MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY NATIONAL GAS DEVELOPMENT By: Ministry for National Development Planning Agency/ Head of The Bappenas
OUTLINE INTRODUCTION: Projection of Energy and Gas Demand GAS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING : Program and Activity STRATEGY: What Should be Done ������� �
MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY A. INTRODUCTION A. INTRODUCTION ������� �
Projection of Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand Projection (million BOE) With Year No Saving Saving 2014 1890 1473 2015 2034 1555 2016 2230 1672 2017 2445 1796 2018 2680 1928 2019 2938 2086
The acceleration of economic development demanding more energy supply NOTES: � Primary energy demand will increase Juta sbm from 1,555 million boe (2015) to 2,086 million boe in 2019, or increasing 7.4% per year. � The oil contribution in the energy mixture will lightly decrease; gas and mixture will lightly decrease; gas and coal does not much change; while the renewable energy will double so its share increase from 10% to 16%. � whereas, oil production will likely decreasing in the 5 years; gas export ENERGY MIXTURE 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 will still around 47% of the production; and (iii) the coal export amount to Fuel Oil 39% 37% 36% 35% 34% 76%. Gas 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% � therefore, the utilization of gas and Coal 29% 29% 28% 28% 28% coal policy should be revised so as to give priority for domestic customer; Renweable Energy 10% 12% 13% 15% 16% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% ������� �
The utilization of gas and coal will be prioritized to strengthen the domestic primary energy supply 1. Gas utilization in domestic 2014 INDICATOR 2019* market will be enhanced and (baseline) will absorb gas from 54% to Enhancing the Energy Production : 64% of the total gas production in 2019; - Oil (ribu BOE /day) 818 700 2. Coal utilization in domestic 2. Coal utilization in domestic market also will be enhanced - Gas (ribu BOE/day) 1.224 1.295 and will absorb coal from - Coal (million Ton) 421 400 24% to 60% of the total coal Domestic Utilization production in 2019. (DMO): This is not easy, but the government and all - Domestic Gas 53% 64% stakeholders should go in the - Domestic Coal 24% 60% same direction;
Domestic Gas Utilization will increase to 64% of domestic gas production, in 2019 Sumber: SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah) � The domestic gas utilization in the last 10 years is increased significantly. About 25% of gas production is consumed domestically in 2004, and increase to 54% in 2014 ������� �
Gas production will decrease and gas field is in distance from the gas market Production by region 6,000 bcf 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 NAD North Sumatera Riau Central and South Sumatera West Java Central Java East Java and Bali East Kalimantan South Sulawesi Central Sulawesi Papua South Maluku Domestic Demand ������� �
Gas demand will exceed gas domestic production capacity ������� �
The distribution of gas utilization today � Today, gas domestic utilization is dominated by industrial sector (19.2%), electricity (14%), and fertilizer (8.7%). Beside that, for oil lifting (4.5%), and the rest 6.9% for transportation, household, and domestic household, and domestic LPG-LNG; � Fertilizer is the biggest gas consumer in industrial sector, almost half of the total gas consumption in industry sector; � In the long run, industry and electricity sector will dominate the domestic gas utilization; Sumber: SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah) ������� ��
The industrial sector will growth and contribute more Sumber: BPS, s.d. Tri-3 2014 (diolah) � GDP growth mostly influenced by the growth in processing industry; � The growth of processing industry is predicted excessing the GDP growth; � To support such growth, in processing industry and the whole economic, will need energy availability whether from coal, gas, and electricity; ������� ��
The spread of 14 strategic industrial area outside Java Industrial Area Industrial Area Palu Industrial Area Buli Industrial Area Landak Industrial Area Teluk Bitung Kuala Tanjung Rattan, Rubber, Cacao Smelter for Ferronikel, Rubber Industry, CPO Agro Industry and Logistic Industry, and Smelter Stainless steel , and Aluminium Industry, CPO downstream stainless steel Industrial Area Batu Licin Industrial Area Ketapang Industrial Area Steel Industry Teluk Bintuni Alumina Industry Oil and Gas Industry and Fertilizer Industrial Area Sei Mangkei Processing Industry CPO Industrial Area Morowali Industrial Area Tanggamus Smelter Ferronikel, Maritime Industry and Stainless steel , dan Logistic downstream stainless steel Industrial Area Industrial Area Bantaeng Industrial Area Jorong Konawe Smelter Ferronikel, Downstream of mineral Stainless steel , dan Industri Smelter Ferronikel, (Bauksit), Palm Oil downstream stainless steel Stainless steel , dan downstream stainless steel ������� ��
The Spread of Special Economic Area (Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus) and the Indication of New Area ������� ��
The Preliminary Indication of 35,000 MW Power Plant 14 Sumber: PT PLN (Persero), 2014
Power Plant development planning which need Gas supply NATUNA NATUNA TERNATE TIDORE TERNATE TIDORE Sabang Sabang SUMBAGUT NATUNA NATUNA TERNATE TIDORE TERNATE TIDORE Sabang Sabang PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG , 4 PLTMG 4 4 4 PLTG/ PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG 350 PLTMG, 25 25 25 25 PLTMG, 40 40 40 40 KALTARA PLTGU/PLTMGU, 1000 PLTMG, 31 SUMBAGTENG PLTG/PLTMG, 100 HALMAHERA PLTGU/PLTMGU, 300 PLTMG, 5 SULUT PLTGU, 250 PLTG/PLTMG, 250 GORONTALO KALTIM PLTMG, 10 PLTG/PLTMG, 100 PLTG/PLTMG, 100 SELAT PANJANG PLTG/PLTMG, 114 PAPUA BARAT PLTGU, 35 PLTMG, 15 PLTMG, 40 TANJUNG BATU PLTMG, 15 TB. KARIMUN TB. KARIMUN TB. KARIMUN TB. KARIMUN PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTMG, NIAS 40 40 40 40 PLTG/PLTMG, 25 PLTG/PLTMG, 25 BELITUNG BELITUNG BELITUNG BELITUNG AMBON PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTG/ PLTMG, PLTMG, 100 DABO SINGKEP PLTMG, 15 30 30 30 30 BENGKALIS PLTMG, 18 KALSELTENG PLTG/PLTMG, 200 SULSEL BANGKA SULTENG PLTGU/PLTMGU, 200 PLTG/PLTMG, PLTG/PLTMG, 50 PLTMG, 40 150 PLTG/PLTMG 100 SERAM SUMBAGSEL PLTGU, 900 PLTMG, 20 PLTG/PLTMG, 100 PLTMG 20 BAU-BAU PAPUA PLTGU/PLTMG, 200 PLTMG, 40 PLTMG, 165 SUMBAWA PLTMG PLTMG PLTMG , 100 PLTMG SULTRA TUAL PLTG/PLTMG, 50 PLTMG, 50 FLORES PLTMG, 60 JAWA BAGIAN BARAT PLTGU, 2.350 JAWA BAGIAN TIMUR PLTGU/PLTMG, 500 LOMBOK TIMOR PLTGU, 1.900 PLTG/PLTMG, 50 PLTG/PLTMG, 30 PLTMG, 4 PLTGU, 150 PLTMG, 40 PLTGU, 1600 Sumber: PT PLN (Persero), 2014 ������� ��
The Mixture of National Primary Energy Target give important Role to Gas Energy � In the long run mixture of national primary energy, gas is the energy sources that its utilization will be optimalized; � Gas market share will be maintained of about 22-24% (2010- 2050), or equal to the 37 million ton oil equivalent (2010) and becoming 235 million ton oil equivalent (2050); � The dominant domestic gas consumer is industry and electricity � The dominant domestic gas consumer is industry and electricity sector and generally located in Java Island, especially West and East Java; � Gas producer mostly located in Kalimantan and Papua, while the gas consumer mostly located in Java and Sumatera, and next in Kalimantan. Hence, the domestic gas produced should be transported to the gas shortage area such as Java and Sumatera. ������� ��
MINISTRY FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING / NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AGENCY B. GAS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING B. GAS DEVELOPMENT PLANNING ������� ��
The Spread of Gas Reserve in 2013 Cadangan per Cadangan per Status Cadangan Produksi 2013 Cadangan POD 2013 1/1/2013 31/12/2013 Gas Asso + Gas non 150,39 Triliun 3,12 Triliun 2,71 Triliun 149,97 Triliun Asso (TSCF) Sumber: SKK Migas, 2014 (diolah) � Gas Reserve about 150 Trillion, national gas production is about 3 Trillion , hence the production may last for 50 years in case no new reserve found and gas production is steady; ������� ��
The Policy for Enhancing Primary Energy Supply in National MidTerm Development Planning (RPJMN) 2015-2019 1. Enhancing the oil and gas exploration activity to the offshore and deep water field, where the new and rich basin is located; 2. Mastery in the exploration and exploitation technology in offshore and deep water activity through increasing the capacity and capability of human resources; 3. Simplification and improvement in the licensing, bureaucracy, and fiscal incentives in the exploration and exploitation activity; 4. Setting of the secondary / tertiary recovery stage that already stated in the 4. Setting of the secondary / tertiary recovery stage that already stated in the Plan of Development (POD), especially for the new Production Sharing Contract, P SC; 5. Incentives to the secondary / tertiary recovery stage, such as split calculation that will include additional expenses for research and feasibility for Enhanced Oil Recovery applied; 6. Cooperation of government and PSC contractor in the research, feasibility study, and pilot project in applying the EOR;
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