Nat Nation ional al Long Long T Ter erm m Perspe Per - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nat Nation ional al Long Long T Ter erm m Per Perspe spectives ctives Stu Studie dies: s: Les Lessons sons Lear Learnt nt

OUTLINE

• 1. NLTPS: the methodological approach/Long Term

Strategic Thinking Process

• 2. Lessons Learnt

• In today's world the only certainty is the rapidity of change and the high number of

uncertainties in all areas, particularly in technology sector.

• We must not be focused only in managing the present because the future will be

determined by our actions and inactions of today. It is therefore crucial before making decisions, that we think ahead, we commit ourselves in the analysis of "what if" (what will happen if ...) and explore the different possible futures (scenarios).

• It is important to have a national wide project, an agenda for society in which people

identify that they are part of this and want to make their daily lives. This commitment and "buy-in" for a national agenda are crucial.

• A foresight exercise a process of reflection and a key instrument for decision making
• Development is not a matter of poverty management but of producing wealth!

Why a Foresight Exercise is needed

African elites do not appropriate their problems which caused them to lose an opportunity to learn with the problems they face in their development process. A Foresight exercise study allows us to take ownership of our problems, identify them and find solutions. This process of appropriation, identification and solution of our problems is also a learning process. This is the only way to train ourselves to find solutions to our development problems and to learn how to innovate, to find African solutions, to build and improve our ability to lead the process of national transformation. Therefore, we can't outsource our development to external partners. We must take over the management of our national development program. Our "leadership" should take the lead in any foresight exercise to build the future

Why a Foresight Exercise is needed

Analyze the Operating environment

(Where are we?)

• Data gathering and analysis
• SWOT Analysis
• Key factors that will shape the

future

• Key uncertainties/ « what if »
• Scenarios (exploratory)

Formulate Vision

Where do we go from here?

• Identify key strategic issues
• Formulate strategic options

for each strategic issues

• Strategic focus / Key

Priorities

Strategic Analysis

How did we get here? Implementation What is the role

• f each and

every one of us as citizens?

• Strategic Plans /

Projects

• Implementation
• Evaluation &

Monitoring

Long Term Strategic Thinking Process

There are times in the history of a nation when the people and their leaders should ask questions about the future of the Nation: Where are we? Where do we go from here? How do we get there? What is the role of each and every one

• f us as citizens?

THE CONTEXT OF STRATEGY

Vision/ Goals Opportunities/ Threats Strengths/ Weaknesses

What are the possibilities and constraints in the external environment? What are we capable of doing? Where do we want to go?

Strategic Options Evaluation

Risks:

• Uncertainties
• Technical,
• Competitive,

Political Impact/Rewards

• Economic
• Social
• Environmental

Feasibility:

• Resources
• Change

Feasibility

• Capabilities

Strategic Focus/Key Priorities Actions plans/Projects Implementation

Strategy Formulation Process

Strategic Issue 1 Strategic Issue 2 Strategic Issue 5

Foresight exercise is about changing mindset: Not enough for consultants to do the work and handover the results to the stakeholders African elites have delegated their responsibilities as development promoter to donors and consulting firms. Nowadays the question of ownership of the foresight exercise at all the level, public and private actors mainly by political elites, is central The effective ownership of the exercise by the political elite is very important. We had the tendency to believe that we just simply to undertake a foresight exercise and handover it the Cabinet and the technicians to implement it. This does not work. The experience of NLTPS shows that it is essential that the country's leadership be part of the process. It is about building the future and they must be committed and should lead the process. They must help to develop and select the transformation agenda and lead the people and the state apparatus to sustain and build the future. The articulation between the technical level and the political level is also important But if we continue to let the prospective to technicians ... so we'll stay in failure

NLTPS Exercises: Lessons Learnt

• A prospective study is necessary but is not sufficient
• The people with the power to act must be engaged
• Participatory: engaging all the stakeholders
• Strategic

rather than tactical (Emphasis

• n

Transformation)

• Not simply a straightforward exercise
• Readiness to change
• Think the unthinkable and open our mind
• Creativity is a must
• Effective Strategy:
• Clear and decisive objectives
• Internal consistency
• Motivational impact
• Compatibility with the environment
• Appropriate in the light of resources
• Flexibility
• Risk
• End the exercise is the beginning
• Building a constituency for change
• Communicating

NLTPS: LESSONS LEARNT

• Ability to

quickly respond to change and reform

• The Development management

team (Government, private sector, civil society) have to change

• We must be willing to change

and to experiment and try things small scale to see if it works in this case and generalize. The planning system must be flexible and able to change to adapt when circumstances require. For this it is important to establish an M & E system that tracks the decisions and changes in underlying assumptions.

• We must be ambitious in formulating our vision i.e. choosing where we want to go as a nation, and

more importantly, we must be committed to making it happen. Driving a foresight exercise involves an emotional commitment

• It is important in the implementation of prospective studies to make progress (Quick wins) to show

that one is in the right direction. This leads to a wider adherence to the strategy proposed by the prospective study.

• In a foresight exercise the problem of social cohesion, and the different development dynamics of

regions has to be taken in account,

NLTPS Exercices: Lessons Learnt

• How the leadership responded to the NLTPS reports
• Mauritius: we must avoid the bad scenario to happen
• Guinea-Bissau: good participation of the elite but no change of behavior

in managing the country

• Cote d’Ivoire: collective disbelief: “this can not happen in CI
• Zimbabwe: Ostrich approach rewrite the study
• Cabo Verde: first reaction, re-write the future by one consultant. Things

changed completely when a new leadership engage the Government for change

Foresight Exercises: Lessons Learnt

T H A N K Y O U

OBRIGADO

Don’t let the future happen

Building the future desired by all, TODAY