the e a ste rn Unite d Sta te s”

“Ca rb o n e missio ns a re re duc e d a t a n inc re a se d

ra te in the 30% wind sc e na rio a s mo re g a s g e ne ra tio n is use d to a c c o mmo da te wind va ria b ility.”

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E WI T S: Ca rb o n E missio ns

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E WI T S: Ca rb o n E missio ns

Why? Co a l do e s no t ra mp we ll I

f wind is g e tting PPAs to me e t na tio na l RE S, wind fills up the b a se ma rke ts a nd ne w line s

Only o ppo rtunitie s fo r c o a l a re pe a king ma rke ts

(whe n wind do e s no t b lo w), whic h the y a lre a dy ha ve o r the y’ d a lre a dy b e c lo se d

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Co nc lusio ns

I

f ne w tra nsmissio n is a c c o mpa nie d b y ma rke ts fo r wind, ne w tra nsmissio n do e s no t c re a te sig nific a nt ne w o ppo rtunitie s fo r c o a l

F

e de ra l le g isla tio n suppo rting tra nsmissio n no t po litic a lly via b le witho ut b ro a de r pa c ka g e suppo rting re ne wa b le s a nywa y

Oppo sing ne w tra nsmissio n will kill wind a nd

de ra il pro g re ss o n me e ting c a rb o n g o a ls

Othe r wa ys to re duc e c o a l witho ut

c o lla te ra l da ma g e to RE a re a va ila b le

F

ind yo ur pa th to mo rro w, b ut first: DO NO HARM

Privile g e d & Co nfide ntia l

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Thank You! Hans Detweiler hdetweiler@cleanlineenergy.com www.cleanlineenergy.com

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Hig h Wind Pe ne tra tio n Will Mo ve Pric e s o f E ne rg y

* 20% Wind Full Constrained Case - Annual Load Weighted LMP - Source: Joint Coordinated System Plan, 2009

Low LMP’s for wind in rich resource areas is driving down the value of wind already, making the financing of new projects especially challenging Transmission is required to move energy out of wind saturated markets where renewables will move LMPs

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Be st Wind Re so urc e s L

• c a te d in

the We a ke st T ra nsmissio n Syste ms