NATIONAL GAS DEVELOPMENT By: Ministry for National Development - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY

NATIONAL GAS DEVELOPMENT

By:

Ministry for National Development Planning Agency/ Head of The Bappenas

OUTLINE

INTRODUCTION: Projection of Energy and Gas Demand GAS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING : Program and Activity STRATEGY: What Should be Done

• A. INTRODUCTION

MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY

• A. INTRODUCTION

Primary Energy Demand Projection (million BOE) Year No Saving With Saving 2014 1890 1473

Projection of Energy Demand

2015 2034 1555 2016 2230 1672 2017 2445 1796 2018 2680 1928 2019 2938 2086

The acceleration of economic development demanding more energy supply

NOTES:

• Primary energy demand will increase

from 1,555 million boe (2015) to 2,086 million boe in 2019, or increasing 7.4% per year.

• The oil contribution in the energy

mixture will lightly decrease; gas and

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ENERGY MIXTURE 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Fuel Oil 39% 37% 36% 35% 34% Gas 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% Coal 29% 29% 28% 28% 28% Renweable Energy 10% 12% 13% 15% 16% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

mixture will lightly decrease; gas and coal does not much change; while the renewable energy will double so its share increase from 10% to 16%.

• whereas, oil production will likely

decreasing in the 5 years; gas export will still around 47% of the production; and (iii) the coal export amount to 76%.

• therefore, the utilization of gas and

coal policy should be revised so as to give priority for domestic customer;

The utilization of gas and coal will be prioritized to strengthen the domestic primary energy supply

INDICATOR 2014 (baseline) 2019* Enhancing the Energy Production :

• Oil (ribu BOE /day)

818 700

• 1. Gas utilization in domestic

market will be enhanced and will absorb gas from 54% to 64% of the total gas production in 2019;

• 2. Coal utilization in domestic
• Gas (ribu BOE/day)

1.224 1.295

• Coal (million Ton)

421 400 Domestic Utilization (DMO):

• Domestic Gas

53% 64%

• Domestic Coal

24% 60%

• 2. Coal utilization in domestic

market also will be enhanced and will absorb coal from 24% to 60% of the total coal production in 2019. This is not easy, but the government and all stakeholders should go in the same direction;

Domestic Gas Utilization will increase to 64% of domestic gas production, in 2019

Sumber: SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah)

• The domestic gas utilization in the last 10 years is increased significantly. About 25% of gas production is

consumed domestically in 2004, and increase to 54% in 2014

Gas production will decrease and gas field is in distance from the gas market

3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

bcf Production by region

1,000 2,000 NAD North Sumatera Riau Central and South Sumatera West Java Central Java East Java and Bali East Kalimantan South Sulawesi Central Sulawesi Papua South Maluku Domestic Demand

Gas demand will exceed gas domestic production capacity

The distribution of gas utilization today

Today, gas domestic utilization is dominated by industrial sector (19.2%), electricity (14%), and fertilizer (8.7%). Beside that, for oil lifting (4.5%), and the rest 6.9% for transportation, household, and domestic household, and domestic LPG-LNG; Fertilizer is the biggest gas consumer in industrial sector, almost half of the total gas consumption in industry sector; In the long run, industry and electricity sector will dominate the domestic gas utilization;

Sumber: SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah)

The industrial sector will growth and contribute more

• GDP growth mostly influenced by the growth in processing industry;
• The growth of processing industry is predicted excessing the GDP growth;
• To support such growth, in processing industry and the whole economic, will need energy

availability whether from coal, gas, and electricity;

Sumber: BPS, s.d. Tri-3 2014 (diolah)

The spread of 14 strategic industrial area outside Java

Industrial Area Teluk Bintuni Oil and Gas Industry and Fertilizer Industrial Area Teluk Bitung Agro Industry and Logistic Industrial Area Palu Rattan, Rubber, Cacao Industry, and Smelter Industrial Area Buli Smelter for Ferronikel, Stainless steel, and downstream stainless steel Industrial Area Batu Licin Steel Industry Industrial Area Landak Rubber Industry, CPO Industrial Area Ketapang Alumina Industry Industrial Area Kuala Tanjung Aluminium Industry, CPO Industrial Area Morowali Smelter Ferronikel, Stainless steel, dan downstream stainless steel Industrial Area Konawe Industri Smelter Ferronikel, Stainless steel, dan downstream stainless steel Industrial Area Bantaeng Smelter Ferronikel, Stainless steel, dan downstream stainless steel Industrial Area Tanggamus Maritime Industry and Logistic Industrial Area Sei Mangkei Processing Industry CPO Industrial Area Jorong Downstream of mineral (Bauksit), Palm Oil

The Spread of Special Economic Area (Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus) and the Indication of New Area

The Preliminary Indication of 35,000 MW Power Plant

14

Sumber: PT PLN (Persero), 2014

Power Plant development planning which need Gas supply

Sabang Sabang Sabang Sabang PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG, 4 4 4 4 SUMBAGUT PLTG/PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG 350 PLTGU/PLTMGU, 1000 SUMBAGTENG PLTG/PLTMG, 100 PLTGU/PLTMGU, 300 PLTGU, 250 SELAT PANJANG PLTMG, 15 TANJUNG BATU PLTMG, 15 NIAS PLTG/PLTMG, 25 KALTIM PLTG/PLTMG, 100 PLTGU, 35 KALTARA PLTMG, 31 PAPUA BARAT PLTMG, 40 HALMAHERA PLTMG, 5 SULUT PLTG/PLTMG, 250 PLTMG, 10 GORONTALO PLTG/PLTMG, 100 PLTG/PLTMG, 114 NATUNA NATUNA NATUNA NATUNA PLTMG, 25 25 25 25

• TB. KARIMUN
• TB. KARIMUN
• TB. KARIMUN
• TB. KARIMUN

PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/PLTMG, 40 40 40 40 TERNATE TIDORE TERNATE TIDORE TERNATE TIDORE TERNATE TIDORE PLTMG, 40 40 40 40

Sumber: PT PLN (Persero), 2014

PLTG/PLTMG, 25 BENGKALIS PLTMG, 18 SUMBAGSEL PLTG/PLTMG, 100 PLTGU/PLTMG, 200 DABO SINGKEP PLTMG, 15 BANGKA PLTG/PLTMG, 50 PLTG/PLTMG 100 KALSELTENG PLTG/PLTMG, 200 PLTGU/PLTMGU, 200 JAWA BAGIAN BARAT PLTGU, 2.350 PLTGU/PLTMG, 500 JAWA BAGIAN TIMUR PLTGU, 1.900 PLTMG, 4 PLTGU, 1600 SUMBAWA PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG, 100 LOMBOK PLTG/PLTMG, 50 PLTGU, 150 TIMOR PLTG/PLTMG, 30 PLTMG, 40 FLORES PLTMG, 60 SULSEL PLTG/PLTMG, 150 PLTGU, 900 PLTMG 20 AMBON PLTMG, 100 SERAM PLTMG, 20 PAPUA PLTMG, 165 TUAL PLTMG, 50 SULTENG PLTMG, 40 BAU-BAU PLTMG, 40 SULTRA PLTG/PLTMG, 50 BELITUNG BELITUNG BELITUNG BELITUNG PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/PLTMG, 30 30 30 30

The Mixture of National Primary Energy Target give important Role to Gas Energy

In the long run mixture of national primary energy, gas is the energy sources that its utilization will be optimalized; Gas market share will be maintained of about 22-24% (2010- 2050), or equal to the 37 million ton oil equivalent (2010) and becoming 235 million ton oil equivalent (2050); The dominant domestic gas consumer is industry and electricity The dominant domestic gas consumer is industry and electricity sector and generally located in Java Island, especially West and East Java; Gas producer mostly located in Kalimantan and Papua, while the gas consumer mostly located in Java and Sumatera, and next in

• Kalimantan. Hence, the domestic gas produced should be

transported to the gas shortage area such as Java and Sumatera.

• B. GAS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY

• B. GAS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

The Spread of Gas Reserve in 2013

Status Cadangan Cadangan per 1/1/2013 Produksi 2013 Cadangan POD 2013 Cadangan per 31/12/2013 Gas Asso + Gas non Asso (TSCF) 150,39 Triliun 3,12 Triliun 2,71 Triliun 149,97 Triliun

Sumber: SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah)

• Gas Reserve about 150 Trillion, national gas production is about 3 Trillion , hence the production may last

for 50 years in case no new reserve found and gas production is steady;

• 1. Enhancing the oil and gas exploration activity to the offshore and deep

water field, where the new and rich basin is located;

• 2. Mastery in the exploration and exploitation technology in offshore and

deep water activity through increasing the capacity and capability of human resources;

• 3. Simplification and improvement in the licensing, bureaucracy, and fiscal

incentives in the exploration and exploitation activity;

• 4. Setting of the secondary/tertiary recovery stage that already stated in the

The Policy for Enhancing Primary Energy Supply in National MidTerm Development Planning (RPJMN) 2015-2019

• 4. Setting of the secondary/tertiary recovery stage that already stated in the

Plan of Development (POD), especially for the new Production Sharing Contract, PSC;

• 5. Incentives to the secondary/tertiary recovery stage, such as split

calculation that will include additional expenses for research and feasibility for Enhanced Oil Recovery applied;

• 6. Cooperation of government and PSC contractor in the research,

feasibility study, and pilot project in applying the EOR;

Gas Distribution from Surplus to Shortage Gas Area needs Domestic Gas Transportation

Gas Supply in the form of LNG and Gas Piping

• The Gas Surplus Area : East Kalimantan , Papua, Natuna, and South Maluku
• The Gas Shortage Area: Java and Sumatera

Gas Pipe Network of Trans Jawa is vital to gas supply to West and East Java

• 1. Up-grading (revamping) the existing Oil Refinery and Gas Fuel to enhance its

capacity;

• 2. Give incentives in developing and/or up-grading Oil Refinery and Liquified

Petroleum Gas (LPG) installation;

• 3. Development of depo facility, storage, and stockpilling of crude oil, Oil Fuel, Gas

Fuel, and LPG. The purpose is enhancing the national operational and buffer

Policy of Gas Infrastructure Provision in National MidTerm Development Planning (RPJMN) 2015-2019 to Enhance Domestic Gas Utilization

Fuel, and LPG. The purpose is enhancing the national operational and buffer reserve and also to serve the remote and fisherman area;

• 4. The improvement of integrated national gas infrastructure planning as such the

gas pipe network and LNG infrastructure can easily transporting gas from the Gas Surplus Area to the Gas Shortage Area;

• 5. Development of gas distribution network in the urban area, for transportation

sector and household consumers;

• 6. Development of small scale gas power plant especially in the gas producer area;

The New Gas Field and Proposed Gas Infrastructure

IDD (1240 MMSCFD) TANGGUH T-3 (700 MMSCFD) DONGGI-MATINDOK (105 MMSCFD)

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BD-MDA-MBH (220 MMSCFD) E & NE JANGKRIK (450 MMSCFD) SENORO TOILI (310 MMSCFD) MASELA (449 MMSCFD)

Sumber: RPJMN 2015-2019 dan SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah)

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Rencana Rencana Rencana Rencana 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Domestic Gas Utilization 59% 61% 62% 63% 64%

• C. STRATEGY

MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY

• C. STRATEGY

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Gas can be utilized as (i) energy sources; (ii) raw materials of industry and fertilizer industry; and (iii) injection for oilfield in the enhanced oil recovery (EOR). All of the gas utilization will be around 64%

• f the total gas production, according to the RPJM 2015-2019. The strategy, inter alia, are:

STRATEGY INSTITUTION

Integrated gas energy provision and production from upstream to downstream in the industry, industrial area, power plant, etc as to guarantee domestic gas

• Min. Industry, Min.

ESDM, Local Gov.,

%

in the industry, industrial area, power plant, etc as to guarantee domestic gas supply; ESDM, Local Gov., SKK Migas, BPH Migas Enhancing and synchronization of gas transportation infrastructure development from Gas Surplus Area to the Gas Shortage Area;

• Min. ESDM, BPH

Migas, SKK Migas Re-formulating the national policy in gas infrastructure development so as to give state own enterprises more rule and function in installation of gas infrastructure.

• Min. ESDM, SKK

Migas, BPH Migas Development of small scale gas power plant in remote areas in the form of compressed natural gas (CNG) or LPG for gas machine power plant; PLN, Local Gov., Local Gov Own Enterprise BUMD

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STRATEGY INSTITUTION Development of gas fuel (BBG) facility for transportation and the enhancing of gas fuel utilization for mass transportation such as train, truck, bus, and other public transportation; Pertamina, PGN, Local Gov., BUMD Overcoming the LPG scarcity through enhancing the development of gas and LPG processing, by simplification of licensing and bureaucracy, Pertamina, Min. ESDM and LPG processing, by simplification of licensing and bureaucracy, including the agreement with Pertamina as LPG offtaker; Domestic gas production to be prioritized for domestic consumer, as stated in government regulation 79/2014 (the energy availability for national demand);

• Min. ESDM, SKK Migas

Domestic gas selling price should be adjusted so as resulted to similar government take compare to the exported gas. Then the gas could be more attractive if it is consumed domestically, since it will result to the comparative advantage of domestic industry having cheaper energy;

• Min. ESDM, SKK Migas,

BPH Migas

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STRATEGY INSTITUTION Re-visited domestic gas selling contracts according to the world gas prices. In the period where world gas prices decrease, then the domestic gas price is also adjusted to maintain the domestic industry competitiveness;

• Min. ESDM, SKK Migas,

BPH Migas Improving gas governance, including transparancy of gas selling and purchasing agreement, data and information of gas reserve, tender of gas

• Min. ESDM, SKK Migas,

BPH Migas. purchasing agreement, data and information of gas reserve, tender of gas infrastructure, transparancy for gas allocation, and transparancy for gas incentives; BPH Migas. Re-formulating the existing law and regulation so as to make investment in the upstream and downstream of oil and gas more interesting. Government.

THANK YOU TERIMA KASIH

MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY

TERIMA KASIH